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Duncan Innes

Why Is the IMF Controversial | Globalization101 - 1 views

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    Is the IMF a force for good?
Duncan Innes

World job crisis is a threat to democracy, says IMF head | Business | The Observer - 0 views

  • Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF's managing director, warned that "we face the risk of a lost generation", adding: "When you lose your job, your health is likely to be worse. When you lose your job, the education of your children is likely to be worse. When you lose your job, social stability is likely to be worse – which threatens democracy and even peace. So we shouldn't fool ourselves. We are not out of the woods yet. And for the man in the street, a recovery without jobs doesn't mean much."
    • Duncan Innes
       
      USA is losing patience with China
  • Tim Geithner, Obama's treasury secretary, said: "The United States believes that global rebalancing is not progressing as well as needed to avoid threats to the global economic recovery.
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  • "Our initial achievements are at risk of being undermined by the limited extent of progress toward more domestic demand-led growth in countries running external surpluses and by the extent of foreign exchange intervention as countries with undervalued currencies lean against appreciation."
  • "In the G20 framework there are too many people and too many interests to be able to find a currency arrangement," Juncker said. "The ideal forum would be G7 plus China."
Duncan Innes

Defaulting rescued Argentina. It could work for Athens too | Business | The Observer - 0 views

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    Article neatly showing how Argentine defaulted identifying the pain but also the long term gain of a managed default.
Duncan Innes

BBC News - IMF's Olivier Blanchard: Time for UK to consider Plan B - 0 views

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    The end of austerity
Duncan Innes

Is Inequality the Convenient Villain or a Misguided Obsession? | Future Development - 0 views

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    Is Inequality the Convenient Villain or a Misguided Obsession?
Duncan Innes

Inflation fears send shares sliding - Business News, Business - The Independent - 0 views

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    Reasons behind October 2010 Inflation rise.
Duncan Innes

Ireland is having a Lehmans moment | Business | The Guardian - 0 views

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    Visdeo and Column neatly summing up the Irish crisis and drawing parallels with the Lehman Brothers and the banking crisis
josh mower

BBC News - Could Greece be Europe's Lehman Brothers? - 0 views

  • Could Greece be Europe's Lehman Brothers?
  • Three years ago today, US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson made a momentous decision - to let the investment bank Lehman Brothers fail. The US government had helped to rescue a string of financial institutions, but markets kept pushing more to the wall. Mr Paulson was running out of time and options. There was no political support in Washington to keep throwing money at the problem. Wall Street would just have to learn to bear the consequences of its own folly. Today, many say that it was the wrong decision. The resulting financial meltdown (the stock market plummeted 43%) forced the authorities to do exactly what they had been trying to avoid - commit trillions of dollars to rescue the financial system.
  • Now fast-forward to the present. The "troika" of lenders to Greece - the European Union, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and European Central Bank (ECB) - may soon face a similar moment of reckoning.
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  • The government in Athens has consistently failed to cut its overspending as much as promised, and keeps coming back for more money. The Greeks complain that spending cuts demanded by the troika are killing their economy, which in turn pushes their tax revenues down, stoking the need to borrow yet more.
  • Would they really pull the plug on Greece to make an example of it? Or, with daily protests on the streets of Athens, could Greece itself walk away from the table? And if so, would it trigger another global meltdown?
  • Certainly it would be irrational for Greece to stop playing ball. Cut off from the troika's bailouts, the country cannot borrow. But even if it stopped paying its debts, Greece would still face enormous pain. Last year the government borrowed the equivalent of 10.5% of annual economic output, just to fund general government spending.
  • That overspend would have to stop immediately - far worse austerity than the troika demands. The Greek banks would also collapse, bereft of outside support. Having crossed the Rubicon of unilateral default, many economists believe the Greeks would leave the euro altogether. One reason is the need to devalue its currency to restore competitiveness. "Greece needs to move its exchange rate by at least 30% to have any chance of getting jobs back," says Mr Booth. Another is that the Greek central bank could then fund the government's continued borrowing with freshly-printed drachmas. But inflation would soar, and imports especially would become very expensive
  • That threatened a chain reaction of bankruptcies, which in turn caused a collapse of confidence throughout the financial system.
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    If Greece defaults would it lead to another recession?
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