Will Natural Disasters Accelerate Neighborhood Decline? - 3 views

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  #1 Metropolitan Institute on 04 Jan 12

   

  Abstract: Vacant and abandoned properties are not only an urban ill troubling shrinking industrial cities in the United States, they are also a problem facing many growing urban areas as new development sprawls outward at the urban fringes and leaves central neighborhoods increasingly plagued with vacant or underused lots. The emergence of declining neighborhoods in urban areas has been credited to several distinct, but not mutually exclusive causes, including suburbanization, deindustrialization, housing market discrimination, and racial segregation.
  

   

  
  

  These explanations all focus on social or economic factors that have gradually weakened central cities over a period of several decades. Much less attention has been given to the impact that an abrupt natural disaster may have on land vacancy and abandonment. Nevertheless, understanding this relationship holds important relevance to the neighborhood transition theory. It also bears timely policy significance as natural disasters have become an increasing threat facing American metropolises.

  
  

   

  
  

  This research aims to fill this gap in the literature. It examines the impact of an abrupt catastrophic natural disaster on residential property vacancy and abandonment. Using the discrete time hazard model with parcel level land use data in Miami-Dade county, Florida, from two years prior to and eight years after Hurricane Andrew (1991-2000), the analysis shows that Hurricane Andrew triggered wide spread property vacancy and abandonment in its impact area, especially in neighborhoods already in decline. Occurrence of vacancy and abandonment is determined by damage intensity, and the pre-event neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics. The analysis also shows that vacant and abandoned properties exert a negative spillover effect that can induce a succession of vacancy and abandonment over space and time. This research concludes with a discussion about its theoretical relevance and planning implications regarding neighborhood transition and disaster recovery.
  
  Zhang, Yang.  "Will Natural Disasters Accelerate Neighborhood Decline?"  Paper to be presented at the annual conference for the Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning, Salt Lake City, Utah, October 13-16, 2011

   

  <div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">Abstract: Vacant and abandoned properties are not only an urban ill troubling shrinking industrial cities in the United States, they are also a problem facing many growing urban areas as new development sprawls outward at the urban fringes and leaves central neighborhoods increasingly plagued with vacant or underused lots. The emergence of declining neighborhoods in urban areas has been credited to several distinct, but not mutually exclusive causes, including suburbanization, deindustrialization, housing market discrimination, and racial segregation. <br /> <p class="Default"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></p> <br /> <p class="Default"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">These explanations all focus on social or economic factors that have gradually weakened central cities over a period of several decades. Much less attention has been given to the impact that an abrupt natural disaster may have on land vacancy and abandonment. Nevertheless, understanding this relationship holds important relevance to the neighborhood transition theory. It also bears timely policy significance as natural disasters have become an increasing threat facing American metropolises. </span></p> <br /> <p class="Default"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></p> <br /> <p class="Default"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">This research aims to fill this gap in the literature. It examines the impact of an abrupt catastrophic natural disaster on residential property vacancy and abandonment. Using the discrete time hazard model with parcel level land use data in Miami-Dade county, Florida, from two years prior to and eight years after Hurricane Andrew (1991-2000), the analysis shows that Hurricane Andrew triggered wide spread property vacancy and abandonment in its impact area, especially in neighborhoods already in decline. Occurrence of vacancy and abandonment is determined by damage intensity, and the pre-event neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics. The analysis also shows that vacant and abandoned properties exert a negative spillover effect that can induce a succession of vacancy and abandonment over space and time. This research concludes with a discussion about its theoretical relevance and planning implications regarding neighborhood transition and disaster recovery. <br /> <br /> Zhang, Yang.<span>  </span>"Will Natural Disasters Accelerate Neighborhood Decline?"<span>  </span>Paper to be presented at the annual conference for the Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning, Salt Lake City, Utah, <strong><span style="font-weight: normal;">October 13-16, 2011</span></strong></span></p></div>

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