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Science 25 November 2011: Vol. 334 no. 6059 p. 1039 DOI: 10.1126/science.334.6059.1039-b * News of the Week Random Sample Mongolia's 'Ice Shield' Figure View larger version: * In this page * In a new window Hot zone. Flanked by desert, Ulan Bator will be cooled in summer by an "ice shield." "CREDIT: BRÜCKE-OSTEUROPA/WIKIPEDIA" As the coldest capital on Earth, you might think the last thing Ulan Bator needs is more ice. But that is just what it's about to get under a geoengineering trial aimed at "storing" freezing winter temperatures to cool and water the city during the summer. At the end of this month, engineers will drill a series of bores through the ice on the Tuul River, pump up water from below, and spray it on the surface where it will freeze. This process will be repeated throughout the winter, adding layer after layer to create a chunk of ice that will be 7 or 8 meters thick by the spring. It's an attempt to artificially create the ultra-thick slabs-known as naleds in Russian-that occur naturally in far northern climes when rivers or springs push through surface cracks. Nomads have long made their summer camps near such phenomena, which melt much later than normal ice. Flanked by desert and plagued by summer temperatures that can rise close to 40°C, Ulan Bator's municipal government hopes the $724,000 experiment will create a cool microclimate and provide fresh water as the naled melts. ECOS & EMI, the Anglo-Mongolian company behind the plan, has still greater ambitions. "Everyone is panicking about melting glaciers and icecaps, but nobody has yet found a cheap, environmentally friendly alternative," says Robin Grayson, a geologist in Ulan Bator for ECOS & EMI. "If you know how to manipulate them, naled ice shields can repair permafrost and build cool parks in cities." The process, Grayson says, can be replicated anywhere where winter temperatures fall below −5°C for at least a couple of months.

"Slowing climate change requires overcoming inertia in political, technological, and geophysical systems. Of these, only geophysical warming commitment has been quantified. We estimated the commitment to future emissions and warming represented by existing carbon dioxide-emitting devices. We calculated cumulative future emissions of 496 (282 to 701 in lower- and upper-bounding scenarios) gigatonnes of CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels by existing infrastructure between 2010 and 2060, forcing mean warming of 1.3°C (1.1° to 1.4°C) above the pre-industrial era and atmospheric concentrations of CO2 less than 430 parts per million. Because these conditions would likely avoid many key impacts of climate change, we conclude that sources of the most threatening emissions have yet to be built. However, CO2-emitting infrastructure will expand unless extraordinary efforts are undertaken to develop alternatives. "