As aviation becomes increasingly accessible in all parts of
the world, future Journeys will increasingly be made by air particularly to and
from emerging markets. According to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF)
in the next 20 years (2013-2032), air traffic will grow at 4.7 per cent annually
requiring over 29,220 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at nearly
US$4.4 trillion. Some 28,350 of these are passenger aircraft valued at US$4.1
trillion. Of these, some 10,400 will replace existing aircraft with more
efficient ones. With today’s fleet of 17,740 aircraft, it means that by 2032,
the worldwide fleet will double to nearly 36,560 aircraft.
Economic growth, growing middle classes, affordability, ease
of travel, urbanisation, tourism, and migration are some factors increasing
connectivity between people and regions and how often they travel. Increasing
urbanisation will lead to a doubling of mega cities from 42 today to 89 by 2032,
and 99 per cent of the world’s long-haul traffic will be between or through
these.
Colin Bennett on 02 Dec 14"Some of Lectromec's conclusions from the data review: One would typically anticipate a high number of failures at the beginning and end of an aircraft's life cycle (component life cycle article here), but incidents for aircraft with less than 10k hours represent only 7% of all reported incidents. Many of the aircraft individually reviewed in the 30 - 40k cycle range were 8 - 10 years old with about 10k cycles. Date of aircraft entering service is not readily available with the data (to be included in future data reviews). If this assumption holds, then most wire incidents around the time of the first aircraft D-check. The most common system to be reported is the emergency path lighting system. Many of the EWIS errors were found during routine service checks. The hazard of these EWIS failures to the aircraft/crew is not easily ascertained from many of the reports. Of the 725 records reviewed: 25 reports identified shorting. 15 reports including detection of smoke - 8 of these were identified as faulty smoke detectors. 5 reports including mention of electrical arcing There were some incidents that were reported to have included smoke/fire. An example of this is the following: "
