ZIS IB Year 2 - Maley

China faces some serious economic problems. One main problem is that China seems to be suffering from excess capacity resulting from an overinvestment in factories, retail stores or infrastructure which leads to an imbalanced supply and aggregate demand relation. Aggregate demand is the total demand for a nation's goods and services from domestic households, firms, the government and foreigners. The article reveals two different approaches to evaluating China's economy: the Keynesian theory and the Austrian school theory. The Keynesians argue that aggregate demand drives stability and that governments can and should help in difficult times. The Chinese government has the tools to increase aggregate demand as it could for example "adjust interest rates and bank reserve requirements, instruct state-owned banks to maintain lending", deploy foreign exchange reserves, or initiate construction and infrastructure projects. On the other hand, the Austrian school of economics believes that it is hard for the government to invest money wisely, particularly in China, where there seems to be an environment of "economic favoritism". The Keynesians may believe that China will be able to manage its overcapacity; however, the Austrian theory argues that the Chinese government will distort resource allocation and further limit aggregate demand. - Julieta Fischer

The article explains how the German retail sales decreased by 0.9 percent in July, as a result of the increasing fuel prices.  The inflated prices of fuel have caused the consumption on other goods and services of households in Germany to decrease. Consumption is one of the four factors that affects the aggregate demand or the total demand for final goods and services in an economy at a given time and price level, in an economy. Therefore, if consumption of households decreases the aggregate demand in an economy also decreases. Hence, the aggregate demand in Germany's economy has decreased significantly and therefore their retail sales have also decreased, by 0.9 percent as the article claims. This is because if consumption is lower than the units of output sold are also lower. 

One of the factors affecting aggregate demand is a country's net exports. Ceteris paribus, as price levels in a country fall, goods and services produced in that country become more attractive to foreign consumers. Some countries have no choice but to import items that they cannot produce. This is another reason for countries to import goods. In this case, the UAE is importing a variety of products from France, ranging from heavy equipment to consumer goods, particularly luxury goods. This article states that France's exports to the UAE are expected to grow 3% this year in comparison with 2011. Therefore, an increase in net exports is anticipated. A result of this could be that the aggregate demand of France will increase. At the same time, the UAE is importing more, so its net exports are decreasing. Hence, its aggregate demand will decrease.

This article discusses the need for the U.K. government to "show some political backbone" by becoming more enterprise friendly in order to stimulate the badly required growth of their economy. U.K. business leaders have become increasingly concerned as the CBI has predicted that the U.K. economy will shrink by 0.3% this year. This fall in GDP is a sign that the country is entering a double-dip recession. The reason behind this is declining exports, the on-going euro crisis, a stagnant economy since the coalition, reduced borrowing on credit cards, an increase in unemployment and a lack of household spending. A reduced borrowing on credit cards and lack of household spending directly affects GDP as GDP can be calculated using the expenditure method, where household consumption is one of the factors taken into consideration. If consumption falls, so does GDP. In order to prevent the GDP from falling further and to promote economic growth, schemes such as tax breaks for small firms taking on extra workers ,schemes that boost the mortgage and household market and schemes that support household expenditure have been implemented. This could lead to a rise in employment as well as expenditures, causing GDP to grow. 

Indonesia has been experiencing rapid economic growth which has increased the size of the middle class as well as their disposable incomes. The article describes how an increase in required down-payments on cars and houses may decrease the growth in Indonesia's economy. Last year the automotive finance growth of banks was 55%, the highest in the world. They have noticed that this is an unsustainable rate of growth. Due to these fears the Indonesian central bank has placed new regulations which will make buyers pay higher down-payments when making a purchase on credit. These down-payments have been increased from originally 10-20% to 30% and more. With that households see themselves with less money available for consumption. The new regulations may also result in a dip in property sales as aggregate demand decreases. However on the other side it may also only defer sales, since people will safe longer until they buy property. 

Indonesia is threatening to slow down its economic expansion because of its  lack of spending, especially on infrastructure. At this stage, Indonesia is only  spending around 2% of its gross domestic product on capital expenditure and  infrastructure which is far below the amount needed to support Indonesia's  current economic growth.

coming soon. 

Data shows that contraction in the UK has not dropped by as much as it was expected to, so could this mean that they are reaching a trough and the recession is coming to an end? Inflation is down and unemployment is falling, although the productive capacity of the economy has been affected because of a shift to part-time work. The UK  has had a flat economy over the past two years, so the lower than expected changes in GDP do not change that it is in a recession. 

This article describes how the Brazilian government tries to increase investment and consumption through tax cuts. In particular on trucks, machinery, and automobiles the government reduces or gives an extension on the taxes. Another measure to stimulate investment in the country is via reducing its interest rate to an all-time low of 7.5 %. 

Germany's business cycle...blah blah blah.....(150 words!)