World Futures Fall 2021

"Collective motions of biological systems such as bird flocks, fish schools, and bacterial swarms are the most vivid examples of the emergent behaviors of active matter (1). While moving independently at low density, self-propelled units in active matter can move collectively at high density, giving rise to coherent flows at length scales much larger than the size of individual units. In bacterial suspensions, these coherent flows exhibit a chaotic pattern of intermittent vortices and jets, reminiscent of turbulent flows at high Reynolds numbers. Hence, the flows induced by bacterial collective swimming are also known as active or bacterial turbulence (2-5)."

We all have a futuristic vision of lonely robot trucks running alone through a dark desert night in our heads. But, in reality, the first automated commercial vehicle you see "in the wild," will most likely be a truck or van running in a controlled area - possibly under some sort of remote human control or monitoring. For most of us, this probably will be some sort of airport or hotel shuttle bus, running a dedicated route on a dedicated timetable, performing a monotonous, but demanding, task over and over again.

Fully electric trucks, often referred to as commercial battery electric trucks, are reaching wider-scale consideration as truck, engine, and other component makers are developing the systems that will support such vehicles. Battery and power-electronic development has progressed to make these trucks viable in certain applications. These trucks will have many benefits (more renewable energy, simpler design, etc.), but come with challenges (need for new infrastructure, development investments, etc.).

When autonomous trucks arrive, the learning curve will be steep. But a few easy preparations today can help make that eventual transition from manned trucks to autonomous ones go a lot more smoothly.

With the trucking industry continuing to move forward, the main thing on truck drivers' minds is the security of their jobs. Let's take a closer look at self-driving trucks quickly becoming a reality.

What would most revolutionize logistics over the next few years? The most obvious answer is autonomous trucking. But when will this technology become operational? Will it take decades? A decade? Or can we get there in the next few years? That is the core question.

Driverless trucks are already heading out to the highway, as shipping companies increasingly look to autonomous technology to meet rising demand for goods. The focus now: determining the best way to hand off trailers from machine to human.

The integrated corridor management (ICM) approach is based on three fundamental concepts: a corridor-level "nexus" to operations; agency integration through institutional, operational, and technical means; and active management of all available, and hopefully participating, corridor assets and facilities. Each of these concepts is described below

Self-driving commercial trucks could regularly operate alongside the motoring public on U.S. highways sooner than many may think, particularly as the industry moves beyond prototypes to real-world, on-road testing. However, the shift likely will be gradual and largely dependent on commercial truck OEMs, regulations, and gaining public acceptance.

You know that universal sign we give truckers, hoping they'll sound their air horns? Well, you're gonna be hearing a lot less honking in the future. And with good reason. The absence of an actual driver in the cab. We may focus on the self-driving car, but autonomous trucking is not an if, it's a when. And the when is coming sooner than you might expect. As we first reported last year, companies have been quietly testing their prototypes on public roads

Estimates from the American Trucking Association suggest there are 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the United States and the industry, as a whole, employs more than 8.7 million people. According to the Los Angeles Times, 1.7 million American truckers could be replaced by self-driving trucks over the next decade.

But by late 2019, Aurora's emphasis had shifted. It said self-driving trucks, not cars, would be quicker to hit public roads en masse. Its executives, who had steadfastly refused to provide a timeline for their self-driving-car software, now say trucks equipped with its "Aurora Driver" will hit the roads in 2023 or 2024, with ride-hail vehicles following a year or two later.

When we modeled what the next two decades would look like if we continued current underinvestment trends, we found that no industry is immune to water disruptions. The most water-reliant businesses will spend $250 billion in 2039 on costs related to water service disruptions. Less reliable water service would make industries less efficient and profitable, and the consequences would ripple across the entire economy, leading to more than $4.5 trillion in lost business sales, a $2.9 trillion decline in the gross domestic product (GDP), and 636,000 fewer jobs. Individual households and communities would also endure the consequences of underinvestment as more frequent and extreme weather inflict shutdowns, and street flooding deteriorating and rupturing water infrastructure. Without proper infrastructure investment, there will be greater costs to US households. At the current rate, costs will be seven times higher in 20 years than they are today, totaling $14 billion in 2039.

DRIVER-WATER-SCARCITY-INFRASTRUCTURE-MATERIALS The North American drinking water infrastructure network spans an estimated 1 million miles, more than four times longer than the National Highway System, and that doesn't even take wastewater pipes into account. Much of the water infrastructure in the United States will need to be replaced in the next three decades. A large portion of water pipes was installed during three periods, and they will all need to be replaced in the next 25 years. Consider the following The oldest cast iron pipes laid in the late 1800s usually last 120 years; Pipes laid in 1920s must be replaced after 100 years; Pipes from the post-World War II boom wear out after 75 years. According to a 2012 report done by the American Water Works Association, the cost estimate to replace the old pipes is approximately $1 trillion over the next 25 years. The longer our water infrastructure is out of sight and out of mind, the closer we are to a serious national situation that will require immediate and dramatic funding. The cost of water infrastructure replacement far exceeds the financial capabilities of local water utilities and requires a strong commitment from not only utilities but rate-payers and government as well.

DRIVER-SCARCITY-POLLUTION-INFRASTRUCTURE Four billion people - almost two-thirds of the world's population - experience severe water scarcity for at least one month each year. Over two billion people live in countries where the water supply is inadequate. Half of the world's population could be living in areas facing water scarcity by as early as 2025. Some 700 million people could be displaced by intense water scarcity by 2030. By 2040, roughly 1 in 4 children worldwide will be living in areas of extremely high water stress.

DRIVER-POLITICS Over the past two decades, global studies on the water have reported ongoing issues. In 2008, the United Nations Millennium Development Goals Report said that while there is greater access to drinking water, there are still about 1 billion people without access to safe water and more than 2.5 billion people without good sanitation. The Charting Our Water Future Report by a consortium of business partners in 2009 said that water demand will exceed supply by 50 percent in 2030.

DRIVER-POLITICS-SCARCITY Water scarcity is one of the most pressing humanitarian crises facing the world today. Access to water resources has far-reaching political and social implications, especially in areas where water is scarce. Natural water basins do not comply with man-made political borders, and as a result, the allocation of precious water resources becomes a point of negotiation in transnational treaties and agreements. Adding to the politicization of water is the connection between water and energy production. Water is needed for all types of energy production, and energy is needed for the extraction and dissemination of clean water

DRIVER-POLITICS Many political factors impacted the development of the Colorado River Compact (now known as the Colorado River Basin Water Agreement, or CRBWA). These political factors included politicians, political agencies, legislation, and political pressure groups/lobbyists. This paper will present an in-depth administrative analysis of the impact of politics on the CRBWA. It will include historical and theoretical research, as well as interviews with present-day politicians in order to answer questions relating to the impact of politics on the original agreement. Some of the major questions asked were: What politics impacted the CRBWA and how did they affect its creation? Has the agreement achieved its goals and mission? Why or why not? What changes could be made to the CRBWA to help achieve the agreement's mission and goals?