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Dave Fones

Japanese Real Estate Bubble Recoverry? - 0 views

  • look at economic trends
  • it is becoming more apparent that we may be entering a time when low wage jobs dominate and home prices remain sluggish for a decade moving forward.
  • looking at the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program, growth of lower paying jobs, baby boomers retiring, and the massive amount of excess housing inventory we start to see why Japan’s post-bubble real estate market is very likely to occur in the United States.
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  • both economies had extraordinarily large real estate bubbles.
  • Massive real estate bubble (check) -Central bank bailing out banks (check) -Bailed out banks keep bad real estate loans on their books at inflated values (check) -Government taking on higher and higher levels of debt relative to GDP (check) -Employment situation stabilizes with less secure labor force (check) -Home prices remain stagnant (check)
  • the United States had never witnessed a year over year drop in nationwide home prices since the Great Depression.
  • home prices are now back to levels last seen 8 years ago.  The lost decade is now nipping at our heels but what about two lost decades like Japan?
  • the U.S. has such a large number of part-time workers and many of the new jobs being added are coming in lower paying sectors signifies that our economy is not supportive of the reasons that gave us solid home prices for many decades. 
  • young Japanese workers, some in their late 20s or early 30s, already resigned that they would never buy a home.
  • The notion that housing is always a great investment runs counter to what they saw in their lives.  Will they even want to buy as many baby boomers put their larger homes on the market
  • many of our young households here are now coming out with massive amounts of student loan debt.
  • Lower incomes, more debt, and less job security.  What this translated to in Japan was stagnant home prices for 20 full years.  We are nearing our 10 year bear market anniversary in real estate so another 10 is not impossible.  What can change this?  Higher median household incomes across the nation but at a time when gas costs $4 a gallon, grocery prices are increasing, college tuition is in a bubble, and the financial system operates with no reform and exploits the bubble of the day, it is hard to see why Americans would be pushing home prices higher.
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    Explains how Japan has responded to the breaking of their real estate market bubble and the effect it has had on Japan's economy
Don Doehla

The Shanghai Secret - NYTimes.com - 26 views

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    HANGHAI - Whenever I visit China, I am struck by the sharply divergent predictions of its future one hears. Lately, a number of global investors have been "shorting" China, betting that someday soon its powerful economic engine will sputter, as the real estate boom here turns to a bust. Frankly, if I were shorting China today, it would not be because of the real estate bubble, but because of the pollution bubble that is increasingly enveloping some of its biggest cities. Optimists take another view: that, buckle in, China is just getting started, and that what we're now about to see is the payoff from China's 30 years of investment in infrastructure and education. I'm not a gambler, so I'll just watch this from the sidelines. But if you're looking for evidence as to why the optimistic bet isn't totally crazy, you might want to visit a Shanghai elementary school.
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    HANGHAI - Whenever I visit China, I am struck by the sharply divergent predictions of its future one hears. Lately, a number of global investors have been "shorting" China, betting that someday soon its powerful economic engine will sputter, as the real estate boom here turns to a bust. Frankly, if I were shorting China today, it would not be because of the real estate bubble, but because of the pollution bubble that is increasingly enveloping some of its biggest cities. Optimists take another view: that, buckle in, China is just getting started, and that what we're now about to see is the payoff from China's 30 years of investment in infrastructure and education. I'm not a gambler, so I'll just watch this from the sidelines. But if you're looking for evidence as to why the optimistic bet isn't totally crazy, you might want to visit a Shanghai elementary school.
Craig Campbell

The Siege of Academe - www.washingtonmonthly.com - Readability - 1 views

    • Craig Campbell
       
      Fear is a powerful motivator. Running scared.
  • Thiel fellowship.”
  • PR move
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  • the whole thing is a corrupt enterprise doomed to collapse in a spectacular, real-estate-market-circa-2008 fashion. The media lapped it up, and soon enough Thiel was featured in long New York and New Yorker profiles.
  • What Happened to the Future? We Wanted Flying Cars, Instead We Got 140 Characters.”
  • Investors have chased after clever short-term innovations and looked for quick profit, which is not only bad for the world but bad for most investors—since 1999, according to the manifesto, venture capital has lost money on average. Only the top 20 percent are any good.
  • There is a great deal of money and power at stake now. We may not know who and we may not know when, but someone is going to write the software that eats higher education.
  • most of the first adopters won’t be American students forgoing the opportunity to drink beer on weekends at State U. Instead, they’ll be students like Bali, among the hundreds of millions of people around the world with the talent and desire to learn but no State U to attend.
  • Political pressure will continue to grow for credits earned in low-cost MOOCs to be transferable to traditional colleges, cutting into the profit margins that colleges have traditionally enjoyed in providing large, lecture-based college courses.
Todd Campion

Great Expectations - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - 0 views

  • Miss Havisham and her family Miss Havisham, wealthy spinster who takes Pip on as a companion and whom Pip suspects is his benefactor. Miss Havisham does not discourage this as it fits into her own spiteful plans. She later apologizes to him as she's overtaken by guilt. He accepts her apology and she is badly burnt when her dress catches aflame from a spark which leapt from the fire. Pip saves her, but she later dies from her injuries. Estella (Havisham), Miss Havisham's adopted daughter, whom Pip pursues romantically throughout the novel. She is secretly the daughter of Molly, Jaggers' housekeeper, and Abel Magwitch, Pip's convict, but was given up to Miss Havisham after a murder trial. Estella represents the life of wealth and culture for which Pip strives. Since her ability to love has been ruined by Miss Havisham, she is unable to return Pip's passion. She warns Pip of this repeatedly, but he is unwilling or unable to believe her. At one point, Estella is walking up some iron stairs representing how she is of a higher class than Pip when in fact she is of the same class. Arthur (Havisham), Miss Havisham's half-brother, who felt he was shortchanged in his inheritance by their father's preference for his daughter. He joined with Compeyson in the scheme to cheat Miss Havisham of large sums of money by gaining Miss Havisham's trust through promise of marriage to Compeyson. Arthur is haunted by the memory of the scheme and sickens and dies in a delirium, imagining that the still-living Miss Havisham is in his room, coming to kill him. Arthur has died before the beginning of the novel and gambled heavily, being drunk quite often. Matthew Pocket, a cousin of Miss Havisham's. He is the patriarch of the Pocket family, but unlike others of her relatives he is not greedy for Havisham's wealth. Matthew Pocket has a family of nine children, two nurses, a housekeeper, a cook, and a pretty but useless wife (named Belinda). He also tutors young gentlemen, such as Bentley Drummle, Startop, Pip, and his own son Herbert, who live on his estate. Herbert Pocket, a member of the Pocket family, Miss Havisham's presumed heirs, whom Pip first meets as a "pale young gentleman" who challenges Pip to a fist fight at Miss Havisham's house when both are children. He is the son of Matthew Pocket, Pip's tutor in the "gentlemanly" arts, and shares his apartment with Pip in London, becoming Pip's fast friend who is there to share Pip's happiness as well as his troubles. He is in love with a girl called Clara. Herbert keeps it secret because he knows his mother would say she is below his "station". Camilla, an ageing, talkative relative of Miss Havisham who does not care much for Miss Havisham and only wants her money. She is one of the many relatives who hang around Miss Havisham "like flies" for her wealth. Cousin Raymond, another ageing relative of Miss Havisham who is only interested in her money. He is married to Camilla. Georgiana, an ageing relative of Miss Havisham who is only interested in her money. Sarah Pocket, "a dry, brown corrugated old woman, with a small face that might have been made out of walnut shells, and a large mouth like a cat's without the whiskers." Another ageing relative of Miss Havisham who is only interested in her money
  • Characters from Pip's youth The Convict, an escapee from a prison ship, whom Pip treats kindly, and who turns out to be his benefactor, at which time his real name is revealed to be Abel Magwitch, but who is also known as Provis and Mr. Campbell in parts of the story to protect his identity. Pip also covers him as his uncle in order that no one recognizes him as a convict sent to Australia years before. Abel Magwitch, the convict's given name, who is also Pip's benefactor. Provis, a name that Abel Magwitch uses when he returns to London, to conceal his identity. Pip also says that "Provis" is his uncle visiting from out of town. Mr. Campbell, a name that Abel Magwitch uses after he is discovered in London by his enemy. Mr. and Mrs. Hubble, simple folk who think they are more important than they really are. They live in Pip's village. Mr. Wopsle, the clerk of the church in Pip's village. He later gives up the church work and moves to London to pursue his ambition to be an actor, even though he is not very good. Mr. Waldengarver, the stage name that Mr. Wopsle adopts as an actor in London. Biddy, Mr. Wopsle's second cousin; she runs an evening school from her home in Pip's village and becomes Pip's teacher. A kind and intelligent but poor young woman, she is, like Pip and Estella, an orphan. She is the opposite of Estella. Pip ignores her obvious love for him as he fruitlessly pursues Estella. After he realizes the error of his life choices, he returns to claim Biddy as his bride, only to find out she has married Joe Gargery. Biddy and Joe later have two children, one named after Pip whom Estella mistakes as Pip's child in the original ending. Orlick was attracted to her, but his affection was unreciprocated
Justin Medved

How schools get it wrong - thestar.com - 19 views

  • Zachary Stein, who is doing his Ph.D. in human education and development at Harvard University's graduate school of education, notes that when he and a colleague tried to persuade a school board in Texas to change their tests so that they actually captured what children understood, those most strongly pitted against the changes were real estate brokers.
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