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katherineharron

Election poll: Iowa poll is giving Trump backers hope and Democrats anxiety - CNNPolitics - 0 views

www.cnn.com/...index.html

election

shared by katherineharron on 02 Nov 20 - No Cached
  • A new Des Moines Register/Selzer and Co. poll from Iowa likely voters has President Donald Trump leading Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by a 48% to 41% margin.
  • Biden is the favorite in polling to take back the White House. He leads in the swing states necessary to get 270 electoral votes, and those leads are wider than the ones Hillary Clinton had four years ago.
  • The Selzer poll is an exception to that rule. If it is correct, Trump is in a far better position than assumed, and we could be in for a much closer race than many expect.
  • ...12 more annotations...
  • Few, if any, of Biden's pathways to 270 electoral votes run through Iowa. But if Biden isn't doing much better in Iowa than Clinton did four years ago, then Democrats might be worried that he isn't doing better in other places as well.
  • Selzer has been wrong before. Pollsters aren't magicians. It's the sign of a good pollster that they are willing to publish polls that don't look like other ones.
  • The reason why the Selzer poll gives Democrats chills and Republicans hope is the history of the Selzer poll. Four years ago, the final Selzer poll had Trump up by an identical 7 points in Iowa. Trump won by 9 points.
  • Moreover, the 2016 example is not the only time in which Selzer was unafraid to publish a seeming outlier that proved to be correct. (The 2008 Democratic Iowa caucuses were another example.)
  • the average poll in Iowa paints the picture of a race that is too close to call.
  • Speaking of outliers, an ABC News/Washington Post poll in Wisconsin published in the last week had Biden ahead by 17 points
  • There isn't a galaxy in this universe where Biden is up by 17 points in Wisconsin and down by 7 points in Iowa.
  • Biden's lead is larger in pretty much all the states that matter. The congressional district level presidential polling, which was a warning sign for Democrats in 2016, is much better for them this time.
  • Last time around, it was actually that national polling that led me to believe that Trump was just "a normal polling error" away from winning. It ended up being just 1 or 2 points off the mark (i.e. very accurate).
  • This year Biden's margin is about 5 to 6 points larger than Clinton's was in the closing days nationally.
  • When you dig into the national polls, you see more reasons to believe Selzer is off. Iowa is a state with a lot of Whites without a college degree.
  • Another "if" is if Trump ends up pulling off a bigger shocker than in 2016, the Selzer poll will have been our best clue.
brickol

Klobuchar gains momentum in Iowa - but can a centrist hope to win there? | US news | Th... - 0 views

www.theguardian.com/...r-iowa-democrats-2020-election

politics US election culture

shared by brickol on 04 Jan 20 - No Cached
  • The Minnesota senator is reaching out to Iowa’s smallest towns and rural settlements ahead of the vital February caucus and seeing increasing numbers
  • Hiller, whose state is the vital first one to cast ballots in the party’s nomination race to pick an opponent to Donald Trump, was impressed by the Minnesota senator, a fellow midwesterner who desperately needs a strong showing in Iowa to boost her 2020 presidential campaign.
  • That sort of reaction is music to Klobuchar’s ears as she carried out a gruelling tour through 27 counties in rural Iowa in an attempt to build a groundswell of support through reaching out to the state’s smallest towns and rural settlements. With this strategy, even a couple dozen attendees counts as a success.
  • ...14 more annotations...
  • Two dozen others had turned out to see the Minnesota senator in tiny Ida Grove that same day, a county that doesn’t even have 1,000 registered Democrats. But most striking to Klobuchar was a crowd of around 50 packing the Sac County Cattle Company on a Sunday night just before Christmas.
  • Klobuchar is blunt about her shared background with Iowa’s voters. She brags about being from the midwest, and how she can win in rural Minnesota counties that Trump took by 20 points.
  • Klobuchar said those gatherings are a sign of what to expect on Iowa’s caucus day on 3 February. Klobuchar sits at about 6% support among probable Iowa caucusgoers, according to the most recent Des Moines Register Iowa poll in October, but a strong debate showing in Los Angeles brought her notice
  • A crowd that size in Sac City, anywhere in rural America, means something
  • The proprietor said Klobuchar’s crowds were at least the size of King’s, or any other Republican who has come calling.
  • Her entire argument is built around electability in midwest swing states such as Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan and Ohio
  • “He’s treating farmers like poker chips in one of his bankrupt casinos,” she said to the delight of her audience at one stop
  • The question is whether her momentum, which is mainly confined to Iowa, is too little too late. In less than six weeks, caucusgoers will trudge through a frigid night to precinct meetings in schoolhouses and courthouses – while she may be chained to Trump’s impeachment trial in the US Senate, which is set to start sometime in January and last for an unknown time.
  • “In an ironic way, her stardom in the Senate will hurt her campaigning in Iowa, where she desperately needs to do well.”
  • Klobuchar says a doubling of office spaces in Iowa and positive responses in Des Moines Register/CNN Iowa polls are signs of hope. Best says her strongest advantage is that overwhelming majorities of probable caucusgoers have favorable opinions of her and list her in their top three selections.
  • She says people there have a thirst for economic prosperity that can be achieved realistically, not with promises like Medicare for All. She never mentions challengers from the progressive wing by name. “We can win them back telling the truth. We can bring those people back.”
  • voters in rural areas like Sac City and Rockwell City are easier to organize than in Democratic metro strongholds such as Des Moines or Iowa City. Those who show up in Rockwell City are reliably Democratic and less issue-focused. Rarely do they see a candidate with Klobuchar’s resume. When they do, they leave with a strong impression.
  • “It’s a lot easier to get viability in Sac county than Polk county,” said Scholten. “She recognizes that people are familiar with her. Sac City isn’t a long way from the Iowa-Minnesota border.”
  • Those who hear Klobuchar’s message like her focus on the midwest.
jlessner

Why a 'Virtual Tie' in Iowa Is Better for Clinton Than Sanders - The New York Times - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...owa-helps-hillary-clinton.html

iowa clinton sanders politics history US culture policy

shared by jlessner on 02 Feb 16 - No Cached
  • The Iowa Democratic caucuses were a “virtual tie,” especially after you consider that the results aren’t even actual vote tallies, but state delegate equivalents subject to all kinds of messy rounding rules and potential geographic biases.
  • he official tally, for now, is Hillary Clinton at 49.9 percent, and Mr. Sanders at 49.6 percent with 97 percent of precincts reporting early Tuesday morning.
  • But in the end, a virtual tie in Iowa is an acceptable, if not ideal, result for Mrs. Clinton and an ominous one for Mr. Sanders. He failed to win a state tailor made to his strengths.
  • ...11 more annotations...
  • He fares best among white voters. The electorate was 91 percent white, per the entrance polls. He does well with less affluent voters. The caucus electorate was far less affluent than the national primary electorate in 2008. He’s heavily dependent on turnout from young voters, and he had months to build a robust field operation. As the primaries quickly unfold, he won’t have that luxury.
  • Iowa is not just a white state, but also a relatively liberal one
  • But these strengths were neatly canceled by Mrs. Clinton’s strengths. She won older voters, more affluent voters, along with “somewhat liberal” and “moderate” Democrats.
  • He has nearly no chance to do as well among nonwhite voters as Mr. Obama did in 2008
  • In the end, Mr. Sanders failed to score a clear win in a state where Mr. Obama easily defeated Mrs. Clinton among white voters.
  • Mr. Sanders will have another opportunity to gain momentum after the New Hampshire primary. He might not get as much credit for a victory there as he would have in Iowa, since New Hampshire borders his home state of Vermont. But it could nonetheless give him another opportunity to overcome his weaknesses among nonwhite voters.
  • As a general rule, though, momentum is overrated in primary politics. In 2008, for instance, momentum never really changed the contours of the race. Mr. Obama’s victory in Iowa allowed him to make huge gains among black voters, but not much more — the sort of exception that would seem to prove the rule. Mr. Obama couldn’t even put Mrs. Clinton away after winning a string of states in early February.
  • ick Santorum, Pat Buchanan or Mike Huckabee, who failed to turn early-state victories into broader coalitions.
  • Mrs. Clinton holds more than 50 percent of the vote in national surveys; her share of the vote never declined in 2008.
  • The polls say that her supporters are more likely to be firmly decided than Mr. Sanders’s voters.
  • Why a ‘Virtual Tie’ in Iowa Is Better for Clinton Than Sanders
Javier E

How Iowa Mishandled the Coronavirus Pandemic - The Atlantic - 0 views

www.theatlantic.com/...617252

pandemic iowa response

shared by Javier E on 05 Dec 20 - No Cached
  • Iowa Is What Happens When Government Does Nothing The story of the coronavirus in the state is one of government inaction in the name of freedom and personal responsibility. Elaine Godfrey December 3, 2020
  • The story of the coronavirus in this state is one of government inaction in the name of freedom and personal responsibility.
  • Iowa is what happens when a government does basically nothing to stop the spread of a deadly virus.
  • ...13 more annotations...
  • “In a lot of ways, Iowa is serving as the control group of what not to do,”
  • Perencevich and other public-health experts predict that the state’s lax political leadership will result in a “super peak” over the holidays, and thousands of preventable deaths in the weeks to come. “We know the storm’s coming,” Perencevich said. “You can see it on the horizon.”
  • Joe English, a 37-year-old respiratory therapist, spends every day traveling between hospital units, hooking up seriously ill COVID-19 patients to ventilators or ECMO machines. When there’s nothing left to be done, English is the one who turns off those machines; he’s done so at least 50 times in the past few months. “What I’m seeing [among health-care workers] is just frustration, desperation,” English told me. “People have been acting like we’ve been fighting a war for months.”
  • There is a name for this feeling, says Kevin Doerschug, the director of the hospital’s medical ICU: moral distress, or the sense of loss and helplessness associated with health-care workers navigating limitations in space, treatment, and personnel
  • A recent New York Times analysis clearly showed that states with the tightest COVID-19 restrictions have managed to keep cases per capita lower than states with few restrictions.
  • What makes all of this suffering and death exponentially more painful is the simple fact that much of it was preventable
  • Democrats in Iowa believe that Reynolds’s inaction has always been about politics. Early on, she’d assumed an important role making sure that Trump would win Iowa in the November election, State Senator Joe Bolkcom, who represents Iowa City, told me. “She did that by making people feel comfortable” about going out to eat, going to bars, and going back to school. “She mimicked Trump’s posture” to get him elected. Ultimately, Reynolds was successful in her efforts: Trump won Iowa by 8 points. But Iowans lost much more.
  • Iowa’s problem is not that residents don’t want to do the right thing, or that they have some kind of unique disregard for the health of their neighbors. Instead, they looked to elected leaders they trust to tell them how to navigate this crisis, and those leaders, including Trump and Reynolds, told them they didn’t need to do much at all.
  • Which means that not only are health-care professionals tasked with saving sick Iowans’ lives, but it’s also fallen on them to communicate the truth about the pandemic.
  • The crisis in Iowa’s hospitals could be improved in a matter of weeks if Iowans started wearing a mask whenever they leave the house and stopped spending time indoors with people outside their households.
  • Without state leadership on board, none of those changes will happen. “The endgame of uncontrolled spread is a choice between massive death and suffering and overflowing hospitals, or shutting things down,” he said. “This is the equivalent [of] choosing between death or amputation—when you could have had an earlier surgery, which would have been painful but would have prevented this scenario from developing in the first place.”
  • Reynolds needs to order bars closed and restaurants to move to takeout only, at least until the surge is over, public-health experts told me. Reynolds and other state leaders could frame mask wearing and self-isolation as a matter of patriotic duty. “We need to make the right thing to do the easy thing to do,” T
  • right now, Iowa is on a disastrous path. Experts expect to see a spike in COVID-19 cases in the state roughly one week from now, two weeks after the Thanksgiving holiday. That spike will likely precede a surge in hospitalizations and, eventually, a wave of new deaths—maybe as many as 80 a day, Perencevich, the infectious-disease doctor, estimates. Add Christmas and New Year’s to the mix, and Iowans can expect to see nothing less than a tsunami
sarahbalick

Donald Trump wants Iowa rematch, accusing Cruz of 'fraud' - BBC News - 0 views

www.bbc.com/...world-us-canada-35486983

donald trump iowa cruz fraud

shared by sarahbalick on 03 Feb 16 - No Cached
  • Donald Trump wants Iowa rematch, accusing Cruz of 'fraud'
  • Presidential candidate Donald Trump has called for a new election in Iowa, accusing the Republican winner, Ted Cruz, of fraud.
  • Mr Trump pointed to the fact that during the caucus the Cruz campaign told voters rival Ben Carson planned to quit the race, which was not true.
  • ...5 more annotations...
  • Mr Pate said Mr Cruz's mailers "misrepresent Iowa election law" and that they were "not in keeping in the spirit of the Iowa Caucuses," but he stopped short of any official action.
  • "Ted Cruz didn't win Iowa, he stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!" Mr Trump said.Earlier, he wrote on Twitter that Mr Cruz "illegally" won the caucus, but later deleted the tweet.
  • Mr Trump placed second in Monday's contest, which he called "a long-shot great finish" in an earlier tweet.
  • Mr Cruz's camp is not taking the accusations too seriously.
  • "Reality just hit the reality star - he lost Iowa and now nobody is talking about him, so he's popping off on Twitter," Mr Cruz's communications director Rick Tyler told Politico in an email.
blythewallick

The Iowa caucuses are three weeks away - and there's no clear frontrunner | Art Cullen ... - 0 views

www.theguardian.com/...es-democrats-us-elections-2020

culture politics US Policy gop

shared by blythewallick on 16 Jan 20 - No Cached
  • Our attention has been firmly fixed on a historically huge field of 25 Democratic presidential candidates since each stood on a soapbox and delivered their pitch at the state fair in August, within earshot of the butter cow.
  • And that about half of us who think we are close to decided are still sucking our thumbs and remain open to some other suitor.
  • The Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa poll reported Friday that Bernie Sanders has a slight lead at 20%, with Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden bunched in close behind in double digits. Amy Klobuchar is in shouting distance at 6%, and Andrew Yang pulls in 5%.
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  • Second choices, in this context, are as important as first.
  • Only Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg and Biden muster 15% so far. Klobuchar is worth keeping an eye on, as the next-door neighbor from Minnesota, but her support hasn’t swelled.
  • “Viability” is the watchword. That’s because the caucus rules dictate that a candidate must have 15% support from the attendees who show up for two hours in a school cafeteria on a typical winter evening draped in freezing rain.
  • Sixty perc ent of those polled said the former South Bend mayor is either their first or second choice, while 59% say the same about the senator from
  • Sanders benefits from a core of support that has stayed in place since he virtually tied Hillary Clinton in the Iowa caucus in 2016. His indictment: Clinton supported the Iraq war. His indictment revisited: Biden supported the Iraq war – a not-inconsiderable charge in Iowa. Iowa Democrats have a strong anti-war streak that runs deep among descendants of Prussian draft-dodgers.
  • I suspect on-the-ground organization matters most – especially for candidates who are tied up in a congressional impeachment trial and can’t campaign. For certain, caucus night is going to be crazy. No doubt about that.
katherineharron

Pete Buttigieg picks up the pace in Iowa as impeachment keeps others away - CNNPolitics - 0 views

www.cnn.com/...index.html

shared by katherineharron on 17 Jan 20 - No Cached
  • Buttigieg embarked on one of his most frenetic days yet in the Hawkeye State, speeding across the state's snow-covered northern border with Minnesota to pitch his candidacy to both diehard Democrats who are leaning toward caucusing for him and what the mayor calls "future former Republicans," those voters who backed President Donald Trump in 2016 but want to vote against him four year later.
  • "If he does not place in the top two in either Iowa or New Hampshire, or I would argue if he places behind Biden in both of those contests, that will be it," said one source familiar with the Buttigieg campaign's thinking in Iowa, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about the campaign. That view reflects the idea that without strong finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, Buttigieg will lack the momentum his campaign is counting on to carry him into future contests.
  • All of this comes as Warren, Sanders and Klobuchar -- all of whom have also spent considerable time focused on Iowa -- will be required to be in Washington to fulfill their role as jurors in Trump's impeachment trial, taking them off the campaign trail with only weeks to go until the Iowa caucuses.
  • ...3 more annotations...
  • "I think I am going to sign a caucus card for Pete today," she said. Asked what she would do if Buttigieg didn't win the nomination, Hrdlicka was direct: "I am going to vote for Trump."
  • Buttigieg's campaign is enthused by these supporters, but knows it will take more than just a surge in former Republicans to win the Iowa caucuses. So Buttigieg has begun to put the hard ask on voters here in Iowa, urging them to embrace the next few weeks as decision time.
  • "We've advanced to this stage in the race with a message that obviously wasn't based on me having been a household name for or having an office in Washington, DC," Buttigieg said in Newton on Wednesday. "It's about making sure we connect with the lived experience on the ground of the voters who have so much to gain or lose by the decisions that are going to be made in the White House in the years ahead."
brickol

Iowa caucus results: what we know so far | US news | The Guardian - 0 views

www.theguardian.com/...es-results-what-we-know-so-far

politics US election

shared by brickol on 04 Feb 20 - No Cached
  • The results of the Iowa caucuses, the first step in nominating the Democrat who will run against Donald Trump in November’s presidential election, have been delayed amid mass confusion in the state.
  • The Iowa Democratic party would only say it “expect[s] to have numbers to report later today”.
  • Three sets of votes were due to be released, relating to different stages of the process. But precinct captains – who oversee voting at more than 1,600 locations across Iowa – told journalists it had taken hours to report their local vote counts to the Democratic party.
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • a problem with a phone app, which precincts use to send their vote totals to the party, was responsible.
  • The Bernie Sanders campaign released “internal reporting numbers”, which it said represented the results from about 40% of precincts in Iowa. The data showed Sanders in the lead with 30% of the vote, Pete Buttigieg in second place with 25%, and Elizabeth Warren third on 21%.
blythewallick

Iowa Caucus Results Riddled With Errors and Inconsistencies - The New York Times - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...a-caucuses-errors-results.html

politics US

shared by blythewallick on 06 Feb 20 - No Cached
  • Results from the Iowa Democratic caucuses were delayed by “quality control checks” on Monday night. Days later, quality control issues have not been resolved.
  • But not all of the errors are minor, and they raise questions about whether the public will ever get a completely precise account of the Iowa results. With Mr. Sanders closing to within 0.1 percentage points with 97 percent of 1,765 precincts reporting, the race could easily grow close enough for even the most minor errors to delay a final projection or raise doubts about a declared winner.
  • The errors are detectable because of changes to the way the Iowa Democratic Party reports its results, put in place after the Sanders campaign criticized the caucus results in 2016. This cycle, and for the first time, the party released three sets of results corresponding to different steps in the caucus process. The rules are complex and thorough, and they create conditions in which the results can be obviously inaccurate or inconsistent within a precinct.
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • No new voters are permitted to join the caucus after the first alignment. But in at least 70 precincts, more than 4 percent of the total, there are more tabulated total votes on final alignment than on first alignment.
  • The Iowa Democratic Party has corrected some errors, but the errors became far more frequent on Wednesday as the count dragged on.
  • The Iowa Democratic Party quickly corrected these errors, and they are not included in our overall count of discrepancies in more than 100 precincts. The party has not yet addressed other irregularities reported to it or circulating on social media. In another case, The Times alerted the party to an error at 6 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday that remained in the data released several hours later.
  • Even if the appropriate candidate is deemed the winner, the irregularities in the results are likely to do little to restore public confidence in the Iowa caucuses.
johnsonel7

Democratic Debate Analysis: Winners, Takeaways From Feb. 7 | Time - 0 views

time.com/...mocratic-debate-analysis-feb-7

Democratic debate 2020 Iowa New Hampshire Biden Sanders Warren Buttigieg politics

shared by johnsonel7 on 09 Feb 20 - No Cached
  • There’s no frontrunner, the president has just been acquitted for impeachment and voters still don’t know who won the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses. With rank-and-file Democrats desperate for a solid standard-bearer, the candidates rushed to argue they were the best bet to beat President Donald Trump, setting off a surreal meta-debate about that most ineffable of political qualities, “electability.”
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden, coming off a dismal fourth-place Iowa showing, practically conceded New Hampshire right off the bat, arguing that the first four nominating contests should be regarded as a group. Sen. Bernie Sanders, who appears to have won the most Iowa raw votes, argued that his movement could realign American politics by increasing voter turnout. And Pete Buttigieg, who’s receiving a surge of new attention since his unexpectedly strong Iowa result, positioned himself as a Washington outsider.
  • At first, everything was going great for Buttigieg. Fresh off a strong showing in the muddled Iowa Caucuses and surging in the polls in New Hampshire, Buttigieg started the debate in a virtuous cycle: he is a favorite punching bag of his rivals, but nearly every time his opponents attacked him, he was able to parry the response into another opportunity to push his message of unity, belonging and futurism. He talked about a “style of politics” and the need to “turn the page” from “the politics of the past.”
  • ...5 more annotations...
  • Biden has always had it in him. In 2012, he reset the trajectory of a sinking Obama re-election bid with an aggressive if occasionally smug performance in his vice presidential debate against the GOP pick of Paul Ryan. The Obama team had prepared exhaustive research into every piece of legislation Ryan — the Republican Party’s self-anointed ideas guy — touched.
  • “The politics of the past, I think, were not all that bad,” Biden responded
  • Buttigieg’s aptitude for talking his way out of tough spots has taken him from being a no-name mayor of South Bend, Indiana, to a top-tier presidential contender. But when confronted with the racial disparity in marijuana arrests in South Bend, Buttigieg’s eloquence hit its limit. “There is no question that systemic racism has penetrated every level of our system, and my city was not immune,” he said,
  • Warren finished third in Iowa, caught in the no-man’s land between Sanders’ liberal warriors and Buttigieg’s appeal to moderates and suburbanites. Her fate in the debate was similar: Always articulate, always prepared, she still seemed not to have a way to distinguish herself from the rest of the field
  • Warren gave sharp and persuasive articulations of her positions, but didn’t necessarily make the case that voters should prefer her over the other candidates. She did stand out on the question of race: asked if Buttigieg’s answer was “substantial,” she replied, flatly, “No,” and went on to make a passionate argument that racial justice must go beyond the criminal-justice system
rachelramirez

Little Separates Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton in Tight Race in Iowa - The New Yor... - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...on-democratic-iowa-caucus.html

bernie hillary iowa US politics

shared by rachelramirez on 03 Feb 16 - No Cached
  • Little Separates Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton in Tight Race in Iowa
  • results were deeply unnerving to Mrs. Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, as well as her advisers, some of whom had expressed growing confidence in recent days that they had recaptured political momentum
  • The virtual tie between the two candidates instantly raised the stakes for their next face-off, the primary next Tuesday in New Hampshire
  • ...3 more annotations...
  • The voters sent a clear message that income inequality weighed on their minds, with more than one in four Democratic voters saying the issue was the most important facing the nation, according to surveys of voters leaving the polls.
  • Mr. Sanders’s strong performance in Iowa was a significant milestone in a campaign in which he began 40 percentage points behind Mrs. Clinton when they both declared their candidacies last spring
  • While she long said that Iowa would be a tight race, and improved upon her 2008 performance when she won 29.5 percent and fell to third place behind John Edwards, Mrs. Clinton nonetheless hoped that she would start exorcising the ghosts of 2008 with a victory here
kirkpatrickry

Sanders gaining in Iowa: Is America finally ready for socialism? - CSMonitor.com - 0 views

www.csmonitor.com/...ca-finally-ready-for-socialism

politics US

shared by kirkpatrickry on 18 Jan 16 - No Cached
  • As Bernie Sanders edges closer to Hillary Clinton in the Iowa polls, one thing is becoming clear: Instead of being a liability, his socialist platform may be his strongest asset.
  • The new Selzer & Co. Iowa poll found that 43 percent of likely voters in the Feb. 1 Democratic Iowa caucuses would use the word “socialist” to describe themselves
  • Interestingly enough, “capitalist” also proved to be a partisan label. While a considerable portion of Democratic Iowa caucus-goers were eager to label themselves socialists, fewer would described themselves as capitalist – only 38 percent.
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • In The New York Times/CBS News poll conducted November, 56 percent of Democratic primary voters nationally said they felt positive about socialism as a governing philosophy, versus 29 percent who took a negative view.
andrespardo

Iowa caucus remains too close to call with 100% of precincts reporting | US news | The ... - 0 views

www.theguardian.com/...ders-nearly-tied-iowa-caucuses

politics US election trump

shared by andrespardo on 07 Feb 20 - No Cached
  • With 100% of precincts reporting, the pair were locked in a virtual tie. Buttigieg, leading by just 1.5 state delegate equivalents, had an advantage of about 0.1 percentage points.
  • He added in second tweet: “A recanvass is a review of the worksheets from each caucus site to ensure accuracy.”
  • “In the grand scheme of things,” he said, a recanvass would probably not affect the overall delegate math. But “the reason why I think it’s important is because I want to make sure that every Iowa voter knows their vote was counted”.
  • ...6 more annotations...
  • Sanders said his campaign was ahead of the former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg and his rivals by about 6,000 votes.
  • 6,000 popular votes,” Sanders said.
  • But the results in Iowa were muddied by the stunning breakdown of the caucus reporting process in a state that traditionally kicks off presidential nominating contests. Iowa officials initially attributed a delay in reporting results to technical problems with an app that precinct chairs were supposed to use to record votes, then to backlogs as those volunteers tried to call the party to submit their totals.
  • Sanders and his supporters raised issues with the primary process after the 2016 election, prompting the Democratic National Committee to make changes that affected the Iowa reporting regulations.
  • The final alignment results are used to determine state delegate equivalents, which is the metric the AP has long used to call the winner of the caucus. Democrats pick their nominee based on delegate totals.
  • On the occasion of its 100th birthday in 1921 the editor of the Guardian said, "Perhaps the chief virtue of a newspaper is its independence. It should have a soul of its own." That is more true than ever. Freed from the influence of an owner or shareholders, the Guardian's editorial independence is our unique driving force and guiding principle.
katherineharron

Kim Reynolds, Iowa governor, signs controversial law shortening early and Election Day ... - 0 views

www.cnn.com/...index.html

voting

shared by katherineharron on 09 Mar 21 - No Cached
  • Republican Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds on Monday signed into law a controversial bill aimed at limiting voting and making it harder for voters to return absentee ballots, her office announced Monday.
  • The legislation, which passed both Republican-controlled chambers of the state legislature last month, will reduce the number of early voting days from 29 days to 20 days.
  • It will also close polling places an hour earlier on Election Day (at 8 p.m. instead of 9 p.m.).
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • The bill additionally places new restrictions on absentee voting including banning officials from sending applications without a voter first requesting one and requiring ballots be received by the county before polls close on Election Day.
  • "It's our duty and responsibility to protect the integrity of every election. This legislation strengthens uniformity by providing Iowa's election officials with consistent parameters for Election Day, absentee voting, database maintenance, as well as a clear appeals process for local county auditors," Reynolds said in a statement Monday.
  • The new law drew immediate backlash from Democrats in the state, including a tweet from the Iowa Democratic party stating, "We deserve better."
  • Democratic election attorney Marc Elias similarly called the law "the first major suppression law since the 2020 election" in a tweet and noted that litigation could be forthcoming.
johnsonel7

The media's obsession with Iowa deepens the Democrats' whiteness problem | Jon Allsop |... - 0 views

www.theguardian.com/...he-democrats-whiteness-problem

media politics

shared by johnsonel7 on 14 Jan 20 - No Cached
  • And then there were 12. On Monday, Cory Booker, the US senator from New Jersey, became the latest contender to drop out of the Democratic presidential primary. The field is still very big, but it has narrowed in one meaningful sense: it was once historically diverse, but with Booker out, just three candidates of color remain, only one of whom, the former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick, is black.
  • It will take place in Iowa, which is 91% white. Every single candidate on stage will be white, too
  • Yesterday, pundits reiterated that critique, and there was renewed discussion, too, of Iowa’s place at the top of the primary calendar, which earns the state disproportionate attention every four years. “The whiteness of [the] donor class and early states really matters,” Astead W Herndon, a politics reporter for the New York Times, tweeted. “Their vision of electability impacts viability.”
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • As the Times acknowledged back in September, as media focus started to turn in earnest toward Iowa (five months before any actual voting), the state’s caucuses “disenfranchise huge blocs of voters”, and yet, “to a greater degree than in recent campaigns, this unrepresentative and idiosyncratic state is proving that it is the only electoral battleground that matters for Democrats”. We should be counterbalancing that logic, not eagerly indulging it. And yet, as in so many cycles past, the Iowa feeding frenzy is kicking in again, to the exclusion of other issues, and voices, that matter.
katherineharron

2020 election: Why 2nd choice matters so much at the Iowa caucuses - CNNPolitics - 0 views

www.cnn.com/...index.html

shared by katherineharron on 16 Jan 20 - No Cached
  • 5. Nevada, Nevada, Nevada: Quick, name the first four states in the Democratic nomination fight. Well, there's Iowa (February 3) and New Hampshire (February 11), obviously. And then South Carolina (February 29), of course.
  • 4. Do endorsements matter at all?: I've long been a skeptic that endorsements from politicians have any major effect on voters. But the rapidly approaching Iowa caucuses will give a real-time chance to test how much endorsements matter.
  • 3. Liberal-on-liberal fights: Since the start of this campaign, Sanders and Warren have played nice with one another.
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • 2. Here's your debate primer: The last debate before the Iowa caucuses is set for Tuesday night at 9 p.m. Eastern on your favorite network. (That's CNN, if you were wondering!)
  • 1. Race for second choice in Iowa: By now, you've likely seen the new CNN-Des Moines Register poll out of Iowa; it's a statistical four-way tie between Sanders (20%), Warren (17%), Buttigieg (16%) and Biden (15%).
katherineharron

Ranking the Top 5 Democrats in the 2020 race - CNNPolitics - 0 views

www.cnn.com/...index.html

shared by katherineharron on 17 Jan 20 - No Cached
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  • But the level of not-knowing-what-the-hell-is-going-to-happen is much higher in this race than any we've seen in modern memory. Just four in 10 Iowa Democrats said they were locked in on their candidate choice in a CNN/Des Moines Register poll earlier this month. That's significantly lower than the 59% who said they had made up their minds about a candidate at the same time in 2016.
  • 5. Amy Klobuchar: The Minnesota senator wanted (needed?) a star turn at the debate earlier this week in Iowa to close the gap between herself and the four top candidates in Iowa.
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • 3 (tie). Elizabeth Warren: We're moving the senior senator up on our list for two reasons. First, although Warren is arguably in a worse position than Buttigieg in Iowa and New Hampshire, she is in a better position than he is nationally.
  • 3 (tie). Pete Buttigieg: Buttigieg is, weirdly, the most divisive candidate in the field. Just take his debate performance on Tuesday night as an example. Chris wrote that he came across as well-versed on the issues, authoritative and possessing the necessary gravitas to serve as commander-in-chief.
  • . Bernie Sanders: We've both written about how it's not far-fetched at all that the junior senator from Vermont could win the nomination.
  • 1. Joe Biden: The former vice president has the easiest path to the nomination. If Biden wins in Iowa, he is the heavy favorite to be the nominee.
katherineharron

Why Democrats are favored to take back the Senate - CNNPolitics - 0 views

www.cnn.com/...index.html

election

shared by katherineharron on 30 Oct 20 - No Cached
  • Whoever wins the presidential race can use the full power of the presidency only if he has a Senate backing him up. Currently, Republicans hold 53 of 100 seats.
  • Democrats need a net gain of three seats
  • it looks like Democrats are going to get a majority, but the battle for control remains close and will likely be determined by two related factors:
  • ...7 more annotations...
  • Take a look at the five Republican-held seats that are most likely to flip at this point to the Democrats: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine and North Carolina. As of this writing, Democratic Senate candidates hold polling advantages of 5 points in Arizona, 9 points in Colorado, 1 point in Iowa, 5 points in Maine and 3 points in North Carolina.
  • Those advantages tend to be fairly close to the lead Democratic Senate candidates have in those same states: 3 points in Arizona, 13 points in Colorado, 1 point in Iowa, 15 points in Maine and 2 points in North Carolina. The average difference across these states is just 3 points,
  • Cases are rising particularly quickly in Iowa, where Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds has refused to institute a mask mandate.
  • Biden now holds an average 2-point edge over Trump in the Peach State, where there are two competitive Senate races.
  • Those are small enough Republican leads that the Democrats could win in these states, but with Trump ahead in both, it'll be tough.
  • Biden has been making clear gains against Trump: Georgia.
  • That could make the difference in a state like Iowa in the presidential race, which could in turn shift the Senate race -- one that ultimately could determine control of the US Senate.
maddieireland334

Clinton Campaign Underestimated Sanders Strengths, Allies Say - The New York Times - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...rs-earlier-her-allies-say.html

shared by maddieireland334 on 16 Jan 16 - No Cached
  • Advisers to Hillary Clinton, including former President Bill Clinton, believe that her campaign made serious miscalculations by forgoing early attacks on Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and failing to undercut his archliberal message before it grew into a political movement that has now put him within striking distance of beating Mrs. Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire.
  • They have asked her advisers about the strength of the campaign’s data modeling and turnout assumptions in Iowa, given that her 2008 campaign’s predictions were so inaccurate.
  • As the Democratic rivals prepare for what is likely to be a contentious televised debate on Sunday night, the Clintons are particularly concerned that her “rational message,” in the words of an aide, is not a fit with a restless Democratic primary electorate
  • ...8 more annotations...
  • But Mrs. Clinton’s problems are broader than just her message: Opinion polls show that some Democrats and other voters continue to question her trustworthiness and whether she cares about their problems. Recent polls show that her once-formidable lead over Mr. Sanders in Iowa has all but vanished, while he is holding on to a slight lead over her in New Hampshire.
  • Mrs. Clinton and her team say they always anticipated the race would tighten, yet they were not prepared for Mr. Sanders to become so popular with young people and independents, especially women, whom Mrs. Clinton views as a key part of her base.
  • Several Clinton advisers are also regretting that they did not push for more debates, where Mrs. Clinton excels, to more skillfully marginalize Mr. Sanders over his Senate votes in support of the gun industry and the enormous costs and likely tax increases tied to his big-government agenda.
  • Instead, Mrs. Clinton, who entered the race as the prohibitive favorite, played it safe, opting for as few debates as possible, scheduled at times when viewership was likely to be low
  • Both Mrs. Clinton and her husband believe she can still win the Feb. 1 caucuses in Iowa and the Feb. 9 primary in New Hampshire despite Mr. Sanders’s gaining ground recently and now being virtually tied with her in many polls in those states. But the Clintons also believe she can survive losses in both places because of the strength of her political organization and support in the Feb. 27 primary in South Carolina and in many March 1 Super Tuesday states and other big states to follow.
  • Yet some Democratic Party officials who remain uncommitted said that after nine months of running, Mrs. Clinton still had not found her voice when it came to inspiring people and making herself broadly likable.
  • While Mrs. Clinton is known for connecting well with people in small settings, she has not shown the same winning touch as consistently at rallies or in television interviews, they said.
  • “Her voter base does not seem as gung-ho energetic as Sanders’s base,” Mr. McDonald said. “It may be that they feel like they are waiting for the real race to begin. But an enthusiastic base can make a big difference in the early stages of a presidential nomination campaign, and if Hillary can’t pull away from Sanders fairly early in the season, I suspect he will gain strength rapidly.”
Javier E

The Pied Pipers of the Dirtbag Left Want to Lead Everyone to Bernie Sanders - The New Y... - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...-sanders-chapo-trap-house.html

history left radical 2020 election culture crisis despair

shared by Javier E on 29 Feb 20 - No Cached
  • “Chapo Trap House,” which started in 2016, typically runs between 60 and 90 minutes. Two episodes are released every week, one for free and one for the nearly 38,000 people who pay $5 a month through the crowdfunding site Patreon. It leads to a financial windfall for the self-professed socialists who are harnessing this rage: $168,800 a month from those subscribers alone.
  • the Sanders campaign maintains a close relationship with the podcast. His senior adviser, David Sirota, and his national press secretary, Briahna Joy Gray, have also been on the podcast. At the Iowa show, a Sanders volunteer stood at the door with fliers and pins to hand out and an email list to gather names.
  • Their followers — on the night in Iowa City more than 700 strong — come to hear them rage for three hours against the student debt, the high rent, the dead-end creative class jobs, and the feeling of hopelessness fighting against a liberal political establishment that seems polite when they are angry.
  • ...24 more annotations...
  • “It’s really easy to feel alone in America. It’s the loneliest place in the loneliest time,” the co-host Felix Biederman said, speaking of the early days of their work. “But eventually people started to gather around all these posts into the void.”
  • The topic is inequality, raging against the rich.
  • Julius Krein, the conservative founder of the new publication American Affairs, has noticed the new allies.“There is a lot of interesting convergence on some of the anti-woke thinking and many things that, perhaps surprisingly, we agree on, for different reasons,”
  • “It’s fairly easy to have fun, pretty exciting dialogue between right-wing anti-neoliberals and left-wing anti-neoliberals.”
  • “‘Chapo Trap House,’ the entire Dirtbag Left, have tapped that male privilege of intimidating people into assuming you’re cool,” said Amanda Marcotte, a liberal feminist writer for Salon
  • ,
  • These Sanders supporters eschew the idea of party unity as a scam: “I won’t vote for anyone but Bernie in the general, can’t say what the hundreds of thousands of people who listen to my show will do, but I’m only speaking for myself,” Mr. Menaker wrote on Twitter a day after the Iowa caucuses.
  • An additional challenge is that as the free-floating anger they stoke finds community, it is escalating and souring into sometimes violent and ugly rhetoric
  • For the hosts and their fans, those sort of tweets and the podcast language are all jokes. The audience understands the difference, they argue, and anyway the real problem with the Democrats is that they’re overly sensitive. A bunch of self-serious P.M.C.s (members of the professional-managerial class).
  • Over the summer, the “Chapo Trap House” message board, which has nearly 153,000 members who chat about the news and memes of the day, was censured by Reddit, which hosts it
  • They want what Mr. Sanders wants: universal health care, canceled student loans, free college, and an overhaul of the tax system. They want to cut the national prison population by half and to install a ban on fracking. And for them anything less than this is nothing at all
  • “We do everything our parents say, and it doesn’t work,” said Brayson Cope, 18, a college student from Altoona and a Sanders volunteer.His reason for listening to “Chapo" is simple, he said.“They’re angry. I like it because they’re angry.”
  • “The reason for the quarantine is that we have observed repeated rule-breaking behavior in your community, especially in the form of encouragement of violence,”
  • according to fans of the podcast and movement, there are a lot of neoliberal shills out there.
  • For many left-wing groups, the Chapo podcast and its Reddit community are now setting the weekly conversation agenda.
  • “It’s a touchstone,” said Brendan McGillicuddy, 39, who teaches in the cultural studies department at the University of Minnesota. “At my workplace, everyone listens to it, even if you don’t like it.”
  • When Hillary Clinton’s name came up, the reaction was nearly indistinguishable from a Trump rally.“Lock her up,” the co-host Matt Christman said to the crowd.The crowd began to chant: Lock her up. Lock her up.
  • During the three-hour show, there is little vision laid out for what they want, beyond a Sanders presidency. There is a vision for what they want destroyed and how good it will feel to do that. The idea of actually taking power is terrifying, and they say so.“What’s scary is the idea that this could end,” Mr. Biederman said. “What’s scary is we’re not just tossing catharsis into the void, that this is something real. We are there.”
  • “It’s a common experience to be someone with a crappy job who does not have an outlet for your set of beliefs and you feel insane because you’re surrounded by liberals or Evangelicals or whatever stultifying milieu,” he said. “And one day you find a piece of media with some folks who are articulating what you always believed: You’re not crazy, you’re right, this is exactly how the world works, and you’re getting screwed.”
  • He said he knew that the anger the podcast was building could be dangerous, but he said the anger — and the fear of violence it brings — was good.
  • “Educating a generation and saddling them with debt and then not giving them jobs where they have the wage that they presume they should receive based on the amount of time they spent on education,” Virgil said. “That’s a pretty good way to turn them into radicals.”He is a good example of his own target audience: He graduated with $100,000 of debt from Cornell and after college took freelance gigs from Craigslist, hoping to write.
  • While the Chapo hosts rail against the media establishment, they are also deeply entwined with it and largely beloved by it. (Mr. Menaker, for example, grew up on the Upper West Side, the son of a New York Times editor and a New Yorker editor.)
  • He does not want to live in a capitalist society at all.“I think it’s a moral stain to live in this society,” he said. “And every day I think, God I’d rather just leave.”But he’s not sure where he would move
  • Outside the Iowa City show, Adam Angstead, 46, had stepped out of the theater for a cigarette. He works for the Iowa City school district as a substitute teacher five days a week, but he said his employment offers no benefits. On the weekends he works at a diner. Twice a week he sells his blood plasma for extra cash.It’s still not enough. He was trying to pay down his $40,000 in student loans for a while, but it hardly made a dent, and recently he has gotten a deferment. For him, the primary feels like a life-or-death battle.“Being in a room with a bunch of people who think the same thing or close made me think we might not all literally die,” he said. “Bernie’s the only one.”
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