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Chen Lin

The unemployment rate falls slightly in America - 0 views

  • Some 11,000 jobs were lost in November, the smallest total since the recession began late in 2007. And despite the continued job losses, the overall unemployment rate fell from 10.2% to 10.0%.
  • None of this means that the troubles are all over, however. The unemployment rate had once before declined in 2009, from June to July, before proceeding to rise for the next three months. A steady decline now will be hard to achieve: one estimate suggests that the American economy needs to add around 150,000 jobs each month just to keep up with population growth.
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    The unemployment rate falls slightly in America
Chen Lin

Unemployment claims drop to lowest level in more than a year / The Christian Science Mo... - 0 views

  • A closely watched barometer of America’s job market – the number of weekly unemployment claims – fell to its lowest level since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, whose failure deepened the financial crisis more than a year ago. New jobless claims declined to 432,000, the Labor Department said. The news was better than economists had predicted, and confirms a trend of improvement in recent weeks that suggests that recession-related job losses are winding down. But many forecasters still see weakness ahead for several months before the economy starts adding jobs. During good times, weekly jobless claims typically run at a pace of about 300,000. During the early part of this year, the initial-claims pace was running above 600,000.
Chen Lin

Poverty rate paradox: Poverty rises, but FBI crime rate falls - CSMonitor.com - 0 views

  • But so far, the numbers undermine the stark crime wave predictions. In fact, the plunge in the national crime rate has been most evident in areas the housing bust has hit the hardest. Even with California unemployment higher than 12 percent, car thefts declined in Los Angeles by 20 percent last year over 2008. Nationally, both violent crime and property crime declined by about 5 percent between 2008 and 2009 – the height of the recession, according to an FBI report issued Monday.
  • Government safety nets – including extension of unemployment benefits and a growth in food stamp recipients – may also have helped to keep despair down and crime rates low, criminologists suggest. At the same time, new policing tactics, including the "broken windows" theory, and booming prison populations – currently at 1.6 million, five times the number of people incarcerated in 1977 – have succeeded largely by targeting specific lawbreakers and high-crime locales instead of broader social injustices, some social critics say.
Jassmin Poyaoan

U.S. poverty rate hits 11-year high as recession bites | U.S. | Reuters - 0 views

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    census bureau statistics and predictions on poverty in the U.S. due to the recession. good ev for uniqueness and impact scenarios.
Chen Lin

Are Emerging Markets the Next Bubble? - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - 0 views

  • if large economies keep interest rates loose for too long, faster global growth could instead add fuel to the fire. Tighter monetary policy in the United States and the Euro area is still a way off, but may be edging closer.  The European Central Bank will conclude emergency lending in December. The rate on the final loans will be indexed to the ECB’s benchmark rate, rather than fixed at 1 percent, giving the Bank room to raise interest rates if needed. Unemployment, a key signal for central bankers considering raising rates, fell to 10 percent in the United States last week, but it is not yet clear if this improvement will persist.
    • Chen Lin
       
      Low interest rates in big economies will persist, meaning the bubble is inevitable.
  • These price surges could cause or temporarily conceal bad debts in a number of smaller economies, hurting investors who have turned to these markets. However, unless these surges continue, the risk to the global recovery will be contained. Dubai World’s recent near default illustrates the potential shocks that debt from bursting asset bubbles can cause. Similar problems could and probably will emerge in other economies which have been badly hit by the crisis, and where government finances are stretched, including Ireland, Greece, and the Baltics.
    • Chen Lin
       
      Impact -- asset bubbles misallocate wealth by hiding bad debt. When the froth is popped, we'll see repeats of what happened in Dubai across the developing world with impacts for the developed world as well.
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    You should never lose econ uniqueness with this card -- excellent warrants for why a bubble is forming in developing countries now because of loose monetary policies in countries like US and China. Collapse inevitable.
Chen Lin

What to Watch for in Copenhagen | Foreign Policy - 0 views

  • Obama recently pledged that the United States would reduce emissions about 17 percent by 2020 as compared with 2005 levels (though the Wall Street Journal is reporting that he might soon announce steeper cuts for 2050); his current pledge reflects numbers in bills now under review by Congress. The president probably can't offer much more without risking that any final treaty would later be rejected by Congress, similar to what happened when the U.S. Senate failed to ratify the Kyoto climate treaty in 1997.
  • Rather than absolute carbon cuts, some developing countries, including China and India, have declared goals of reducing the "carbon intensity" of their economies. In other words, they will use less carbon per unit of GDP growth, but as their overall economies grow, so too will carbon emissions, at least for the short term. China has pledged to reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by 40 to 45 percent. India has a target of 20 to 25 percent. The targets have been applauded by some as a step forward and pilloried by others as far too low.
  • The upshot: Nothing will happen unless there's money behind it, and for some countries, the financial pledge may be as politically difficult as the carbon-reduction pledge. (Sen. John Kerry has proposed that the United States pony up $2.5 billion to $3 billion, roughly equivalent to the annual budget of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.) With many industrialized countries stuck in recessions and struggling with high unemployment, short-term generosity will be difficult.
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    Why Copenhagen and other international agreements won't work.
Chen Lin

More guns equal more crime? Not in 2009, FBI crime report shows. / The Christian Scienc... - 0 views

  • After several years of crime rates holding relatively steady, the FBI is reporting that violent crimes – including gun crimes – dropped dramatically in the first six months of 2009, with murder down 10 percent across the US as a whole.
  • After several years of crime rates holding relatively steady, the FBI is reporting that violent crimes – including gun crimes – dropped dramatically in the first six months of 2009, with murder down 10 percent across the US as a whole. Concurrently, the FBI reports that gun sales – especially of assault-style rifles and handguns, two main targets of gun-control groups – are up at least 12 percent nationally since the election of President Obama, a dramatic run on guns prompted in part by so-far-unwarranted fears that Democrats in Congress and the White House will curtail gun rights and carve apart the Second Amendment.
  • The debate over whether guns spur or deter crime has been under way for decades. So far, research has come out with, in essence, a net-zero correlation between gun sales and crime rates. More likely factors for the crime rate decline have to do with Americans hunkering down, spending less time out on the town with cash in their pockets and more time at home with the porch lights on, experts say. So-called "smart policing" that focuses specifically on repeat offenders and troubled areas could also be playing a role, as could extended unemployment benefits that staved off desperation.
Chen Lin

Beyond Obama's B+: How Democrats can hold the House in 2010 / The Christian Science Mon... - 0 views

  • Whether Democrats can keep control of the House in the 2010 election hinges on three things: the direction of job growth, Democrats' ability to convince independent voters that the country’s finances are not out of control, and the direction of Barack Obama’s approval ratings.
  • Podesta argued that no one unemployment figure will be a “magic number” for Democrats' political success. Instead, if by the summer of 2010 the number of jobs in the economy is growing consistently, then Democrats in Congress can hold the loss of seats “to a relative minimum,” he said. One question, he added, is “do people smell we are on the right path or do they feel still bogged down?”
  • For Democrats to demonstrate that control, Podesta argued in favor of a timetable to put the federal budget back in balance. “Once the economy is fully recovered, deficit reduction will be critical to growth and broadly shared prosperity,” he said. The Center for American Progress proposes establishing a mechanism to ensure that government income and spending for all items -- except debt service -- move into balance by 2014. The next goal would be to have all government spending – including debt service – be covered by income in 2020.
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  • A potential decline in the president’s approval rating “will be the most critical factor in the congressional electoral success,” he said. If members of Congress “think they have a strategy to cut and run on him, it is highly unlikely to be successful.”
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    What it will take for dems to maintain majority in the house after midterm elections. Great politics links.
Chen Lin

Yemen's air strike on Al Qaeda may signal new US focus - 0 views

  • With an estimated presence of more than 1,000 Al Qaeda operatives, Yemen is steadily becoming more important in the war against terrorism. It is a large country on the Arabian Peninsula with some 22 million people with an unemployment rate of about 40 percent that is expected to double in the next few decades. The availability of water is dwindling, and the oil revenues upon which the country depends are quickly evaporating. By 2017, those revenues are expected to bottom out, according to a report published by BP and cited in a report by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), a think tank in Washington.
  • The US has spent about $70 million this year to support training and buy equipment for Yemen, compared with no funding last year, according to the Associated Press. Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on his military jet as he returned from Iraq and Afghanistan Sunday said he is comfortable with the level of support the US is currently providing.
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    "Yemen's air strike on Al Qaeda may signal new US focus"
Chen Lin

Report: Obama's stimulus plan is creating new jobs | csmonitor.com - 0 views

  • Federal stimulus programs are sustaining as many as 1.6 million jobs this year, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office says in a new report.
  • Congress’s economists say the number of jobs created could span anywhere from 600,000, at the lower end, to the 1.6 million high-end figure
  • Republicans say the stimulus is not living up to expectations, however, noting that the jobless rate today is higher than the White House or other forecasters expected in February when the ARRA was passed. They say Obama policies are destroying jobs rather than creating them, and adding to the national debt in the process.
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    Estimates for the number of jobs created by the stimulus either fall below expectations or are on par with them.
Chen Lin

Would a New Jobs Tax Credit Help? - 0 views

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    Jobs tax credit distorts the market. A payroll tax credit would be a better solution.
Chen Lin

Yemen's Problems Will Not Stay in Yemen - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - 0 views

  • Yemen has frequently been described as a failing state -- and with good reason. Civil war, terrorism, a deepening secessionist movement and economic and demographic trends threaten to overpower the Yemeni government, provide a breeding ground for terrorists and destabilize the region. Yemen has often teetered on the brink of collapse, but it has never faced so many interconnected challenges at one time.
  • At the heart of the country's problems is a looming economic crisis. Oil is the source of nearly 80 percent of government revenue, and it is quickly running out. There are few viable options for a sustainable post-oil economy, and Yemen is already the poorest country in the Arab world with an unemployment rate conservatively estimated at 35 percent. Yemen's pending economic collapse has been greatly accelerated by the civil war in Saada. Government forces have been unable to decisively put down the rebels in the north of the country, and there is no military solution to the conflict. The toll in Saada has been severe, with extensive damage to infrastructure and an estimated 175,000 internally displaced people. The conflict's strain on the Yemeni army has led to questions about the military's ability to simultaneously engage in other operations, including counterterrorism. The government is spending foreign currency reserves at an alarming rate, recently estimated at more than $200 million per month. Spending on the war will create a major budget deficit next year. Every dollar spent on the civil war is a dollar not spent on addressing the underlying causes of instability in Yemen. Yemen also is facing a growing secessionist movement in the south of the country. When the war in Saada subsides, it is feared that the secessionist movement will again flare up.  The government does not control the entire territory of Yemen, and the emergence of additional areas outside of the capital of Sanaa's control will create more under-governed spaces that can be exploited by terrorist movements.
  • Military operations to kill or capture al Qaeda operatives will likely increase in 2010. These actions carry risks. Publicly acknowledged American involvement in counterterrorism operations in Yemen would be deeply unpopular in the country, likely undermine the legitimacy of the Yemeni government and feed into the grievances that help fuel al Qaeda militancy. Development assistance is one of the most effective tools available to address the interconnected long-term challenges facing Yemen. But, U.S. aid is disproportionately small considering the magnitude of the problems facing the country and Yemen's strategic importance to the United States. In addition to the reported $70 million of military and security assistance, the United States recently announced $121 million in development aid over the next three years, a significant increase from previous years and a vital step in the right direction. Still, the amount pales in comparison to the $1.5 billion allotted to Pakistan in the next year alone. This disparity persists even as U.S. officials increasingly cite Yemen as a terrorism and security priority second only to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
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