As a political move this would be a gamble whose costs can be easily foreseen. It would cast Trump as a martyr to the perfidious Republican establishment, and so struck down, he could potentially emerge more influential (with some of his supporters, at least) than before. Some of the scenarios I wrote about earlier this week, where the aftermath of the Jan. 6 riot actually breaks the G.O.P., could follow from Trump’s conviction by the Senate: A surge of grass-roots rage, a raft of Trumpist primary campaigns against reality-based Republicans, and eventually the nomination of Don Jr., and a real schism, in 2024.