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"Science 25 November 2011: Vol. 334 no. 6059 p. 1040 DOI: 10.1126/science.334.6059.1040 * News & Analysis Climate Change Humans Are Driving Extreme Weather; Time to Prepare 1. Richard A. Kerr Figure View larger version: * In this page * In a new window Thai floods 2011 Hurricane Katrina 2005 Texas drought 2011 "CREDITS (LEFT TO RIGHT): PAULA BRONSTEIN/GETTY IMAGES; JEFF SCHMALTZ, MODIS RAPID RESPONSE TEAM, NASA/GSFC; NOAA" An international scientific assessment finds for the first time that human activity has indeed driven not just global warming but also increases in some extreme weather and climate events around the world in recent decades. And those and likely other weather extremes will worsen in coming decades as greenhouse gases mount, the report finds. But uncertainties are rife in the still-emerging field of extreme events. Scientists cannot attribute a particular drought or flood to global warming, and they can say little about past or future trends in the risk of high-profile hazards such as tropical cyclones. Damage from weather disasters has been climbing, but the report can attribute that trend only to the increasing exposure of life and property to weather risks. Climate change may be involved, but a case cannot yet be made. Despite the uncertainties, the special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released 18 November stresses that there is still reason for taking action now. The panel recommends "low-regrets measures," such as improvements in everything from drainage systems to early warning systems. Such measures would benefit society in dealing with the current climate as well as with almost any range of possible future climates. The report takes a cautious, consensus-based approach that draws on the published literature. Headlines and even some scientists may point to the current Texas drought or the 2003 European heat wave as the result of the strengthening greenhouse. But the report fin

"Slowing climate change requires overcoming inertia in political, technological, and geophysical systems. Of these, only geophysical warming commitment has been quantified. We estimated the commitment to future emissions and warming represented by existing carbon dioxide-emitting devices. We calculated cumulative future emissions of 496 (282 to 701 in lower- and upper-bounding scenarios) gigatonnes of CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels by existing infrastructure between 2010 and 2060, forcing mean warming of 1.3°C (1.1° to 1.4°C) above the pre-industrial era and atmospheric concentrations of CO2 less than 430 parts per million. Because these conditions would likely avoid many key impacts of climate change, we conclude that sources of the most threatening emissions have yet to be built. However, CO2-emitting infrastructure will expand unless extraordinary efforts are undertaken to develop alternatives. "

"The theme of the 175th Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), "Our Planet and Its Life, Origins, and Futures," celebrated an enormous breadth of scientific accomplishments that transcends many subdisciplines of the natural and social sciences. It was intended to be both a reflection on what has been learned and a look forward to what must yet be better known if we are to make wise choices as stewards of our planet. The program committee saw this as an opportunity to examine how we have come to know and understand the coevolution of life with its interacting biological, biogeochemical, and physical environments. Further advances in this area are essential to develop scenarios that can be useful in guiding decisions to address some of society's most pressing problems. We must work toward a future that embraces the wise application of science to improve human health and well-being and to sustain the great diversity of life on our planet. "

"Science 25 November 2011: Vol. 334 no. 6059 pp. 1052-1053 DOI: 10.1126/science.334.6059.1052 * News Focus Adaptation to Climate Change Adaptation to Climate Change Time to Adapt to a Warming World, But Where's the Science? 1. Richard A. Kerr With dangerous global warming seemingly inevitable, users of climate information-from water utilities to international aid workers-are turning to climate scientists for guidance. But usable knowledge is in short supply. Figure View larger version: * In this page * In a new window Adapt to that. Climate will change, but decision-makers want to know how, where, and when. "CREDIT: KOOS VAN DER LENDE/NEWSCOM" DENVER, COLORADO-The people who brought us the bad news about climate change are making an effort to help us figure out what to do about it. As climate scientists have shown, continuing to spew greenhouse gases into the atmosphere will surely bring sweeping changes to the world-changes that humans will find it difficult or impossible to adapt to. But beyond general warnings, there is another sort of vital climate research to be done, speakers told 1800 attendees at a meeting here last month. And so far, they warned, researchers have delivered precious little of the essential new science. At the meeting, subtitled "Climate Research in Service to Society,"* the new buzzword was "actionable": actionable science, actionable information, actionable knowledge. "There's an urgent need for actionable climate information based on sound science," said Ghassem Asrar, director of the World Climate Research Programme, the meeting's organizer based in Geneva, Switzerland. What's needed is not simply data but processed information that an engineer sizing a storm-water pipe to serve for the next 50 years or a farmer in Uganda considering irrigating his fields can use to make better decisions in a warming world. Researchers preparing for the next international climate assessment, due in 2013, delive

"USC researcher experiments with changing ocean chemistry Jan. 19, 2011 | Molly Peterson | KPCC In his lab, USC's Dave Hutchins is simulating possible future atmospheres and temperatures for the Earth. He says he's trying to figure out how tiny organisms that form the base of the food web will react to a more carbon-intense ocean. Burning fossil fuels doesn't just put more carbon into the atmosphere and help warm the climate. It's also changing the chemistry of sea water. KPCC's Molly Peterson visits a University of Southern California researcher who studies the consequences of a more corrosive ocean. Tailpipes and refineries and smokestacks as far as the eye can see in Los Angeles symbolize the way people change the planet's climate. They remind Dave Hutchins that the ocean's changing too. Hutchins teaches marine biology at USC. He says about a third of all the carbon, or CO2, that people have pushed into earth's atmosphere ends up in sea water - "which is a good thing for us because if the ocean hadn't taken up that CO2 the greenhouse effect would be far more advanced than it is." He smiles. Hutchins says that carbon is probably not so good for the ocean. "The more carbon dioxide that enters the ocean the more acidic the ocean gets." On the pH scale, smaller numbers represent more acidity. The Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute estimates we've pumped 500 million tons of carbon into the world's oceans. Dave Hutchins at USC says that carbon has already lowered the pH value for sea water. "By the end of this century we are going to have increased the amount of acid in the ocean by maybe 200 percent over natural pre-industrial levels," he says. "So we are driving the chemistry of the ocean into new territory - into areas that it has never seen." Hutchins is one of dozens of scientists who study the ripples of that new chemistry into the marine ecosystem. Now for an aside. I make bubbly water at home with a soda machine, and to do that, I pump ca

Science 8 July 2011: Vol. 333 no. 6039 pp. 173-175 Galaxy Zoo Volunteers Share Pain and Glory of Research 1. Daniel Clery A project to "crowdsource" galactic classifications has paid off in ways the astronomers who started it never expected. Figure View larger version: * In this page * In a new window Space oddity. Greenish "voorwerp" spotted by a Dutch volunteer still intrigues scientists. "CREDIT: NASA, ESA, W. KEEL (UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA), AND THE GALAXY ZOO TEAM" The automated surveys that are becoming increasingly common in astronomy are producing an embarrassment of riches for researchers. Projects such as the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) are generating so much data that, in some cases, astronomers don't know what to do with them all. SDSS has compiled a list of more than 1 million galaxies. To glean information about galaxy evolution, however, astronomers need to know what type of galaxy each one is: spiral, barred spiral, elliptical, or something else. At present, the only reliable way to classify galaxies is to look at each one. But the SDSS list is so long that all the world's astronomers working together couldn't muster enough eyeballs for the task. Enter the "wisdom of crowds." An online effort called Galaxy Zoo, launched in 2007, set a standard for citizen-scientist participation projects. Zealous volunteers astonished the project's organizers by classifying the entire catalog years ahead of schedule. The results have brought real statistical rigor to a field used to samples too small to support firm conclusions. But that's not all. Buoyed by the curiosity and dedication of the volunteers, the Galaxy Zoo team went on to ask more-complicated classification questions that led to studies they hadn't thought possible. And in an online discussion forum on the Galaxy Zoo Web site, volunteers have pointed to anomalies that on closer inspection have turned out to be genuinely new astronomical objects. "I'm incredibly impres

Climate Change Action Projects Facing the Future has released the Climate Change Action Project Database, a resource with ready-to-use service-learning projects that prepare students to understand and take action on climate change.

During this week of action, OCEAN2012 member groups are inviting EU citizens to witness the impact overfishing has had on the marine environment and learn how the EU's CFP reform is an opportunity to go back to the future.

Warming and Melting Mass loss from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica account for a large fraction of global sea-level rise. Part of this loss is because of the effects of warmer air temperatures, and another because of the rising ocean temperatures to which they are being exposed. Joughin et al. (p. 1172) review how ocean-ice interactions are impacting ice sheets and discuss the possible ways that exposure of floating ice shelves and grounded ice margins are subject to the influences of warming ocean currents. Estimates of the mass balance of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have differed greatly-in some cases, not even agreeing about whether there is a net loss or a net gain-making it more difficult to project accurately future sea-level change. Shepherd et al. (p. 1183) combined data sets produced by satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry to construct a more robust ice-sheet mass balance for the period between 1992 and 2011. All major regions of the two ice sheets appear to be losing mass, except for East Antarctica. All told, mass loss from the polar ice sheets is contributing about 0.6 millimeters per year (roughly 20% of the total) to the current rate of global sea-level rise.

Winds of Change Jane Qiu Antarctica does not respond to global warming uniformly like a giant ice cube. Changing wind patterns are an unsung force shaping Antarctica's future. Retreating sea ice and stronger winds have caused seawater to mix more deeply, a process that churns sunlight-dependent phytoplankton into the ocean's depths. As a result, phytoplankton biomass has declined by 12% over the past 30 years. Higher on the food chain, that means fewer krill and fish larvae. These creatures are also getting hammered by the loss of sea ice, which hides them from predators. The complex interplay between air, sea, and ice has emerged as a central theme underlying climate change in Antarctica. Shifting wind patterns and corresponding ocean changes can explain climate responses across the continent.

"and a controversial bill prescribing how North Carolina can forecast future sea level rise for planning became law. "

perspective "The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change. "

"Our experience highlights that virtually all of scientists' deliberative communications, including e-mails and attached documents, can be subject to legal proceedings without limitation. Incomplete thoughts and half-finished documents attached to e-mails can be taken out of context and impugned by people who have a motive for discrediting the findings In addition to obscuring true scientific findings, this situation casts a chill over the scientific process. In future crises, scientists may censor or avoid deliberations, and more importantly, be reluctant to volunteer valuable expertise and technology that emergency responders don't possess. Open, scientific deliberation is critical to science. It needs to be protected in a way that maintains transparency in the scientific process, but also avoids unnecessary intrusions that stifle research vital to national security and economic interests."

The Ocean Project conducts market research, with funding provided by NOAA and in collaboration with the Monterey Bay Aquarium and National Aquarium in Baltimore. Our national research from 2008 provides a comprehensive metric for future evaluations, and we are conducting semi-annual tracking surveys to measure changes and test messages on climate, ocean, and related environmental issues.