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micklethwait

Africa's hopeful economies: The sun shines bright | The Economist - 0 views

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    From Dec. 3, 2011, as the Tunisian revolution is unfolding. I notice the comparative growth numbers: Libya is exploding at more than 10 percent annual growth (twice the rate of the US), while the band of central African nations see economic growth rates that are no doubt smaller than their population growth rates.
kbrisba

New Tunisian PM promises growth, reform and new hope - 0 views

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    Prime Minister Habib Essid of Tunisian promised to stimulate growth. Tunisians are worried about other issues; public spending, including cutting subsidies on basic foods and fuel. Jobs, high living costs, and economic opportunities. The government sees economic growth increasing to 3 percent in 2015 from an estimated 2.5 percent in 2014.
allieggg

Islamists Aren't the Obstacle | Foreign Affairs - 0 views

  • A minority of the population -- 26 percent of Tunisians and 28 percent of Egyptians -- believes that Islam should play a large role in government.
  • Both secularists and Islamists associate democracy with economic prosperity
  • Islamist parties received considerable support in both countries' recent elections -- not only because there is a broad ideological affinity for Islamism among the population but also because of Islamist parties' effective campaigning.
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  • When asked about the most important feature of a democracy, 69 percent of Egyptians and 32 percent of Tunisians put providing people with basic necessities or narrowing the gap between rich and poor at the top of their lists.
  • On a related note, Islamist parties have shown a remarkable ability to maintain their base.
  • Tunisia has fared better than Egypt so far in the post-Arab Spring transition, with less violence, fewer demonstrations, and greater political stability. This is in part because challenges are easier to confront in a country of only 11 million, 98 percent of whom are Sunni Muslim, compared to the more diverse and populous Egypt. But Tunisia's success is primarily a result of its stronger institutions, which provide a conduit for political debate.
  • Many onlookers claim that Egypt's more tumultuous post-revolution trajectory is because of the country's legacy of religiosity and Islamism.
  • Egyptians, in fact, are no more religious than Tunisians.
  • Egypt's institutions are weak and have been routinely undermined by entrenched interests. The countries' different geopolitical situations play a role here. Tunisia's minimal strategic importance means that foreign countries have less reason to intervene. But Egypt's proximity to Israel and the Palestinian territories, its 1979 peace treaty with Israel, and its role as an intermediary between Israel and Hamas make its political developments important to Israel and the United States. Consequently, Egypt is vulnerable to foreign interference, particularly to attempts to prop up its military. Furthermore, beyond serving as a pillar to Egypt's authoritarian regimes, the Egyptian military has significant business interests and accounts for ten to 30 percent of Egypt's gross domestic product.
  • Egypt's judicial branch, which is also more powerful than Tunisia's, has at times undermined democratic processes.
  • Egyptian Supreme Constitutional Court ruled that the Islamist-dominated parliament and the Constituent Assembly it elected were unconstitutional, because Islamist parties contested seats intended for independent candidates. The move polarized the country and pushed the executive branch to take extreme measures.
  • Egyptian democracy is undermined by the inability of institutions to address citizens' demands and the impulse of powerful actors to interfere, not by the divide between Islamists and secularists. Institutions in Egypt fail to provide a meaningful forum for debate. As a result, violent street protesters and extremist sheiks are gaining power.
  • U.S. policy must support institutions rather than actors, and processes rather than outcomes, in order to help Egypt and Tunisia achieve their democratic potential.
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    The Council on Foreign Relations published an article about democratization in the middle east and the major obstacles that are present in the process. While most assume Islamists and Islamic embedded institutions are the root of the delayed democratic transition, the problems are much bigger than that. While Islamist regimes do indeed stunt the growth of democratic progress in terms of creating a stable government, Arab countries struggle with economic and social factors as well. The Arab Spring Revolutions have caused economic and social degradation across the region, resulting in a road block of political leadership. Without a reliable and capable government structure, the states are unable to progress economically. However, in order to have a stable government, social and economic institutions must be in place to create this capitalist economy that they strive for. Because most wealth resides in oil, the revenue that the states bring in isn't distributed properly throughout society and is concentrated within few business elites. The article stresses that instead of foreign aid going into the hands of an unstable leader or regime, it should be invested in institutions in order to spur economic growth and eliminate corruption. Rather than focusing on the Islamist-secularist divide, the world should be working towards the strengthening of institutions to create a stable foundation for governance. 
kbrisba

Tunisia cuts 2012 growth forecast to 3.5 pct - Daily News Egypt - 0 views

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    Tunisia cut its economic growth forecast for this year to 3.5 percent, down from a previous forecast of 4.5 percent due to declines in foreign investment and tourism. Tunisia's government said in December the economy would grow 4.5 percent in 2012, but ongoing strikes have put off foreign investment, forcing it to cut its forecast. In 2011 the leaving of Zine Al-Abidine Ben Ali sparked the "Arab Spring". This caused revolts, which shrank the economy to 1.8 percent in 2011. The supplementary budget also increased in spending of 1 billion dinars.
wmulnea

BBC News - Falling oil prices: Who are the winners and losers? - 0 views

  • The reasons for this change are twofold - weak demand in many countries due to insipid economic growth, coupled with surging US production. Added to this is the fact that the oil cartel Opec is determined not to cut production as a way to prop up prices.
  • Russia loses about $2bn in revenues for every dollar fall in the oil price,
  • Russia has confirmed it will not cut production to shore up oil prices.
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  • Venezuela is one of the world's largest oil exporters, but thanks to economic mismanagement it was already finding it difficult to pay its way even before the oil price started falling.
  • Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter and Opec's most influential member, could support global oil prices by cutting back its own production, but there is little sign it wants to do this.
  • There could be two reasons - to try to instil some discipline among fellow Opec oil producers, and perhaps to put the US's burgeoning shale oil and gas industry under pressure.
  • Saudi Arabia needs oil prices to be around $85 in the longer term, it has deep pockets with a reserve fund of some $700bn - so can withstand lower prices for some time.
  • were to force some higher cost producers
  • In the 1980s the country did cut production significantly in a bid to boost prices, but it had little effect and it also badly affected the Saudi economy.
  • Saudi Arabia, Gulf producers such as the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have also amassed considerable foreign currency reserves, which means that they could run deficits for several years if necessary.
  • Islamic State, capturing oil wells. It is estimated it is making about $3m a day through black market sales - and undercutting market prices by selling at a significant discount - around $30-60 a barrel.
  • "The growth of oil production in North America, particularly in the US, has been staggering," says Columbia University's Jason Bordoff.
  • It has been this growth in US energy production, where gas and oil is extracted from shale formations using hydraulic fracturing or fracking, that has been one of the main drivers of lower oil prices.
  • "Shale has essentially severed the linkage between geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, and oil price and equities," says Seth Kleinman, head of energy strategy at Citi.
  • With Europe's flagging economies characterised by low inflation and weak growth, any benefits of lower prices would be welcomed by beleaguered governments. A 10% fall in oil prices should lead to a 0.1% increase in economic output, say some. In general consumers benefit through lower energy prices, but eventually low oil prices do erode the conditions that brought them about.
kbrisba

Public Information Notice: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2012 Article IV Consultation w... - 0 views

shared by kbrisba on 20 Feb 15 - No Cached
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    In 2012 there were signs of rebound from the recession in 2011. The GDP increased by 4.8 percent, tourism and FDI started picking up in the first quarter. Exporting for Tunisia would not be as strong because of the recession in Europe. Achieving higher growth will reduce high unemployment. Directors saw a need to support economic activity while safeguarding macroeconomic stability. Directors considered that structural reforms are needed to reorient the Tunisian economy and harness its potential for higher and more inclusive growth.
aavenda2

Saudi oil minister adviser: annual oil demand seen growing up to 1 mln bpd - 0 views

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    Saudi Arabia's oil minister claims expected annual growth by up to 1 million barrels per day
micklethwait

Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse | Cathy Alexander... - 0 views

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    Is the "Arab Spring" perhaps actually the early stages of such a collapse or the beginning of a shift toward a more sustainable future?
taylordillingham

untitled - 0 views

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    The Tunisian Prime Minister has promised a lot of economic growth and progress for the country.
mcooka

News & Broadcast - Education: Improving access and quality of education in Yemen - 0 views

  • For almost three decades, the International Development Association (IDA) has actively helped increase access to, and the quality of, educational services in Yemen. The main achievements are the expansion of the education system at all levels, which helped halve the illiteracy rate to 45 percent from 90 percent
  • This is particularly challenging given the country’s significant population growth and deep poverty
  • Fewer girls than boys enrol in school (particularly in rural areas), many tend to be over-age and most drop out before completing basic education.
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  • lack of female teachers is one of the factors resulting in low enrolment and retention of girls in schools, particularly in higher grades when parents tend to object to male teachers
  • The sector also suffers from a lack of efficiency and effectiveness in using limited financial resources and weak management capacity.
  • DA has provided assistance for development of all education system sub-sector
  • both building on the success of the Basic Education Expansion Project of 2001-2007
  • The Secondary Education Development and Girls Access Project provides a platform to address broader sector governance and management issues by bringing together the Ministries of Planning, Finance, Civil Service and Insurance and Local Officials to jointly sign a Protocol of Participation in this Project.
  • men is also part of the Education For All Fast Track Initiative (EFA-FTI). FTI focuses on increasing access of children to primary education in line with the MDG target of achieving universal primary education, and its interventions target the most remote areas in the country where no other IDA project, government intervention or donor project has gone before
  • Increase in enrolment in primary education to 87 percent in 2008-09 from 68 percent in 1998-99.Gains in girls’ enrolment were even higher with an increase to 78% in 2008-09 from 49% in 1998-99, reducing by half the gap with male enrolment
  • The Education sector in Yemen is one of oldest and largest sectors of IDA investment in Yemen.
  • otal Bank financing for the five projects amounts to US$133 million, comprising Basic Education Development Project (US$68.66 million), Secondary Education Development and Girls Access project (US$20 million), Fast Track Initiative – Phase III (US$20 million), Second Vocational Training Project (US$ 15 million), and Second Higher Education Project (US$13 million).
  • he basic education sector in Yemen is characterized by a high degree of donor harmonization. Education receives a large share of the comparatively small amount of Official Development Assistance per capita recipient (just US$13 in 2006).
  • The Yemen Country Status Report set the stage for the development of a national vision for education. The national vision is to be developed in coordination with line ministries and aims to develop the foundations for a national education system that is linked to the labor market
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    This article is about the improvement of education in Yemen. Yemen is a very poor country with a large population growth. These programs have created platforms and finances to attract teachers, advocates for girls groups, advocates for education, and have pushed the literacy rate up towards 90%
mportie

Document Reveals Growth of Cyberwarfare Between the U.S. and Iran - 1 views

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    Disclosed documents provide details of a veiled cyber scene in which governments are the major players. It notes that the start of Iran's cyber warfare was kicked off by the US under the Bush administration who initiated cyber attacks on Iran to prevent Iran's attempts at nuclear programs.
kevinobkirchner

Egypt: Al-Sisi Ascendant | The Economist - 0 views

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    General Al-Sisi, who took over Egypt after a coup against the Muslim Brotherhood is set to address the UN General Assembly on September 25th. His first 100 days in office has seen economic growth and increasing political stability. His government has increased fuel prices to curb the deficit and set out on a project to double the capacity of the Suez canal. With rising turmoil in the Middle East, Egypt has made its return as a moderating force. However the general's reliance on heavy-handed police forces to quell uprising and the continued holding of political prisoners continues to draw ire. To counter this he has released high profile prisoners and may revisit the anti-protest law.
wmulnea

Exxon Chief Expects Oil Prices to Stay Low for 2 Years - NYTimes.com - 0 views

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    Rex T. Tillerson, chief of Exxon Mobil predicts that due to slow global economic growth and higher than normal oil production, oil prices will remain low for the next two years.
kbrisba

The Arab Spring's success story: what will it take for Tunisia to unlock its full ... - 0 views

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    Tunisia kicked off investor meetings for a Eurobond without US guarantees. Tunisia's stock market has already shown political stability. Tunis index rose more than 16 percent in 2014 and trades 10 percent below record highs hit before the Arab Spring. Tunisia has potential to reform but it is in need of foreign direct investment to drive economic growth and job creation. Tunisia signed a two year deal with the international Monetary Fund in 2013, agreeing to follow certain economic policies; keeping its deficit under control, making the foreign exchange market more flexible and structural reforms.
kbrisba

Post-Revolutionary Tunisia in Economic Recession | Tunisialive - 0 views

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    In 2011 Tunisia experienced two quarters of decline in GDP. The size of the Tunisian economy decreased. Before 2011 the average growth of the Tunisian economy was between 4% to 5% per year. Immediate initiatives need to take place. An example of one would be banning strikes until the end of 2011, that would help reassure companies that are the main source of wealth and jobs creation.
kbrisba

Tunisia Museum Attack: Tourism, Economy will take a hit nationally regionally, Experts say - 0 views

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    In 2011 the number of tourists dropped by a third, by 2013 Tunisia was showing signs of a comeback, with income from tourism. The total contribution of the industry to Tunisia's economy was 15.2 percent of its gross domestic product. With the attack on the museum it was a major setback to the growth and promise of tourism and not just in Tunisia.
kbrisba

As the Middle East's newest democracy, Tunisia can take economic lessons from Turkey | ... - 0 views

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    Fours years after the Arab Spring, Tunisia is arguably the region's strongest democratic success story. Economic growth is still slow to develop, recognizing this lag, Tunisia has announced it will launch an emergency economic plan. Tunisia is moving in the right direction but for a long-term guide they should look to their neighboring democracy, Turkey. There is two lessons Tunisia should take away from Turkey: integration into the global economy and inclusion of the rich and poor.
aavenda2

​Saudi Arabia eyes boosting oil supplies to China - RT Business - 0 views

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    Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco, aims to increase supplies to China. It sees big opportunities in Beijing's efforts to restructure the country's economic growth model and believes supplies could double at some point.
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