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Note the lack of pie charts here...

anyqs How was the chance of winning calculated based on the percent voting range? I feel like theres an easy formula for this, it's just not immediately obvious (to me anyway).

This article approaches probability axiomatically. The scientists first estimated how many of the fragments of satellite would burn up on reentry based on their size. Then, for the components they expect survived the reentry, they determined the probability that they would hit any populated area and cause damage. They reasoned that since most of the planet's surface is water, there is a greater probability for the satellite debris to land in the ocean rather than on land.