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Follain, James R., PhD. "A Study of Real Estate Markets in Declining Cities." 1-84. Washington, D.C: Research Institute for Housing America of the Mortgage Bankers Association, 2010. From Executive Summary: "The "Great Recession" of 2007 to 2009 has taken a great toll on housing markets in most cities and metropolitan areas in all parts of the country. Though the pace and extent of the overall economic recovery of these markets is still far from certain, many places will likely resume growth and fully recover within the next decade or so. This is almost certainly not to be the case for all metropolitan areas. In fact, a number of large metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) experienced severe recessions during the latter half of the 20th century and prior to the Great Recession and never fully recovered or took many years to do so. Even among those metro areas with relatively bright long-run prospects for growth, certain submarkets within them may remain well below recent house price peaks for many years to come. What is a declining city? Simply put, a declining city is one in which the people have left, but the houses, apartment buildings, offices and storefronts remain. At the extreme, think of a ghost town from the Old West, a town that lost its reason for being. Are there cities or large metro areas in the United States at risk of disappearing back into the desert (or the swamp) today? Probably not, but there are certainly neighborhoods and submarkets within metro areas that have passed a tipping point, and have little prospect of returning to anything close to their previous peaks. Lastly, another type of declining city may also be emerging - places that grew substantially during the housing boom and are now experiencing unprecedented declines in house prices and increases in foreclosures. The primary goal of this paper is to offer insights on the potential future evolution of real estate markets in cities that are in the midst of a severe and persistent

Rosenthal, Stuart S. 2008. "Old homes, externalities, and poor neighborhoods. A model of urban decline and renewal". Journal of Urban Economics. 63 (3): 816. Abstract: "This paper investigates urban decline and renewal in the United States using three panels that follow neighborhoods on a geographically consistent basis over extended periods of time. Findings indicate that change in neighborhood economic status is common, averaging roughly 13 percent per decade; roughly two-thirds of neighborhoods studied in 1950 were of quite different economic status fifty years later. Panel unit root tests for 35 MSAs indicate that neighborhood economic status is a stationary process, consistent with long-running cycles of decline and renewal. In Philadelphia County, a complete cycle appears to last up to 100 years. Aging housing stocks and redevelopment contribute to these patterns, as do local externalities associated with social interactions. Lower-income neighborhoods appear to be especially sensitive to the presence of individuals that provide social capital. Many of the factors that drive change at the local level have large and policy relevant effects."

Cohen, James R. (2001). "Abandoned Housing: Exploring Lessons from Baltimore. Housing Policy Debate." 12(3), 415-48. Abstract: "Population loss and economic decline have resulted in thousands of abandoned homes in major U.S. cities. Although abandoned homes are symptomatic of other problems, they also contribute to neighborhood decline and frustrate revitalization. This article provides an overview of the national scope of abandoned housing and profiles Baltimore's strategy for addressing this problem. Challenges in Baltimore's revitalization planning include the necessity of and financial requirements for a comprehensive approach and the difficulty of reaching consensus. Widespread property "flipping" hampers prevention. Efforts to acquire and demolish units are constrained by difficulties in tracking ownership, felons' ownership of derelict units, and a shortage of staffing to process takings. Challenges in rehabilitating and marketing row houses include the need for subsidies to make units affordable to the most likely buyers, the omnipresence of lead paint, and the lack of foreign immigration. The article proposes a more strategic approach to the city's revitalization planning." [Also view: Culhane, Dennis P., and Amy E. Hillier (2001). "Comment on 'Abandoned Housing: Exploring Lessons From Baltimore.'" Housing Policy Debate. 12(3), 449-55.]

United States Government Accountability Office. "Mortgage Foreclosures: Additional Mortgage Servicer Actions Could Help Reduce the Frequency and Impact of Abandoned Foreclosures." 1-86. Washington, D.C.: U.S. GAO, 2010. Summary: "Entities responsible for managing home mortgage loans--called servicers--may initiate foreclosure proceedings on certain delinquent loans but then decide to not complete the process. Many of these properties are vacant. These abandoned foreclosure--or "bank walkaway"--properties can exacerbate neighborhood decline and complicate federal stabilization efforts. GAO was asked to assess (1) the nature and prevalence of abandoned foreclosures, (2) their impact on communities, (3) practices that may lead servicers to initiate but not complete foreclosures and regulatory oversight of foreclosure practices, and (4) actions some communities have taken to reduce abandoned foreclosures and their impacts. GAO analyzed servicer loan data from January 2008 through March 2010 and conducted case studies in 12 cities. GAO also interviewed representatives of federal agencies, state and local officials, nonprofit organizations, and six servicers, among others, and reviewed federal banking regulations and exam guidance. Among other things, GAO recommends that the Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) require servicers they oversee to notify borrowers and communities when foreclosures are halted and to obtain updated valuations for selected properties before initiating foreclosure. The Federal Reserve neither agreed nor disagreed with these recommendations. OCC did not comment on the recommendations. Using data from large and subprime servicers and government-sponsored mortgage entities representing nearly 80 percent of mortgages, GAO estimated that abandoned foreclosures are rare--representing less than 1 percent of vacant homes between January 2008 and March 2010. GAO also found that, while abandoned foreclosures have occurred

Wiechmann, Thorsten (2008). Errors Expected - Aligning Urban Strategy with Demographic Uncertainty in Shrinking Cities. International Planning Studies, 13(4), 431-446. Abstract: "At the beginning of the 21st century, the majority of Europe's cities experienced a population decrease. Dealing with the results of demographic, economic and physical contraction processes and planning for the future of considerably smaller but nevertheless livable cities presents some of the most challenging tasks for urban Europe in the near future. This article highlights the example of Dresden in Eastern Germany, where the breakdown of the state-directed economy caused economic decline, industrial regression, and high unemployment rates. Due to out migration and decreasing birth rates, the city lost 60,000 of its 500,000 residents within one decade. As a consequence, there were housing and office vacancies as well as infrastructure oversupplies. Yet the administrative system was still directed towards growth objectives throughout the 1990s. Only after 2000 this situation changed dramatically. The new strategic plan for Dresden is no longer growth oriented. Instead, it focuses on a model of the compact 'European city', with an attractive urban centre, reduced land consumption, and a stable population. However, in another unexpected turn of events, within the last seven years the city has experienced an unexpected growth of 25,000 residents. Surprisingly, processes of suburbanization have turned into processes of reurbanization. Today in Dresden, areas of shrinkage and decline are in close proximity to prospering and wealthy communities. The strategic challenge is to deal with this patchwork while accepting that the future remains unpredictable. Hence, strategic flexibility becomes more important than the strategy itself. To a certain extent rational analysis and error prevention is displaced by preparedness, robustness, and resilience as key qualifications of planning in shrinking c

Howland, Marie. "The Role of Contamination in Central City Industrial Decline." Economic Development Quarterly 18, no. 3 (2004): 13. "This study examines the role that land contamination plays in hindering central city redevelopment. The author tracked all sales and selling prices and the presence of contamination in one industrial area of about 5,580 acres in southwest Baltimore. The results indicate that after the mid-1990s, contaminated parcels have been selling and the market has adjusted to contamination by lowering prices. Out of 144 parcels that sold over the past decade, positive, market-clearing prices have been found for 45 parcels with either confirmed or historical-reasons-to-suspect contamination. Interviews with owners and brokers of parcels on the market for 2 years or more and analysis of the data indicate that sites with above-market asking price; that are small and oddshaped; with inadequate road access for modern trucks; that have outdated water, sewer, and telecommunications connections; and with incompatible surrounding land uses are the most likely to remain unsold after 2 years."

Alexander, Frank S (2008). "Landbanking as Metropolitan Policy. Blueprint for American Prosperity." Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution. Available at http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2008/1028_mortgage_crisis_alexander.aspx Executive Summary: "Stressed by the catastrophic mortgage foreclosure crisis and the long-run decline of older, industrial regions, communities around the country are becoming increasingly burdened with vacant and abandoned properties. In order to alleviate the pressures on national prosperity caused by these derelict properties, the federal government needs to advance policies that support regional and local land banking for the 21st century. Land banking is the process or policy by which local governments acquire surplus properties and convert them to productive use or hold them for long term strategic public purposes. By turning vacant and abandoned properties into community assets such as affordable housing, land banking fosters greater metropolitan prosperity and strengthens broader national economic well-being."