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by Nicholas Borst |September 12th, 2012 It's an article of faith amongst many analysts that China's rapid urbanization will inevitably suck up any excess housing supply and boost consumption as new urbanites enter the middle class.

Posted by Kate Mackenzie on Aug 30 14:09. In our first post in this series, we examined the widely-held belief that China's steel demand will continue to rise at a rapid rate. FT Alphaville, along with others, contend that such forecasts are on shaky ground. This is, in part, because of the dubiousness of one of the underlying assumptions: that China will rapidly urbanise more of its population. (Here's a very recent example of this argument, from Stephen Roach.) The proportion Chinese living in urban areas just passed the 50 per cent mark in the past year but, the story goes, there is more to come. This will in turn mean more industrialisation, more modernisation, a bigger and consuming middle class and of course more GDP growth. In other words: [...] farmers who once led simple, subsistence-level lives now become factory and service workers in the city, reside in apartments furnished with appliances, occasionally eat out, and perhaps even send their kids to college. In the process, self-sufficient rural households are transformed into workers receiving higher wages and participating in the commodity economy of consumption. As such, urbanization is as much an economic and social transformation as it is a spatial and demographic process. Sounds great doesn't it? The above quote however comes from a paper by Kam Wing Chan in Eurasian Geography and Economics early this year. Chan is a professor of geography at the University of Washington, and he doesn't agree that this is how things will continue to play out for China.

A State Council directive made welcome changes to the household registration system, but so much more is needed

While there's broad agreement China will continue to urbanize rapidly, there is disagreement as to how exactly

China has finished the "urbanization of place" but not of people, and the main obstacle is the household registration system

Construction and Real Estate Hinder China's Growth By KEITH BRADSHER Published: September 9, 2012 CHENGDU, China - With more than 100 tall cranes on the skyline, this metropolis in western China looks vibrant at first glance despite the country's sharp economic slowdown.

International Comparative Analysis of Poverty in Asia: Urbanization, Migration and Social Policy Symposium held at Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China, November 1-4, 2012 Southwest Jiaotong University (SWJTU) and the Institute for Poverty Alleviation and International Development (IPAID) are jointly organizing a symposium in October 2012 on the effects of urbanization and poverty alleviation in Asia. The main purpose is to address the widening income gap between rural and urban areas in Asia in the past thirty years. Development scholars, researchers, and practitioners are invited to submit high-quality papers with a focus on the symposium theme of urbanization and migration in Asia and its affect on poverty in both rural and urban areas. The symposium aims to create a dialogue among scholars of Asian development studies to address effective urban and rural poverty reduction strategies. The symposium will focus on the following set of issues which include (but are not limited to): Rural development and urbanization in Asia International standards of poverty alleviation Access to land and land right education (rights, inequity, and poverty) Labor mobility and poverty Gender based income inequality Social policy to tackle poverty and inequality Housing, transportation and infrastructure development National policies and measures for the eradication of poverty The symposium will conclude with an excursion to disaster areas in Chengdu affected by the 2008 earthquake which killed an estimated 69,000 people. SWJTU has taken a lead in the recovery efforts and research cooperation in the field of poverty alleviation in Western China's less developed areas. Selected papers from the symposium will be published in a special edited volume of the Journal of Poverty Alleviation and International Development (JPAID) in 2013. Submission Deadlines Submission of a 500 word abstract is due by September 15, 2012. If accepted, SWJTU will communicate with you in

August 2nd, 2011 Author: Yuhan Zhang, Columbia University Published in: East Asia Forum. Economics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific [En ligne] Consulté le 23/08/2012 http://www.eastasiaforum.org While many Chinese pundits and scholars are applauding for China's Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) as a milestone for China's green revolution, the country's march to low energy consumption and low carbon economy is not going to be a smooth or straight one. China's five-year plans, albeit strategically sound, are not likely to change the short- and medium-term energy and climate landscapes. Challenges will remain [...]

Feature Story August 14, 2012 The year 2011 was a historic moment in the urbanization of China, as its urban population exceeded its rural population for the first time. About 350 million new urban residents are expected to migrate to cities over the coming 20 years. Urban development on such a scale is both a challenge and an opportunity for urban transport. A challenge, as current trends are unsustainable both at local and national level. Locally, the rapid growth in car ownership has enabled greater personal mobility for many but has also brought traffic congestion, accidents, and air pollution. Slow and congested transport systems are beginning to stifle the efficiency of the urban economy. The construction of new roads to accommodate traffic leads to urban sprawl and accelerated traffic growth and hampers the mobility of those who do not own a car. Nationally, excessive conversion of farmland for urban development consumes scarce land resources and impacts the country's ecological systems. Rising fuel consumption also endangers the nation's long-term energy security, while growing emissions from urban transport render the national objectives of CO2 reduction difficult to achieve. But this rapid urbanization also represents an opportunity, as the recognition of urban transport's spillover effects has led to a new policy emphasis on public transport priority and sustainable urban transport development. [...]

Full Text available. As some of the most rapidly urbanizing places in the world, China's cities have a unique relationship with global climate change. The economies found in Chinese cities are extremely resource and energy intensive; as a result, they produce significant levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This article provides comprehensive and detailed emissions inventories for Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin, which were found to be responsible for 12.8, 10.7, and 11.9 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per capita (t CO2-eq/capita), respectively, in 2006. The majority of emissions were from electricity production, heating and industrial fuel use, and ground transportation. The prevalence of coal in the energy supply mix (including up to 98% in Tianjin) was a fundamental cause of high energy emissions. Non-energy emissions from industrial processes were also significant, including emissions from cement and steel production. The GHG inventories for Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin point to sectors requiring the most attention in terms of low-carbon growth. Compared to ten other global cities, Chinese cities are among the highest per capita emitters, alluding to the important challenge China faces of reducing emissions while improving the quality of life for urban residents. Accordingly, this article concludes with a discussion of the opportunities and issues concerning low-carbon growth in China, including the potential for renewable energy and the difficulties associated with emissions relocation and policy adoption.

The Urban China Initiative (UCI) had its biggest event of the year on September 7th in Tsinghua Science Park - the 2012 Annual Forum, inspiring enlightening discussions among participants from public, private and academic sectors to develop policy thinking that will help addressChina's urbanization challenges.

L'Organisation mondiale du commerce met en place un groupe de concertation pour régler le différend qui oppose la Chine à un front constitué des États-Unis, du Japon et de l'Union européenne sur la question des terres rares. Pékin est accusé d'imposer des quotas et des restrictions d'exportation en violation des règlements de l'OMC. Entre 90 et 97% des terres rares sont produites en Chine, qui dispose également d'un monopole total dans la production des terres dites "lourdes", utilisées dans de nombreuses industries de haute technologie.

Anna Lora-Wainwright, Yiyun Zhang, Yunmei Wu, and Benjamin Van Rooij DOI: 10.1086/666582 The China Journal July 2012, No. 68: 106-124. Available on JSTOR

Data gaps hobbling trial carbon markets Xu Nan Liu Shuang August 09, 2012 Seven Chinese regions are due to launch emissions-trading schemes next year. They will struggle to do so, write Liu Shuang and Xu Nan. Late last October, China's top economic planning body - the National Development and Reform Commission - instructed the cities of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing and Shenzhen, plus Hubei and Guangdong provinces, to get ready to run carbon-trading trials. These are not China's first experiments with emissions trading. In fact, the country has of late seen a proliferation of exchanges: according to Chinese newspaper 21st Century Business Herald, by the time of last year's announcement, many provinces and cities were already setting up their own carbon exchanges, or "energy and environment exchanges" - which in almost all cases include trading of emissions rights. But to date, the platforms up and running are either voluntary or tied into the UN clean development mechanism. Some places, including Chengdu, Ningxia and Xinjiang, are either considering similar exchanges, or planning to host branches of the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange, though these tend to mean nothing more than one employee in a single office. The seven Beijing-backed, mandatory trials kick-started last October represent a new level of ambition, however. Ten months on, how are they progressing? The short answer is: slowly. [...]

Zhang Chun Wang Haotong August 03, 2012 China's low-carbon city programmes are doing well on public awareness, but an NGO survey finds little evidence of greener habits. Only a small proportion of people in China's low-carbon pilot cities are living "low-carbon lives" in spite of widespread knowledge of the green agenda, a year-long survey of household energy consumption carried out by Beijing-based NGO Green Beagle suggests. The study of habits in eight Chinese cities identified as green leaders by China's top economic planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission, involved 3,200 questionnaires and interviews with three to five households in different income brackets in each region. The NGO wanted to find out if inhabitants of these places had heard about "low-carbon" lifestyles and whether they were making efforts to reduce their own environmental footprint through their daily choices. Under the "low-carbon" pilot scheme, which launched in 2010, the eight cities - Tianjin, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Xiamen, Hangzhou, Nanchang, Guiyang and Baoding - are trying to find ways of reducing carbon emissions while continuing to grow economically (Beijing and Shanghai were added to the list in 2011, but are treated as a separate category). Five provinces are charged with the same task: Guangdong, Liaoning, Hubei, Shanxi and Yunnan. If they perform well, they will be treated as an example for the rest of the country.[...]

China's Urban New Area September 7, Wenjin Hotel, Beijing The year 2011 marks a milestone in China's urbanization. For the first time in history, China's urban population surpassed that of rural areas. According to the World Bank, China's urbanization is poised to grow dramatically over the coming two decades. And the increase in the urban population will be the equivalent of more than one Tokyo (over 13 million) each year as the share of urban dwellers in the total population climbs to two-thirds in 2030. The Chinese government has been reiterating that urbanization is a key driver of China's domestic consumption and a long-lasting engine of China' economic powerhouse. How should China continue its urbanization process? How should China cope with challenges rising from political, social, economic and technological fields? What international experiences and local pilot explorations are worth spreading? By hosting the 2012 Annual Forum, the Urban China Initiative hopes to inspire enlightening discussions among participants from public, private and academic sectors to find clues that will help address those above questions.

2/08/2012 The Urban China Initiative will hold the 2012 Annual Forum on September 7 (8:40am - 6:00pm) at Wenjin Hotel in Beijing. The forum will feature leading urban experts, government officials and practitioners to cover a broad range of topics. UCI hopes to inspire enlightening discussions to address China's prominent urban challenges. (Click here for full brochure) The forum is free, but registration is required. To enroll for the forum, please complete the following registration form. Note that your registration will not guarantee access to the forum, we will send confirmation letter by August 31. Thank you! Please note that the agenda is subject to further minor adjustments. UCI will make timely updates. Please contact us via contact@urbanchinainitiative.org or (86)10 8525-5245 for inquiry.

Authors: Chao Li (University of Waikato) John Gibson (University of Waikato) Abstract China's local populations can be counted in two ways; by how many people have hukou household registration from each place and by how many people actually reside in each place. The counts differ by the non-hukou migrants - people that move from their place of registration - who have grown from fewer than five million when reform began in 1978 to over 200 million by 2010. For most of the first three decades of the reform era, the hukou count was used to produce per capita GDP figures. In coastal provinces the resident count is many millions more than the hukou count, while for migrant-sending provinces it is the reverse, creating a systematic and time-varying distortion in provincial GDP per capita. Moreover, a sharp discontinuity occurred when provinces recently switched from the hukou count to the resident count when reporting GDP per capita. A double-count also resulted because some provinces switched before others and initial resident counts were incomplete. This paper describes the changing definition of provincial populations in China and their impact on inequality in provincial GDP per capita. We show that much of the apparent increase in inter-provincial inequality disappears once a consistent series of GDP per resident is used.

Authors : Richard Dobbs (Director of the McKinsey Global Institute) Jaana Remes (McKinsey Global Institute senior fellow) In : The Cities issue. A "Foreign policy" special report, 17 Sept/Oct. 2012 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/08/13/introducing_the_most_dynamic_cities_of_2025 (site consulté le 17/08/2012) Introducing … The Most Dynamic Cities of 2025 An exclusive look at the 75 powerhouses of the urban revolution. BY RICHARD DOBBS, JAANA REMES | SEPT/OCT 2012 The list of the world's most dynamic cities is here. If there's any bright spot in an otherwise dim outlook for the global economy, it's the rise of cities. With fragile growth in Europe and the United States, the shift in economic balance toward the East and South is happening with unprecedented speed and scale -- and it's happening through urbanization. Quite simply, we are witnessing the biggest economic transformation the world has ever seen as the populations of cities in emerging markets expand and see their incomes rise as never before, producing massive geopolitical shifts and a wave of new consumers whose spending power will change the way the world shops and invests. COMMENTS (4) SHARE: Share on twitter Twitter Share on reddit Reddit Bookmark and Share More... More than ever, cities matter. Today, just 600 urban centers generate about 60 percent of global GDP. But though 600 cities will continue to account for the same share of global GDP in 2025, this elite group will have a very different membership. Over the next 15 years, the urban world's center of gravity will move farther south and, even more decisively, east. [...]

Urbanization today is powering a transformation in the prosperity of billions of people in the world's emerging economies. The global consuming classes -- made up of people with incomes of more than $10 a day, sufficient for discretionary spending on goods and services beyond the basics of food, shelter and clothes -- will grow to 4.2 billion in 2025, up from about 1.2 billion in 1990. And more than half of those 4.2 billion will live in only about 440 mostly mid-sized cities in emerging markets. Consumers living in cities could spend an additional $20 trillion a year by 2025, a powerful growth opportunity for companies and the global economy.[...] En ligne, site consulté le : 17/08/2012