World Futures Fall 2021

According to the new report released last week by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and Value of Water Campaign, the United States is underinvesting in its drinking water and wastewater systems, putting American households and the economy at risk. The report, "The Economic Benefits of Investing in Water Infrastructure: How a Failure to Act Would Affect the U.S. Economy Recovery," finds that as water infrastructure deteriorates and service disruptions increase, annual costs to American households due to water and wastewater failures will be seven times higher in 20 years than they are today -from $2 billion in 2019 to $14 billion by 2039.

DRIVER-MATERIALS-INFRASTRUCTURE Municipal pipe market spending makes up 30 percent of overall utility CAPEX for water infrastructure. In part, to address aging pipes, bursts, and other leakage management issues, the pipe market is turning to new materials (plastic) and new technologies (trenchless). More than $234 billion (USD) of capital expenditures (CAPEX) are forecasted over the next decade to address aging municipal water and wastewater pipe network infrastructure, according to Bluefield's forecasts. Precipitated by decades of underinvestment, municipal utilities are under increasing pressure to address deteriorating linear assets at a faster pace. Water losses through leaks for U.S. utilities average 15 percent annually, with some cities, towns, and communities losing more than half of all water pumped and treated for distribution to customers. As a result, rehabilitation of existing pipes is the fastest growing spend category, increasing annually from $253 million in 2019 to $576 million by 2028. Network expansions, particularly in high population growth across the sunbelt states (e.g. Texas and Arizona), will drive the lion's share of spending on new build.

Article on the supply chain issues affecting the global economy. The increased demand along with shortages in available labor has added to the problem. Also mention of inflation and how the supply chain bottlenecks is likely to result in continued inflation in coming months. The reliance on ports is critical and with the anticipated growth in coming years, it will be even more critical.

As the pandemic seems to be ending, people are not going back to work. Workers are upset with employers as their wages stay stagnant, and perks that were once the norm, are now few and far between. While many of quite (>4 million in August), many have decided to strike.

When we modeled what the next two decades would look like if we continued current underinvestment trends, we found that no industry is immune to water disruptions. The most water-reliant businesses will spend $250 billion in 2039 on costs related to water service disruptions. Less reliable water service would make industries less efficient and profitable, and the consequences would ripple across the entire economy, leading to more than $4.5 trillion in lost business sales, a $2.9 trillion decline in the gross domestic product (GDP), and 636,000 fewer jobs. Individual households and communities would also endure the consequences of underinvestment as more frequent and extreme weather inflict shutdowns, and street flooding deteriorating and rupturing water infrastructure. Without proper infrastructure investment, there will be greater costs to US households. At the current rate, costs will be seven times higher in 20 years than they are today, totaling $14 billion in 2039.

In a 2018 survey and assessment, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) found that drinking water infrastructure alone needed nearly $500 billion in maintenance and improvements over the next 20 years. This figure does not even include the cost of addressing lead service line issues and the need to add additional capacity in growing communities. Coupled with the need to replace aging pipes, water utilities are facing the need to prepare for the impacts of climate change on their operations. Recent drought events suggest that water supplies in many states will face serious challenges just to keep operating normally.

The Aging Water Infrastructure (AWI) research program is part of EPA's larger effort called the Sustainable Water Infrastructure (SI) initiative. The SI initiative brings together drinking water and wastewater utility managers; trade associations; local watershed protection organizations; and federal, state, and local officials to ensure that all components of our nation's water infrastructure….drinking water treatment plants, drinking water distribution lines, sewer lines, and storage facilities….meet future needs. The AWI research program supports the four priority areas of the SI initiative's strategy: (1) Better Management - moving beyond compliance to sustainability and improved performance, (2) Full-cost Pricing - helping utilities to recognize the full cost of providing service over the long term, (3) Water Efficiency - promoting water efficiency in the residential and commercial sectors, (4) Watershed Approach - integrating watershed management principles and tools into utility planning and management practices. The driving force behind the SI initiative and the AWI research program is the "Clean Water and Drinking Water Infrastructure Gap Analysis." In this report, EPA estimated that if operation, maintenance, and capital investment remain at current levels, the potential funding shortage for drinking water and wastewater infrastructure could exceed $500 billion by 2020.