Copper end use trends

Another application of our versatile material.

One of three (non-ferrous) metal companies in the top 100 most sustainable companies https://www.corporateknights.com/reports/2020-global-100/2020-global-100-ranking-15795648/ (the three are Teck, Umicore and Sims).

"Chinese commodity prices collapsed on the first day of trading after the Lunar New Year break as investors returned to markets gripped by fear over the impact the coronavirus will have on demand in the world's biggest consumer of raw materials. The country's three major commodity exchanges were hit by a fevered bout of selling as they reopened with Chinese traders getting their first opportunity to catch up with losses inflicted on overseas markets while they had been on holiday."

The full impact on copper is not known yet. We will have to wait and see how the health issue impacts manufacturing and also wait to see the China government fiscal response. Seemingly anything else at this time is speculation.

Time will tell and media does overhype. What I found noteworthy that these stories were linked to Dr Copper, which rarely happens. Agreed that we do not need to stir the hive, but I alerted Joe that he may receive lots of interest for the January edition of his index.

Vestas reports adding 12.9 GW to its installed capacity, which allows us to estimate its copper use at around 50,000 tons per year. They have installed over 100 GW cumulatively, of which over 80 GW in operation.

"The global market for conductive inks is estimated at >$2.5 billion in annual revenues and will continue to grow as applications proliferate in sensors, wearables, smart packaging, flexible electronics, OLEDs, thin-film transistors, photovoltaics, smart textiles, automotive and more."

Vandalism and poaching are likely to become rising issues with more copper in infrastructure. Also photovoltaic farms may suffer, though these are easier to protect since less distributed.

Revisiting this older reference, it is worth a closer look. I was initially skeptical about its #1 solution, but it appears to check out.

Key issues for 2020: supply disruptions, water shortages - less complex concentrates - smelter closures - industry consolidation - range-bound market - tight markets for scrap and blister - depressed acid prices.

Another one in a series of studies on this topic. This one predicts an 87,000% increase in the demand for battery materials which is not very helpful. Exponential extrapolation from a small basis over a long time horizon can basically come up with any growth figure. The logistic growth curve is a much better and proven model for technology transitions.

"Demand for cobalt, copper, lithium, cadmium, and rare earth elements needed for solar photovoltaics, batteries, electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, fuel cells, and nuclear reactors is set to explode in the coming years as countries around the world invest heavily in greening their economies".

Orginal source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6473/30 (though (also behind a paywall) and http://www.sussex.ac.uk/broadcast/read/50598. The latter mentions the 87000% figure referred to in the above comment.

"We have to think again about transportation. We cannot just continue down a dead end (cul de sac) just because it's convenient and avoids disruption"

According to this (marketing) conference, we will all be flying around in personal drones by 2025. Let's wait and see :-). One thing is sure: lots of change in the transport sector.