Skip to main content

Home/ Groups/ Jacob Solomon's group - M2015(B)
Haydn W

Falling oil prices offer the west a great chance to refashion itself. Let's seize it | ... - 1 views

  • Falling oil prices offer the west a great chance to refashion itself. Let’s seize it
  • For the past 18 months, the world’s biggest oil producer has been the US.
  • One first good result of this oil price shift, however, was witnessed at Opec’s meeting in Vienna last week. The once feared cartel of oil-exporting countries, with Saudi Arabia at its core, a cartel that at one time commanded more than half of global production, is now a shadow of its former self.
  • ...9 more annotations...
  • the US will maintain this new standing for the foreseeable future, according to official projections.
  • It should be no surprise, then, that in the past rising oil prices were associated with recessions and falling oil prices with booms. If the oil price carries on falling back towards $50 a barrel, and if history is any guide, the western economy should respond – to the good.
  • But although particular companies may lose out, the first-round effect of this fall should provide good news. High oil prices depress economic activity. They suck money from consumer spending and redirect it to oil-exporting countries, which typically hoard it in elephantine foreign exchange reserves or unspent  bank deposits. It is a tax by the few on the many.
  • With the US needing to buy less oil on international markets and China’s growth sinking to its lowest mark for 40 years, there is now, amazingly, the prospect of an oil glut. The oil price instantly nosedived to its lowest level for four years, around $70 a barrel – down more than a third in three months.
  • Suddenly, the balance of economic advantage with Russia, no less dependent on oil and gas exports, will flip. Russia’s 2014 budget was based on an oil price of $100 a barrel. At $70 a barrel, the economy will contract by at least 3% in 2015, the country will run a balance of payments deficit and the government’s finances will spin out of control.
  • The chances of Russia sustaining a surrogate war in Ukraine have suddenly been reduced. All good news.
  • But western governments cannot hope that economic benefits will arrive automatically. These are new times.
  • Uncertainty and fear abound. Interest rates in Britain alone have been pegged at 0.5% for more than five years. But still business is reluctant to invest, not knowing what technologies to back or not knowing how much demand there will be for new products and services. We live in an era of stagnation, “secular stagnation”
  • So falling oil prices offer the world economy a great opportunity. But if it is not leapt upon purposefully by aggressively expansionary economic policy, secular stagnation might worsen.
  •  
    The recent fall in oil prices, largely due to America's newfound dominance in the market, will cause Russia to experience a balance of payments deficit, according to this article from the Guardian. This is based on Russia's overestimate of the forecast for the global oil price and can be said to be an example of how global prices often influence balance of payments for countries, especially when it concerns national resources.
Clemence Lafeuille

U.K. Balance of Payments Worsens - 0 views

  •  
    The article talks about how Britain is facing a deficit balance of payments. The state of the world's economy means that exports are not bringing in the country as much money as is needed, and British firms' earnings abroad are not a lot either. As a result, Britain is facing a problem, which can be solved by trying to incentivise exports (as the article discusses).
Daniel Soto Aggard

Does the UK have a £70bn deficit problem? - 2 views

  •  
    The UK is currently having an extreme deficit in their balance of payments. They have a £70 billion deficit in their current balance of payments. This has been strongly appearing since the beginning of the 2000s. Even now when they're in recovery their balance of payments is still very negative. The UK haven't had a surplus since 1997, this brings up the facts that the UK is the bigger country with a deficit in Europe.Although they're slowly increasing their trade this urges the matter of: how can the UK come out of this deficit in time before there are any severe consequences onto the population of the UK and the world?
Zube Iheobi

Banks brace for £3bn fine over foreign exchange rigging | The Times - 0 views

  •  
    foreign exchange rigging displays the vitalness and potential benefits that can com from aving a good value to your currency
Mariam P

Russians boost foreign-currency deposits in October -central bank data - 6 views

  •  
    Russians had 3.856 trillion roubles' ($82.27 billion) worth of foreign-currency deposits as of Nov. 1, compared to 3.421 trillion roubles on Oct. 1, an increase of more than 12 percent. Their rouble deposits fell by 0.3 percent to 13.829 trillion roubles over the same period, according to the central bank.
  •  
    The article presents an insight on what seems to be the most significant economic effect of the sanctions the EU has imposed on it in response to their invasion of the Ukraine.
Hyobin Lim

Russia's Currency Is Plummeting and Putin's Billionaires Are Cannibalizing Each Other - 2 views

  •  
    The article concerns over the depreciation of the Ruble over the recent months that have passed. It was predicted that the Ruble would reach approximately 32.86 Rubles to the US dollar. However last month (November 1st to be exact), the Ruble reached a staggering 43 rubles to one US dollar. Being a 30 percent increase before the predicted depreciation. It has depreciated so suddenly and so quickly that the value is being measured, monitored, and shown by the minute rather than the day. Thus creating panic.
  •  
    Despite the Russian Central Bank's spending of $40 billion over the last two months, the ruble has been significantly dropping for weeks. The price of 1 USD was 32.86 rubles in January, but is now 43 rubles, a drop of over 30%. Food prices in Russia have sky rocketed, dairy and meat costing over 10% more.
Pip Dop

Bitcoin Volatility Problem Solved? Bringing Block Chain Benefits to Traditional Fiat Cu... - 5 views

  •  
    This article is about one of the less mainstream currencies that exist: Bitcoin. This is an online currency that has genuine potential, but, as the article explains, one of the biggest obstacles to mainstream adoption for bitcoin is its price volatility. The unpredictable price volatility means that for the vast majority of people, the currency is impossible to use as it would be too risky. The payments that ARE made with Bitcoin are immediately converted into real currencies, defeating the point of Bitcoin.
  •  
    Great article. Really informative. I actually didn't know about the Bitcoin, but this is very insightful.
Marenne M

Nigeria devalues currency as oil prices drop - FT.com - 5 views

  • Nigeria has devalued its currency by nearly 10 per cent and raised interest rates to record levels, in one of the clearest signs yet of how oil producing nations are struggling as energy prices drop sharply.
  •  
    This article describes the devaluation of the fixed currency rate of Nigeria as a result of the decreased energy prices. Nigeria is an oil producing country and therefore earns a lot of its income through oil exports. Now that the prices of other energy has dropped, there is a lower demand for the Nigerian oil, leading to fewer exports. The Nigerian central bank has now devaluated its currency by 8.4 percent in the hope that the lower prices will encourage a greater demand for their oil exports.
Hardy Hewson

Exclusive: China ready to cut rates again on fears of deflation - sources - 6 views

  •  
    Credit: Reuters This article concerns the apparent policy decision facing China as to whether it should cut interest rates and loosen lending so as to decrease the deflation in Chinese growth. Historically China has artificially manufactured low exchange rates so as to benefit their exports to other countries. This new policy therefore represents a step away from this traditional approach.
Aleksi B

Toyota posts 23% jump in net income, helped by weak yen, cost cuts - 2 views

  •  
    This article shows that taking advantage of different currencies Toyota managed to increase their net profit
Amanda Anna G

Foreign exchange fines: banks handed £2.6bn in penalties for market rigging |... - 3 views

  • The corruption of the world’s biggest currency dealers was laid bare on Wednesday when regulators imposed £2.6bn of fines on six major banks for rigging the £3.5tn-a-day foreign exchange markets.
  • Two UK and US regulators said they had found a “free for all culture” rife on trading floors which allowed the markets to be rigged for five years, from January 2008 to October 2013.
  • The chancellor, George Osborne, said: “Today we take tough action to clean up corruption by a few so that we have a financial system that works for everyone. It’s part of a long-term plan that is fixing what went wrong in Britain’s banks and our economy.”
  •  
    Regulators have imposed fines on six major banks for rigging foreign exchange markets. George Osborne argues that action have been taken in order to clean up corruption so there will be a financial system that works for everyone. 
Yassine G

Islamic State Says It Plans to Issue Its Own Currency - NYTimes.com - 2 views

  •  
    This article talks about how a group of people is considering creating their own currency.This raises many questions as would it be acceptable and what s the outcome on the rest of the world's economy especially that gold is intend to be used. 
John B

No downward pressure on currency: banker - 3 views

  •  
    This article deals with the currency of Sri Lanka, the rupee. The traders say there is a downward pressure on the currency, while the government denies this.
Clemence Lafeuille

UK industry export orders hit euro headwinds - 3 views

  •  
    This article talks about the loss of faith there is in the Euro currently because of the conflict with Ukraine and Russia, and how that negatively impacts the UK because its main export zone is Europe. Also, it mentions that the pound is strong when maybe it would be better if the pound was weak, so that refers back to our debate of "Is it better to have a strong or weak currency?"
Haydn W

The return of the US dollar | Mohamed El-Erian | Business | theguardian.com - 4 views

  • The return of the US dollar The resurgence of the US currency could be the first promising step in steering the world economy away from crisis
  • The US dollar is on the move. In the last four months alone, it has soared by more than 7% compared with a basket of more than a dozen global currencies, and by even more against the euro and the Japanese yen.
  • Two major factors are currently working in the dollar’s favour
  • ...11 more annotations...
  • First, the United States is consistently outperforming Europe and Japan in terms of economic growth and dynamism – and will likely continue to do so – owing not only to its economic flexibility and entrepreneurial energy, but also to its more decisive policy action since the start of the global financial crisis.
  • Second, after a period of alignment, the monetary policies of these three large and systemically important economies are diverging, taking the world economy from a multi-speed trajectory to a multi-track one.
  • ECB President Mario Draghi signalled a willingness to expand his institution’s balance sheet by a massive €1 trillion ($1.25 trillion).
  • With higher US market interest rates attracting additional capital inflows and pushing the dollar even higher, the currency’s revaluation would appear to be just what the doctor ordered when it comes to catalysing a long-awaited global rebalancing – one that promotes stronger growth and mitigates deflation risk in Europe and Japan.
  • an appreciating dollar improves the price competitiveness of European and Japanese companies in the US and other markets
  • There is also the risk that, given the role of the ECB and the Bank of Japan in shaping their currencies’ performance, such a shift could be characterized as a “currency war” in the US Congress, prompting a retaliatory policy response.
  • Today, many of these countries have adopted more flexible exchange-rate regimes, and quite a few retain adequate reserve holdings.
  • Furthermore, sudden large currency moves tend to translate into financial-market instability.
  • But a new issue risks bringing about a similarly problematic outcome: By repeatedly repressing financial-market volatility over the last few years, central-bank policies have inadvertently encouraged excessive risk-taking, which has pushed many financial-asset prices higher than economic fundamentals warrant.
  • This is not to say that the currency re-alignment that is currently underway is necessarily a problematic development; on the contrary, it has the potential to boost the global economy by supporting the recovery of some of its most challenged components. But the only way to take advantage of the re-alignment’s benefits, without experiencing serious economic disruptions and financial-market volatility, is to introduce complementary growth-enhancing policy adjustments, such as accelerating structural reforms, balancing aggregate demand, and reducing or eliminating debt overhangs.
  • The US dollar’s resurgence, while promising, is only a first step. It is up to governments to ensure that the ongoing currency re-alignment supports a balanced, stable, and sustainable economic recovery. Otherwise, they may find themselves again in the unpleasant business of mitigating financial instability.
  •  
    This article details the so called resurgence of the US dollar, in terms of currency value. The currency itself has risen by around 7% against other currencies but Guardian economist Mohamed El-Erian warns that without the appropriate accompanying central bank policies, the rise of the dollar could cause further market volatility and at worst a new crash. El-Erian calls for governments to enact policy to support balance the current currency realignment. 
Hyobin Lim

Venezuela's New Exchange Rate System Is Paying Off - 2 views

  •  
    Venezuela is known to have a higher inflation than that of its trading partners. In the fall of 2012, Venezuela's inflation and the black market rate for the dollar both began to rise. However, the government announced a new system, SICAD II, on February 19 to break the cycle of inflation-depreciation. So far, the new system has tamed the black market. It is predicted that SICAD II will draw currency exchanges away from the black market, but it also stated that it will worsen the inflation problem.
Mariam P

November's Pound Euro Exchange Rate Forecasts for Period 2014-2015 - 1 views

  •  
    This article is a summery of GBP/EUR exchange rate forecasts issued by by Barclays, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and a Reuters Smart Estimate.
Pip Dop

Exchange Rates Week 42 - 1 views

  •  
    This article is about how some of the 6 largest banks have been fined £2.6 billion for manipulating exchange rates for a number of years. The case is a good indication of the importance of exchange rates and that well-known and supposedly well-respected banks are willing to take the risk of committing this crime.
« First ‹ Previous 41 - 60 of 347 Next › Last »
Showing 20 items per page