It is this gloomy backdrop which exercises the minds of the third and final group of experts, the bears. For them, the risk is both of a double-dip recession and a long, painful work out from the excesses of the past. Looking at the four main components of demand they would say that consumption is going to be weak so investment will disappoint. Government spending is going to be slashed, leaving a massive burden on exports at a time of slower growth and currency wars. The bears are currently the smallest group. Their numbers are likely to be swelled as winter progresses.
Duncan Innes on 04 Nov 10Three big questions arise from the decision by the Federal Reserve tonight to pump an extra $600bn (£372bn) into the US economy through the policy known as quantitative easing. Why is America's central bank taking this action? What are the likely consequences? How will the rest of the world respond?