Group items tagged

STEERED BY SEVERAL factors, including the strong performance by several hotel brands, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index increased 1.4 percent in April to a level of 5,430, STR said in a statement. Growth is slowing, STR said, but will continue for the next quarter or more. "Hotel stocks increased in April, and the gains were driven by outperformance from the global hotel brands," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "RevPAR trends have remained solid in the face of growing macroeconomic uncertainties and continued banking turmoil, and first-quarter earnings generally have surprised to the upside with positive full-year estimate revisions occurring. The Hotel REITs declined more than 2 percent in April and underperformed the RMZ, while the global hotel brands gained just over 2.5 percent and outperformed the S&P 500's return by 100 bps." According to STR, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index fell slightly behind the S&P 500, which was up 1.5 percent in April but came in above the MSCI US REIT Index, up 0.7 percent. The hotel brand sub-index jumped 2.5 percent from March to 10,178, while the hotel REIT sub-index dropped 2.6 percent to 1,045, it added. "The industry continues to revert to normal patterns and calendar shifts with growth slowing as forecasted," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Monthly demand fell year over year for the first time since the recovery began in April 2021, but that decrease can be attributed to an extra Sunday on the calendar this year versus last. Without the extra Sunday, which is historically a low-performance night, demand would have been slightly up from last year. ADR, on the other hand, grew 3.4 percent, while RevPAR was up 1.8 percent - the lowest increase of the recovery thus far. Despite slowing growth, we expect the industry to see further gains throughout the summer and fall."

Isaac Collazo is the new vice president of analytics for STR. Previously, he was vice president of capacity at InterContinental Hotels Group. Previously, Collazo conducted performance analysis, predictive analytics, modeling and macroeconomic interpretation for Marriott International, Promus Hotel Corporation and La Quinta Inns & Suites. He also is a content committee member for STR's Hotel Data Conference. "Isaac will be an immediate voice in conversations around STR methodology as well as our ongoing product development in the CoStar platform," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Long-term, he'll contribute to the evolution of the holistic solution we will deliver to the industry." Commercial real estate research company CoStar acquired STR in 2019. Collazo called the new position a "dream come true."

THE HOTEL PROPERTY types most associated with business travel, upper upscale hotels, are well represented in the U.S. hotel construction pipeline. The volume of projects in the segment points to confidence in the future of business travel, according to STR. "Upper upscale saw the slowest recovery, but a steady climb in performance and the business travel indicators have supported developer confidence in the segment," said Isaac Collazo, STR's vice president for analytics. "The more than 23,000 upper upscale rooms in construction right now represent 3.4 percent of the segment's existing supply. That is well above the long-term growth average, up 2 percent in the U.S." According to STR, a total 154,284 rooms were under construction in March, down 0.5 percent compared to the same period last year. As many as 239,995 rooms are in the final planning state, an increase of 34.6 percent over last year. STR pipeline data showed that 232,517 rooms are under planning, a decline of 21.6 percent compared to March 2022. After three consecutive month-over-month increases, the overall number of U.S. rooms in construction fell slightly in March, which aligns with patterns in previous years. Among the chain scale segments, luxury shows the highest number of rooms as a percentage of existing supply. Luxury segment reports the highest increase in hotel construction in March, up 5.2 percent containing 7,136 rooms, followed by upscale, up 4.1 percent with 36,089 rooms and upper midscale, increased 3.7 percent containing 43,470 rooms.

U.S. HOTEL CONSTRUCTION declined for the seventh consecutive month in June, according to STR. Rooms in construction in New York City and Nashville represent a significant percentage of existing supply in those markets. Though at a slower pace, planning activity increases across the U.S. and developers are showing interest in Miami, Nashville and Phoenix, the report said. According to STR, there are 146,198 rooms under construction in the U.S. in June, down 20.1 percent when compared to same period last year. As many as 178,809 rooms are at final planning during the month, decreased 11.3 percent from last year and 281,190 rooms are at planning phase, an increase of 6.1 percent from June 2021. "The U.S. hotel pipeline continues to decelerate as we enter the second half of the year," said Carter Wilson, senior vice president of consulting, STR. "The continued increases in debt costs combined with the ongoing supply chain disruptions will likely delay projects from breaking ground this year, which will lead to a further decline in rooms in construction. On a national basis, new supply will not be a significant headwind for the future." New York leads the major markets in rooms in construction at 13,568 rooms in June, up 10.8 percent compared to last year, followed by Nashville with 3,939 rooms, up 7 percent, Phoenix with 4,388 rooms, an increase of 6.3 percent over last year, Atlanta with 5,991 rooms, up 5.5 percent and Detroit with 2,382 rooms, an increase of 5.1 percent over June 2021.

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index rose 10.5 percent to 6,760 in December, according to STR. Moreover, the stock index closed the year with a 38.4 percent gain in 2023, driven by a favorable interest rate outlook boosting investor sentiment and valuation multiples. "Hotel stocks - like the broader market - finished 2023 on a high note as the 'soft landing' narrative and lower interest rate outlook continued to boost investor sentiment and valuation multiples," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Both the hotel brands and hotel REITs were up more than 10 percent in December and outperformed their respective benchmarks. For the year, the hotel REITs' 19 percent gain more than doubled the return of real estate stocks broadly, while the hotel brands' 44 percent increase nearly doubled the performance of the S&P 500." The U.S. hotel industry closed the year on a strong note, said Amanda Hite, president of STR.

ADR is projected to rise by 0.1 percentage points in 2024, with occupancy and RevPAR remaining unchanged from the previous forecast, according to STR and Tourism Economics' initial U.S. hotel forecast for 2024 at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit. Yet, 2025 projections for key performance metrics were revised downward due to stabilized long-term average trends: occupancy down 0.1 percentage points, ADR down 0.3 points and RevPAR down 0.5 ppts. "U.S. ADR and RevPAR reached record highs in 2023 with solid travel fundamentals and a big year for group business underpinning performance," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "We expect to see continued growth as fundamentals remain more favorable for the travel economy. The indicator that is especially important is the low unemployment rate among college-educated individuals, those most likely to travel for business and leisure." The STR and Tourism Economics forecast a rise in GOPPAR growth due to increased TRevPAR levels and stable labor costs. Among chain scales, luxury and upper upscale hotels are expected to see substantial cost increases, driven by growing group demand.

THE NATIONAL NONPROFIT Shatterproof named STR President Amanda Hite a 2025 Shatterproof Hospitality Heroes honoree for her efforts to raise awareness of substance abuse. Hite will be honored at the eighth annual Hospitality Heroes Reception, held during the Americas Lodging Investment Summit on Jan. 29. The event will also raise funds to support Shatterproof's efforts to promote addiction treatment in America, Shatterproof said in a statement. "Amanda Hite is a true testament of the Hospitality Heroes award due to her personal commitment to educate the public to reduce the stigma of addiction and ensure that people who use substances or have substance use disorders have a path to recovery," said Gary Mendell, Shatterproof's CEO. "We look forward to working with her and STR to raise awareness and bring change to treatment outcomes and research."

OCCUPANCY FOR U.S. hotels is now expected to finish the year a little down from the previous forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. However, projections for ADR and RevPAR recovery remain on track in the data firms' final forecast of the year. RevPAR is still expected to fully recover this year on a nominal basis, but not until 2025 when adjusted for inflation, according to the new forecast. The updated forecast lowered occupancy by less than a percentage point for 2022, standing now at 62.7 percent compared to the previously forecasted 63 percent released in August. "As expected, group business travel has been much more aligned with pre-pandemic patterns, specifically in October when group demand hit a pandemic-era high," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Leisure travel has maintained its strength since our previous forecast update, and we expect these strong demand trends in both group and leisure to continue through the fourth quarter. Bottom-line performance has also persisted, with our most recent data showing strong profit margins due to lower employment levels and reduced services. The challenges around labor continue to be a concern, as high levels of hospitality unemployment and more spending on contract labor are pushing labor costs on a per-available-room basis above 2019 levels. We continue to take inflation and the likely recession into consideration, but the hotel industry has continued to show resilience through these tougher times, thus the steadiness of our updated forecast."

THE REVPAR OF hotels in Phoenix is forecasted to reach $419 for Super Bowl weekend of February 10-12, the second-highest level for the event, according to STR. As the city also hosts Phoenix Open this week, the Friday through Sunday night occupancy may touch 94 percent and ADR to hit $445. According to STR, a unique volume of demand would push occupancy slightly higher than Phoenix's last host year in 2015 (93.7 percent) even though supply increased by 11.7 percent this year. The ADR level would rank third among host markets behind Miami in 2020 and San Francisco in 2016. "Phoenix's jump in RevPAR during its last Super Bowl host year was staggering, and this time around will be no different with big-time growth contribution from both occupancy and ADR," said Isaac Collazo, STR's vice president of analytics. "Demand speaks for itself, especially with consumer behavior around the event free of pandemic concerns-unlike the last two Super Bowls. Phoenix's ADR situation has different influences than recent host markets given inflation and having less upper-tier supply than a Los Angeles or Miami." The overall Phoenix market comprises 544 hotels with 70,488 rooms.

STR AND TOURISM Economics updated their 2024-25 U.S. hotel forecast, raising projected occupancy by 0.2 percentage points and revising the previous forecast of a year-over-year decline. However, ADR gains were downgraded by 0.1 percentage points, while RevPAR remained unchanged at a 2 percent year-over-year increase. The occupancy growth projection for 2025 was also lifted by 0.2 percentage points, while ADR and RevPAR increases remained at 2 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, STR and TE said in a joint statement. "Midscale and economy hotels are continuing to feel the effect of fewer lower-income travelers," said Amanda Hite, STR's president. "On the other hand, high-income households continue to travel, but domestic levels are constrained due to an increase in outbound travel. The stronger dollar continues to pressure international inbound demand, especially as the cost-of-living crisis continues in Europe and airlift rebuilds across Asia Pacific."

STR AND TOURISM Economics downgraded their growth rate forecast for the U.S. hotel business with their final revision of 2024. The forecast for next year remains uncertain as the impact of the presidential election becomes clear. For 2024, projected gains in ADR and RevPAR were each downgraded, down 0.5 percentage points to 1.5 percent growth for ADR and with RevPAR's projected growth dropping 0.6 ppts to 1.4 percent, respectively. Occupancy for the year was lowered 0.1 ppts to 62.9 percent, after the previous forecast projected the metric to remain steady from 2023. For 2025, the occupancy growth projection was downgraded 0.4 ppts, and the forecast for ADR and RevPAR increases were lowered to 1.6 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively. "The outlook for 2025 remains somewhat in flux, with positive sentiment potentially offset by the higher cost of living," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Based on current economic conditions, higher-end hotels will continue to drive industry performance. The change in the presidential administration is anticipated to yield stronger economic conditions at first, which is not yet reflected in the data."

STR AND TOURISM Economics made significant downward adjustments to the 2024-25 U.S. hotel forecast, reflecting lower-than-expected performance and reduced growth projections for the remainder of the year. Projected gains in ADR and RevPAR were downgraded by 1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively. Occupancy is also expected to decline, contrasting with the previous forecast's projection of year-over-year growth in this metric. While an occupancy growth projection was maintained for 2025, ADR and RevPAR were adjusted downward by 0.8 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, STR and TE said in a joint statement. "We have seen a bifurcation in hotel performance over the first four months of the year, which we don't believe will abate soon," said Amanda Hite, STR's president. "The increased cost of living is affecting lower-to-middle income households and their ability to travel, thus lessening demand for hotels in the lower price tier. The upscale through luxury tier is seeing healthy demand, but pricing power has waned given changes in mix and travel patterns and to a lesser extent, economic conditions. Travel remains a priority for most Americans, but the volume has lessened as prices on goods and services continue to rise."

Amanda Hite, STR president, recently won the 2025 Shatterproof Hospitality Hero Award at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles for her efforts to raise awareness of substance use disorder and end addiction stigma. She is the seventh recipient and the first woman to receive the award. Meanwhile, more than 70 hospitality companies raised $2.1 million to support Shatterproof's efforts to improve substance use disorder treatment in healthcare, Shatterproof said in a statement. "I am honored to receive this award, but more importantly, to help raise critical support for Shatterproof and the transformational work they are doing," Hite said. "STR is proud to collaborate with Shatterproof as they lead the way in advocating for people with substance use disorder, their families and the communities this disease impacts."

A STABLE ECONOMIC backdrop is expected to fuel a 10.7 percent year-over-year increase in the U.S. short-term rental industry in 2024, surpassing the 6.7 percent rise seen in 2023, according to AirDNA's 2024 outlook report. Moreover, AirDNA foresees balanced growth for the industry in 2024, marked by a projected 10.9 percent increase in supply expansion guided by rising demand for more sustainable market practices. "Approaching 2024, the industry anticipates balanced growth with a projected 10.9 percent increase in supply expansion," said Jamie Lane, senior vice president of Analytics at AirDNA. "Contrary to exaggerated reports of an STR 'collapse,' heightened market competition emphasizes the need for hosts and property managers to meticulously monitor data trends. This strategic approach is crucial for surpassing competitors and sustaining revenue, taking advantage of a strong economy and the growing preference of travelers for STR lodging."

THE UPWARD MOVEMENT of ADR for U.S. hotels lifted the forecast for the market by STR and Tourism Economics. The travel research firms released the new forecast during the opening sessions of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles on Monday. The recovery timeline laid out in the new forecast remains mostly the same as the previous forecast released in November, with ADR will near full recovery this year. RevPAR is anticipated to exceed 2019 levels in 2023, but when adjusted for inflation ADR and RevPAR are not projected to reach full recovery until after 2025. Occupancy is projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. "The industry recaptured 83 percent of pre-pandemic RevPAR levels in 2021, and momentum is expected to pick up after a slow start to this year," said Carter Wilson, STR's senior vice president of consulting. "With so much of that RevPAR recovery being led by leisure-driven ADR, however, it is important to keep an eye on the real versus the nominal. Terms of recovery are not playing out evenly across the board, and many hoteliers have had to raise rates to minimize the bottom-line hit from labor and supply shortages. We are anticipating inflation to remain higher throughout the first half of the year with a gradual leveling off during the third and fourth quarters. If that happens, and we avoid major setbacks with the pandemic, this year will certainly be one to watch with demand and occupancy also shaping up to hit significant levels during the second half."

STR HAS UNVEILED the forward-looking component of its product "Forward STAR" in 104 new markets/submarkets across the U.S. and Canada. Forward STAR, which is presently live in 450 areas around the globe, allows hotel property and portfolio users to benchmark the next 365 days of occupancy on the books against the competition and market. "This launch represents our largest Forward STAR expansion to date and adds significant value to our overall benchmarking offering," said Amanda Hite, STR's president. "Adding to the historical data that drives so many operational decisions around the industry, this directly sourced forward data provides intel into where hotels can gain available business, adjust their approach to pricing, and implement actions around market events. When combining historical metrics, profitability data and these forward bookings insights, industry stakeholders are positioned to analyze performance from every angle." According to the statement, Forward STAR was launched in 17 of the country's 25 largest hotel markets, including Las Vegas, New York City, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., Boston and Phoenix. More granular submarkets were added with the addition of central business districts in markets such as Austin, Chicago, Nashville and New Orleans as well as airport submarkets in areas such as Miami, San Francisco and Bradenton, Florida.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE increased in the third week of February mainly due to Presidents' Day weekend, according to STR. The data research firm also reported improvement for the week compared to 2019. Occupancy was 59.1 percent for the week ending Feb. 19, up from 54.6 percent the week before and down 8.4 percent for the same period in 2019. ADR was $140.11 for the week, increased from $133.72 the week before and up 8.4 percent from two years ago. RevPAR was $82.87 for the week, up from $73 the week before and down just 0.8 percent from the same period two years ago. Norfolk/Virginia Beach recorded the only occupancy increase among STR's top 25 markets in the third week of February, up 5.7 percent to 55 percent, over 2019. According to the report, Miami posted the highest ADR increase during the period, increased 28 percent to $347.48, followed by Super Bowl LVI host, Los Angeles, which was up 26.4 percent to $225.07.

THE HOTEL INDUSTRY is poised for a fairly strong year in 2023 despite remaining concerns about a downturn, according to a pair of reports. Continuing demand is expected to overcome extra labor costs and economic vagaries to propel performance above pre-pandemic levels, according to the reports from the American Hotel & Lodging Association and STR. The state of the industry AHLA's 2023 State of the Hotel Industry Report projects that demand, nominal room revenue and state and local tax revenue all are well on the way to recovery. Operational challenges, such as staffing shortages and economic factors will replace COVID as hoteliers' top concerns, the report predicts. "Three years after the unprecedented hardships our industry faced due to the pandemic, hotels continue to make significant strides toward recovery," said Chip Rogers, AHLA president and CEO. "2022 saw one of the strongest summer travel seasons ever, and this year we expect hotels to reach new heights in terms of room revenue, room-night demand and state and local tax revenue. But when inflation is taken into account, our industry likely won't see full recovery for several more years. Nevertheless, hotel performance is trending in the right direction - great news for our industry and our employees, who are enjoying better pay, more career opportunities, upward mobility and flexibility than ever before."

Sonesta International Hotels Corp.'s Red Lion Inn & Suites in Elk Grove, Illinois. The 47-room mid-scale property is owned by Mahesh Chaudhari. "The opening of the Red Lion Inn & Suites Elk Grove is a testament to the brand's renewed growth nationwide," said Keith Pierce, Sonesta's executive vice president and president of franchise and Development. "This is the third Red Lion Inn & Suites location to open in 2024, underscoring how Sonesta continues to meet consumer demand for midscale properties with openings in secondary and tertiary markets." Sonesta said that guests at Red Lion Inn & Suites Illinois can earn or redeem points through the Sonesta Travel Pass loyalty program. Sonesta is the 8th largest hotel company, with approximately 1,100 properties totaling 100,000 guest rooms across 15 brands in eight countries, according to STR.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND is back and almost as strong as pre-pandemic levels, with 39.2 million people forecast to travel 50 miles or more from home during the holiday period, according to AAA Travel. Despite record high gas prices, a majority of travelers, 34.9 million, are expected to drive, but air travel also is seeing resurgence. The total forecasted number of travelers is 8.3 percent higher than 2021's 36.2 million and comes closer to 2017 levels. Last year, U.S. hotels saw occupancy hit nearly 62 percent over that Memorial Day weekend, according to STR. "Memorial Day is always a good predictor of what's to come for summer travel," said Paula Twidale, senior vice president, AAA Travel. "Based on our projections, summer travel isn't just heating up, it will be on fire. People are overdue for a vacation and they are looking to catch up on some much-needed R&R in the coming months."