Group items tagged

It is this gloomy backdrop which exercises the minds of the third and final group of experts, the bears. For them, the risk is both of a double-dip recession and a long, painful work out from the excesses of the past. Looking at the four main components of demand they would say that consumption is going to be weak so investment will disappoint. Government spending is going to be slashed, leaving a massive burden on exports at a time of slower growth and currency wars. The bears are currently the smallest group. Their numbers are likely to be swelled as winter progresses.

In the first half of 2010, the story was that the big emerging economies – India, China and Brazil – were acting as the locomotive for global growth. But during the second half of 2010, there were signs of the United States and Germany joining the party