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Wade Ren

The end of Bretton Woods 2? - 0 views

  • The Bretton Woods 2 system – where China and then the oil-exporters provided (subsidized) financing to the US to sustain their exports – will come close to ending, at least temporarily. If the US and Europe are not importing much, the rest of the world won’t be exporting much.
  • And rather than ending with a whimper, Bretton Woods 2 may end with a bang. In some sense Bretton Woods 2 has been on life support for a while now. China’s recent export growth has depended far more on Europe than on the US. US demand for non-oil imports peaked in 2006. One irony of the past year is that the US was borrowing far more from China that it was buying from China. Campaign rhetoric that the US was paying for Saudi oil with funds borrowed from China isn’t far off – though it leaves out the fact that the US also borrows from Saudi Arabia to pay for Venezuelan, Mexican and Nigerian oil.
  • If Bretton Woods 2 ends in 2009 – if US demand for imports falls sharply in the last part of 2008 and early 2009, bringing the US trade deficit down – it won’t have ended in the way Nouriel and I outlined back in late 2004 and early 2005. We postulated that foreign demand for US debt would dry up – pushing up US Treasury rates and delivering a nasty shock to a housing-centric economy. As Brad DeLong notes, it didn’t quite play out that way. The US and European banking system collapsed before the balance of financial terror collapsed. Dr. DeLong writes: All of us from Lawrence Summers to John Taylor were expecting a very different financial crisis. We were expecting the ‘Balance of Financial Terror’ between Asia and America to collapse and produce chaos. We are not having that financial crisis. Instead we are having a very different financial crisis. Catastrophic failures of risk management throughout the entire banking sector caused a relatively minor collapse in housing prices to freeze up global finance to a degree that has not been seen since the Great Depression. The end result of this crisis though could be rather similar: a sharp contraction in credit, a fall in US economic activity, a fall in US imports and a fall in the amount of foreign financing the US needs.* The US government is (possibly) trying to offset the fall in private demand by borrowing more and spending more — but as of now there is realistic risk that the fall in private activity will trump the fiscal stimulus.
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  • Or, to put it more succinctly, Bretton Woods 2, as it evolved, hinged both on the willingness of foreign central banks to take the currency risk associated with lending to the US at low rates in dollars despite the United States large current account deficit AND the willingness of private financial intermediaries to take the credit risk associated with lending at low rates to highly-indebted US households.
  • But now US financial institutions are neither willing nor able to take on the risk of lending even more to US households. For a while the US government was able to ramp up its lending to households (notably through the Agencies) and in the process effectively take over the function previously performed by the private financial system (over the last four quarters, the flow of funds data indicates that the Agencies provided around $800 billion of net credit to US households). But now the US government is struggling to keep the financial system from collapsing. It doesn’t seem like it will able to avoid a sharp fall in the overall availability of credit.
  • It is now clear how the financial sector kept profits up: it took on more risk, as it shifted from borrowing short to buy safe long-term assets (Treasuries and Agencies) to borrowing short to buy risky long-term assets. Leverage in the system also increased (and for some broker dealers that seems to be an understatement), as more and more financial institutions believed that the US had entered into an era of little macroeconomic or financial volatility. The net result seems to have been a truly explosive concentration of risk in the hands of a core set of financial intermediaries in the US and Europe. Securitization – it seems – actually didn’t disperse risk into the hands of institutions able to handle it.
  • I hope that the process of adjustment now underway isn’t as sharp as I fear. The US economy gradually can shift from producing MBS for sale to US investors flush with cash from the sale of safe securities to China and Saudi Arabia to producing goods and services for export – but it cannot shift from churning out complex debt securities to producing goods and services overnight. Indeed, in a slowing US and global economy, improvements in the US deficit will likely come from faster falls in US imports than in US exports – not from ongoing growth in US exports.
  • But right now it looks like there is a real risk that the adjustment won’t be gradual. And it certainly looks like the flow of Chinese (and Gulf) savings to US households over the past few years has produced one of the largest misallocations of global capital in recent history.
  • US taxpayers are going to be hit with a large tab for the credit risk taken on by undercapitalized financial intermediaries. Chinese taxpayers may get hit with a similar tab for the losses their central bank incurred by overpaying for US and European assets as part of its policy of holding its exchange rate down. The TARP is around 5% of US GDP. There are plausible estimates that China’s currency losses will prove to be of comparable magnitude. Charles Dumas puts the cost at above 5% of GDP: “Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research estimates that China makes 1-2 per cent on its (largely) dollar reserves. It then loses up to 10 per cent on the exchange rate and suffers a Chinese inflation rate of 6 per cent for a total real return in renminbi of about minus 15 per cent. That is a loss of $270bn a year, or a stunning 7-8 per cent of gross domestic product.”
  • Jboss — if some of the Chinese inflow could be redirected into investment in alternative energy, that would indeed be a win/ win. Some infrastructure bank style ideas have promise in my view — basically, the flow that used to go to freddie/ fannie could go to wind farms and the like. I would rather see more adjustment in china (i.e. more investment in Chinese infrastructure) but during the transition, if there is one, to a lower Chinese surplus, redirecting chinese financing toward new energy tech would be offer real benefits.
  • China likes 3rd generation nuclear power. Safe, lower cost than NG or coal, very much lower cost than coal with carbon sequestering, and zero carbon footprint. Wind is about 4X more expensive than our electric costs now. That’s in an area with consistent wind. Solar is worse. I don’t know if we can sucker them into investing in our technical fairy tales. Here’s a easy primer on 3rd gen nukes. http://nuclearinfo.net/Nuclearpower/WebHomeCostOfNuclearPower
    • Wade Ren
       
      is this true?
  • btw, solar thermal installations are so easy & affordable to retrofit onto existing structures, it’s amazing that there aren’t more of them here…until you realize that they work to decentralize energy. cedric — china is already doing it in china. they are way ahead of the curve over there. my partner brought back some photos of shanghai — rows of middle class homes each with a small solar panel on top. and that’s just the tip of the iceberg — an architect friend just came back from beijing and wants to move to china (he’s into designing self-powering structures and is incredibly frustrated by the bureaucracy and cost-prohibitive measures in the US).
  • I went to engineering school right after the Arab Oil Embargo, and alternative energy was a hot topic then. All the same stuff you hear of nowadays. They even offered entire courses on it , which I took. Then my first mini career was in the power plant biz, before Volker killed it with interest rates and the Saudies killed any interest in alt. energy with their big oil field discovery. For the last 5 years I’ve been researching what’s changed, and it is frighteningly little. Solar cells are still expensive and only have a 15% conversion efficiency. They developed the new cost reduced film technology, but that knocks down efficiency to 7%. Wind power works where there is wind constantly. Generators are mature technology and are already 90 some percent efficient. Geothermal, tidal, ect. work where they are available. Looks like coal gasification and synfuel is out because it makes too much CO2. Good news is 3rd gen nuclear is way better than 1st gen plants. Hybrid cars are good, and battery technology is finally getting barely good enough for all electric cars to be practical.
  • According to news report today, Japan’s trade surplus is less than 1 billion $ in September 08, a whopping 94% decrease compared to September 07. Does it imply that going forward Japan can not buy as much treasury as before?
Panos Kotseras

USA - Southwire sells second wirerod system to South Korean Taihan Electric Wire Co - 0 views

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    It was reported that Southwire sold a second copper wirerod system to South Korean Taihan Electric Wire Co. Southwire will engage in the design of all the operating equipment for Taihan Electric, including the installation of its SCR 6000 system, which is capable of producing 260,000 tonnes of copper wirerod per annum at a rate of 40 tonnes per hour. The fist copper wirerod system was delivered to Taihan Electric in 1980. In total, Southwire has sold more than 80 continuous-cast SCR systems worldwide.
Colin Bennett

Prysmian power transmission infrastructures/cables - 0 views

  • Prysmian’s product portfolio at MEE 2011 will focus on the full range of state-of-the-art power cables including HV and EHV underground and submarine cable systems for applications such as interconnections between power grids, links between natural or artificial islands and the mainland, and connections to, or between, offshore oil production and wind power generation facilities. Prysmian will also be presenting a wide range of cables and systems for the Oil, Gas and Petrochemical industry – complex and integrated systems for power transmission and distribution, control and instrumentation for industrial applications - including innovative specialties such as Drylam™ and Airguard™ Cable system, cable solutions with enhanced features and reduced environmental impact, specifically designed for critical environments. To complete the available portfolio FP® fire resistant cables, Umbilicals and power distribution cable solutions will also be on display.
Colin Bennett

LS Cable & System vigorously develops new global markets - 0 views

  • The Kazakhstani project is designed to resolve power deficiencies caused by expansive urban and industrial development in Almaty, the capital city. LS Cable & System will provide products, such as 127km of 220kV level extra high-voltage transmission cables and joints, and technical consultation until August next year. In addition, 140km of OPGW (optical ground wire, see glossary) and 1,100km of 220kV level gap conductors (see glossary) will be supplied together with installation support by year end to San Lorenzo and Guarambare for national backbone power and communication network implementation in Paraguay.
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    "The Kazakhstani project is designed to resolve power deficiencies caused by expansive urban and industrial development in Almaty, the capital city. LS Cable & System will provide products, such as 127km of 220kV level extra high-voltage transmission cables and joints, and technical consultation until August next year. In addition, 140km of OPGW (optical ground wire, see glossary) and 1,100km of 220kV level gap conductors (see glossary) will be supplied together with installation support by year end to San Lorenzo and Guarambare for national backbone power and communication network implementation in Paraguay. "
Colin Bennett

Ultracapacitors Deployed in Ireland Microgrid Energy Storage System - 0 views

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    "Maxwell Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq: MXWL), today announced that Freqcon GmbH, a German developer and distributor of renewable energy systems, has deployed an energy storage system for the Tallaght Smart Grid Testbed in Ireland that uses Maxwell ultracapacitors and lithium-ion batteries to support grid stability in both residential and industrial settings. Freqcon's Microgrid Stabilizer addresses the electricity intermittency challenges that accompany high renewable energy penetration"
Colin Bennett

Unleashing the power of Vehicle-to-Grid technology. Can we? Will we? - 1 views

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    "In the first of a series of exclusive articles, James Gordon explores the latest developments in V2G systems and asks if the technology has the power to reshape global electricity distribution networks.…. It is the world's largest consumer of energy(1), and with over half of China's 1.3 billion population choosing to live in its sprawling and gridlocked super-cities, the demand for power has never been greater. But ensuring that the 680 million who live in China's megalopolises receive a steady stream of electricity is no easy task. However, while the solution - to install a network of long distance super-grids - has proved to be effective, it has come at great cost. This highly innovative smart grid infrastructure that the State Grid Corporation of China, has been specially designed to transmit ultra-high-voltage-direct-current (UHVDC) at over 600,000 volts to China's main population centres from rural areas rich in energy(2). America, India, Germany and Brazil are also incorporating UHDVC lines into their grids, but Britain, whose population is expected to grow from 64,875,165 (2015) to 77,568,588 by 2050(3), is only in the early stages of exploring the potential of the technology according to the Energy Networks Association. And while the UK's Utility giants may yet decide to invest billions of pounds in these high-tech super grids, a fully functioning next-generation Battery Electric Vehicle to Grid (V2G) charging system, located in Birmingham, the UK's second city, may mean they never need to. But how could this potentially game-changing technology, which has been installed at Aston University's European Bioenergy Research Institute (EBRI), one day save the National Grid and the tax-payer billions of pounds?"
Colin Bennett

Energy Efficient HVAC Systems Advancing - 0 views

  • Energy consumption by heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems accounts for roughly 40 percent of total building energy consumption, and in turn, buildings account for 35 percent to 40 percent of total worldwide energy consumption.  Thus, HVAC energy consumption in commercial buildings is a key contributor to total global energy consumption.  Driven by tightening energy efficiency regulations and by demand for higher-efficiency buildings, the technology for efficient HVAC systems is advancing.
Colin Bennett

LS Cable & System, first in Korea to enter European submarine cable market - 0 views

  • With the order, LS Cable & System is making an official entry into Europe, the world’s most advanced offshore wind power generation market. The scale of European offshore wind power generation market is forecast to more than double from $13.5 billion in 2012 (approx. KRW 14.8 trillion) to $30 billion in 2020 (KRW 32.8 trillion). Accordingly, the submarine cable market is expected to grow exponentially and, thus LS Cable & System is forecasting a sales increase in the European submarine cable market following its recent performance in the U.S. and the Middle East.
Colin Bennett

Hardening the System - Undergrounding - 1 views

  • Though mostly immune to wind-related damage, undergrounding facilities are prone to flooding. Undergrounding also presents significant challenges, namely longer repair time and much higher repair costs; damage to underground facilities from Sandy reinforced that. Investor-owned utilities in North Carolina compared five years of underground and overhead reliability data and found the frequency of outages on underground systems was 50% less than for overhead systems, but the average duration of an underground outage was 58% longer.
Colin Bennett

EIA: U.S. electric system interconnections - 2 views

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    "In the United States, the power system consists of more than 7,300 power plants, nearly 160,000 miles of high-voltage power lines, and millions of low-voltage power lines and distribution transformers, which connect 145 million customers."
Glycon Garcia

Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy | Video on TED.com - 0 views

  • Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy
  • What's the key to using alternative energy, like solar and wind? Storage -- so we can have power on tap even when the sun's not out and the wind's not blowing. In this accessible, inspiring talk, Donald Sadoway takes to the blackboard to show us the future of large-scale batteries that store renewable energy. As he says: "We need to think about the problem differently. We need to think big. We need to think cheap." Donald S
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    "Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy Tweet this talk! (we'll add the headline and the URL) Post to: Share on Twitter Email This Favorite Download inShare Share on StumbleUpon Share on Reddit Share on Facebook TED Conversations Got an idea, question, or debate inspired by this talk? Start a TED Conversation, or join one of these: Green Home Energy=Hydrogen Generators-alternative sources Started by Kathleen Gilligan-Smith 1 Comment What is the real missing link in renewable energy? Started by Enrico Petrucco 8 Comments Comment on this Talk 60 total comments Sign in to add comments or Join (It's free and fast!) Sort By: smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Nice smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Good David Mackey 0 Reply 3 hours ago: Superb invention, but I would suggest one more standard mantra that they should move on from and that is the idea of power being supplied by a centralised grid. This technology seems to me to be much more beneficial on a local scale, what if every home had its own battery, then home power generation becomes economically more viable for everyone. If you could show that a system like this could pay for itself in say 5 years then every home would want one. Plus for this to be implemented on a large scale requires massive investment that could be decades away. Share the technology and lets get it in homes by next year. Great ted talk. Jon Senior 0 Reply 1 hour ago: I agree 100%. Localised energy production would also make energy consumers more conscious of their consumption and encourage efforts to reduce it. We can invent and invent all we want, but the fast solution to allowing renewable energies to take centre stage is to reduce the base energy draw. With lower baseline consumption, smaller "always on" generators are required to keep the grid operational. Town and house-l
Colin Bennett

Middle East infrastructure - LS Cable & System wins two contracts for 157km EHV - 0 views

  • Of the two projects, the former was initiated when Qatar realized that their current power grid could not effectively keep up with the ever increasing power demand generated by the continual economic development and urbanization happening within their borders. For this project, LS Cable & System will supply a total of 157km of 220kV level extra high-voltage cables and joint kits to the Doha area by July 2013. The latter is to supply Hyundai E&C who won a contract in 2010 to renovate the 2006 Doha Asian Games athletes’ village and office buildings into a four-building high-tech medical center. For this project, LS Cable & System will deliver bus ducts that are popularly used in buildings and factories to transmit large amounts of electricity through a small space. Analysts point out that Middle East countries are currently promoting petrochemical, refinery and power plant projects as well as large-scale public works and construction projects to boost their economies with extra spending.
Colin Bennett

Association of European Automotive and Industrial Battery Manufacturers - Sustainability Report - 0 views

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    The battery technology for plug-in HEVs and EVs (both fixed and removable) has evolved tremendously over the last decade with the introduction of lithium-based batteries complementing lead-, nickel- and sodium-based technologies. These technologies will all continue to have a significant impact on electro-mobility as they may give cost and/or performance advantages for specific applications, for example as start-stop and hybrid solutions. The selection of a technology depends on the requirements for performance, life and cost for a given application. Given the diversity of possible operating modes, there is no one battery system or technology that covers the entire range of application needs sufficiently. On the contrary, different battery energy storage technologies exist and each of them has a role to play in the future as the best solution to the needs of a system depending on their specific attributes: * Lead-based: for start-stop micro application, up to mild HEVs * Nickel-based: for HEV applications only * Lithium-based: for HEV, plug-in HEV and full EVs * Sodium-based: for Plug-in HEV and full EVs
Colin Bennett

If renewables can meet 80% of US electricity needs, what are we waiting for? - 0 views

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    According to NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures Study, the increased electric system flexibility needed to enable electricity supply-demand balance with high levels of renewable generation, can come from a portfolio of supply and demand side options, including: · Flexible conventional generation · Grid storage · New transmission · More responsive loads · Changes in power system operations
Colin Bennett

Wireless Charging Systems for Electric Vehicles Will Surpass 300,000 in Annual Sales by 2022 - 0 views

  • Wireless charging systems for electric vehicles (EVs) offer several advantages over conventional plug-in technology, foremost among them unparalleled convenience for EV owners.  Until recently, these systems were in the R&D and pilot stages only, but now products have begun to reach the market, and several major EV manufacturers have plans to offer models with wireless charging capability in the 2015-2016 timeframe. 
Colin Bennett

Leoni inaugurates fourth Chinese wiring systems plant in Langfang - 1 views

  • The plant in Langfang has a production area of around 20.000 square metres and will give work to at least 2,500 employees once operating at full capacity. Taking into account the complexity of electrical distribution systems for premium passenger cars, the new plant will process about 3 million meters of various automotive cables, 1.5 million connectors and thousands of components per day, combining them to complete wiring systems. Every single product, weighing up to 35 kilogrammes each, will be assembled with most modern equipment and entirely tested in order to assure zero defect policy before being shipped just in sequence to the customer’s manufacturing site.
Colin Bennett

Automotive HVAC Market - Global Trends & Forecast to 2018 - 1 views

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    "The report focuses on automotive HVAC and Cabin comfort systems, which have cemented their place in a vehicle with the growing demand for luxuries. The automotive HVAC systems which were first introduced in 1930s are standard equipment in almost every vehicle in the developed markets such as U.S. and Europe. The key drivers behind the growth of this market are the rising amount of time spent by people in their vehicles and the growing popularity of private vehicles over public transport. The Asia-Pacific region is expected to be the largest segment in automotive HVAC market owing to the large vehicle production levels in countries such China, India, and Japan."
Colin Bennett

New Approach to Developing Thermoelectric Materials Doubles Efficiency | Green News | Eco News - 0 views

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    The new material is most effective between 450° and 950°F-a typical \ntemperature range for power systems such as automobile engines. The application \nof TE material to automotive waste heat recovery systems is of interest to the \nresearch team, and to one of the project funders, BSST Corporation.
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Spain to Cut Subsidies for Solar PV, not Solar Thermal - 0 views

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    Last week the Spanish government announced plans to cut subsidies for solar photovoltaic (PV) power by about 75%. Although the nation expects to surpass its 2010 goal for installed solar by four fold, the down side is that generous subsidies for the industry have resulted in a ballooning tariff deficit for the country, which has risen to 4.85 billion euros, upfrom 745 million last year. Reuters reported that lending to the Spanish photovoltaic plants has risen to $3.59 billion in the year to day, up from $230.9 million euros last year and $192.44 million in 2006. As a result, the Spanish government will as the energy regulator to cap subsidies for new PV solar capacity at 300 megawatts (MW) per year--200 MW for rooftop systems and 100 MW for ground-mounted systems, which have been the highest growth area. CSP has been slower than PV technology in its emergence on the renewable energy scene, but expectations for the technology, which focuses the heat of the sun to produce steam to drive electricity producing turbines. Projects underway in the U.S. and Spain are expected to produce electricity that is cost-equivalent to electricity produced from burning coal or natural gas.
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SolarGenerations Program Expands to Include Wind & Hydro - 0 views

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    Sierra Pacific Power and Nevada Power Company have announced that they are expanding their SolarGenerations renewable energy programs to include cash incentives for wind and hydroelectric power systems as well as solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Both Nevada utilities are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Sierra Pacific Resources. "These projects deliver benefits on many levels: they reduce energy bills, provide learning opportunities, help the environment, and increase our energy independence by taking advantage of abundant natural energy sources right in our own backyard." -- John Hargrove, Program Manage, Sierra Pacific & Nevada Power The last session of the Nevada State Legislature made the SolarGenerations demonstration program permanent, doubling the total amount of installed photovoltaic energy eligible for rebates from 1,900 kilowatts (kW) to 3,760 kW, and adding the new WindGenerations and HydroGenerations programs. Together, these programs are called RenewableGenerations.
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