the euro, has suffered from two core problems
New item has been created. View it here
24More
Europe: The New Plan - 0 views
- ...20 more annotations...
-
Taxation and appropriation — who pays how much to whom — are essentially political acts. One cannot have a centralized fiscal authority without first having a centralized political/military authority capable of imposing and enforcing its will.
-
the checkbook is not the ultimate power in the galaxy. The ultimate power comes from the law backed by a gun.
-
Americans fought the bloodiest war in their history from 1861 to 1865 over the issue of central power versus local power.
-
Northern Europe is composed of advanced technocratic economies, made possible by the capital-generating capacity of the well-watered North European Plain and its many navigable rivers
-
a people that identifies with its brethren throughout the river valleys and in other areas linked by what is typically omnipresent infrastructure. This crafts a firm identity at the national level rather than local level and assists with mass-mobilization strategies.
-
Southern Europe, in comparison, suffers from an arid, rugged topography and lack of navigable rivers.
-
identity is more localized; southern Europeans tend to be more concerned with family and town than nation, since they do not benefit from easy transport options or the regular contact that northern Europeans take for granted.
-
While states of this grouping often plan together for EU summits, in reality the only thing they have in common is a half-century of lost ground to recover, and they need as much capital as can be made available.
-
With Europe having such varied geographies, economies and political systems, any political and fiscal union would be fraught with complications and policy mis-prescriptions from the start. In short, this is a defect of the euro that is not going to be corrected, and to be blunt, it isn’t one that the Europeans are trying to fix right now.
-
The ECB’s primary (and only partially stated) mission is to foster long-term stable growth in the eurozone’s largest economy — Germany — working from the theory that what is good for the continent’s economic engine is good for Europe.
-
Smaller, poorer economies are more volatile, since even tiny changes in the international environment can send them through either the floor or the roof.
-
The question is not “whither the euro” but how to provide a safety net for the euro’s less desirable, debt-related aftereffects.
-
When the not-so-desperate eurozone states step in with a few billion euros — 223 billion euros so far, to be exact — they want not only their money back but also some assurance that such overindulgences will not happen again.
-
The third complication is that the bailout mechanism is actually only half the plan. The other half is to allow states to at least partially default on their debt
-
tates that just squeaked by in 2010 must run a more difficult gauntlet in 2011 — particularly if they depend heavily on foreign investors for funding their budget deficits.
-
"Europe is on the cusp of change. An EU heads-of-state summit Dec. 16 launched a process aimed to save the common European currency. If successful, this process would be the most significant step toward creating a singular European power since the creation of the European Union itself in 1992 - that is, if it doesn't destroy the euro first."
9More
shared by anonymous on 21 Dec 10
-
Cached
Rand and Empirical Responsibility 6 - 0 views
aynrandcontrahumannature.blogspot.com/...mpirical-responsibility-6.html
objectivism criticalthinking


-
Rand's view is that the conscious mind serves as a kind of gate keeper for what gets into the unconscious mind.
-
the unconscious mind figures out which decks are bad before this awareness reaches the conscious mind. These findings are consistent with a large body of experimental research (see Timothy Wilson's Strangers to Ourselves).
- ...5 more annotations...
-
Did Rand provide any evidence for this view? Nope. Nor did she explain why she believed it. Then what reason can any rational person have for believing it? None whatever.
-
The relevant evidence (see the above mentioned Strangers to Ourselves) strongly suggests that the conscious mind neither is nor could be in control all the time.
-
Since most of one's "inner states" lie below the threshhold of consciousness, they cannot be introspected.
-
"The conscious mind "programs" the subconscious mind. Rand's view is that the conscious mind serves as a kind of gate keeper for what gets into the unconscious mind. Again, we are faced with the question: How did she know this to be true? Where is her evidence? Is this merely a speculative conjecture? If so, why doesn't Rand make this clear?" By Greg Nyquist at Ayn Rand Contra Human Nature on December 21, 2010.
5More
shared by anonymous on 29 Dec 10
-
Cached
Rand and Empirical Responsibility 7 - 0 views
aynrandcontrahumannature.blogspot.com/...mpirical-responsibility-7.html
objectivism criticalthinking


-
Since consciousness is only "the tip of the iceberg," it would appear unlikely that Rand could have introspected her way to the discovery that clashes between "reason" and "emotion" are caused by "stale" thinking which the mind was forbidden to revise.
-
Rand herself must have had an experience involving stale thinking leading to reason-emotion clashes. At some point, Rand must have introspected herself involved in a bout of "stale thinking" (whatever that might be); she must have further introspected her mind engaged in the process of forbidding any revision of this "stale" cogitation; and, finally, she must have introspected the resulting clash between "reason" and emotion.
-
Since, on the assumptions of our thought experiment, Rand's knowledge is based solely on her own private experiences as perceived via introspection, we cannot be sure that her claim applies to other people.
- ...1 more annotation...
-
Since "reason" must always operate with the assistance of emotion (i.e., Damasio's Somatic Marker Hypothesis), it is pointless to gripe about a clash between "reason" and emotion. A clash between "reason" and emotion is really a clash between two emotions, one of which is in league with "reason."
-
""An emotion that clashes with your reason is only the carcass of that stale thinking which you forbade your mind to revise." How on earth did Rand know this? Without providing even a jot of evidence, it becomes impossible for a rational person to judge this assertion." By Greg Nyquist at Ayn Rand Contra Human Nature on December 28, 2010.
1More
Separating Terror from Terrorism - 0 views
-
"On Dec. 15, the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) sent a joint bulletin to state and local law enforcement agencies expressing their concern that terrorists may attack a large public gathering in a major U.S. metropolitan area during the 2010 holiday season. That concern was echoed by contacts at the FBI and elsewhere who told STRATFOR they were almost certain there was going to be a terrorist attack launched against the United States over Christmas."
5More
Russian Influence and the Changing Baltic Winds - 0 views
-
While it seems that the initial statement favoring Russia is relatively mild and reasonable, it is a subtle yet indicative representation of the changing winds in the Baltics.
-
In the past few months Russia has adopted a new, more multi-dimensional approach toward the Baltic states.
-
It isn’t that the Latvian government is becoming pro-Russian, but rather that it has realized that it is easier to cooperate with Russia than fight against it.
- ...1 more annotation...
-
Russia is just attempting to make sure that Western influence is easily containable and controllable in the three states that are on Russia’s most vulnerable geographic border.
-
"When asked whether he preferred building a rail project westward to Europe or eastward to Russia, Latvian Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis on Wednesday said the latter option - a railroad to Moscow - would be more justifiable to Latvia. Dombrovskis was careful to add that the decision would be made based on which option was more economically viable, but he said neither project - the high-speed rail to Europe known as "Rail Baltica" or a high-speed rail from Riga to Russia - would hold priority until a thorough economic analysis is conducted. While it seems that the initial statement favoring Russia is relatively mild and reasonable, it is a subtle yet indicative representation of the changing winds in the Baltics."
1More
What a War Between China and the United States Would Look Like - 0 views
2More
Russia and its Foreign Policy Dance - 0 views
-
Russia and Israel have had ongoing tense and complex relations. After a post-World War II alliance in the late 1940s, Soviet-era Moscow was a patron of Israel’s enemies — Egypt and Syria. At the time, this was not really about Russia siding against Israel as it was about pressuring the United States’ interests in the Middle East.
-
The Kremlin announced Wednesday that Russian President Dmitri Medvedev is going to visit the Palestinian territories in a few weeks, just as Medvedev's trip to Israel has been canceled. Medvedev had planned to go to Israel on Jan. 17-19, but his trip was postponed due to a strike at the Israeli Foreign Ministry. While this may just seem like a logistical and technical issue, there is a shifting Russian foreign policy strategy, giving Moscow freer capability to act against the Israelis and increase support for the Palestinians. At StratFor on January 6, 2011.
12More
shared by anonymous on 10 Jan 11
-
Cached
Rand and Empirical Responsibility 9 - 0 views
aynrandcontrahumannature.blogspot.com/...ns-only-means-of-grasping.html
objectivism criticalthinking


-
Rand claims that "The method which reason employs in this process is logic—and logic is the art of non-contradictory identification." This description entails the additional difficulties involved in trying to figure out what on earth Rand could possibly mean by suggesting that logic is the "art of non-contradictory identification."
- ...7 more annotations...
-
So having unravelled these tangles as best we can, we may safely assume that (1) reason involves creating a logically consistent body of knowledge, and (2) reason involves concept-formation.
-
Reason, Rand claims, is man's only means of both grasping reality and acquiring knowledge. What evidence did she present for this view? Unfortunately, none at all.
-
Let me just note that, in the light of evidence brought to light by exponents of Wittgenstien's Family Resemblance theory of concepts and discoveries about the large role played in concept-formation by the cognitive unconscious, Rand's theory appears rather implausible.
-
If "reason" involves forming concepts in accordance to Rand's theory, then we can safely assume that "reason" is entirely mythical faculty that has nothing to do with real cognition.
-
Logic enables us to judge the validity of our own deductive reasoning, but much of the time we need to reason non-deductively — either inductively, or in terms of likelihoods, or of causes and effects, none of which fits within the rules of formal logic.
-
The only way to make this true is to define mysticism and skepticism analytically -- i.e., as the only alternatives to "reason."
-
this natural reasoning is precisely the method which has allowed the species to reproduce and survive for hundreds of thousands of years
-
""Reason is man's only means of grasping reality and of acquiring knowledge." The first difficulty we must confront is trying to entangle what is meant by "reason." As far as I can make out, "reason," for Rand, means creating a logically consistent body of knowledge based on the evidence of the senses. Rand is fond of describing "reason" in terms of "integration," which seems to assume is a kind of "whole" made up of indivdual parts that have been logically conjoined together. Rand claims that "The method which reason employs in this process is logic-and logic is the art of non-contradictory identification." This description entails the additional difficulties involved in trying to figure out what on earth Rand could possibly mean by suggesting that logic is the "art of non-contradictory identification." Logic involves the study of arguments. But here Rand is suggesting that logic has a much larger range, that it involves "identification."" By Greg Nyquist at Ayn Rand Contra Human Nature on January 10, 2011
4More
Eurozone Running Out of Peripheral Countries to Bail Out - 0 views
-
Despite denials to the contrary from Schaeuble and from the Portuguese government, nobody is buying the rhetoric that Lisbon will survive long without a bailout. Investors are certainly not buying it and neither are Portugal’s fellow eurozone members.
-
Portugal is on its way to a bailout and Europeans — bankers, investors and politicians — seem relatively resigned to it.
-
The more fundamental problem for Europe is that it is running out of highly indebted, small, peripheral countries on the edge of the eurozone map to rescue. Yes, enacting the bailouts is now an orderly, German-led process, but what happens when the bailouts are no longer of peripheral economies that are one-fifteenth the size of Germany?
-
"German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Monday that Germany was not pressuring the Portuguese government to seek financial assistance from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The statement followed a Der Spiegel report that Germany and France were trying to force the Portuguese leadership to request aid. The denial from Schaeuble came as financial media reported that bond traders claimed the European Central Bank was intervening Monday to buy Portuguese debt in secondary markets. The Portuguese yield rose to more than 7 percent before settling at 6.93 percent. Greece asked for its bailout in March 2010 as yields went above 8 percent."
29More
The Turkish Role in Negotiations with Iran - 0 views
-
The Iranians have achieved a similar position. By far the weakest of the negotiators, they have created a dynamic whereby they are not only sitting across the table from the six most powerful countries in the world but are also, like the North Koreans, frequently being coaxed there.
-
If the United States withdraws from the region, Iran becomes the most powerful conventional power in the Persian Gulf, regardless of whether it has nuclear weapons.
-
Given that the United States is officially bound to leave Iraq by the end of this year, Iran is becoming substantially more powerful.
- ...25 more annotations...
-
The drawdown of American forces in Iraq is the first step. As U.S. power declines in Iraq, Iranian power increases.
-
If it continues its withdrawal of forces from Iraq, Iraq will be on its way to becoming an Iranian satellite.
-
If Iraq becomes an Iranian ally or satellite, the Iraqi-Saudi and Iraqi-Kuwaiti frontier becomes, effectively, the frontier with Iran.
-
with the most strategically located country in the Middle East — Iraq — Iran now has the ability to become the dominant power in the Middle East and simultaneously reshape the politics of the Arabian Peninsula.
-
Assuming that the United States is not prepared to increase forces in Iraq dramatically, the Iranians now face a historic opportunity.
-
As STRATFOR has said and WikiLeaks has confirmed, it is the Saudis who are currently pressing the United States to do something about Iran, not because of nuclear weapons but because of the conventional shift in the balance of power.
-
The destruction of Iranian naval power is critical, since Iran’s most powerful countermove in a war would be to block the Strait of Hormuz with mines, anti-ship missiles and swarming suicide craft, cutting off the substantial flow of oil that comes out of the strait. Such a cutoff would shatter the global economic recovery. This is Iran’s true “nuclear” option.
-
The first is to retain the powerful negotiating hand it has by playing the nuclear card. The second is to avoid an air campaign by the United States against Iran’s conventional capabilities.
-
The Iranians would not have to invade militarily to be able to reshape the region. It would be sufficient for there to be the potential for Iran to invade. It would shift the regime survival question away from Iran to Saudi Arabia.
-
accepting the shift in the regional balance in favor of Iran, reversing the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq or attempting to destroy Iran’s conventional forces while preventing the disruption of oil from the Persian Gulf.
-
The Europeans are hardly of one mind on any subject save one: They do not want to see a disruption of oil from the Persian Gulf.
-
Therefore, at the table next week will be the Americans, painfully aware that its campaigns look promising at the beginning but frequently fail; the Europeans and Chinese, wanting a low-risk solution to a long-term problem; and the Russians, wanting to appear helpful while hoping the United States steps in it again and ready to live with soaring energy prices. And there are the Iranians, wanting to avoid a conventional war but not wanting to forego the opportunity that it has looked for since before the Islamic Republic — domination of the Persian Gulf.
-
The Turks opposed the U.S. invasion of Iraq because they expected it to fail to establish a viable government in Baghdad and thereby to destroy the balance of power between Iraq and Iran.
-
the United States was unprepared for the unilateral role Turkey and Brazil played at the time they played it.
-
It is all very good to want to negotiate as a neutral party, but the most important party isn’t at the table: Saudi Arabia. Turkey wants to play a dominant role in the Muslim world without risking too much in terms of military force. The problem for Turkey, therefore, is not so much bringing the United States and Iran closer but bringing the Saudis and Iranians closer, and that is a tremendous challenge not only because of religious issues but also because Iran wants to be what Saudi Arabia opposes most: the dominant power in the region.
-
The nuclear issue is easy simply because it is not time-sensitive right now. The future of Iraq is time-sensitive and uncertain.
-
The third is to persuade Saudi Arabia that the degree of control ceded to Iranians will not threaten Saudi interests
-
Having regional power is not a concept. It is a complex and unpleasant process of balancing contradictory interests in order to prevent greater threats to a country’s interests emerging in the long run.
-
As the Americans have learned, no one will thank them for it, and no one will think better of them for doing it. The only reason for a deeper involvement as mediator in the P-5+1 talks is that stabilizing the region and maintaining the Persian-Arab balance of power is in Turkey’s national interest. But it will be a wrenching shift to Turkey’s internal political culture. It is also an inevitable shift. If not now, then later.
-
"The P-5+1 talks with Iran will resume Jan. 21-22. For those not tuned into the obscure jargon of the diplomatic world, these are the talks between the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council (the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia), plus Germany - hence, P-5+1. These six countries will be negotiating with one country, Iran. The meetings will take place in Istanbul under the aegis of yet another country, Turkey. Turkey has said it would only host this meeting, not mediate it. It will be difficult for Turkey to stay in this role."
7More
A Chinese Flight Test and U.S. Demands - 0 views
-
Pictures have flowed out of cyberspace of what appears to be the first test flight of a fifth-generation combat fighter prototype, the so-called Chengdu J-20, which has some outward appearances of stealth shaping and characteristics.
-
This anecdote has been widely reported as another example of the rising prominence of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), whose leaders are presumed to have planned and held the flight test on the occasion of Gates’ visit without Hu’s prior knowledge — a brazen act of insubordination.
-
There is support for the theory that a crack is opening between China’s military and civilian leaders.
- ...3 more annotations...
-
it is extremely difficult to believe that Hu, not only China’s president but also its chief military official, was shrouded in a cloud of unknowing.
-
China probably unveiled the advanced fighter during Gates’ visit to emphasize that it is a force to be reckoned with.
-
China’s undeniable advances in the military sphere, as in other spheres, have prompted the United States to begin holding it to higher standards, which may not be what Beijing wants.
-
"U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates met with Chinese President Hu Jintao on the second day of his trip to China. Gates' trip has served as a public display of renewed military communication between the two countries, as well as a forerunner to Hu's highly anticipated trip to Washington from Jan. 18-21."
3More
The United States and Iran on the Lebanese Chessboard - 0 views
-
because Lebanon lacks sovereignty in any true sense of the word, it is an arena for geopolitical struggles involving regional and international players. Thus, the formation and collapse of governments in Beirut carry immense significance.
-
Hezbollah forcing the collapse of the Lebanese government allows Iran to telegraph to the United States that it is in a very comfortable position in Mesopotamia and the Levant, and can negotiate with Washington from a position of strength.
-
"Lebanon's Shiite Islamist movement Hezbollah on Wednesday engineered the collapse of the country's coalition government. Eleven ministers representing the Hezbollah-led March 8 Coalition resigned their Cabinet positions, forcing their main opponent, Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri (whose Future Movement leads the rival March 14 Coalition), out of office. The move was designed to thwart al-Hariri from working with the U.S.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) to indict Hezbollah members for their alleged involvement in the 2005 assassination of his father, former Lebanese Premier Rafik al-Hariri."
1More
Census: Long-distance moves in U.S. hit record low | HamptonRoads.com | PilotOnline.com - 0 views
-
"Americans are shunning long-distance moves at record levels as many young adults, struggling without jobs, opt to stay put rather than relocate to other parts of the U.S. The new information from the Census Bureau highlights the extreme pressure that the sluggish economy is putting on people in this country, especially those in some of the hardest hit groups."
1More
Boomers@65 -- Not Your Father's Retirement -- AARP - 0 views
-
"When my father was 65, he was still waiting for the musical colossi of his youth to make a comeback. But by then, most of them - Duke Ellington, Harry James, the Dorsey Brothers, Glenn Miller - were long gone. By contrast, people turning 65 today can go see the musical heroes that brightened their youth any day of the week, because they never really went away. Paul McCartney recently played the Apollo in Harlem. Keith Richards just released his autobiography. Aretha Franklin, Mick Jagger, Eric Clapton, Smokey Robinson and Paul Simon are all very much alive and kicking. Well, alive."
1More
Poll Spotlights Perceptions of Boomers on Aging, Retirement, Work - AARP Bulletin - 0 views
-
"They came of age starting in the turbulent 1960s amid the Vietnam War, the fight for civil rights and women's rights. Today, America's largest generation, the boomers (those born 1946-1964), still question authority and have a strong social conscience, according to an AARP Bulletin poll on perceptions of boomers."
1More
Movies such as 'Get Low,' 'Barney's Version,' 'Red,' 'The Expendables' are a new wrinkl... - 0 views
-
"Hollywood is, of course, still persistently, obsessively interested in young audiences. Yet in certain quarters, at least, it's a little less about the prepubescents these days. Two of the most notable action movies of 2010 were "The Expendables" and "Red" - films that not only prominently feature actors over 55 but that also turn characters' length of tooth into central plotlines."
5More
China's Military Comes Into Its Own - 0 views
-
The Chinese fear a potential U.S. blockade of their coast. While this may not seem a likely scenario, the Chinese look at their strategic vulnerability, at their rising power and at the U.S. history of thwarting regional powers, and they see themselves as clearly at risk.
-
For Beijing, it is critical to keep the U.S. Navy as far from Chinese waters as possible and delay its approach by maximizing the threat environment in the event of a conflict.
-
The Chinese role for the J-20 is based on a different set of realities than those the Soviets and Americans faced during the Cold War, meaning the J-20 prototype should not be judged solely by the American standards for fifth-generation aircraft. More than having the most advanced aircraft in the sky, the Chinese value the ability to maintain high sortie rates from many bases along the country’s coast to overwhelm with numbers the superior U.S. combat aircraft, which would be expected to be operated from aircraft carriers or from more distant land bases.
- ...1 more annotation...
-
Chinese defense and security officials also closely monitor such boards, but the officials chose not to shut them down — clearly indicating Beijing’s intent to draw attention to the test.
-
"Chinese President Hu Jintao is visiting the United States, perhaps his last state visit as president before China begins its generational leadership transition in 2012. Hu's visit is being shaped by the ongoing China-U.S. economic dialogue, by concerns surrounding stability on the Korean Peninsula and by rising attention to Chinese defense activity in recent months. For example, China carried out the first reported test flight of its fifth-generation combat fighter prototype, dubbed the J-20, during U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates' visit to China the previous week."
3More
Arab Leaders Fear Coup Contagion - 0 views
-
In less than a month, the act of self-immolation, which is the technical term for lighting oneself on fire, has gone from something virtually unheard of in the Arab world to a regularly occurring event. It was the spark for the Tunisian protests last December, and since a copycat in the same country on Jan. 5, there have been at least seven additional cases of self-immolation recorded in Algeria, Mauritania and Egypt.
-
Arab countries that don’t have the oil wealth of the Persian Gulf states are constrained economically from being able to spend much on social development, but they will seek ways to do so nonetheless, in efforts to garner good faith among those they see as most likely to revolt.
-
"Individuals in three North African countries committed self-immolation on Monday, as Arab governments across the wider region sought to stem the potential for contagion generated by the recent popular uprising in Tunisia, which itself began with an act of self-immolation on Dec. 17. From Syria to Kuwait to Egypt and beyond, ruling regimes are looking inward and trying to pre-empt their discontented masses from coalescing into a threat to their rule."
View AllMost Active Members
View AllTop 10 Tags
- 318geopolitics
- 147criticalthinking
- 115politics
- 96layscience
- 72technology
- 68generations
- 63longnow
- 52objectivism
- 34media
- 34Russia
- 30gaming
- 29economics
- 28whimsy
- 25education
- 22partisan
- 21china
- 17science
- 17u.s.
- 17stratfor
- 16society