Long Game

All told, two thirds of worldwide investment in unmanned planes in 2010 will be spent by countries other than the United States.

Just as we once failed to imagine terrorists using our own commercial aircraft against us, we are now underestimating the threat posed by this new wave of technology. We must prepare for a world in which foreign robotics rivals our own, and terrorists can deliver deadly explosives not just by suicide bomber but also by unmanned machine.

We've channeled billions into UAVs, initiating what has been called the largest shift in military tactics, strategy, and doctrine since the invention of gunpowder.

Throughout most of the 545 million years during which there has been visible life on Earth (the Phanerozoic Eon), Greater India was not part of Asia, and it was not a peninsula.

Throughout most of the 545 million years during which there has been visible life on Earth (the Phanerozoic Eon), Greater India was not part of Asia, and it was not a peninsula.

Throughout most of the 545 million years during which there has been visible life on Earth (the Phanerozoic Eon), Greater India was not part of Asia, and it was not a peninsula.

The ultimate outcome is significant for doing more than just testing the viability of the post-Baathist Iraqi republic. It is also of great importance to the United States, which wants to stick to its timetable for withdrawing its forces from Iraq. Meanwhile, Iran wants to see its Iraqi Shiite allies consolidate — and even enhance — their domination of Iraq. Turkey wants the outcome to contain Kurdish and Shiite power, thereby enhancing Turkey’s role in Iraq. And Saudi Arabia wants limits on Shiite power to emerge as a counter to Riyadh’s regional rival, the increasingly aggressive Iran. Naturally, not everyone in Iraq and abroad will get the outcome they want.

TWO EVENTS OCCURRED ON THURSDAY that involved Turkey. In the first, the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs forwarded a resolution to the House floor for full debate, which called for the condemning of Turkish actions in what many Armenians refer to as the 1915 genocide. The response from the Turkish Foreign Ministry was vitriolic, complete with an ambassadorial recall and threats to downgrade Turkish-American relations at a time when the Americans sorely need Turkish help in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Here at STRATFOR these developments generated a bit of a “hmmm.”

The core territory of the Ottoman Empire of the past — as well as the Turkey of today — is a crescent of land on the northwest shore of the Anatolian peninsula, including all of the lands that touch the Sea of Marmara. In many ways it is a mini-Mediterranean. It is rich in fertile land, has a maritime culture and wealth that comes from trade. It is a natural birthplace for a powerful nation, and in time it became the seat of an empire.

A crucial part of the self-consciousness of individuals and the way they define themselves socially is a perception of their location in a historical narrative, however vague. For most people in North America and Europe the narrative in question is that of 'Western Civilization' - this is true for all parts of the political spectrum and includes those who see this narrative as one of triumphant success and others who perceive it as a much darker story. However, the picture that emerges from historical research does not support any of these accounts. Rather they lead us to the conclusion that historic Western Civilization no longer exists but has perished or been transformed. This should make us think about how to understand our historical location and lead us to see past, present, and future in a new way.

At first glance, the Obama administration appears to have ruled out the "concert of powers" approach to managing multipolarity. The United States instead remains committed to a 21st-century version of the "Open Door" policy, rejecting anything that would recognize "spheres of influence" or "zones of privileged interests" in the geographic neighborhoods of the other great powers. As Vice President Joe Biden reiterated in Kyiv in July 2009, "We don't recognize, and I want to reiterate this, any spheres of influence." Nor is it likely the current administration would embrace an updated version of Nixon's "regional policemen" idea -- having a major power assume the lead for ensuring stability and security in a specific region of the world.

Multipolarity is the future, says the U.S. intelligence community, and many serious students of foreign policy tend to agree. But policymakers in Washington don't seem eager to embrace change, or to make the strategic choices that would be needed to guarantee continued U.S. global leadership.

U.S. policy seems predicated instead on expecting the rise of other powers to be interrupted, or even reversed. There is some rationale for this approach

The United States plans to withdraw all combat forces from Iraq by the end of 2011, with the drawdown slated to accelerate following the March 7 parliamentary elections. However, those elections could upset the fragile political situation that has held in Baghdad for five years, albeit with considerable U.S. oversight. Internal ethno-sectarian tensions and external forces with interests in Iraq also threaten to complicate matters. STRATFOR examines the factors that could affect the withdrawal and determine the fate of the region for years to come.

The United States is attempting to roll back its military commitment to Iraq substantially, not only to extract itself from Iraq but also to better focus its resources and efforts in Afghanistan. It has done all it can militarily and is essentially waiting out the durability of domestic political circumstances in the country during and following the elections. In other words, the U.S. military is no longer the keeper of the peace in Iraq. The elections and following transition of power will be a test of whether the Iraqis can keep the peace themselves, and the U.S. withdrawal may depend on how the Iraqis answer that test.

We are presently living in one of those times, characterized by deep and entrenched political corruption, by routine abuse of power and disregard for the rule of law in high places, and by unchecked greed, fraud and deception in the economic sphere. The results are all there to see: Severe and prolonged economic and financial crises, rising social inequalities and social injustice, increasing intolerance toward individual choices, the disregard for environmental decay, the rise of religious absolutism, a return to whimsical wars of aggression (or of pre-emptive wars), to blind terrorism and to the repugnant use of torture, and even to genocide and to blatant war crimes. These are all indicators that our civilization has lost its moral compass.

Indeed, humans' vision of themselves in the Universe has been forever altered by three fundamental scientific breakthroughs: - Galileo's proof, in 1632, that the Earth and humans were not the center of the Universe, as suppposed holy books have proclaimed. - Darwin's discovery, in 1859, (“On the Origin of Species”) that humans are not some god-like creatures unique among all species, destined to live forever, but are rather the outcome of a very long natural biological evolution. - And, the Watson-Crick-Wilkins-Franklin's discovery, in 1953, of the structure of the double helix DNA molecule (Deoxyribo Nucleic Acid) in each of the 46 chromosomes in human cells, and the devastating knowledge that humans share more than 95 percent of the same genes with chimpanzees.

As U.S. policymakers and other governments around the world search for an approach that will convince Iran to stop short of crossing the nuclear weapons threshold, Iran continues to send very mixed signals, and shows no signs of abandoning progress toward producing weapons-grade nuclear material. Meanwhile, Iran is in the midst of an internal political struggle that is often opaque from the outside, but could have major consequences for the country's position in the region and the world. This World Politics Review special report examines "The Iran Enigma."This report is a compilation of 25 articles on Iran published in World Politics Review from September 2009 to February 2010. The report looks at Iran's domestic situation, its foreign relations, and U.S. policy toward Iran.

That might seem like boilerplate language and nothing to get exorcised about, but as Massie notes, the British position on the Falklands is that there's really nothing to discuss. Britain wants and has the islands. The people who are living on the islands have no desire to be under Argentine rule. End of discussion. By encouraging the two countries to "sit down," Clinton was arguably legitimating the Argentine claim.

Hello Matt,Unfortunately, the United States has to take a position on this issue, and for two reasons, the latter being more important than the former:(1) American policy has always been to edge European influence out of the Americas, a la the Monroe Doctrine.(2) Many South American countries associate the United States with the United Kingdom; partly because of this and partly because they have their own grievances with Washington, they have started moves to form a new regional grouping which excludes America. This is not good for the United States.

The United States is keenly aware of its weaknesses in Afghanistan, and it has not forgotten the experiences of Vietnam. And there is a certain coherency to the American strategy — its ambitious goals and aggressive timetable notwithstanding. While the Taliban decline decisive engagement, the United States is trying to reshape the political and security landscape so that when it and its allies begin to draw down and the Taliban return to places like Marjah they will find a coherent government supported by the people and protected by effective indigenous forces.

At this point, conceiving of momentum and initiative will tell us little about progress toward the political accommodation necessary for lasting success in Afghanistan. Was Marjah a success? It is far too early to tell.

The Georgian government is undertaking a comprehensive review of the country’s military, taking into account lessons learned in — and circumstances created by — the Russo-Georgian war of 2008. Georgia’s strategy will focus on improving its own military abilities while moving toward membership in NATO.

Although the military review is ongoing, the Georgians have already defined the two areas of focus for their strategy: independent territorial defense, and political deterrence achieved by moving ever closer to NATO membership.

But despite these hurdles, Georgia is following Poland’s model. Even without a formal membership action plan (MAP) extended by NATO, it is doing everything it can to act as though it does have a MAP and is working independently to meet NATO standards, cooperating with willing NATO members bilaterally where possible.

China may be developing another organization to assist in reforming its state-owned enterprises (SOEs), according to media reports. China has long sought to improve the performance of its SOEs, and already has two such organizations tasked with conducting reforms. The emergence of this new group, called the Guoxin Asset Management Corp., underscores the importance Beijing places on salvaging its SOEs, legacies of the Maoist era that still hold influence in the country.

The advantage of this strategy is that it attempts to salvage productive sectors from a larger morass of inefficiency, state dependency and corruption. The disadvantage is that the consolidation process results in behemoth SOEs that are not well integrated or able to function as a whole, but that have a greater concentration of political power — mainly due to their $3.3 trillion worth of sales in 2009, and their role as major employers — and are able to preserve aspects of the state sector from private competition, demand continued public funds for support, and serve as vehicles for government officials’ pet projects, in turn squeezing private sector development.

One drinking-water bottle could provide enough energy for an entire household in the developing world if Dan Nocera has his way. A chemist from M.I.T. and founder of the company Sun Catalytix, Nocera has developed a cobalt-based catalyst that allows him to store energy the same way plants do: by splitting water.

His example? The automobile. After all, in 1898, concerned civic leaders from around the world gathered because estimates predicted that London would be buried under three meters  of manure at then current rates of growth; New York City would have piles reaching to the third story of buildings. Within two decades, that problem was entirely gone. "They didn't see the automobile industry coming," Nocera said. "Shift happens."

How to explain this surprising if well-concealed comity? Some is due to the inevitable transformation that every party goes through when it moves from the opposition to the White House. Being in power tends to breed responsibility, just as being out of power breeds irresponsibility. Many Republicans during the Clinton years turned toward quasi-isolationism and opposed Clinton's policies -- even his hawkish policies -- simply because they hated Clinton. Many Democrats  showed great solidarity with Bush after September 11, 2001 -- a bipartisan moment that Bush helped squander. But they soon came to oppose almost everything Bush did, even policies traditionally associated with the Democratic Party, such as democracy promotion and nation-building, and even when, as in the case of the surge in Iraq, the most likely beneficiary of success would be a Democratic president.

The irony is that in some ways Obama has been fighting the war on terror at least as vigorously as his predecessor. He escalated the war in Afghanistan. He greatly increased drone attacks on suspected terrorists in Pakistan. Indeed, the Obama administration carried out more drone strikes in its first year than the Bush administration carried out in the previous five years combined, producing a record number of enemy casualties. Although the Obama administration may be more generous in providing legal defense to captured terrorists than the Bush administration, it also makes a greater effort to assassinate them, thus obviating the need for trials. 

The most absurd of the "un-Bush" policies of this administration has been its deliberate turn away from helping democrats against autocracies abroad.