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Haydn W

France's Fiscal Policy Targets Very Challenging Says IMF - NASDAQ.com - 0 views

  • PARIS--French President Francois Hollande has chosen the right path to repair the country's economy and finances, but its fiscal targets are very challenging, the International Monetary Fund said Thursday.
  • At the start of the year, the socialist leader switched from a policy of tax increases to spending cuts to bring down the budget deficit.
  • The planned reduction in taxes mean that the cutbacks to spending relative to trend will need to be very large if public finances are to be brought back to balance
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  • If the government delivers the EUR50 billion ($68.5 billion) of savings over 2015 to 2017 that would be "remarkable by historical standards," the IMF said.
  • data on Thursday showed the French economy remained weak at the start of this year, while Germany posted better-than-expected growth. France escaped the wider euro-zone recession that followed the bloc's debt crisis, but it has failed to post strong growth for the last two years and the government has repeatedly missed its targets for bringing down the deficit.
  • Mr. Hollande launched a Responsibility Pact, under which payroll taxes on businesses would be cut in an effort to boost investment and recruitment
  • The IMF said the measures in the Responsibility Pact would only slowly boost growth to around 1% this year and 1.5% in 2015. It also warned there are risks of a weaker rebound and that inflation would remain around 1% with the economy operating well below capacity.
  • The IMF said the European Central Bank--which indicated last week it may launch stimulus measures in June--could do more to help France meet its targets.
  • "More accommodative monetary conditions would help with the implementation of the fiscal program and bring forward the benefits of structural reforms," the fund said.
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    This article details France's success in it's road to recovery following the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. This week the IMF has hailed president François Hollande's cutback path to repair the countries economy but commented that his targets may be 'very challenging.' This comes after the French government has delivered vast savings through austerity measures whilst retaining general stability despite the rise of far-right groups like The Front National. In my opinion for a country in the eurozone Hollande's France seems to be doing well for itself on the road to recovery and could set an example for other Eurozone countries, like Greece and Portugal.
John B

How "Dead Men" Fiscal Policy Is Paralyzing Government - 1 views

  • More and more fiscal policy is designed to be permanent and out of the effective control of the lawmakers who create it.
  • The reason is the classic prisoner’s dilemma. Lawmakers (some of them anyway) know they’d benefit from a political grand bargain where Democrats agree to reduce spending by restructuring the big mandatory programs and Republicans agree to raise new revenues by slashing tax subsidies.
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    This article is dealing with a book called "Dead Men" that is about how the government is so divided into two halfs, where both try to stay away from increasing taxes as that is what the voters mostly look for.
Amanda Anna G

U.S. be warned: Default would cause global crisis - CNN.com - 0 views

  • The impact of default could be catastrophic, and not just economically. As Secretary of State John Kerry asserts, this would send a message "of political silliness" that we "can't get our own act together" so we need to "get back on a track the world will respect."
  • As the U.S. partial government shutdown continues into almost a third week, the stakes are growing
  • This builds on earlier studies by the organization, including in 2011-12 which highlighted "intensified speculation about America's long-term stability," partly as a result of the downgrade by Standard & Poor's of the country's credit rating. This was prompted by the last near debt default of Washington in 2011.
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  • Then, as now, however, the country retains attractive qualities for many foreigners, including its popular culture and economic innovation.
  • And the fact remains that, in times of major urgency, Washington can transcend partisan divisions and work in the national interest.
  • This was demonstrated, for instance, during the 2008-9 financial crisis when Congress and the administration acted more swiftly and comprehensively than many other countries to counteract the worst economic turmoil since at least the 1930s. This has been key in enabling the country to recover more quickly from recession than some other areas of the world. While current problems should therefore be put into context, the situation is nonetheless troubling. And this is not the first time this year that a Washington political impasse has threatened negative economic repercussions
  • Only at the 11th hour did Congress in January agree a deal to prevent the U.S. falling off the "fiscal cliff." It is estimated that the automatic tax increases and spending cuts might well have taken the U.S. economy back into recession.
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    This article relates to equilibrium and price mechanism because it describes changes in impacts of the market. Stakes are growing, there are "intensified speculation about America's long-term stability" due to a downgrade in the country's credit rating, and an unstable state at the "fiscal cliff". These worries and a political impasse in Washington are some impacts that has threatened negative economic repercussions in the US, moving the market equilibrium. In response to changes in price, resources are allocated and re-allocated. However, profits are still able to be made making the equilibrium more stable without excess demand and supply, due to that the US has its popular culture and economic innovation, helping the country to retain attractive qualities for many foreigners.
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    I think this is a very serious matter, that could affect the world's over all economy if it goes on for a while. We can see that obviously a majority of the world's largest companies are american and based in america. If this effects any of those companies, the market they operate at will see a big change, both in the good way and the bad one.
Haydn W

Inflation Forecast 2014-2014: Continued Mild Price Increases - 1 views

  • Inflation is likely to remain mild in the next two years, but first a caution: none of the inflation forecasting models is doing a good job these days.
  • the Phillips Curve was our primary way of looking at inflation. William Phillips found an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment over the period 1861-1957. This simple approach was used here in the United States in the 1960s and 70s.
  • With lower unemployment you would expect greater inflation. However, the Phillips Curve does not explain why inflation didn’t go down much when our unemployment rate was high a few years ago.
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  • Milton Friedman said “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon . . . .” The relationship was solid for a long time, though financial changes in the 1990s made the theory harder to apply.
  • Unfortunately, the expectations-augmented Phillips Curve has not worked well in recent years. One study found that the predicted inflation for 2010 was negative 4.3 percent, while actual inflation was still positive.
  • Different theories tell us that the actual dynamics by which inflation changes are influenced not only by unemployment but also by inflation expectations.
  • Two different money concepts have been used, the money supply (such as the M2 definition) and the monetary base Recent data for both concepts indicate that inflation should have been much higher in recent years. The fact that inflation has accelerated very little suggests that in the current environment, the money-inflation connection is not very tight.
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    This article from Forbes is primarily titled to be a forecast about inflation in the coming fiscal year but it also interestingly (and relevant to our studies) discusses the different arguments and criticism surrounding the modelled Phillips Curve. The article also contains an interesting graph that is based on recorded statistics about inflation and unemployment which helps to demonstrate the problems with the Phillips Curve model. 
Haydn W

Coal India could have helped slash production cost by 12%: Power Companies - The Econom... - 0 views

  • KOLKATA: Coal India Ltd could have helped power companies save their production cost by 12%, or 35 paise a unit
  • The state-run monopoly coal supplier on Tuesday declared a dividend of Rs 29 a share.
  • CIL increased coal prices by a minimum 30% for all thermal coal used by power companies over the past three years
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  • This enabled the company to increase its cash and bank balance from about Rs 45,000 crore during 2010-11 to Rs 62,000 crore in 2012-13,
  • Most of the additional reserves came from higher prices as production did not rise at the same pace. This fiscal year, the company is likely to miss its target on coal production by about 17 million tonnes and sales by some 15 million tonnes.
  • Power tariffs are regulated by Central and state regulatory commissions, however, coal prices are not. Every increase in coal prices leads to increased power generation costs which need to be passed on to consumers.
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    This article explains how production costs in India could have been cut if Coal India had kept prices lower. The article also tells us that the company has a monopoly on the industry and is state-run which has lead some people to criticise the government. The company has been accused of protecting its own interests by raising prices to cache its bank balance. 
John B

BlackBerry confirms loss of $965 million as sales drop 45% | Mobile - CNET News - 0 views

  • BlackBerry offered few surprises as it posted a fiscal second-quarter loss of nearly $1 billion as its smartphones continued to struggle in the marketplace.
  • The official results come a week after BlackBerry released preliminary figures and said it would cut roughly 40 percent of its staff as it shifted its focus away from consumers and more towards business customers.
  • Its newer phones as a whole didn't seem to resonate with consumers. The company said it shipped 3.7 million BlackBerrys, but a majority of them were made up of BlackBerrys running older software, which remain popular in emerging markets because of their low price.
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    This article is about how the BlackBerry phones are dropping in demand, and therefore the company have to "cut roughly 40 percent of its staff..." because of the loss of $965 million. When they have to cut down on he staff, it means that they can't afford the service that those workers can provide.
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    This article is about how the BlackBerry phones are dropping in demand, and therefore the company have to "cut roughly 40 percent of its staff..." because of the loss of $965 million. When they have to cut down on he staff, it means that they can't afford the service that those workers can provide.
Hardy Hewson

Indonesia's new leader, facing growth hurdles, may focus on cutting... - 1 views

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    This article concerns the challenges facing the new leader of Indonesia, Joko Widodo, specifically the prospect of fiscal stimulus to the economy, the breaking down of government bureaucracy, and the supply-side reforms that may make this possible. It also discusses the personal experience Widodo has in combatting similar challenges as Jakarta Governor, and concludes that, on their own, supply-side reform will not "boost the economy in the short term, but announcing some positive reforms should encourage investors and that should help with the demand side as well."
Samuel Choi

RBI cautious on response to gold import surge - 0 views

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    India, the world's second-largest gold-consuming country, is battling a balance of payments crisis as the gold import industry grew exponentially in a short amount of time. Though the spike in the import numbers is clear, no clear action has been taken yet; policymakers, however, agree that restrictions must be placed on private trading houses. Private jewelry exporters are the main customers and account for a massive number of the bulk for the demand of gold. "India sharply restricted gold imports in early 2013 as the country battled a balance of payments crisis triggered by the U.S. Federal Reserve's announcement that it would start to ease its programme of quantitative easing. But it eased some of the measures after India's current account deficit fell sharply from the record high of 4.8 percent of gross domestic product in the fiscal year ended in March 2013 to 1.7 percent in the quarter ending in June."
Haydn W

Ukraine Uncertainty Depressing Growth and Investment | The Moscow Times - 5 views

  • As world leaders increase or trash their political clout depending on their audience and the statements they make about the situation in the Ukraine, some analysts were revising Russian GDP growth estimates to as low as 1.1 percent for the year.
  • Wednesday was a calmer day on the stock markets, following a dip of 10.8 percent Monday morning that vaporized near $60 billion of valuation from Russian companies.
  • Although Russia has seen some short-term budget benefits from ruble devaluation and increasing oil prices, the current impasse is not helping to fight stagnation or attract investment.
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  • The ruble strengthened slightly to 36 against the dollar and 49.4 against the euro Wednesday evening. This was well above the lows reached on Monday
  • Tightening fiscal policy was topped by possibly impending U.S. sanctions, including economic ones, followed by President Vladimir Putin's claims that Russia may use force in Ukraine if necessary.
  • The heap of these latest events has caused some analysts to revise their overall economy forecasts.
  • PSB Research said Wednesday it would decrease its initially modest GDP growth estimates for the year from the range of 1.5 to 1.8 percent to 1.1 to 1.3 percent.
  • Political standoff will also further stimulate the outflow of capital, Fedotkova said, as investors are reluctant to channel their money into the country that may be possibly involved in any kind of military activity
  • As for businesses, a recent survey done by the Gaidar Institute suggests that more than a third of CEOs and owners of private companies would consider investing in production this year if the price for equipment went down and if the macroeconomic outlook were more certain, Vedomosti reported Monday. At the same time macroeconomic uncertainty was a headache for only 10 percent of surveyed state-controlled companies. No margin of error was given for the survey.
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    This article explains how the recent stand-off crisis in Ukraine is having a negative effect on the Russian economy, with the Rouble taking a further fall and GDP growth estimates being revised downwards. Predictably sanctions imposed by the west on Russia in response to the occupation of Crimea, an autonomous region of Ukraine populated largely by ethnic Russians, have affected businesses in Russia. We learn from the article that some $60 billion valuation has been lost by Russian companies in light of the tensions. This article relates to the macroeconomic concept of circular flow being a complex process with international trade and governments being involved majorly in proceedings.
Clemence Lafeuille

Supply side economic policies would end the Obama Depression - 4 views

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    This article evaluate fiscal and monetary policy in reference to a real world example, and go over the benefits of supply-side policy. It suggests another course of action for the US government, one where supply-side policy would be emphasised rather than any demand-side policy, because the author states that the economic stagnation is not a demand-side problem. Easy article that evaluates policies in a clear way.
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