Prof Spence does not ignore the risks, but sees more grounds for optimism.
He points to the ballooning number of university graduates, the emergence of grassroots civil groups, and the vast improvement in the education levels of top leaders as evidence that change will have to come.
"The whole idea of representation is being explored. Remember China had a hard time with representative government, which fell apart under the warlord era [in 1915].
"China is backtracking into the past, looking for ways of making changes. We could wish they changed much faster, but we should be glad they are changing at the speed they are," he says.
Hear Professor Jonathan Spence deliver the 2008 Reith lectures:
BBC Radio 4, Tuesdays from 3 June, 0900BST