World Futures Fall 2021

DRIVER-POLITICS-INFRASTRUCTURE-TREATEMENT Criminal Charges Filed Against 6 Officials Schuette announced criminal charges against six more current and former state employees, bringing the total number of people charged to nine. Liane Shekter-Smith is the former director of the drinking water and municipal assistance office within the MDEQ. She and two subordinates, Adam Rosenthal and Patrick Cook, allegedly misled officials about Flint's water treatment plant, which was not in compliance with lead and copper rules. The other three people charged are current or former employees of the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. The director of the child health unit, Nancy Peeler, her subordinate, Robert Scott, and a state epidemiologist Corinne Miller allegedly failed to release a report that showed unsafe lead levels in the blood of Flint children. All six are charged with misconduct in office, conspiracy, and willful neglect of duty. Rosenthal is also charged with tampering with evidence, for allegedly requesting water tests that did not show elevated lead.

DRIVER-TREATMENT-POLITICS-POLLUTION The original 1948 statute (Ch. 758; P.L. 845), the Water Pollution Control Act, authorized the Surgeon General of the Public Health Service, in cooperation with other Federal, state and local entities, to prepare comprehensive programs for eliminating or reducing the pollution of interstate waters and tributaries and improving the sanitary condition of surface and underground waters. During the development of such plans, due regard was to be given to improvements necessary to conserve waters for public water supplies, propagation of fish and aquatic life, recreational purposes, and agricultural and industrial uses. The original statute also authorized the Federal Works Administrator to assist states, municipalities, and interstate agencies in constructing treatment plants to prevent discharges of inadequately treated sewage and other wastes into interstate waters or tributaries.

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DRIVER-INFRASTRUCTURE-FUNDING-POLITICS 5-year update to 50-year Texas Water Plan QUICK FACTS: **Texas' state water plans are based on future conditions in the event of a recurrence of the worst recorded drought in Texas' history-known as the "drought of record"-a time when, generally, water supplies are lowest and water demands are highest. **Texas' population is anticipated to increase 73 percent between 2020 and 2070, from 29.7 million to 51.5 million, with approximately half of this growth occurring in Regions C and H. Water demands are projected to increase less significantly, by approximately 9 percent between 2020 and 2070, from 17.7 million to 19.2 million acre-feet per year. **Texas' existing water supplies-those that can already be relied on in the event of drought-are projected to decline by approximately 18 percent between 2020 and 2070, from 16.8 million to 13.8 million acre-feet per year primarily due to reservoir sedimentation and depletion of aquifers. **Water user groups face a potential water shortage of 3.1 million acre-feet per year in 2020 and 6.9 million acrefeet per year in 2070 in drought of record conditions. **Approximately 5,800 water management strategies recommended in this plan would provide 1.7 million acrefeet per year in additional water supplies to water user groups in 2020 and 7.7 million acre-feet per year in 2070. **Conservation strategies represent approximately 29 percent, or 2.2 million acre-feet per year, of all recommended water management strategy volumes in 2070 and were recommended for more than half of the water user groups in the plan. **The estimated capital cost to design, construct, and implement the more than 2,400 recommended water management strategy projects by 2070 is $80 billion. If strategies are not implemented, approximately one-quarter of Texas' population in 2070 would have less than half the municipal water supplies they will require during a drought of record. **If Texas does not implement the sta

DRIVER-SCARCITY The Industrial Revolutions improved living standards for people in most nations where technology proliferated.[1] Populations in modern societies are not overly concerned with accessing food or water on a daily basis. In particular, the availability of clean, freshwater is a reasonable expectation throughout the modern world. However, a growing lack of water ("water scarcity"), propelled by continued technological advancement and high demand, is creating a global crisis. This resource scarcity will change long-held expectations and demonstrate the capacity to disrupt the security and stability of entire regions. This Article examines the global state of freshwater scarcity[2] and the often-neglected linkages of water scarcity to economic, social, political, legal, and security consequences arising from disruptions, failures, or attacks on water access and distribution systems.[3] Our research concentrates on examples of the impacts of water scarcity from past and present utilizing selected examples from North America, the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa. We contend that poorly understood links between access to adequate water and national stability pose severe global security risks, especially if technological and policy correctives are not implemented to increase water resiliency and ensure availability and access.

DRIVER-POLITICS Water Politics Limited, a geopolitical risk advisory and consulting firm, found that water scarcity could lead to conflict or political instability in many countries. Sources including the Euphrates, Tigris, Jordan, Nile, Danube, and Okavango rivers as well as the Tibetan watershed and resources will become insufficient to support the surrounding areas. These sources currently provide water to dozens of countries across Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Water scarcity will therefore affect communities across the globe. Importantly, it may spark conflict over remaining water resources, within a nation or even between nations. Anya Groner at The Atlantic points to evidence of past conflicts that have revolved around water. These include the riots in Cape Town, South Africa, in 2012, which responded to inequality in the distribution of water resources.

DRIVER-WATER TREATMENT TECHNOLOGY Ozone water treatment oxidizes iron, manganese, and sulfur in your well water to form insoluble metal oxides or elemental sulfur. These insoluble particles such as rust, are then removed by filtration which is typically activated carbon, manganese dioxide, or other media such as filter sand. Ozone is much faster at killing bacteria and oxidizing iron and manganese compared to chlorine or peroxide. One advantage for home use is that ozone is quite unstable and will degrade over a time frame ranging from a few seconds to 30 minutes.

DRIVERS-SCARCITY-INFRASTRUCTURE This study estimates the likelihood of water shortages over the remainder of the 21st century in 204 watersheds covering the contiguous United States. The estimates are based on monthly projections of water demand and renewable water supply in light of population growth and climate change, taking into account water storage and transbasin diversion capacities. The study then examines several possible adaptations to projected shortages, including water withdrawal efficiency improvements, reservoir storage enhancements, demand reductions, instream flow reductions, and groundwater depletion. Results provide a broad measure of the relative efficacy of the adaptation measures and show when and where the measures are likely to be helpful.

DRIVER-INFRASTRUCTURE-SCARCITY-POLITICS By 2071, nearly half of the 204 freshwater basins in the United States may not be able to meet the monthly water demand. These model projections, recently published in the journal Earth's Future, are just one preliminary component of the upcoming Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment expected to be published next year. In 1974, congress required that this assessment of US renewable resources be published every 10 years. Conducted by the U.S. Forest Service, the research describes two causes for the projected shortages. The first is that the U.S. will simply have more people. Despite that the average American is using less water, population growth is still expected to increase water demand across most of the country. Second, the water supply itself is expected to decrease. Projected climate change affects both rain patterns and temperatures. While rainfall is expected to increase in some parts of the US, the southern Great Plains and parts of the South won't be so lucky. The water basins rely on rainfall to feed the rivers and tributaries that flow into them. Separately, more water will evaporate from reservoirs and streams as the climate gets warmer, further chipping away at the water supply. Around 50 years from now, many U.S. regions may see water supplies reduced by a third of their current size, while demand continues to increase.

DRIVER-WATER-WELL-TREATMENT-CHEMISTRY The main purpose of water well rehabilitation is to restore lost water volume and/or quality. Rehabilitation methods fall into two main categories: chemical or mechanical. Chemical rehabilitation involves discovering the cause(s) of well plugging and adding a chemical solution designed to dissolve the plugging material. Although various chemical formulas are offered by different companies, the basic approach is the same: a successful chemical reaction in the well.

DRIVERS-POLLUTION-TREATMENT-SCARCITY-INFRASTRUCTURE Total trihalomethanes (TTHM) are a group of disinfection byproducts that form when chlorine compounds that are used to disinfect water react with other naturally occurring chemicals in the water. They are colorless, and will evaporate out of the water into the air. There are four significant TTHM potentially found in disinfected drinking water and their combined concentration is referred to as total TTHM. Levels of TTHM generally increase in the summer months due to the warmer temperatures, but can also be affected by seasonal changes in source water quality or by changing amounts of disinfection added. Water systems often can experience temporary increases in TTHM due to short-term increases in chlorine disinfection. Chlorine disinfection increases can occur when there is a water main break, when water systems are under repair, or when there is a potential microbial (example: bacteria) problem or threat.

DRIVERS-TREATMENT-TTHM-POLLUTION-SCARCITY-FUNDING Disinfection by-products (DBP) are a class of chemical by-products also referred to as trihalomethanes (THMs), formed when chlorine or bromine interacts with the natural organic materials found in water. DBPs also include other formed products, such as haloacetic acids, haloacetonitriles, haloketones, and chlorophenols. The composition and levels of specific DBPs are determined by water quality, water treatment conditions, and disinfectant type (IPCS, 2000). Primary sources of DBPs are chlorinated drinking water and recreational water bodies, such as swimming pools. In drinking water, trichloromethane is the predominant DBP, usually found at much higher levels than bromodichloromethane; tribromomethane is the least abundant (Krasner et al., 1989). DBPs are volatile at room temperature and can be detected in ambient air during activities such as showering, bathing, dishwashing, and swimming (Backer, et al., 2000; Gordon et al., 2006). Trichloromethane has industrial applications and is used to produce refrigerants and feedstock. It may be released into the environment where chlorine-based chemicals are used for bleaching and disinfecting processes or disposed at hazardous waste sites (IPCS, 2004; LaRegina, et al. 1986). Tribromomethane has limited industrial uses, mainly in geological assaying, electronics manufacturing, and as a solvent in laboratory analyses (ATSDR, 2005). DBPs tend not to bioaccumulate in aquatic organisms or persist in open or surface waters or soils, but they can remain in water within closed pipe systems. Workplace exposure may occur during the production of trichloromethane or tribromomethane, or in workplaces where DBPs may be generated, such as pulp or paper manufacturing, swimming pools, and water treatment plants (IPCS, 2004).

DRIVER-TREATMENT-WATER-INFRASTRUCTURE-CHEMISTRY-CHLORAMINE One new option that communities with ammonia problems have is biological filtration. This is a safe, chemical-free, method of removing ammonia. In a biological filtration facility, one of the stages of filtration is to pass the water through a special filter that is full of nitrifying bacteria. These bacteria take in the ammonia and some oxygen and perform a bio-oxidation reaction. They oxidize the ammonia into nitrite NH3 + O2 -> NO2- + 3H+ Then further oxidize that into nitrate, NO2- + H2O -> NO3- + 2H+. The bacteria gain energy from these reactions and are specialized to do them very efficiently. This process is part of the natural nitrogen cycle and does not produce any harmful byproducts. The nitrate that is produced by this process can easily be removed from the water by the reverse osmosis membrane in the final stage of the filtration process. The reaction between chlorine and ammonia can be written as NH3 +HOCl -> NH2Cl + H2O. In this chemical equation, NH3 is ammonia and HOCl is hypochlorous acid which is formed when the chlorine is first dissolved in the water. The primary result of this chemical reaction is NH2Cl, a chemical known as chloramine. Chloramine is a disinfectant like chlorine, it is a weaker disinfectant than chlorine but it lasts much longer in water. The chlorine concentration in water can gradually decrease as the chlorine evaporates out but chloramine does not do this. This makes it useful for making sure water stays disinfected throughout drinking water distribution systems. In areas where there is no, or very little, ammonia in the raw water treatment facilities might still want to use chloramine for this purpose. After chlorinating (disinfecting) the water, as the last step in the treatment process, they add ammonia and more chlorine to the water so that they react and create chloramine.

DRIVER-FUNDING-INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING INFRASTRUCTURE: The nationwide need for investment in water and wastewater infrastructure continues to far outpace the amount of funding that is available at all levels of government and the United States has an estimated need between $400 and $600 billion over the next 20 years for safe drinking water and wastewater treatment infrastructure. One of the primary sources of federal funding for drinking water and wastewater infrastructure are the highly successful, but chronically underfunded, Safe Drinking Water and Clean Water State Revolving Loan Fund (SRF) programs. Modernizing and replacing aging water infrastructure may be the single largest public works endeavor in our nation's history. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Water and Drinking Water Infrastructure Gap Analysis found a $540 billion gap between current spending and projected needs for water and wastewater infrastructure (combined) over 20 years. Other public studies conducted by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and a private study produced by AGC partner, the Water Infrastructure Network, have similarly estimated the nation?s water infrastructure needs to range between $400 and $600 billion over a 20-year period.

DRIVER-TTHMs-POLLUTION-PURITY-INFRASTRUCTURE-TREATMENT Trihalomethanes (THMs) are the result of a reaction between the chlorine used for disinfecting tap water and natural organic matter in the water. At elevated levels, THMs have been associated with negative health effects such as cancer and adverse reproductive outcomes. Now a study by government and academic researchers adds to previous evidence that dermal absorption and inhalation of THMs associated with everyday tap water use can result in significantly higher blood THM concentrations than simply drinking the water does [EHP 113:863-870]. The results of this exposure assessment study could serve as a guide for future epidemiologic investigations exploring the potential connection between THMs in tap water and adverse health effects.

DRIVER-FLINT-TREATMENT-WATER-POLLUTION-CHEMISTRY Former EPA Drinking Water Standards Director, Dr. Joseph Cotruvo developed the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) first THM Rule in 1979. I spoke with him for his perspective on TTHM in Flint's drinking water: "Scientists have studied the health effects of disinfection byproducts extensively. For example, the January 4, 2006 Federal Register,2 which announced the Stage 2 Rule, cites over 60 mixed result research studies probing the potential health effects of exposure to disinfection byproducts such as TTHM. After reviewing many studies, the Agency concluded that 'no dose response relationship or causal link has been established between exposure to chlorinated drinking water or disinfection byproducts and adverse developmental or reproductive effects.' Nevertheless, EPA takes a very precautious stand, saying the studies 'do provide an indication of a potential health concern that warrants incremental regulatory action beyond Stage 1 DBPR [Disinfectants and Disinfection Byproducts Rule].'"

Here are 12 critical facts about TTHM as the city's fight to reduce it continues: 1. Trihalomethanes are actually a group of four chemicals that are formed along with other disinfection byproducts when chlorine reacts with organic materials such as leaves or dirt in water, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2. TTHMs are odorless and colorless, according to the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality. That means the high levels of TTHM in Flint water last year are not related to problems such as discoloration and odor in tap water. 3. The four trihalomethane chemicals are chloroform, bromodichloromethane, dibromochloromethane and bromoform. 4. U.S. EPA regulates TTHM at a maximum allowable, annual, average level of 80 parts per billion. The standard has been in place since December 2001 for large public surface water systems and since December 2003 for small surface water and all groundwater systems. 5. Four of eight testing sites in Flint averaged more than the acceptable limit of 80 parts per billion of TTHM last year. 6. Testing for TTHM is done on a quarterly basis, which means that people who use the system are exposed to water for several months before public notice is required. That's because TTHM is a chronic -- not immediate --health threat, according to the DEQ. 7. U.S. EPA estimates the 80 parts per billion standard prevents an estimated 280 cases of bladder cancer each year out of a total of more than 330 million people who use public water supplies nationwide. 8. Since it started using the Flint River as its water source, three quarterly tests have produced these TTHM results in the city: 15 samples have been above the TTHM threshold. Nine samples have tested at less than 80 parts per billion. 9. The most recent quarterly test showed just one site of eight that was above the 80 parts per billion threshold. And a voluntary test of the same sites in late January by the city were all within were all within the limits. 10. The testin

In a 2018 survey and assessment, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) found that drinking water infrastructure alone needed nearly $500 billion in maintenance and improvements over the next 20 years. This figure does not even include the cost of addressing lead service line issues and the need to add additional capacity in growing communities. Coupled with the need to replace aging pipes, water utilities are facing the need to prepare for the impacts of climate change on their operations. Recent drought events suggest that water supplies in many states will face serious challenges just to keep operating normally.

DRIVER-MATERIALS-INFRASTRUCTURE Municipal pipe market spending makes up 30 percent of overall utility CAPEX for water infrastructure. In part, to address aging pipes, bursts, and other leakage management issues, the pipe market is turning to new materials (plastic) and new technologies (trenchless). More than $234 billion (USD) of capital expenditures (CAPEX) are forecasted over the next decade to address aging municipal water and wastewater pipe network infrastructure, according to Bluefield's forecasts. Precipitated by decades of underinvestment, municipal utilities are under increasing pressure to address deteriorating linear assets at a faster pace. Water losses through leaks for U.S. utilities average 15 percent annually, with some cities, towns, and communities losing more than half of all water pumped and treated for distribution to customers. As a result, rehabilitation of existing pipes is the fastest growing spend category, increasing annually from $253 million in 2019 to $576 million by 2028. Network expansions, particularly in high population growth across the sunbelt states (e.g. Texas and Arizona), will drive the lion's share of spending on new build.

The Aging Water Infrastructure (AWI) research program is part of EPA's larger effort called the Sustainable Water Infrastructure (SI) initiative. The SI initiative brings together drinking water and wastewater utility managers; trade associations; local watershed protection organizations; and federal, state, and local officials to ensure that all components of our nation's water infrastructure….drinking water treatment plants, drinking water distribution lines, sewer lines, and storage facilities….meet future needs. The AWI research program supports the four priority areas of the SI initiative's strategy: (1) Better Management - moving beyond compliance to sustainability and improved performance, (2) Full-cost Pricing - helping utilities to recognize the full cost of providing service over the long term, (3) Water Efficiency - promoting water efficiency in the residential and commercial sectors, (4) Watershed Approach - integrating watershed management principles and tools into utility planning and management practices. The driving force behind the SI initiative and the AWI research program is the "Clean Water and Drinking Water Infrastructure Gap Analysis." In this report, EPA estimated that if operation, maintenance, and capital investment remain at current levels, the potential funding shortage for drinking water and wastewater infrastructure could exceed $500 billion by 2020.

According to the new report released last week by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and Value of Water Campaign, the United States is underinvesting in its drinking water and wastewater systems, putting American households and the economy at risk. The report, "The Economic Benefits of Investing in Water Infrastructure: How a Failure to Act Would Affect the U.S. Economy Recovery," finds that as water infrastructure deteriorates and service disruptions increase, annual costs to American households due to water and wastewater failures will be seven times higher in 20 years than they are today -from $2 billion in 2019 to $14 billion by 2039.