To defeat Trump, Sanders and Warren supporters must stay united (opinion) - CNN - 0 views
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As the first primaries and caucuses of 2020 approach, the race for the Democratic nomination is shaping up to be a three-way primary between Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. This means the progressive wing of the Democratic Party is going toe-to-toe with the centrist wing of the party, whose policies are less intrusive to entrenched corporate power. The most certain way to ensure the corporate wing wins is for the progressive wing to fracture.
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According to FiveThirtyEight's most recent assessment of which candidate is most likely to win the nomination, Biden comes out in front, with the data model giving him a 40%chance of winning outright and predicting he'll receive, on average, over 1,500 pledged delegates. Sen. Sanders has a 23% chance of winning outright, with the model. F forecasting an average of over 1,000 pledged delegates, and Sen. Warren has a 13% chance, with around 700.
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Nominating Biden could very well lead to four more years of President Trump, given his lack of a robust volunteer base. As the Philadelphia Inquirer noted in October, debate watch parties organized by Biden's campaign were sparsely attended. The Biden campaign's impotent efforts in Iowa were well-documented by The New York Times in November, with one county Democratic Party chair calling the unscripted portions of his speeches "unfocused and less energetic."
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