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joepouttu

Syria leader Bashar Assad rejects "transitional body" demand by opposition in Geneva pe... - 0 views

www.cbsnews.com/...-opposition-geneva-peace-talks

Syria Opposition Assad

shared by joepouttu on 30 Mar 16 - No Cached
  • joepouttu on 30 Mar 16
     
    Assad has rejected a main component of the opposition's demands. He does not want to elect a transitional body for the transitional period, and instead wants the current government to see out the transition. 
alarsso

Inside the quiet effort to plan for a post-Assad Syria | Foreign Policy - 0 views

foreignpolicy.com/...to-plan-for-a-post-assad-syria

politics syria post-assad transition government

shared by alarsso on 28 Jan 15 - No Cached
  • The absence of Obama administration officials at these meetings, even as observers, was deliberate.
  • purposely stayed away from contributing to the direct overthrow of the Assad regime,
  • not directly involved U.S. government officials
  • ...10 more annotations...
  • The project is called "The day after: Supporting a democratic transition in Syria."
  • providing updates
  • o the Arab League, the Friends of Syria group, the team of U.N. Special Envoy Kofi Annan, and the opposition Syrian National Council.
  • develop concrete plans
  • immediate aftermath
  • mitigate the risks of bureaucratic, security, and economic chaos.
  • USIP’s involvement is primarily in a facilitation and coordination
  • plans to reform the justice sector
  • ole of the armed opposition in a post-Assad Syria
  • transition is not sweeping away of the entire political and judicial framework of Syria
  • alarsso on 28 Jan 15
     
    Committee meets to prepare plan for possible transition during post-assad period.
ccfuentez

http://www.protectionproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/Algeria.pdf - 0 views

www.protectionproject.org/...Algeria.pdf

Algeria origin transit trafficking in persons forced labor prostitution

shared by ccfuentez on 22 Mar 16 - No Cached
  • ccfuentez on 22 Mar 16
     
    Algeria is a country of origin and transit for trafficking in persons, women men and children, for forced labor, sexual exploitation and organ harvesting. Victims from Sub-Sahara Africa enter Algeria voluntarily and are trafficked to Europe. Men are primarily subjected to forced labor while women become part of the prostitution chain, paying off their smuggling debts.
allieggg

The U.S. Is Giving Up on Middle East Democracy-and That's a Mistake - The Atlantic - 0 views

www.theatlantic.com/...282890

middle east democracy institutions Bush Obama Congress

shared by allieggg on 29 Sep 14 - No Cached
  • democracy assistance to the region, which will drop from $459.2 million to $298.3 million
  • Today’s Middle East is a product, at least in part, of failed democratization, and one of the reasons it failed was the timid, half-hearted support of the Obama administration.
  • the significant impact Western leverage and “linkage” can have on democratic transitions.
  • ...8 more annotations...
  • “it was an externally driven shift in the cost of suppression, not changes in domestic conditions, that contributed most centrally to the demise of authoritarianism in the 1980s and 1990s.” They find that “states’ vulnerability to Western democratization pressure… was often decisive.”
  • it is also worth noting that President Bush acknowledged the existence of a “tyranny-terror” link—the notion that the root causes of extremism and terrorism can be found in the region’s enduring lack of democracy.
  • the administration’s approach to the region is characterized almost entirely by ad-hoc crisis management and traditional counterterrorism approaches. Its one larger-scale reform initiative—a half-hearted proposal for a
  • We argue that the U.S. and its partners now need to consider a very different approach to Middle East democracy assistance.
  • Conventional democracy promotion activities tend to focus on the process and “retail” aspects of democratic politics—things like elections, political party training, get-out-the-vote (GOTV) campaigns, and civil society enhancement. While these are undoubtedly important, they are insufficient to deliver lasting reforms. Authoritarianism in the Arab world has proven time and time again—even in supposedly post-revolutionary settings such as Egypt today—that it can weather the annoyances of elections and civil society.
  • What is needed are more systematic reforms focused on fundamental institutions. These include things like constraining the military’s role in civilian domains of governance, deep reform in the security and justice sectors including law enforcement and policing, and comprehensive “renovation” of the civil service sector. These are large-scale, long-term, and expensive undertakings that far transcend the modest parameters of most U.S. democracy promotion programs.
  • we make the case for a new Multilateral Endowment for Reform (MER) that would tie significant levels of financial assistance—in the billions of dollars—to reform commitments and benchmarked implementation performance by partner nations.
  • provide a real incentive for countries to embark down a path to deeper and more enduring political reforms while retaining the ability to pull back funding if they do not deliver.
  • allieggg on 29 Sep 14
     
    This article begins by illuminating the regional democracy assistance cuts that are dropping from $459.2 million to $298.3 million It explains that the Bush Administration began the quest for democracy in the Middle East, and the Obama administration has only continued in his footsteps. The author presents the viewpoint that the U.S. approach to Arab democratization has been in the form of "ad-hoc crisis management" rather than "large scale reform initiatives." Promoting democracy in the form of democratic politics are insufficient, elections and political parties have consistently proved to weather away and fester further civil strife. Consequently, the article proposes a new approach to the region conflict. This approach calls for "systematic reforms" focusing on basic institutions such as the civil service sector, justice and law enforcement, and the military's role in governance. The idea is that addressing these lacking departments in the arab world will eventually pave the way to a smoother democratic transition. 
allieggg

Islamists Aren't the Obstacle | Foreign Affairs - 0 views

www.foreignaffairs.com/...islamists-arent-the-obstacle

middle east democracy Islamists institutions egypt politics tunisia

shared by allieggg on 28 Sep 14 - No Cached
micklethwait liked it
  • A minority of the population -- 26 percent of Tunisians and 28 percent of Egyptians -- believes that Islam should play a large role in government.
  • Both secularists and Islamists associate democracy with economic prosperity
  • Islamist parties received considerable support in both countries' recent elections -- not only because there is a broad ideological affinity for Islamism among the population but also because of Islamist parties' effective campaigning.
  • ...10 more annotations...
  • When asked about the most important feature of a democracy, 69 percent of Egyptians and 32 percent of Tunisians put providing people with basic necessities or narrowing the gap between rich and poor at the top of their lists.
  • On a related note, Islamist parties have shown a remarkable ability to maintain their base.
  • Tunisia has fared better than Egypt so far in the post-Arab Spring transition, with less violence, fewer demonstrations, and greater political stability. This is in part because challenges are easier to confront in a country of only 11 million, 98 percent of whom are Sunni Muslim, compared to the more diverse and populous Egypt. But Tunisia's success is primarily a result of its stronger institutions, which provide a conduit for political debate.
  • Many onlookers claim that Egypt's more tumultuous post-revolution trajectory is because of the country's legacy of religiosity and Islamism.
  • Egyptians, in fact, are no more religious than Tunisians.
  • Egypt's institutions are weak and have been routinely undermined by entrenched interests. The countries' different geopolitical situations play a role here. Tunisia's minimal strategic importance means that foreign countries have less reason to intervene. But Egypt's proximity to Israel and the Palestinian territories, its 1979 peace treaty with Israel, and its role as an intermediary between Israel and Hamas make its political developments important to Israel and the United States. Consequently, Egypt is vulnerable to foreign interference, particularly to attempts to prop up its military. Furthermore, beyond serving as a pillar to Egypt's authoritarian regimes, the Egyptian military has significant business interests and accounts for ten to 30 percent of Egypt's gross domestic product.
  • Egypt's judicial branch, which is also more powerful than Tunisia's, has at times undermined democratic processes.
  • Egyptian Supreme Constitutional Court ruled that the Islamist-dominated parliament and the Constituent Assembly it elected were unconstitutional, because Islamist parties contested seats intended for independent candidates. The move polarized the country and pushed the executive branch to take extreme measures.
  • Egyptian democracy is undermined by the inability of institutions to address citizens' demands and the impulse of powerful actors to interfere, not by the divide between Islamists and secularists. Institutions in Egypt fail to provide a meaningful forum for debate. As a result, violent street protesters and extremist sheiks are gaining power.
  • U.S. policy must support institutions rather than actors, and processes rather than outcomes, in order to help Egypt and Tunisia achieve their democratic potential.
  • allieggg on 28 Sep 14
     
    The Council on Foreign Relations published an article about democratization in the middle east and the major obstacles that are present in the process. While most assume Islamists and Islamic embedded institutions are the root of the delayed democratic transition, the problems are much bigger than that. While Islamist regimes do indeed stunt the growth of democratic progress in terms of creating a stable government, Arab countries struggle with economic and social factors as well. The Arab Spring Revolutions have caused economic and social degradation across the region, resulting in a road block of political leadership. Without a reliable and capable government structure, the states are unable to progress economically. However, in order to have a stable government, social and economic institutions must be in place to create this capitalist economy that they strive for. Because most wealth resides in oil, the revenue that the states bring in isn't distributed properly throughout society and is concentrated within few business elites. The article stresses that instead of foreign aid going into the hands of an unstable leader or regime, it should be invested in institutions in order to spur economic growth and eliminate corruption. Rather than focusing on the Islamist-secularist divide, the world should be working towards the strengthening of institutions to create a stable foundation for governance. 
allieggg

Davutoglu: Failure to support democracy led to ISIL Anadolu Agency - 0 views

www.aa.com.tr/...-support-democracy-led-to-isil

Davutoglu Turkey democracy middle east ISIL

shared by allieggg on 10 Oct 14 - No Cached
micklethwait liked it
  • The rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant is caused by the world's failure to support democracy in the Middle East,
  • " ISIL now exists because we did not properly support the democratic transition processes in 2012, not becauseISIL is so strong or the Syrian and Iraqi people are aligned to ISIL-like radical acts."
  • "We welcomed the Arab Spring when it first began to flourish as we thought the EU and the U.S. would support and finance the Middle East just as they did for the wind of democracy in the Balkans,"
  • ...3 more annotations...
  • Davutoglu said countries like Poland and Romania now enjoy democracy due to finance from the EU but, he added, "no state came up to finance democracy in the Middle East."
  • Syria faces a terrorist threat instead of  democracy is because the world abandonedSyria.
  • "Islamic communities that have a deep-rooted culture of politics have the capacity, like any other nation and religion, to both keep democracy alive and improve it,” he added. “Neither Islam nor the world of Islam can be correlated with entities like ISIL."
  • allieggg on 10 Oct 14
     
    Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu spoke at the World Economic Forum about the world's lack of assistance in the transition to democracy in the Middle East and how that ultimately facilitated the birth of ISIL. He explains how a number of EU states were able to maneuver into the democratic realm with the assistance and guidance of the EU, illuminating the idea that the Middle East should be no different. Davutoglu condemns the west for abandoning Middle Eastern states in their dire time of need. While countries around the world supported the Arab Spring, they did nothing to support or finance it to success. He says it would be wrong to correlate the birth of ISIL with Islam, explaining how Islamic communities are perfectly capable of embracing democratic systems. However, assistance in its implementation is vital.
alarsso

Syria After Assad: Managing the Challenges of Transition | United States Institute of P... - 0 views

www.usip.org/...ging-the-challenges-transition

post-assad transition syria

shared by alarsso on 28 Jan 15 - No Cached
  • alarsso on 28 Jan 15
     
    Meeting at USIP to discuss post-assad government in Syria
ccfuentez

YMCACE MUN Assignments - 0 views

mun1-reg.ymcace.org/crp-view

Algeria human trafficking destination country prostitution forced labor

shared by ccfuentez on 31 Mar 16 - No Cached
  • ccfuentez on 31 Mar 16
     
    Algeria is a transit and source country for human trafficking. Many people susceptible to the Algerian human trafficking are sub-saharan men, women and children.
fcastro2

Syria crisis: Where key countries stand - BBC News - 0 views

www.bbc.com/...world-middle-east-23849587

syria politics Russia China US UK France Arab States

shared by fcastro2 on 08 Apr 15 - No Cached
  • The eruption of civil conflict in Syria in 2011 very quickly provoked a deep split in the international community over which side to back and what outcome to see
  • Syria regarded as the world's most pressing crisis, the US and Russia, along with other permanent members of the UN Security Council, Turkey and Arab states, have attempted to resolve their differences.
  • Their Geneva Communique, which calls for a transitional government based on "mutual consent", has become the basis for peace talks in the Swiss city. But it is clear the sides have different interpretations of the plan, and have so far failed to achieve a breakthroug
  • ...20 more annotations...
  • US wants Bashar al-Assad out of power, and is pushing for the transitional government called for in the Geneva communique.
  • President Barack Obama sought Congressional support for military action but postponed the vote - which was not certain to pass - when Syria indicated it would surrender its chemical stockpile
  • United States has been one of the most prominent advocates of firm action against the Syrian government, which it has accused of using chemical weapons and other atrocities.
  • It is backing Syria's "moderate opposition" with "non-lethal" assistance, including communications equipment, generators, and office supplies - but is also believed to be supplying light weapon
  • Russia is one of Mr Assad's most important international backers and has warned the US and its allies against taking one-sided action against Syria
  • Russia was key to Syria agreeing to give up chemical weapons, and backs the Geneva Communique. But it has repeatedly said Syria's future should be decided by Syrians and blocked anti-Assad resolutions at the UN Security Council. It continues to supply Syria with arms, including missile systems and aircraft
  • Britain has been a big critic of the Assad government and signed a statement in 2013 calling for a "strong international respons
  • supported military action but had to rule out Britain's involvement when he failed to secure the backing of parliament in August 2013.
  • UK, along with France, successfully lobbied for the EU's arms embargo to be lifted so as to allow further supplies to Syrian rebels
  • France has been among the most hawkish Western countries and was the first to stop recognising the Syrian government and deal with the main opposition coalition instead.
  • France up to join US military action until plans were put on hold. The president acknowledged that France could not, and would not, act on its own
  • China has joined Russia in blocking resolutions critical of Syria at the UN Security Council. It has criticised the prospect of strikes against Syria, insisting any military action without UN approval would be illegal.
  • Turkish government has been one of the most vocal critics of Syrian President Assad since early on in the uprising and signalled its willingness to join international action even without UN approval
  • Saudi Arabia has been a rival of the Syrian government for years. It has been particularly active in pushing for action against Mr Assad, and called for "all legal means possible" to be used to stop the bloodshed
  • Qatar is thought to be one of the main suppliers of weapons to Syrian rebels and says outside military intervention has become a necessity to protect the Syrian people.
  • ebanon there is deep division between supporters and opponents of President Assad. The country has suffered from an overspill of violence, including bomb attacks, as well as a huge flood of refugees. It has said it thinks military intervention might make the situation worse.
  • Jordan has also received hundreds of thousands of refugees and has called for a political solution to the conflic
  • Iran has been Syria's main backer in the region since well before the current conflict.
  • Iran has warned that any foreign intervention risks sparking a regional war.
  • Israel regards President Assad as an enemy, but has refrained from publicly backing military action against him. It fears its backing could alienate the Arab world,
  • fcastro2 on 08 Apr 15
     
    This article details were certain countries, that are most affected by the Syrian conflict, stand within the conflict and how they would like to solve the issue. 
kkerby223

Saudi Women Right to Drive Activists Tap Twitter - 0 views

time.com/...udi-arabia-women-drive-twitter

saudi right drive twitter loujain

shared by kkerby223 on 02 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • kkerby223 on 02 Mar 15
     
    This article, from the Times, discusses the transition seen in Saudi Arabia after the death of Kind Abdullah. It specifically discusses the story of a woman, named Loujain Al Hathloul, who drove illegally and was stopped by police. The police took her passport and refused to let her drive. She took to Twitter about the experience as she sat for about a day in her car until she was arrested.
kbrisba

Beji Caid Essebsi, ex-minister under Tunisian dictatorship, elected president - Telegraph - 0 views

www.telegraph.co.uk/...torship-elected-president.html

shared by kbrisba on 15 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • kbrisba on 15 Mar 15
     
    Beji Caid Essebsi, 88-year-old former minister from Tunisia's years under dictatorship won the country's first ever democratic vote for president. He became the nation's new head of state with 55 percent of the vote, capping a four-year-long democratic transition.
cbrock5654

Turkey and the PKK: Saving the Peace Process - 0 views

www.crisisgroup.org/...-saving-the-peace-process.aspx

Turkey PKK International Crisis Group

shared by cbrock5654 on 10 Nov 14 - No Cached
  • cbrock5654 on 10 Nov 14
     
    This is a report published on November 6, 2014 by the International Crisis Group about the current peace talks between Turkey's President Ergodan and leaders of the PKK. It discusses how after decades of conflict which cost tens of thousands of people their lives, neither Turkey nor the PKK believe that military victory is possible, and are meeting to discuss a peaceful resolution. However, the events in Syria has reignited ever-present tensions between the two groups, and a fruitful compromise between them is seeming less likely. In this report, the International Crisis Group details the parameters of a possible peace deal, and states that differences need to be put aside so that basic issues like "transitional justice, disarmament and decentralization" can be resolved.
andrea_hoertz

Gaddafi died 3 years ago. Would Libya be better off if he hadn't? - The Washington Post - 0 views

www.washingtonpost.com/...ibya-be-better-off-if-he-hadnt

libya Qaddafi civil war democracy

shared by andrea_hoertz on 11 Nov 14 - No Cached
  • But the real issue is why the international community, after a seven-month air campaign, neglected post-conflict reconstruction."
    • andrea_hoertz
      andrea_hoertz on 11 Nov 14
       
      Libya lacks the basis for creating a functioning government and society- globalization perspective
  • andrea_hoertz on 11 Nov 14
     
    This article discusses Libya and whether or not it would have been better off if Qaddafi had not been killed. The article says that because libya is a resource rich country, and is close to Europe, it had pretty good chances of making a smooth transition to peace and stability.
andrea_hoertz

Libya in shock after murder of human rights activist Salwa Bugaighis | World news | The... - 0 views

www.theguardian.com/...ivist-salwa-bugaighis-benghazi

libya extremists human rights

shared by andrea_hoertz on 11 Nov 14 - No Cached
  • andrea_hoertz on 11 Nov 14
     
    In this article, Salwa Bugaighis was stabbed and shot through the head by gunmen who broke into her house in Benghazi. Her husband was also abducted and remains missing. Salwa and her husband had just returned from an election and the attack is a reminder of the growing number of extremists taking over Libya. "Her killing triggered outrage on social media, with one supporter tweeting: "Salwa Bugaighis was hope. Shocked and saddened." Salwa was a part of the National Transitional Council, but left after accusing it of freezing-out female members. She also opposed moves to make the wearing of the hijab compulsory, and her views brought her into conflict with the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamist extremists.
fcastro2

Syrian Opposition Groups Wary Of Russia's Invitation To Moscow : NPR - 0 views

www.npr.org/...f-russias-invitation-to-moscow

russia opposition groups syria politics peace talks war

shared by fcastro2 on 13 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • U.N. envoy is pressing ahead on that front, while Russia tries to play peacemaker
    • fcastro2
      fcastro2 on 13 Feb 15
       
      U.N. continues to try to collaborate with both groups while Russia wants to be a "peacemaker."
  • Russia is inviting the parties to Moscow this month, but some opposition groups won't go to a country that has been backing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
    • fcastro2
      fcastro2 on 13 Feb 15
       
      Rebel groups in Syria do not trust the Russian government since they have been supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. 
  • ...14 more annotations...
  • Syrian opposition figures have good reason to be skeptical of Moscow's diplomatic moves
  • they provide weapons and advice to the Assad regime and they have taken an approach of cherry-picking who they talk to and who the regime talks to
  • The U.S. is not pressuring the opposition groups it supports to go to Moscow. Instead it's suggesting they should think about it so that Russia can't blame the opposition for the diplomatic stalemate
    • fcastro2
      fcastro2 on 13 Feb 15
       
      U.S. is not pushing for the opposition groups to go to Moscow to talk peace but they feel they have nothing to lose if they do.
  • "If there are no guarantees as to the end state, that is, a movement towards a transitional government with full executive powers without Assad, then there is really no reason to go
  • meant to revive the peace process that started in Geneva in 2012
  • Russians aren't in a position to decide who will take part in future negotiations. And this has been the whole problem with their approach.
    • fcastro2
      fcastro2 on 13 Feb 15
       
      Russian strategy
  • He says the Russian job has always been to deliver the regime to the negotiating table, but the Syrian government only wants to talk about fighting terrorism, not discuss a political transition.
  • We are hoping, more than expecting, that it will be a success," he says.De Mistura describes Syria as the largest humanitarian crisis since World War II
  • They all agree that we need to do something to avoid that the Syrian conflict goes into a back burner and that movement towards some type of political solution should take place this year,"
  • He says that's because Assad thinks he's winning — and U.S. plans to train and equip 5,000 moderate rebels a year won't help level the playing field.
  • The rise of the self-proclaimed Islamic State and the U.S.-led airstrikes against that group in both Syria and Iraq now top the U.S. agenda.
  • war in Syria has been raging for nearly four years and it's been challenging for diplomats to get warring sides to agree on even temporary truces.
    • fcastro2
      fcastro2 on 13 Feb 15
       
      No guarantees as to what the alleged "peace talks" will provide from the opposition groups. 
  • fcastro2 on 13 Feb 15
     
    Russia is attempting to bring opposition groups and the Syrian government to Moscow in order to "talk peace." In the past, Russia has supported the Syrian President and because of this, opposition groups are wearing of these alleged "peace talks." 
alarsso

WRMEA | Human Rights: Activists Discuss Post-Assad Syria - 0 views

www.wrmea.org/...-discuss-post-assad-syria.html

post-assad syria human rights The Day After

shared by alarsso on 15 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • presented are the result of monthly deliberations among 45 to 50 key figures of the Syrian opposition,
  • Steve Heydemann,
  • the establishment of a new order in Syria will not start only upon the fall of the regime.
  • ...9 more annotations...
  • he said, "The Day After" focused on the development of programs and strategies that assist already autonomous regions of Syria.
  • Shawnee State University professor Afra Jalabi
  • discussed
  • he lack of accountability for human rights and the need for justice, Jalabi said.
  • The goal
  • empower the Syrian people,
  • create a culture of equality under the rule of law, Jalabi continued.
  • Murhaf Jouejati,
  • "there are good apples that we can rely on after the collapse of the Assad regime" to assist new security forces.
  • alarsso on 15 Feb 15
     
    A group of scholars meet to discuss transition into post-assad Syria. focuses include human rights, and whether or not to completely abolish existing regime.
kbrisba

Tunisia Arrests 32 Militants, Says it Foiled 'Spectacular' Attacks - 0 views

www.voanews.com/...2633515.html

shared by kbrisba on 09 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • kbrisba on 09 Feb 15
     
    Tunisia forces arrest 32 terrorists that were planning to attack targets in Tunis and other cities. Essid (prime minister) stated they are strengthening measures to combat extremism and strengthen security capabilities to confront terrorism and the protection of the democratic transition.
wmulnea

Libya's civil war: That it should come to this | The Economist - 3 views

www.economist.com/...factional-chaos-it-should-come

shared by wmulnea on 11 Apr 15 - No Cached
  • It is split between a government in Beida, in the east of the country, which is aligned with the military; and another in Tripoli, in the west, which is dominated by Islamists and militias from western coastal cities
  • Benghazi is again a battlefield.
  • The black plumes of burning oil terminals stretch out over the Mediterranean.
  • ...69 more annotations...
  • Libya looked like the latest fragile blossoming of the Arab spring
  • Army commanders, mostly of Arab Bedouin origin, refused orders to shoot the protesters
  • the revolutionaries cobbled together a National Transitional Council (NTC) claiming to represent all of Libya
  • Volunteers from students to bank managers took up arms, joining popular militias and only sometimes obeying the orders of defecting army commanders trying to take control
  • In August Western bombing of government bases surrounding Tripoli cleared an avenue for the revolutionaries to take the capital.
  • Recognised abroad, popular at home and enjoying the benefits of healthy oil revenues—97% of the government’s income—the NTC was well placed to lay the foundations for a new Libya
  • he judges, academics and lawyers who filled its ranks worried about their own legitimacy and feared confrontation with the militias which, in toppling Qaddafi, had taken his arsenals for their own.
  • militia leaders were already ensconced in the capital’s prime properties
  • The NTC presided over Libya’s first democratic elections in July 2012, and the smooth subsequent handover of power to the General National Congress (GNC) revived popular support for the revolution.
  • Islamist parties won only 19 of 80 seats assigned to parties in the new legislature, and the process left the militias on the outside
  • The Homeland party, founded by Abdel Hakim Belhad
  • tried to advertise its moderation by putting an unveiled woman at the head of its party list in Benghazi
  • The incumbent prime minister, Abdurrahim al-Keib, a university professor who had spent decades in exile, fretted and dithered
  • He bowed to militia demands for their leaders to be appointed to senior ministries, and failed to revive public-works programmes
  • which might have given militiamen jobs
  • Many received handouts without being required to hand in weapons or disband, an incentive which served to swell their ranks
  • the number of revolutionaries registered with the Warriors Affairs Commission set up by the NTC was about 60,000; a year later there were over 200,000. Of some 500 registered militias, almost half came from one city, Misrata.
  • In May 2013 the militias forced parliament to pass a law barring from office anyone who had held a senior position in Qaddafi’s regime after laying siege to government ministries.
  • In the spring of 2014, Khalifa Haftar, a retired general who had earlier returned from two decades of exile in America, forcibly tried to dissolve the GNC and re-establish himself as the armed forces’ commander-in-chief in an operation he called Dignity
  • The elections which followed were a far cry from the happy experience of 2012. In some parts of the country it was too dangerous to go out and vote
  • Such retrenchment has been particularly noticeable among women. In 2011 they created a flurry of new civil associations; now many are back indoors.
  • Turnout in the June 2014 elections was 18%, down from 60% in 2012, and the Islamists fared even worse than before
  • Dismissing the results, an alliance of Islamist, Misratan and Berber militias called Libya Dawn launched a six-week assault on Tripoli. The newly elected parliament decamped to Tobruk, some 1,300km east
  • Grasping for a figleaf of legitimacy, Libya Dawn reconstituted the pre-election GNC and appointed a new government
  • So today Libya is split between two parliaments—both boycotted by their own oppositions and inquorate—two governments, and two central-bank governors.
  • The army—which has two chiefs of staff—is largely split along ethnic lines, with Arab soldiers in Arab tribes rallying around Dignity and the far fewer Misratan and Berber ones around Libya Dawn.
  • Libya Dawn controls the bulk of the territory and probably has more fighters at its disposal.
  • General Haftar’s Dignity, which has based its government in Beida, has air power and, probably, better weaponry
  • the Dignity movement proclaims itself America’s natural ally in the war on terror and the scourge of jihadist Islam
  • Libya Dawn’s commanders present themselves as standard-bearers of the revolution against Qaddafi now continuing the struggle against his former officers
  • Ministers in the east vow to liberate Tripoli from its “occupation” by Islamists, all of whom they denounce as terrorists
  • threatens to take the war to Egypt if Mr Sisi continues to arm the east. Sleeping cells could strike, he warns, drawn from the 2m tribesmen of Libyan origin in Egypt.
  • Yusuf Dawar
  • The struggle over the Gulf of Sirte area, which holds Libya’s main oil terminals and most of its oil reserves, threatens to devastate the country’s primary asset
  • And in the Sahara, where the largest oilfields are, both sides have enlisted ethnic minorities as proxies
  • ibya Dawn has drafted in the brown-skinned Tuareg, southern cousins of the Berbers; Dignity has recruited the black-skinned Toubou. As a result a fresh brawl is brewing in the Saharan oasis of Ubari, which sits at the gates of the al-Sharara oilfield, largest of them all.
  • Oil production has fallen and become much more volatile
  • oil is worth half as much as it was a year ago
  • The Central Bank is now spending at three times the rate that it is taking in oil money
  • The bank is committed to neutrality, but is based in Tripoli
  • Tripoli may have a little more access to cash, but is in bad shape in other ways
  • Fuel supplies and electricity are petering out
  • Crime is rising; carjacking street gangs post their ransom demands on Twitter
  • In Fashloum
  • residents briefly erected barricades to keep out a brigade of Islamists, the Nuwassi
  • “No to Islamists and the al-Qaeda gang” reads the roadside graffiti
  • Libya’s ungoverned spaces are growing,
  • Each month 10,000 migrants set sail for Europe
  • On January 3rd, IS claimed to have extended its reach to Libya’s Sahara too, killing a dozen soldiers at a checkpoint
  • The conflict is as likely to spread as to burn itself out.
  • the Western powers
  • have since been conspicuous by their absence. Chastened by failure in Afghanistan and Iraq, they have watched from the sidelines
  • Obama washed his hands of Libya after Islamists killed his ambassador
  • Italy, the former colonial power, is the last country to have a functioning embassy in Tripoli.
  • Even under Qaddafi the country did not feel so cut off
  • Dignity is supported not just by Mr Sisi but also by the United Arab Emirates, which has sent its own fighter jets into the fray as well as providing arms
  • The UAE’s Gulf rival, Qatar, and Turkey have backed the Islamists and Misratans in the west
  • If oil revenues were to be put into an escrow account, overseas assets frozen and the arms embargo honoured he thinks it might be possible to deprive fighters of the finance that keeps them fighting and force them to the table
  • Until 1963 Libya was governed as three federal provinces—Cyrenaica in the east, Fezzan in the south and Tripolitania in the west
  • The old divisions still matter
  • the marginalised Cyrenaicans harked back to the time when their king split his time between the courts of Tobruk and Beida and when Arabs from the Bedouin tribes of the Green Mountains ran his army
  • Tensions between those tribes and Islamist militias ran high from the start.
  • July 2011 jihadists keen to settle scores with officers who had crushed their revolt in the late 1990s killed the NTC’s commander-in-chief, Abdel Fattah Younis, who came from a powerful Arab tribe in the Green Mountains. In June 2013 the Transitional Council of Barqa (the Arab name for Cyrenaica), a body primarily comprised of Arab tribes, declared the east a separate federal region, and soon after allied tribal militias around the Gulf of Sirte took control of the oilfields.
  • In the west, indigenous Berbers, who make up about a tenth of the population, formed a council of their own and called on larger Berber communities in the Maghreb and Europe for support
  • Port cities started to claim self-government and set up their own border controls.
  • Derna—a small port in the east famed for having sent more jihadists per person to fight in Iraq than anywhere else in the world
  • opposed NATO intervention and insisted that the NTC was a pagan (wadani) not national (watani) council
  • Some in Derna have now declared their allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the caliph of the so-called Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq.
  • In December the head of America’s Africa command told reporters that IS was training some 200 fighters in the town.
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