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dani tav

Government Collaboration Builds Growth - 0 views

  • effective local government would play in improving northeast Ohio's economic future
  • conomic competitiveness component of the Fund for Our Economic Future
  • government efficiency and collaboration are relevant and timely topics in our region
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  • We are beginning to see the positive results collaboration can bring, including significant savings to protect vital services and ensure our communities invest in innovation and education to create jobs and keep the region competitive in the global economy."
  • he rate of local government spending in Northeast Ohio is 70 times the region's population growth, 2.8 times its inflation rate and 2.4 times its economic output
  • government entities spend $20 billion to operate
  • ortheast Ohio residents have made it clear that more efficient local government is a regional priorit
  • collaboration of 100 foundations, organizations and philanthropists from across Northeast Ohio
alex yesikov

Tag, You're It! Too Big to Fail Risk Transferred, Not Eliminated - Daniel Indiviglio - ... - 2 views

  • Whenever we think of giant firms that a government feels it must bailout, big banks generally come to mind. Sure, an insurance company sneaked in there too, but AIG might have been more of an exception, since it so grossly underestimated the risks it was taking on its financial products and lived in a grey regulatory area. Although last summer's giant financial regulation bill sought to eliminate the systemic risk that led to a crisis a few years ago, it may have merely transferred some of it, creating a new breed of too big to fail firms
  • Those who understand the crisis know that derivatives were involved, particularly through AIG. It needed to be bailed out, because it did not have enough capital on hand to back up the credit default swaps agreements it had written. A large number of those were tied to the housing market, which caused the crisis.
  • In order to avoid this problem derivatives pose in the future, new financial regulation demands that all derivatives are cleared, when possible. For those who aren't familiar with clearing, the general idea is that each derivative is matched with an equal, opposite derivative through a central bookkeeper -- a clearing house -- to net out the risk they pose (more explanation with a lengthy analogy here).
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  • For example, imagine if AIG had cleared all of its credit default swaps. In theory, that means a clearing house would have ensured that the insurer had ample cash (or other collateral) on hand to satisfy their payouts.
alex yesikov

The 10 Banks Which Pose the Greatest Systemic Risk - Seeking Alpha - 1 views

  • cently described the process that NYU uses to generate their results: The first step that Engle and colleagues propose is to calculate what they call the Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) associated with a given financial institution. This is an estimate, based on recent dynamic variances and correlations of observed stock prices, of how much the stock valuation of a given institution would be expected to fall today if the overall market were to decline by more than 2%. This is essentially a time-varying tail-event beta, details of whose estimation can be found here.
Molly Fraser

Wikileaks: Saudis Warned About Oil Speculators in 2007 and 2008 - 2 views

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    Kevin Hall of McClatchy wrote about Wikileaks releases showing that the Saudis were concerned about oil market speculation leading to unduly high prices in 2007 and 2008. In 2008, we wrote that the Saudis said they did not see tightness in the market, and they also warned that prices were excessive.
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    It was quite frustrating in 2008 to see economics commentators reject statements by numerous oil market participants that supplies were more than adequate, that the price rise was driven by speculators.
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    The wikileaks releases confirm the fact that the Saudis were not attempting to shift the blame to speculators while privately enjoying profit, but were genuinely concerned over the effect that speculators had on spiking market prices. 2007/2008 saw a jump in oil prices that was unprecedented at the time; in 2007 alone, the price of oil was $58.74/Bbl in February, reaching $65.08/Bbl by June of the same year.
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    Ultimately this merely reaffirms anxieties that oil prices are likely at the whim of speculators rather than actual market availability. Unfortunately, markets are partially based on faith in one's investments; It would be wise in the future to trust the Saudi reports and take into consideration that everyone in the worldwide oil market- including western businesses- are in it for the money.
Joey Keum

UPDATE 2-Canada unveils plan for jobs, balanced budget | Reuters - 0 views

  • Aims to balance budget by 2014 without raising taxes
  • OTTAWA, June 3 (Reuters) - Canada's Conservative government will focus on jobs and growth while eliminating the federal budget deficit, it said on Friday as it unveiled a plan for the four-year mandate it won in last month's election.
  • "We will get back to work on the things that matter most to Canadians: good jobs, security for our families and a prosperous future," Johnston said on behalf of the government.
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  • "Jobs and growth will remain our government's top priority," Johnston said.
  • "In order to accelerate the return to a balanced budget and to eliminate the deficit one year earlier, over the next year we will undertake a strategic and operating review of government spending," he said.
  • "Our government's plan will put us on a strong footing to resume paying down the federal debt, further reduce taxes on families and continue investing in priorities."
Alexei Goudzenko

A bold national energy plan can benefit the provinces - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

  • Canada would benefit just as much from the creation of a national electricity grid as it did from the development of the railway and the pipeline. As a nation-building effort, developing these grid connections would give provinces options to buy and sell power of all stripes. Unlike crude oil, it is a consumer product that can be used everywhere, and Canadian supplies of electricity are increasingly renewable in form. Such a project would increase the renewable power potential for Alberta and Saskatchewan by linking existing and future hydro development in Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba and British Columbia to these markets. While the distances here are excessive, the challenge is not insurmountable.
  • Many Canadians may not realize this, but most of Canada’s long-distance, high-capacity connections for oil and electricity run north-south, not east-west. In these key industries, we have focused almost exclusively on serving the U.S. This is one of the great strengths of our nation -- the ability of each province to create its own best strategy for developing revenue streams. It’s also a weakness, because lack of access to other provincial markets has effectively siloed our energy strategies along provincial lines, leading to a patchwork of development across the country that does not take advantage of potential synergies across regions.
Kevin Yeo

U.S. will be Canada's top export market in 2040 - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

  • Canada has spent years -- and a considerable amount of money -- trying to convince exporters to look beyond the mighty U.S. market and seek customers in fast-growing emerging economies, such as China, India and Brazil.
  • And to some extent, it’s worked. The United States accounted for 75 per cent of total exports last year, down from 85 per cent in the mid-1990s.
  • But a new forecast of long-term export trends by the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade suggests the United States will still be our dominant merchandise export destination in 2040, grabbing virtually an identical share as today, at 75.5 per cent.
Lok-Hin Yuen

CTV News | With temporary workers, flexibility's the name of the game - 1 views

  • Weak business confidence coming out of the global credit crisis is playing a major part in keeping jobless rates at painful levels – U.S. unemployment is nine per cent while Canada is stuck above 7.5 per cent in large part because companies are wary of hiring long-term.
  • Canada’s employment-services industry is mostly temporary staffing along with permanent placements and contract staffing, according to Statscan. Revenue has climbed steadily in the past decade, and employment in the sector has jumped six per cent in the past year alone, to 158,000 people.
  • But as the industry grows around the world – staffing firms are expanding in Europe and in emerging markets such as India and China – there’s an intensifying debate over the merits of an increasingly fluid work force. Proponents say it helps both employers and workers be nimble in globally competitive markets; opponents argue it’s part of a shift toward precarious, lower-pay work.
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  • Temporary workers tend to earn less than permanent staff, they get little or no benefits and many can be fired without notice
  • The earnings gap between a permanent and a contract worker is about 13 per cent, while between a permanent and casual worker the gap is about 34 per cent
  • Labour is typically a company’s most expensive cost, and a contingent labour force helps reduce costs
  • What staffing agencies dub “flexible” work, unions call “precarious.”
  • With the recession and the resulting slackness, employers are in a position where they can offer no security, no benefits, unreliable hours and lousy pay – and still have people apply. And that will persist until either the labour market picks up or we put some restrictions in place on how precarious employment works
  • Lower pay leads to weaker consumer spending, restricts workers’ ability to get a mortgage and makes it more difficult to save for the future.
  • $8.7-billionRevenue from temp industry in Canada in 2009 (up from $1-billion in 1993).158,000Number of Canadians employed in temp services in the past year, up six per cent from year earlier.13%Estimated earnings gap between a permanent worker and a temporary contract worker.
Carolyne Wang

Is income inequality just business as usual? - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

    • Carolyne Wang
       
      The visuals in this link show the distribution of wealth among the highest income earners in Canada.
  • Professor Richard Wilkinson just finished a tour of Canada, discussing his research findings from the past 30 years or so. A social epidemiologist, he has gathered international data showing the very tight correlation between life expectancy and income inequality, between literacy and income inequality, between rates of incarceration and income inequality, etc. etc. Over and over again he shows a range of issues that have a strong social gradient which reveal that almost everybody is better off in a society with greater income equality, including the rich. You can see his presentation in Vancouver at this link. http://i.sfu.ca/TmyYCh
  • For most of the 20th century inequality in Canada - and in virtually all developed nations, actually - had been declining. By the 1980s that long term trend reversed. First because of recessions (where the bottom end of the spectrum lost ground) then because of rowth (when the top part of the income spectrum zoomed ahead). So for the past generation inequality has grown in Canada, in good times and bad.
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  • There are two reasons for hope. One is, oddly, the result of an aging population and the consequent shrinking pool of workers, which may push up wages for workers producing basic goods and services, not just those at the top of the skill spectrum. The other is a culture shift, where a growing number of boomers understand what is at play and start working with others to come up with ways to ensure there will be a resilient middle class for the next generation.
  • When the cost of something goes up, we tend to consume less of it. So, since living wages are higher than minimum wages, employers are likely to hire fewer workers. A living wage campaign is part of the effort to raise the visibility of a sorry development in Canada. The saying that "the best social policy is a job" is in many ways true; but a new reality has developed over the past decade or so - that you can't necessarily escape poverty by working. Working full-time full-year at a minimum wage job, as many adults do, condems you to poverty.
  • international statistics show that poverty rates are lowest where income inequality is lowest too. That can be because of culture -- the wage spectrum is compressed, as in Japan, where it is unseemly to get too far ahead of others in pay -- or through active redistribution programs, where taxes and the services they buy redistribute incomes and opportunities to try to level the playing field a bit more.
  • The Mincome experiment in Manitoba in the mid 1970s, the MacDonald Commission i n the mid 1980s, and the House Report from Newfoundland and Labrador in the early 1990s all had proposals for providing a basic income. Only Manitoba tried it, as a pilot project, for a few years. The problem with the guaranteed income idea is at what rate you set it, and at what rate you tax it back. It could remove the stigma of income support programs, but it could just as easily be a costly experiment that, essentially, guarantees poverty. Also, as Dr. Wilkinson has suggested, at some point on the GDP per capita curve, income inequality is no longer about material deprivation, but rather one of psycho-social responses. We are, after all, pack animals.
  • We can redress some of the vagaries of the market through public policies, but the root cause of growing inequality is how different peoples' work is valued. IN a slow growth environment, which seems to be the foreseeable future for Canada, it will become harder and harder for those at the top of corporate structures to take the types of increases they have been commanding in the marketplace and expect unionized workers to be happy about losing their pension, benefits and wage increases, and expect low-end workers to essentially stay put or lose more ground. Two things can happen - those at the top start moderating their increases; or those in the middle and the bottom start seeing solid increases, particularly as the wave of retirements starts accelerating. The problem with rising incomes, generally, is that usually goes along with rising prices; and we're about to host the largest cohort of retirees we've ever had in history, a group that lives on fixed and low incomes, to whom rising prices are toxic. So how will the highest priced workers get away witih demanding more in that context I wonder?
  • Historically, increasing economic growth first deliver rising inequality, then lowering inequality (Simon Kuznets' famous work back in the 1950s). That's still true of developing nations - economic growth is first badly distributed, then leads to demands for greater equality.
  • We can raise our kids more equitably - but it will take more taxes. We can have less of a winner take all society - but it will require some people at the top to trim their expectations. We can beat this in small ways, but we also need leaders to express the way forward. In the US they have Warren Buffett, Bill Gates and politicians leading the way. We're waiting for more people like Ed Clarke, the CEO of TD Bank, to weigh in on how to make Canada fairer (his suggestion is higher taxes on the rich).
Benjamin Gray

Canadians take Carney's debt warning to heart - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

  • At the time, the average household debt level including mortgages had reached a record 146 per cent of personal disposable income.
  • Ottawa also moved to lower the amount Canadians borrow against their home, reducing the amount homeowners can leverage in a mortgage refinancing to 85 per cent of the property’s value, from 90 per cent.
  • Even though Canada’s economic downturn was shorter and less brutal than in many countries, rising debt could be a problem in a future downturn, particularly if housing prices are hit.
alex yesikov

Could Greece be the next Lehman Brothers? Yes - and potentially even worse | Larry Elli... - 0 views

  • It was less than three years ago that the failure of Lehman Brothers sent tremors through the global financial system, threatening the existence of every major bank and triggering the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression. As Europe's policy elite met for fresh crisis talks today, the dark fear that haunted everyone around the table was this: if the bankruptcy of a middling-sized Wall Street investment bank with no retail customers could have such dire consequences, what would happen if the Greeks decide they have had enough and renege on their debts?
  • Could Greece, in other words, be the new Lehmans? Given the structure of modern financial markets, with their chains of derivative trades and their pyramids of debt, there is only one answer. Greece could certainly be the next Lehmans. The likelihood that a Greek default would pose a threat to the future of the eurozone as well as to the health of the world economy means it has the potential to be worse than Lehmans. Much worse.
  • To be fair, it's a tough one. A single currency that involved a hard core of European countries that were broadly similar in terms of economic development and industrial structure might just have worked. Bolting together a group of 17 disparate economies with different levels of productivity growth, different languages and different business cultures was an accident waiting to happen, and so it has proved.
Carolyne Wang

Economist's View: Why Does Inequality Matter? - 0 views

  • We know that a society with perfect equality does not grow at the fastest possible rate. When everyone gets an equal share of income, people lose the incentive to try and get ahead of others.
  • We also know that a society where one person has almost everything while everyone else struggles to survive—the most unequal distribution of income imaginable—will not grow at the fastest possible rate either. Thus, the growth-maximising level of inequality must lie somewhere between these two extremes
  • As Lane Kenworthy notes, when we look at how inequality has changed in various rich nations over the last several decades, "it turns out that there is no relationship between changes in income inequality and changes in the absolute incomes of low-end households. The reason is that income growth for poor households has come almost entirely via increases in net government transfers." Thus, nations where lower income households have fared better are also the nations where income transfers have been the highest.
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  • One hope for turning this around in the future is education
  • Unfortunately, we won't know the answer until we actually improve education, then wait to see how our better educated young fare when they graduate, a process that will take decades. It will do little to alleviate existing levels of inequality.
  • redistribution of income is the only answer to our inequality problem
  • But won't such policies lower economic growth? No. Given the present, elevated level of inequality, a reduction is unlikely to have much of an impact on incentives that are important for economic growth.
  • If we want to preserve a growing and socially healthy economy, and avoid moving to points on the inequality curve curve associated with lower growth, then we will need to do much more redistribution of income than we have done over the last several decades. That means the wealthy will no longer get it all, or at least almost all; they will be asked to share economic growth with the workers who helped to bring it about, workers who ought to be rewarded for their growing productivity.
  • sharing economic gains among all those who had a hand in creating them is the right thing to do
Steven Iarusci

Report cautions that over-indebted consumers can't drive economy - 0 views

  • a rate hike may come in the fall
    • Steven Iarusci
       
      Interest rates
  • the main message is that consumers cannot be the main engines of economic growth over the next couple of years,” the authors conclude. “Instead, the economy will have to rely on other sources of growth, such as exports and business investment.”
  • Canadians have “eased off the debt-accumulation throttle,”
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  • still net borrowers, meaning they borrow more than they save
  • consumer spending will not be the engine of economic growth in the coming quarters and the inevitable future rebalancing of monetary policy will be a shock to many households
  • some of the drop in household indebtedness is explained by strong income gains, not by debt repayment per se
  • sustainable personal growth is likely in a range of 4.0-4.5 per cent. Credit continues to grow at a pace that is two percentage points above that
  • the level of Canadian household debt — which in December officially surpassed those of our neighbours to the south — is unsustainable
  • total consumer debt load is reported to be about $1.5 trillion
  • Data released late last year suggested Canadians owed on average $112,000 — a figure that includes all kinds of debt, including mortgages — and a debt-to-income ratio of 150 per cent means they were spending $1,500 for every $1,000 in take-home pay
  • Factors that will moderate credit growth over the short term include spending fatigue, a soft landing in the housing market, stricter mortgage rules and Canadians preparing for the higher interest rates that are sure to come as the economy recovers.
dani tav

Op-Ed: Canada's deflating economy - 1 views

  • The reason for the minimal GDP growth that we had was government spending increased over this period and government debt increased by about $139 billion.
  • Government Debt
  • The government is in a dilemma now. Despite the rosy forecasts they like to create showing how well our economy is doing there are reasons for major concerns.
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  • The government's attempt to continue economic growth by borrowing has failed. Canada's economy is going nowhere and we are farther behind because of government debt. The future does not look much better for Canada's economy.
  • Canada's net debt had grown to $582 billion, up from $516 billion two years earlier.
  • Government spending cannot continue to increase especially when it is financed by debt. The recession was started by economies overloaded with debt. Rather than deal with the imbalances government decided to increase spending "grow the economy" and create more debt. Now we are in a predicament that there are no tools left for governments to throw at the economic problems.
  • government borrowing huge amounts of money to bolster the economy
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