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A new era for commodities Cheap resources underpinned economic growth for much of the 20th century. The 21st will be different. NOVEMBER 2011 * Richard Dobbs, Jeremy Oppenheim, and Fraser Thompson Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Sustainability & Resource Productivity Practice In This Article Exhibit: In little more than a decade, soaring commodity prices have erased a century of steady declines. About the authors Comments (2) Has the global economy entered an era of persistently high, volatile commodity prices? Our research shows that during the past eight years alone, they have undone the decline of the previous century, rising to levels not seen since the early 1900s (exhibit). In addition, volatility is now greater than at any time since the oil-shocked 1970s because commodity prices increasingly move in lockstep. Our analysis suggests that they will remain high and volatile for at least the next 20 years if current trends hold-barring a major macroeconomic shock-as global resource markets oscillate in response to surging global demand and inelastic supplies. Back to top Demand for energy, food, metals, and water should rise inexorably as three billion new middle-class consumers emerge in the next two decades.1 The global car fleet, for example, is expected almost to double, to 1.7 billion, by 2030. In India, we expect calorie intake per person to rise by 20 percent during that period, while per capita meat consumption in China could increase by 60 percent, to 80 kilograms (176 pounds) a year. Demand for urban infrastructure also will soar. China, for example, could annually add floor space totaling 2.5 times the entire residential and commercial square footage of the city of Chicago, while India could add floor space equal to another Chicago every year. Such dramatic growth in demand for commodities actually isn't unusual. Similar factors were at play throughout the 20th century as the planet's population tripled and demand for various resource

Mueller Industries Inc., the US based copper tube and fittings manufacturer, announced its end of year 2011 results, reporting net sales of US$491M in Q4 2011, down from US$527M in Q4 2010. The company attributed US$11M of the diffrence in net sales between Q4 2011 and the previous year period to a decline in the copper price. US$25M of the difference was attributed to lower unit shipment volumes, of which, the plumbing and refrigeration sectors accounted for US$14M. The company is optimistic that new housing starts will continue to rise through 2012, boosting copper tube demand.

Mueller Industries, a leading producer of copper tubes and brass products, reported net sales of $594.1M in Q2 2012. After accounting for changes of metals prices, this represents a decline of 1% y-o-y. The contraction was partially offset by a slightly higher sales volume y-o-y.

Mueller Inc, the US-based manufacturer of plumbing and commercial copper tube, announced on 5th February that its operating revenue for the fourth quarter of 2012 increased by 27.1% y-o-y, to USD16.4M, compared to the same period in 2011. CEO Greg Christopher said that the company is heavily dependent on the housing and commercial construction sector, and after five years of decline and stagnation," the industry finally appears to be gaining positive momentum."

It is expected that the commercialization of copper alloy materials for use in fish cages will gain momentum more

"If successful, Northeastern's meteorite-inspired magnets would contains no rare earth minerals and could help power a renewable power generator or an EV motor better than today's best commercial magnets. "

"Abstract Most baby-boomers have some familiarity with the classical stigma surrounding aluminum conductors in residential and commercial applications: fire hazard. Mention aluminum wiring in a building or residence and, not surprisingly, a lot of folks will react as if the structure in question should be condemned. How did aluminum get this reputation? Was it deserved? Is it still a valid assumption with today's modern aluminum alloys? Many of the historical stigmas associated with aluminum can be attributed to technical design problems of the older alloys that have now been overcome by higher quality materials and/or addressed by aluminum specific design considerations. This paper addresses the aforementioned issues and investigates the current status of aluminum conductor technology as applied to subsea power cables with a specific emphasis on the following: The Element Aluminum; Early History of Aluminum; Historical Stigmas; Technical Advances; Aluminum (Al) versus Copper (Cu); Aluminum Subsea Cable Experience"

"Although medium and heavy duty vehicles represent just a fraction of all vehicles on roadways today, they contribute significantly to road transportation sector fuel consumption and carbon emissions. "

"The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (ICBC) plans to start a fund of up to $50 billion, to be managed by Brazil's state-owned bank Caixa Economica Federal, for investing in infrastructure projects in the South American country, according to a person familiar with the situation."

"At a time when Iran's economy is tied up with sanctions, limiting its international trade capacities, it managed to sell more than a million vehicles (885,000 passenger vehicles and 128,000 light commercial vehicles) in 2012, enforce Euro IV norms in 8 cities including Tehran, Karaj, Arak, and Tabriz, convert all public cars into Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) compliant vehicles, and successfully implement a vehicle scrappage program to get very old, highly polluting vehicles off the streets of Iran. The prospect of such a country opening up to trade, giving an opportunity for global automotive companies to be a part of its growth, certainly creates buzz in the industry. Iran sold close to 860,000 passenger vehicles in 2014, 88% of which were sold by Iran Khodro Industrial Group (IKCO) and SAIPA under different marquees. With around 11.7 million vehicles on the road, the aftermarket potential is massive and the average age of vehicles is steadily increasing."

"By far, the replacement rate of copper with aluminum alloy and Aldrey alloy is up to 70% to 75%. In contrast, that of China is only 3% to 5%. In 2014, the aluminum alloy cable value is near RMB130 billion. In the global market, aluminum alloy cable is a common product for electric transmission line. With new energy gaining more popularity in China, the application of aluminum alloy will become wider and wider. In this report, ASKCI will further disclose market potential and commercial opportunities for aluminum alloy cable industry in China. Recommendations will be given at the end of the report to describe the prospect and provide suggestions for strategy making."

Undisclosed Chinese copper fabricators reported that they plan to increase copper purchases after the summer. A representative from a copper commercial tube fabricator based in Henan province reported that the company is planning to buy more than 10,000 tonnes of copper cathode in September compared to a few thousand in July and August. In addition to term supplies booked late in 2009 for deliveries in 2010, the company will need to buy in the spot market more than 10,000 tonnes of refined copper per month in Q4 2010 because of additional customer orders. The tube maker has seen its best year yet, supported by strong demand from air-conditioner manufacturers. As a result, its copper commercial tube output is expected to rise by 15% y-o-y in 2010. A source from a copper rod producer located in Guangdong province said that some overseas clients were placing additional orders for September and October. The company uses 14,000-15,000 tonnes of refined copper per month and is likely to increase spot imports to meet extra demand. Another fabricator, which uses 70,000 tonnes of refined copper per annum to produce copper rod, plate and strip, mentioned that the Anhui-based company has a full order book for the rest of the year. Thin copper strip, consumed by the electronics industry, registered the strongest growth. Backed by strong demand, the company managed to raise its product prices to cover increased copper costs. In addition, Chinese power cable output has stayed firm and mostly unaffected by Beijing's policy controls on the property sector. Power cable production rose by 23.2% y-o-y to 14.1 million kilometres in the first seven months of the year. It was also reported that copper semis production increased by 14.5% y-o-y to 6.1 million tonnes in the same period.