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An emergency bailout of Ireland, which is looking increasingly likely today, could cost Britain billions of pounds

It is this gloomy backdrop which exercises the minds of the third and final group of experts, the bears. For them, the risk is both of a double-dip recession and a long, painful work out from the excesses of the past. Looking at the four main components of demand they would say that consumption is going to be weak so investment will disappoint. Government spending is going to be slashed, leaving a massive burden on exports at a time of slower growth and currency wars. The bears are currently the smallest group. Their numbers are likely to be swelled as winter progresses.