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Hunter Cutting

Warmest Spring on record for Washington DC - 0 views

  • ASTRONOMICAL SPRING FOR 2010...DEFINED AS MARCH 20 TO JUNE 20 IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...WAS THE WARMEST ON RECORD AT BOTH WASHINGTON NATIONAL DC AND WASHINGTON DULLES. AT WASHINGTON DC...THE AVERAGE SPRING TEMPERATURE OF 66.7 DEGREES BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 66.3 DEGREES SET IN 1991. AT DULLES...THE AVERAGE SPRING TEMPERATURE OF 64.5 DEGREES BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 63.1 DEGREES SET IN 1991. OFFICIAL CLIMATE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871 FOR WASHINGTON DC AND 1962 FOR DULLES.
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    National Weather Service announcment
Hunter Cutting

Eastern U.S. heat wave fits climate trend - 0 views

  • Having just completed the warmest spring on record, Washington, DC, and other cities in the eastern United States are enduring a record-breaking heat wave that is consistent with climate change. Last week’s temperatures in Washington D.C. broke a century-old record and forecasters expect this month to be the hottest June on record for the area. These patterns fit the long-term trends of more frequent heat waves driven by climate change
  • Characteristics of the current heat wave in the Washington, DC area include record daytime highs, record high overnight lows, and the long string of days above 90 degrees, all of which are consistent with the trends in the U.S. driven by climate change. The back-to-back heat waves experienced in Philadelphia this June also reflect the long-term global warming trend, as do the record-breaking average temperatures witnessed this past spring in Washington D.C., Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey.
Hunter Cutting

Storm surge, sea level rise map for Washington DC - 0 views

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    On-line maps illustrating the combined effect of storm surge and higher sea levels in the Chesapeake Bay, including Washington DC. The long-term climate trend is toward strong hurricanes which generate stronger storm surge.
Hunter Cutting

Big snow storms not inconsistent with - and may be amplified by - a warming planet - 0 views

  • there was a detailed study of “the relationships of the storm frequencies to seasonal temperature and precipitation conditions” for the years “1901–2000 using data from 1222 stations across the United States.”  The 2006 study, “Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States” (Changnon, Changnon, and Karl [of National Climatic Data Center], 2006) found we are seeing more northern snow storms and that we get more snow storms in warmer years: The temporal distribution of snowstorms exhibited wide fluctuations during 1901–2000, with downward 100-yr trends in the lower Midwest, South, and West Coast. Upward trends occurred in the upper Midwest, East, and Northeast, and the national trend for 1901–2000 was upward, corresponding to trends in strong cyclonic activity…..
  • Results for the November–December period showed that most of the United States had experienced 61%– 80% of the storms in warmer-than-normal years. Assessment of the January–February temperature conditions again showed that most of the United States had 71%–80% of their snowstorms in warmer-than-normal years. In the March–April season 61%–80% of all snowstorms in the central and southern United States had occurred in warmer-than-normal years…. Thus, these comparative results reveal that a future with wetter and warmer winters, which is one outcome expected (National Assessment Synthesis Team 2001), will bring more snowstorms than in 1901–2000. Agee (1991) found that long-term warming trends in the United States were associated with increasing cyclonic activity in North America, further indicating that a warmer future climate will generate more winter storms.
  • the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) U.S. Climate Impacts Report from 2009, which reviewed the literature and concluded: Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent.
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  • Large-scale storm systems are the dominant weather phenomenon during the cold season in the United States. Although the analysis of these storms is complicated by a relatively short length of most observational records and by the highly variable nature of strong storms, some clear patterns have emerged.112 [Kunkel et al., 2008] Storm tracks have shifted northward over the last 50 years as evidenced by a decrease in the frequency of storms in mid-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, while high-latitude activity has increased. There is also evidence of an increase in the intensity of storms in both the mid- and high-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, with greater confidence in the increases occurring in high latitudes.112 [Kunkel et al., 2008] The northward shift is projected to continue, and strong cold season storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent, with greater wind speeds and more extreme wave heights.68 [Gutowski et al, 2008]
  • The northward shift in storm tracks is reflected in regional changes in the frequency of snowstorms. The South and lower Midwest saw reduced snowstorm frequency during the last century. In contrast, the Northeast and upper Midwest saw increases in snowstorms, although considerable decade-to-decade variations were present in all regions, influenced, for example, by the frequency of El Niño events.112 [Kunkel et al., 2008]
  • Then we have this apparently as yet unpublished research presented by Dr James Overland of the NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory at the recent International Polar Year Oslo Science Conference (IPY-OSC) where he was chairing “a session on polar climate feedbacks, amplification and teleconnections, including impacts on mid-latitudes.” “Cold and snowy winters will be the rule, rather than the exception,” says Dr James Overland…. Continued rapid loss of sea ice will be an important driver of major change in the world’s climate system in the years to come…. “While the emerging impact of greenhouse gases is an important factor in the changing Arctic, what was not fully recognised until now is that a combination of an unusual warm period due to natural variability, loss of sea ice reflectivity, ocean heat storage and changing wind patterns working together has disrupted the memory and stability of the Arctic climate system, resulting in greater ice loss than earlier climate models predicted,” says Dr Overland. “The exceptional cold and snowy winter of 2009-2010 in Europe, eastern Asia and eastern North America is connected to unique physical processes in the Arctic,” he says.
  • Even though these storms occurred during warmest winter on record, I think the best way to talk about it until Overland publishes his work is the way NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth did on NPR (audio here): RENEE MONTAGNE, host:  With snow blanketing much of the country, the topic of global warming has become the butt of jokes. Climate skeptics built an igloo in Washington, D.C. during last weeks storm and dedicated it to former Vice President Al Gore, who’s become the public face of climate change. There was also a YouTube video called “12 Inches of Global Warming” that showed snowplows driving through a blizzard.For scientists who study the climate, it’s all a bit much. As NPRs Christopher Joyce reports, they’re trying to dig out. CHRISTOPHER JOYCE: Snowed-in Washington is where much of the political debate over climate change happens. So it did not go unnoticed when a Washington think-tank that advocates climate action had to postpone a climate meeting last week because of inclement weather. That kind of irony isnt lost on climate scientists. Most don’t see a contradiction between a warming world and lots of snow. Heres Kevin Trenberth, a prominent climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado. Mr. KEVIN TRENBERTH (Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research): The fact that the oceans are warmer now than they were, say, 30 years ago, means there’s about, on average, 4 percent more water vapor lurking around over the oceans than there was, say, in the 1970s. JOYCE: Warmer water means more water vapor rises up into the air. And what goes up, must come down. Mr. TRENBERTH: So one of the consequences of a warming ocean near a coastline like the East Coast and Washington, D.C., for instance, is that you can get dumped on with more snow, partly as a consequence of global warming. JOYCE: And Trenberth notes that you don’t need very cold temperatures to get big snow. In fact, when the mercury drops too low, it may be too cold to snow. There’s something else fiddling with the weather this year: a strong El Nino. That’s the weather pattern that, every few years, raises itself up out of the western Pacific Ocean and blows east to the Americas. It brings heavy rains and storms to California and the South and Southeast. It also pushes high-altitude jet streams farther south, which brings colder air with them. Trenberth also says El Nino can lock in weather patterns like a meteorological highway, so that storms keep coming down the same track. True, those storms have been big ones – record breakers. But meteorologist Jeff Masters, with the Web site Weather Underground, says it’s average temperatures — not snowfall — that really measure climate change. There’s more water vapor lurking around the oceans, and whatever the proximate cause of any one snow storm, there is little doubt that global warming means the overwhelming majority of East Coast storms will be sweeping in more moisture and dumping it on the ground.
Hunter Cutting

Records fall again in U.S. East Coast heat wave - 0 views

  • The eastern U.S. cooked for another day Wednesday as unrelenting heat again sent thermometers past 100 degrees in urban "heat islands," buckled roads, slowed trains and pushed utilities toward the limit of the electrical grid's capacity.
  • Records fall again in East as heat swelters on
  • Philadelphia hit 100 degrees for second straight day, breaking a record of 98 degrees set in 1999. Baltimore hit 100 for the third straight day and Newark, N.J., hit triple digits for the fourth straight day. New York's Central Park was at 99 degrees at 2 p.m.
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  • Scattered power outages affected customers up and down the coast and usage approached record
  • levels. In the Washington, D.C., area, nearly 1,000 customers were without power Wednesday, while New Jersey's largest utility, Public Service Electric & Gas, reported about 6,300 customers without power. Consolidated Edison in New York said it was working to restore power to about 6,300 customers, down from outages to 18,700 customers Tuesday.
  • The heat also forced nursing homes with power problems to evacuate and buckled highways near Albany and in the Philadelphia area. On New York's Long Island, a radio station was distributing free bottled water to day laborers, while human services workers in Pittsburgh were doing the same for the homeless there.
  • Transportation officials cut the speed of commuter trains in suburban Washington, D.C., and New York when the tracks got too hot. Extreme heat can cause welded rails to bend under pressure. Some New Jersey trains were canceled and rail-riders were advised to expect delays.
  • In Park Ridge, N.J., police evacuated a nursing home and rehabilitation center after an electrical line burned out Tuesday evening. In Maryland, health officials moved all 150 residents out of a Baltimore nursing home whose operators didn't report a broken air conditioner. The state learned of the home's troubles when a resident called 911 Tuesday
  • Residents of two Rhode Island beach towns, Narragansett and South Kingstown, were hit with an added layer of inconvenience: They were banned from using water outdoors and were asked to boil and cool their water before using it. The high temperatures combined with the busy holiday weekend for tourists created higher-than-expected demand, causing water pressure to drop and increasing the chance of contamination.
  • With people cranking up their air conditioners Wednesday, Valley Forge, Pa.-based PJM Interconnection — which operates the largest electrical grid in the U.S. — urged users to conserve electricity as much as possible, especially in the peak afternoon hours. PJM's grid covers about 51 million people in 13 states and the District of Columbia.
  • Meteorologists in some places began calling the current hot stretch a heat wave, defined in the Northeast as three consecutive days of temperatures of 90 or above.
Hunter Cutting

Heat waves on U.S. East Coast map to global warming - 0 views

  • As she did for winter 2010, this summer Mother Nature has truly outdone herself, this time by brewing up a miserable combination of heat and humidity that has enveloped not only the northeastern U.S., but much of the Northern Hemisphere as well. As Ian Livingston reported on Saturday, July was the warmest single calendar month of all time in Washington (tied with July 1993). The warmest day in the city was July 7th, when the temperature soared to 102 degrees Fahrenheit at Reagan National Airport. The day before, the temperature rose to a sweltering 105 F at Baltimore-Washington International Airport. In total, Washingtonians sweated through 21 July days during which temperatures exceeded 90 degrees. Baltimore set a new record for the average daily high temperature, which was 92.5 degrees, beating July 1988's 91.9 degrees. New York City and Philadelphia experienced their second-warmest months since records began in the late 1800s. New York recorded an average monthly temperature of 81.3 degrees, which was 4.8 degrees above the July average. The warmest July on record there occurred in 1999, when the average temperature was 81.4 degrees.
  • Although long-term global climate change doesn't directly cause a particular heat wave, the pronounced warming trend in global average temperatures during the past century has increased the odds of more frequent and severe heat waves. For example, scientists have partially attributed the deadly 2003 European heat wave, which killed tens of thousands, to manmade climate change.
Hunter Cutting

Russia Heat Wave Statistics Staggers the Imagination - 0 views

  • Russia Heat Wave Statistics Staggers the Imagination
  • IT IS AS IF THE RUSSIAN HEARTLAND SHIFTED ONE THOUSAND MILES SOUTH That the month of July 2010 was hot in Moscow could rank among the foremost understatements in the world of "weather speak." For one thing, the highest temperature on record (in roughly 130 years of Moscow weather records) was reached on July 29, this being 38.2 C, or 100.8 F. This broke the previous high mark of 37.5 C set only three days earlier, on July 26. This was nearly tied on July 28. All of this is extraordinary, given that the normal high for this, the hottest time of year, is only 23 C. Moreover, July 2010 was the hottest July in the climate record of Moscow, as well as the hottest month overall. Thanks to Loepa, writing from Brasil (of all places!), I have it that the old record for warmest month in Moscow was 23.3 C, or 73.9 F, versus normal of about 17 C, or 63 C. What about this July? How about 26.1 C, or 79.0 F. So that is nearly a 3 C (and more than 5 F) gap. It is as if Moscow were shifted a thousand miles to the south. For perspective, the normal average temperature of July in Washington, D.C., is 26.2 C, or 79.2 F, according to the ADC database. Moscow has thus experienced roughly the weather (less the usual steamy humidity and thunderstorms) that is normally expected in the city of Washington, D.C., which lies 1,890 km/1,170 miles nearer to the equator! ST. PETERSBURG HAS ALSO ENDURED EXTREME TEMPERATURES I do not have full climate records for St. Petersburg, but I do know about July 2010. The AccuWeather.Com database shows a monthly mean temperature of 24.2 C, or 75.5 F. Normal mean July temperature is 15.2 C, or 59.4 F. Yes, that is even higher above normal than was Moscow. The city of Indianapolis has a normal mean July temperature of 24.2 C. Yet Indianapolis is 2,250 km/1,400 miles nearer to the equator than St. Petersburg. I do not say that this is a rigorous "apples-to-apples" comparison. Rather, it is to get a rough idea of how skewed the weather has been this summer in the Russian heartland. AND IT IS NOT OVER YET... As of this writing, the highest temperature thus far on Wednesday, Aug. 4, is 36.6 C, or 98 F, in Moscow. St. Petersburg has reached 33.3 C, or 92 F. Searing heat has invaded eastern Belarus, where readings to 37 C or 38 C have been reached. In the Ukraine, the worst of the heat has backed westward to Kiev, where August 4 has become the hottest day (37 C to 38 C, or near 100 F) of the summer thus far. And near 40 C yet again in Luhansk. The GFS numerical forecast model shows widespread extreme high temperature departure, for at least another week, throughout European Russia along with stretches of her western neighbors.
Hunter Cutting

Arctic sea ice at record low volume for March (2010) - 0 views

  • Total Arctic Ice Volume for March 2010 is 20,300 km^3, the lowest over the 1979-2009 period and 38% below the 1979 maximum. September Ice Volume was lowest in 2009 at 5,800 km^3 or 67% below its 1979 maximum.
Hunter Cutting

Climate Change Beginning to Disrupt Agriculture in the U.S: - 0 views

  • Climate Change Is Beginning to Disrupt Agriculture
  • Climate variability has already affected rains, droughts and temperatures in several parts of the United States, said Cynthia Rosenzweig, a senior research scientist with NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. "We are already seeing climate change." "We are seeing the expansion of drying," said Rosenzweig, as she brought up a slide showing precipitation measurements across the United States. The measurements, comparing values from 1958 through 2008, showed significant reductions in rainfall across large portions of the Northwest and Southeast. Idaho, Washington, Montana, Georgia and Florida had some of the most drastic changes in rainfall on the map. However, the opposite is not good either, she said, adding that increased soil moisture in some areas could potentially harbor insects and other pests. And, in general, "crops do not like to have their feet wet." Aside from concerns about rainfall, local temperature is also extremely important for crop performance. The reproductive development in many important grains is a process sensitive to temperature, said Paul Gepts, a professor of agronomy at the University of California, Davis. Some plants need cold winters One of the potential side effects of climate change is a trend toward milder winters in some regions. Vital plants, Gepts said, require a cold winter in order to properly develop their seeds for the next season. Rosenzweig agreed. Heat waves, at odd times of the year, affect the proper development of proteins within corn kernels, she said. "It is like scrambling eggs." Gepts also presented a number of well-known strategies for mitigating some of the possible economic effects of climate change on agriculture. Aside from breeding plants to be more drought-, heat- and pest-resistant, he also suggested varying the types of crops maintained on a particular site on the basis of environmental suitability.
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    Scientific American:
Hunter Cutting

World on Track for Warmest Year on Record - 0 views

  • The current year may become the warmest on record, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientist. Temperature trends across the U.S. and around the world have been among the warmest on record, said David Easterling, a climatologist with NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina.
  • The combined land and ocean temperatures around the world were 1.22 degrees warmer than the 20th-century average, according to NOAA records. Since 1975, global temperatures have been rising and since 1960 the number of heat waves has been increasing, Easterling said
  • “The current spate of heat waves could be a harbinger of things to come.”
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  • Much of the U.S. Northeast has been gripped by a heat wave that broke temperature records in New York, Washington and Baltimore and brought 100 degrees or more to Newark four days in a row.
  • Energy use has risen and utilities have asked customers to curb their use to conserve power
Hunter Cutting

Arctic Sea Ice Volume at Record Low for May - 0 views

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    A graph from the Polar Science Center charting the decline trend of Arctic Sea Ice Volume from 1980 through May, 30, 2010, depicting a record-breaking low for the month of May.
Hunter Cutting

Hood Canal acidifying - 0 views

  • Unusually high acid readings were measured in the deep waters of southern Hood Canal, according to Richard Feeley, director of the Ocean Acidification Program at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. Increased acidity appears to be caused by increased carbon dioxide working its way from the atmosphere into the ocean, as well as the decomposition of organic matter in local waters. “Our calculations suggest that ocean acidification can account for a significant part of the pH decrease in this region,” said Feeley, whose laboratory is operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
  • A research team found that ocean acidification caused by climate change accounts for 24 to 49 percent of the increased acidity in Hood Canal relative to pre-industrial times. The remainder of the pH shift occurs as a result of decomposition of organic material. Ocean effects provide the greatest contribution — 49 percent of the change — in winter when the rate of decomposition slows.
  • Increasing ocean acidity has been linked to the deaths of free-swimming oyster larvae at oyster hatcheries on the Oregon Coast, Newton said, and something similar may be happening at hatcheries on Hood Canal. Bill Dewey of Taylor Shellfish Farms, which operates an oyster hatchery on Dabob Bay, said oyster larvae production dropped by 60 percent in 2008 and 80 percent last year. It is too early to know how things will turn out this year, he said.
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  • Some early evidence suggests that more acidic water in Hood Canal is brought to the surface during storms, Dewey said. Unlike the ocean hatcheries, where acidity is linked directly to oyster mortality, there may be other factors at play in Hood Canal. “We have some very good scientists working on this,” he said. Oyster hatcheries may be able to adjust their intake water or add chemicals to help the larvae survive, Dewey said, but oysters in the wild are another story. Hood Canal has always been known for its abundant natural production, but that could be changing. Worse, numerous other shelled organisms — including zooplankton at the base of the food web and the many filter feeders that clean the waters — may be affected by the increasing acidity.
Hunter Cutting

Temperature records falling in DC heatwave, three dead - 0 views

  • Temperatures of 90 or above have been reported every day this week at Reagan National Airport and on 14 of the first 25 days of the month. With more such days expected Saturday and Sunday, National Weather Service forecasters predict that this month "will likely end up being the warmest June on record."
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