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Wade Ren

The end of Bretton Woods 2? - 0 views

  • The Bretton Woods 2 system – where China and then the oil-exporters provided (subsidized) financing to the US to sustain their exports – will come close to ending, at least temporarily. If the US and Europe are not importing much, the rest of the world won’t be exporting much.
  • And rather than ending with a whimper, Bretton Woods 2 may end with a bang. In some sense Bretton Woods 2 has been on life support for a while now. China’s recent export growth has depended far more on Europe than on the US. US demand for non-oil imports peaked in 2006. One irony of the past year is that the US was borrowing far more from China that it was buying from China. Campaign rhetoric that the US was paying for Saudi oil with funds borrowed from China isn’t far off – though it leaves out the fact that the US also borrows from Saudi Arabia to pay for Venezuelan, Mexican and Nigerian oil.
  • If Bretton Woods 2 ends in 2009 – if US demand for imports falls sharply in the last part of 2008 and early 2009, bringing the US trade deficit down – it won’t have ended in the way Nouriel and I outlined back in late 2004 and early 2005. We postulated that foreign demand for US debt would dry up – pushing up US Treasury rates and delivering a nasty shock to a housing-centric economy. As Brad DeLong notes, it didn’t quite play out that way. The US and European banking system collapsed before the balance of financial terror collapsed. Dr. DeLong writes: All of us from Lawrence Summers to John Taylor were expecting a very different financial crisis. We were expecting the ‘Balance of Financial Terror’ between Asia and America to collapse and produce chaos. We are not having that financial crisis. Instead we are having a very different financial crisis. Catastrophic failures of risk management throughout the entire banking sector caused a relatively minor collapse in housing prices to freeze up global finance to a degree that has not been seen since the Great Depression. The end result of this crisis though could be rather similar: a sharp contraction in credit, a fall in US economic activity, a fall in US imports and a fall in the amount of foreign financing the US needs.* The US government is (possibly) trying to offset the fall in private demand by borrowing more and spending more — but as of now there is realistic risk that the fall in private activity will trump the fiscal stimulus.
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  • Or, to put it more succinctly, Bretton Woods 2, as it evolved, hinged both on the willingness of foreign central banks to take the currency risk associated with lending to the US at low rates in dollars despite the United States large current account deficit AND the willingness of private financial intermediaries to take the credit risk associated with lending at low rates to highly-indebted US households.
  • But now US financial institutions are neither willing nor able to take on the risk of lending even more to US households. For a while the US government was able to ramp up its lending to households (notably through the Agencies) and in the process effectively take over the function previously performed by the private financial system (over the last four quarters, the flow of funds data indicates that the Agencies provided around $800 billion of net credit to US households). But now the US government is struggling to keep the financial system from collapsing. It doesn’t seem like it will able to avoid a sharp fall in the overall availability of credit.
  • It is now clear how the financial sector kept profits up: it took on more risk, as it shifted from borrowing short to buy safe long-term assets (Treasuries and Agencies) to borrowing short to buy risky long-term assets. Leverage in the system also increased (and for some broker dealers that seems to be an understatement), as more and more financial institutions believed that the US had entered into an era of little macroeconomic or financial volatility. The net result seems to have been a truly explosive concentration of risk in the hands of a core set of financial intermediaries in the US and Europe. Securitization – it seems – actually didn’t disperse risk into the hands of institutions able to handle it.
  • I hope that the process of adjustment now underway isn’t as sharp as I fear. The US economy gradually can shift from producing MBS for sale to US investors flush with cash from the sale of safe securities to China and Saudi Arabia to producing goods and services for export – but it cannot shift from churning out complex debt securities to producing goods and services overnight. Indeed, in a slowing US and global economy, improvements in the US deficit will likely come from faster falls in US imports than in US exports – not from ongoing growth in US exports.
  • But right now it looks like there is a real risk that the adjustment won’t be gradual. And it certainly looks like the flow of Chinese (and Gulf) savings to US households over the past few years has produced one of the largest misallocations of global capital in recent history.
  • US taxpayers are going to be hit with a large tab for the credit risk taken on by undercapitalized financial intermediaries. Chinese taxpayers may get hit with a similar tab for the losses their central bank incurred by overpaying for US and European assets as part of its policy of holding its exchange rate down. The TARP is around 5% of US GDP. There are plausible estimates that China’s currency losses will prove to be of comparable magnitude. Charles Dumas puts the cost at above 5% of GDP: “Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research estimates that China makes 1-2 per cent on its (largely) dollar reserves. It then loses up to 10 per cent on the exchange rate and suffers a Chinese inflation rate of 6 per cent for a total real return in renminbi of about minus 15 per cent. That is a loss of $270bn a year, or a stunning 7-8 per cent of gross domestic product.”
  • Jboss — if some of the Chinese inflow could be redirected into investment in alternative energy, that would indeed be a win/ win. Some infrastructure bank style ideas have promise in my view — basically, the flow that used to go to freddie/ fannie could go to wind farms and the like. I would rather see more adjustment in china (i.e. more investment in Chinese infrastructure) but during the transition, if there is one, to a lower Chinese surplus, redirecting chinese financing toward new energy tech would be offer real benefits.
  • China likes 3rd generation nuclear power. Safe, lower cost than NG or coal, very much lower cost than coal with carbon sequestering, and zero carbon footprint. Wind is about 4X more expensive than our electric costs now. That’s in an area with consistent wind. Solar is worse. I don’t know if we can sucker them into investing in our technical fairy tales. Here’s a easy primer on 3rd gen nukes. http://nuclearinfo.net/Nuclearpower/WebHomeCostOfNuclearPower
    • Wade Ren
       
      is this true?
  • btw, solar thermal installations are so easy & affordable to retrofit onto existing structures, it’s amazing that there aren’t more of them here…until you realize that they work to decentralize energy. cedric — china is already doing it in china. they are way ahead of the curve over there. my partner brought back some photos of shanghai — rows of middle class homes each with a small solar panel on top. and that’s just the tip of the iceberg — an architect friend just came back from beijing and wants to move to china (he’s into designing self-powering structures and is incredibly frustrated by the bureaucracy and cost-prohibitive measures in the US).
  • I went to engineering school right after the Arab Oil Embargo, and alternative energy was a hot topic then. All the same stuff you hear of nowadays. They even offered entire courses on it , which I took. Then my first mini career was in the power plant biz, before Volker killed it with interest rates and the Saudies killed any interest in alt. energy with their big oil field discovery. For the last 5 years I’ve been researching what’s changed, and it is frighteningly little. Solar cells are still expensive and only have a 15% conversion efficiency. They developed the new cost reduced film technology, but that knocks down efficiency to 7%. Wind power works where there is wind constantly. Generators are mature technology and are already 90 some percent efficient. Geothermal, tidal, ect. work where they are available. Looks like coal gasification and synfuel is out because it makes too much CO2. Good news is 3rd gen nuclear is way better than 1st gen plants. Hybrid cars are good, and battery technology is finally getting barely good enough for all electric cars to be practical.
  • According to news report today, Japan’s trade surplus is less than 1 billion $ in September 08, a whopping 94% decrease compared to September 07. Does it imply that going forward Japan can not buy as much treasury as before?
Glycon Garcia

Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy | Video on TED.com - 0 views

  • Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy
  • What's the key to using alternative energy, like solar and wind? Storage -- so we can have power on tap even when the sun's not out and the wind's not blowing. In this accessible, inspiring talk, Donald Sadoway takes to the blackboard to show us the future of large-scale batteries that store renewable energy. As he says: "We need to think about the problem differently. We need to think big. We need to think cheap." Donald S
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    "Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy Tweet this talk! (we'll add the headline and the URL) Post to: Share on Twitter Email This Favorite Download inShare Share on StumbleUpon Share on Reddit Share on Facebook TED Conversations Got an idea, question, or debate inspired by this talk? Start a TED Conversation, or join one of these: Green Home Energy=Hydrogen Generators-alternative sources Started by Kathleen Gilligan-Smith 1 Comment What is the real missing link in renewable energy? Started by Enrico Petrucco 8 Comments Comment on this Talk 60 total comments Sign in to add comments or Join (It's free and fast!) Sort By: smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Nice smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Good David Mackey 0 Reply 3 hours ago: Superb invention, but I would suggest one more standard mantra that they should move on from and that is the idea of power being supplied by a centralised grid. This technology seems to me to be much more beneficial on a local scale, what if every home had its own battery, then home power generation becomes economically more viable for everyone. If you could show that a system like this could pay for itself in say 5 years then every home would want one. Plus for this to be implemented on a large scale requires massive investment that could be decades away. Share the technology and lets get it in homes by next year. Great ted talk. Jon Senior 0 Reply 1 hour ago: I agree 100%. Localised energy production would also make energy consumers more conscious of their consumption and encourage efforts to reduce it. We can invent and invent all we want, but the fast solution to allowing renewable energies to take centre stage is to reduce the base energy draw. With lower baseline consumption, smaller "always on" generators are required to keep the grid operational. Town and house-l
Colin Bennett

Doe Run halts production at La Oroya copper/lead/zinc smelter - 0 views

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    Doe Run Peru, the country's fourth largest metals exporter, said on Tuesday it will halt all operations at its sprawling La Oroya smelter on Wednesday because financial and environmental setbacks have prevented it from buying concentrates. The plant, hobbled by financial woes since March, processes lead, zinc and copper. Its work permits could be canceled if it does not meet an October deadline for an environmental cleanup.
Colin Bennett

Temporary Recession or the End of Growth? - 0 views

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    Economic Growth, The Financial Crisis, and Peak Oil For several years, a swelling subculture of commentators (which includes the present author) has been forecasting a financial crash, basing this prognosis on the assessment that global oil production was about to peak. (2) Our reasoning went like this: Continual increases in population and consumption cannot continue forever on a finite planet. This is an axiomatic observation with which everyone familiar with the mathematics of compounded arithmetic growth must agree, even if they hedge their agreement with vague references to "substitutability" and "demographic transitions." (3) This axiomatic limit to growth means that the rapid expansion in both population and per-capita consumption of resources that has occurred over the past century or two must cease at some particular time. But when is this likely to occur? The unfairly maligned Limits to Growth studies, published first in 1972 with periodic updates since, have attempted to answer the question with analysis of resource availability and depletion, and multiple scenarios for future population growth and consumption rates. The most pessimistic scenario in 1972 suggested an end of world economic growth around 2015. (4)
Colin Bennett

Disentangling India's Investment Slowdown - 1 views

  • his paper documents the recent slowdown in investment in India and explores its underlying causes.
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    "He concludes that standard macroeconomic factors alone (growth, interest rates, global growth, and global financial market volatility) fail to fully explain the recent investment deceleration. He further concludes that while the importance of structural factors in explaining the recent weakening of aggregate investment is not entirely clear, at the micro level, panel data analysis suggests that improving the business environment by reducing costs of doing business, deepening the financial system, and developing infrastructure, could stimulate corporate investment." The IMF's (2013a) recent staff report on India argues that several causes of weaker growth seem to be of a supply-side nature. The following key factors are listed as possible contributors to the recent investment slowdown: Rising policy uncertainty. In particular, high profile tax policy decisions announced in the 2012/13 Budget have reduced foreign investors' interest in India, while the increasing difficulty of obtaining land use and environmental permits have raised regulatory uncertainty for infrastructure and other large-scale projects. Delayed project approvals and implementation. As a reaction to high-profile governance scandals, project approvals, clearances, and implementation have slowed sharply. Supply bottlenecks are particularly pronounced in mining and power, with attendant consequences for the broader economy, especially manufacturing.
Colin Bennett

IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific - 0 views

  • Growth in the Asia-Pacific region has slowed. External headwinds played a major role, as the recovery in advanced economies suffered setbacks. Weaker momentum in China and India also weighed on regional economies. For Asia as a whole, GDP growth fell to its lowest rate since the 2008 global financial crisis during the first half of 2012. With inflationary pressures easing, macroeconomic policy stances remained generally supportive of domestic demand and in some cases were eased further in response to the slowdown. More broadly, financial conditions remain accommodative, and capital inflows have resumed. Going forward, growth is projected to pick up very gradually, and Asia should remain the global growth leader, expanding over 2 percentage points faster than the world average next year. However, considerable downside risks remain, in particular with regard to the euro area crisis. The priorities for policymakers are to support noninflationary growth, maintain financial stability, and remain responsive to weaker-than-expected outcomes. Refocusing structural and fiscal reform efforts toward sustained and more inclusive growth remains a priority.
Colin Bennett

Where we are headed: Peak oil and the financial crisis - 0 views

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    I believe this assumption is basically incorrect. The current financial crisis is a direct result of peak oil. There may be oscillations in the economic situation, but generally, we can't expect things to get much better. In fact, there is a very distinct possibility that things may get very much worse in the next few years. In this post, I will put together some of the pieces I see. This post is based on a presentation, so includes more than the usual amount of graphics. The post repeats many things I have said before, but I wanted to bring more of the pieces together into more of an overview article. This is a link to a PDF version of the presentation. This is a link to the Powerpoint version.
Colin Bennett

Video: Chile's Codelco takes cautious copper outlook - 0 views

  • “What is happening now is not related to supply-demand in copper – it’s more related to the economic crisis in Europe,” Mr Hernández told the Financial Times in a video interview on the sidelines of LME week, the largest annual gathering of the metal and mining industry.
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    ""What is happening now is not related to supply-demand in copper - it's more related to the economic crisis in Europe," Mr Hernández told the Financial Times in a video interview on the sidelines of LME week, the largest annual gathering of the metal and mining industry."
Hans De Keulenaer

How financial institutions can overcome barriers to climate alignment | GreenBiz - 1 views

  • While financial institutions aren’t monolithic, with each facing its own particular set of challenges, five common barriers make climate alignment difficult to deliver:
Colin Bennett

Market research data breaches - 0 views

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    "The decision by the Court of Appeal is also consistent with the likely future trend of data protection legislation - the draft EU Data Protection Regulation will mean that someone can seek damages regardless of a financial loss"
Colin Bennett

Rio Tinto to manage Oyu Tolgoi project under new financial agreement with Ivanhoe Mines - 0 views

  • Rio Tinto and Ivanhoe Mines have signed a new agreement under which Rio Tinto will assume direct management of the world-class Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold project in Mongolia and provide a comprehensive financial package to Ivanhoe Mines that is expected to help secure the development of the project approximately six months ahead of schedule in late 2012.
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Newmont Mining profit surges on record-high gold prices - 0 views

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    Newmont Mining Corp. posted a sharply higher second-quarter profit Thursday, with record-high gold prices and production gains pumping revenue past most analysts' expectations. Newmont (NEM:Newmont Mining Corporation News, chart, profile, more Last: 49.02+0.25+0.51% 2:30pm 07/25/2008 Delayed quote dataAdd to portfolio Analyst Create alertInsider Discuss Financials Sponsored by: NEM 49.02, +0.25, +0.5%) shares rose $1.82, or 3.9%, to close at $48.77. The stock is up 12% over the past 12 months. Newmont reported net income for the three months ended June 30 swung to $277 million, or 61 cents a share, from a year-ago loss of $2.06 billion, or $4.57 a share. The year-ago numbers were heavily skewed by a $1.67 billion write-down tied to the company's exit from merchant banking and a $460 million charge for settling price-capped forwards contracts. Adjusted earnings from ongoing operations more than doubled to $230 million, or 51 cents a share, from $103 million, or 23 cents, a year earlier. Gold sales during the quarter totaled 1.27 million equity ounces, fetching on average $900 an ounce, as the precious metal rode a huge spike in commodity prices. Gold prices were averaging about $600 an ounce a year ago. Costs per ounce rose, however, to $440 an ounce from $417 a year ago. Copper sales accounted for $183 million during the quarter, down from $340 million a year earlier. Newmont stood by its earlier 2008 production forecast of 5.1 million to 5.4 million ounces of gold, with production cost expected to range from $425 to $450 per ounce.
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Ocean Power: Europe's Next Green Thing - 0 views

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    Ireland's OpenHydro and Germany's RWE are spending millions to try to turn the power of waves into electricity With oil prices hitting almost daily record highs and global warming climbing up the public agenda, the need for alternative energy sources has never been more urgent. But while wind and solar have dominated the recent rush to invest in renewables, market watchers reckon it could now be marine energy's turn to shine. Ocean power-using the energy from waves or tidal flows to produce electricity-is quickly coming of age as a viable green resource that could help meet ambitious global targets to reduce greenhouse gases and dependency on fossil fuels. European and North American power companies such as Canada's Emera (EMA.TO) and Germany's RWE (RWEG.DE) are spending millions to fund wind and tidal projects. This investment has led to a new generation of more efficient technologies, with dozens of prototypes expected to be ready for commercial deployment within the next five years. "There's huge interest in both wave and tidal technology," says Thomas Boeckmann, clean tech analyst at market research firm StrategyEye in London. "It's gaining a lot of attention from energy companies, which will be able to offer financial backing and technical expertise to these startups."
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Kulicke & Soffa Announces Agreements to Acquire Orthodyne Electronics and Divest its Wi... - 0 views

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    Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc (K&S) has announced that the company has entered into definitive agreements to acquire substantially all of the assets of Orthodyne Electronics Corporation, a supplier of wedge bonders, and sell the K&S wire business unit to WC Heraeus GmbH, a precious metals and technology group. Under the terms of the Orthodyne agreement, K&S will fund the acquisition of Orthodyne with approximately 7.1 million shares of K&S common stock, plus $80 million in cash. If the transaction is not consummated by October 31, 2008, the purchase price will be approximately 19.6 million shares of K&S common stock and no cash. The deal includes possible earn-out consideration up to an additional $40 million in cash if certain financial objectives are met by Orthodyne over the next three years. The closing of the transaction, which is expected within approximately 60 days, is subject to certain working capital adjustments and closing conditions, including regulatory approvals. "The acquisition of Orthodyne is in line with our stated strategy and positions K&S to capitalize on our strengths in equipment manufacturing and further cement our position as the leading supplier of interconnect solutions," commented Scott Kulicke, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of K&S. "Orthodyne is a fast growing, profitable market leader and provides us with deeper penetration into the discrete side of the semiconductor market, particularly in the attractive power management and hybrid module markets."
Colin Bennett

China seeks bigger deals and new sectors in Africa acquisition spree - 0 views

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    High-level groups of bankers from Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Standard Bank, respectively China and Africa's biggest banks, are examining potential targets in Africa's oil and gas, telecoms, base metals and power sectors, executives at the Johannesburg-based lender have told the Financial Times
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Battling BHP and Rio to post record profits - 0 views

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    Mining giants BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto should post record half-year profits as they reap the benefits of an industrial commodities boom, and are likely to use the results to bolster their arguments in a $123 billion (66 billion pound) takeover stand-off. Both are also likely to outline big expansions in key profit sectors such as copper and iron ore, where analysts predict higher prices next year on the back of strong demand for imported raw materials from China's industrial sector. Consenus figures based on forecasts by 20 analysts and provided by BHP point to a 12 percent rise in annual net profit to $15.4 billion, suggesting second-half profit will have risen 30 percent to $9.4 billion from $7.2 billion previously. Analysts polled by Reuters Estimates forecast Rio's January-June underlying profit will have risen 40 percent to $5.2 billion. BHP's financial year ends June 30, while Rio follows the calendar year.
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H.P. Buys Wireless Network Infrastructure Company - 0 views

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    Hewlett-Packard said on Monday it plans to buy Colubris Networks, furthering the consolidation of wireless networking companies. Financial terms were not disclosed. HP said the deal should close by the end of fiscal 2008, which occurs in October. Colubris, founded in 2000 and based in Waltham, Massachusetts, sells wireless access infrastructure products based around the 802.11n wireless standard, which can match or best the speeds of a plugged-in broadband connection. But the upgrade to 802.11n poses many issues for it to work efficiently. Colubris has centered many of its products around the predicted upgrade of those networks over the next few years. Colubris also sells wireless security and network management products. HP said products from Colubris will be incorporated into its ProCurve Networking portfolio, which will improve HP's ability to serve the health-care, transportation, manufacturing and education markets, among others. In June, Belden said it would buy WLAN vendor Trapeze Networks for US$133 million
Colin Bennett

China reverting to form as the world's workshop - 0 views

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    China is set to overtake the US next year as the world's largest producer of manufactured goods, four years earlier than expected, as a result of the rapidly weakening US economy. The great leap is revealed in forecasts for the Financial Times by Global Insight, a US economics consultancy. According to the estimates, next year China will account for 17 per cent of manufacturing value-added output of $11,783bn (£6,130bn) and the US will make 16 per cent.
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Smelting technology developer grows global footprint - 0 views

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    South African smelting technology developer Tenova Pyromet is increasing its presence around the globe through a growing number of large projects and the continual development and improvement of its technologies. Formerly known as Pyromet, Tenova Pyromet is now part of the multinational Tenova group of industrial companies, with which Tenova Pyromet has the advantage of being closely networked. When Italian holding company Tenova bought Pyromet in September 2006, the company changed its name and acquired the benefit of having Tenova stand surety for the company's credit line. This allowed for growth within Tenova Pyromet at a rate previously unexperienced by the company, owing to the unfreezing of large sums of financial resources.
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