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It is this gloomy backdrop which exercises the minds of the third and final group of experts, the bears. For them, the risk is both of a double-dip recession and a long, painful work out from the excesses of the past. Looking at the four main components of demand they would say that consumption is going to be weak so investment will disappoint. Government spending is going to be slashed, leaving a massive burden on exports at a time of slower growth and currency wars. The bears are currently the smallest group. Their numbers are likely to be swelled as winter progresses.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF's managing director, warned that "we face the risk of a lost generation", adding: "When you lose your job, your health is likely to be worse. When you lose your job, the education of your children is likely to be worse. When you lose your job, social stability is likely to be worse – which threatens democracy and even peace. So we shouldn't fool ourselves. We are not out of the woods yet. And for the man in the street, a recovery without jobs doesn't mean much."

Tim Geithner, Obama's treasury secretary, said: "The United States believes that global rebalancing is not progressing as well as needed to avoid threats to the global economic recovery.

An emergency bailout of Ireland, which is looking increasingly likely today, could cost Britain billions of pounds