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Olivier Masson

Hebei Dawufeng Copper temporarily suspends wirerod production - 0 views

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    Xinxing Zhunguan, a Zhejiang-based manufacturer of copper wirerod, plans to increase production at its facility to 165,000t in 2013, up by 10% from 150,000t in 2012. Despite low profitability at Chinese wirerod producers, an official at the company said Xinxing Zhunguan still plans to increase output in 2013 in order to enhance competitiveness. The company said it expects orders to be subdued in the run up to the Chinese Lunar New Year, but then expects a strong rebound after the holiday period. This is consistent with another report on 11th January from Reuters which cited several Chinese copper traders as expecting the period between now and the holiday to be quiet, followed by a strong rebound.
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    Jiangsu Jiangrun Copper Co. Ltd, a large Chinese copper wirerod producer, is planning to increase production of copper wirerod to 500,000t in 2013, up from 280,000t in 2012, according to an official from the company. The official said copper wirerod demand was weak in 2012, and that the company's output fell by 68,000t from 2011. The official said Jiangsu Jiangrun has invested in a new copper wirerod project which will come online from June 2013, giving the company another 350,000t/y of capacity, which will take total capacity to 750,000t/y.
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    According to a survey from Asian Metal, Chinese wirerod capacity is expected to expand by 2.78Mt in 2013. Data published with the report showed that 570,000t of new wirerod production capacity will come online in Q1, followed by another 500,000t in Q2. By the end of the year this will be joined by another 1.71Mt of production capacity. The report cited Chinese local governments' desire to expand GDP growth, as well as the intention of individual companies to grow large enough to list on stock exchanges, as reasons for the rapid expansion in capacity.
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    Anhui Xinke New Material Co. will start production at a new 150,000t/y copper wirerod plant in March, according to an official from the company. The source said that the company is currently in the process of testing the equipment and producing wirerod in small quantities at the site. The official said that since starting construction of the project in November 2011, wirerod demand had become "sluggish" and that processing fees for turning cathode into wirerod had declined. In 2013, the company plans to produce 100,000t of copper wirerod after shutting its old production line which could produce 35,000t/y in early February.
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    Anhui Xinke, the Anhui-based manufacturer of copper wirerod, will put its new 150,000t/y wirerod plant into operation on 1st April, according to a source from the company. The company has invested RMB1.2B (US$191M) in the facility which will operate alongside its existing 35,000t/y facility. The company said that it produced 4,500t of copper wirerod in March, up from 2,500t in February. However, the source said that wirerod trading had slowed down and that it was harder to conclude deals at the moment.
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    According to an official from Chinalco Kunming Copper Co., the Chinese wirerod manufacturer, the company produced 10,000t of copper wirerod in March, up from 7,000t in February. The official said that March's output of wirerod had risen because of a week-long shutdown in February for the Chinese New Year. However, output had still fallen short of the company's 13,000t target. Chinalco Kunming plans to produce 150,000t of wirerod in 2013, utilising around 68% of its 220,000t/y capacity. According to a report from Asian Metal, the company has recently settled its long-term charges for processing 8.0mm wirerod at RMB1,150/t (US$183/t).
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    Wirerod production at Hebei Dawufeng Copper has been temporarily suspended since early April in order to carry out maintenance. The company elected to halt production for a month in order to carry out equipment maintenance, owing to the currently sluggish wirerod market. Production at the plant, which has a wirerod production capacity of 100,000 t/y is scheduled to re-start in early May.
Colin Bennett

Third quarter 2008 operations review - Rio Tinto - 0 views

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    "In the near term, the Chinese economy is pausing for breath. China is not completely insulated from an OECD recession and we will see an impact on Chinese exports. However, the near term slowdown of growth is substantially due to tightening of monetary policy introduced by the Chinese government last year in order to tackle inflation. Furthermore, we expect third quarter economic data to show an exaggerated slowdown, reflecting the postponement of projects during the Olympics. Looking further out, Chinese GDP will remain largely driven by the domestic economy and we expect industrialisation and urbanisation to continue apace with strengthening demand across a range of Rio Tinto products.
Wade Ren

The end of Bretton Woods 2? - 0 views

  • The Bretton Woods 2 system – where China and then the oil-exporters provided (subsidized) financing to the US to sustain their exports – will come close to ending, at least temporarily. If the US and Europe are not importing much, the rest of the world won’t be exporting much.
  • And rather than ending with a whimper, Bretton Woods 2 may end with a bang. In some sense Bretton Woods 2 has been on life support for a while now. China’s recent export growth has depended far more on Europe than on the US. US demand for non-oil imports peaked in 2006. One irony of the past year is that the US was borrowing far more from China that it was buying from China. Campaign rhetoric that the US was paying for Saudi oil with funds borrowed from China isn’t far off – though it leaves out the fact that the US also borrows from Saudi Arabia to pay for Venezuelan, Mexican and Nigerian oil.
  • If Bretton Woods 2 ends in 2009 – if US demand for imports falls sharply in the last part of 2008 and early 2009, bringing the US trade deficit down – it won’t have ended in the way Nouriel and I outlined back in late 2004 and early 2005. We postulated that foreign demand for US debt would dry up – pushing up US Treasury rates and delivering a nasty shock to a housing-centric economy. As Brad DeLong notes, it didn’t quite play out that way. The US and European banking system collapsed before the balance of financial terror collapsed. Dr. DeLong writes: All of us from Lawrence Summers to John Taylor were expecting a very different financial crisis. We were expecting the ‘Balance of Financial Terror’ between Asia and America to collapse and produce chaos. We are not having that financial crisis. Instead we are having a very different financial crisis. Catastrophic failures of risk management throughout the entire banking sector caused a relatively minor collapse in housing prices to freeze up global finance to a degree that has not been seen since the Great Depression. The end result of this crisis though could be rather similar: a sharp contraction in credit, a fall in US economic activity, a fall in US imports and a fall in the amount of foreign financing the US needs.* The US government is (possibly) trying to offset the fall in private demand by borrowing more and spending more — but as of now there is realistic risk that the fall in private activity will trump the fiscal stimulus.
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  • Or, to put it more succinctly, Bretton Woods 2, as it evolved, hinged both on the willingness of foreign central banks to take the currency risk associated with lending to the US at low rates in dollars despite the United States large current account deficit AND the willingness of private financial intermediaries to take the credit risk associated with lending at low rates to highly-indebted US households.
  • But now US financial institutions are neither willing nor able to take on the risk of lending even more to US households. For a while the US government was able to ramp up its lending to households (notably through the Agencies) and in the process effectively take over the function previously performed by the private financial system (over the last four quarters, the flow of funds data indicates that the Agencies provided around $800 billion of net credit to US households). But now the US government is struggling to keep the financial system from collapsing. It doesn’t seem like it will able to avoid a sharp fall in the overall availability of credit.
  • It is now clear how the financial sector kept profits up: it took on more risk, as it shifted from borrowing short to buy safe long-term assets (Treasuries and Agencies) to borrowing short to buy risky long-term assets. Leverage in the system also increased (and for some broker dealers that seems to be an understatement), as more and more financial institutions believed that the US had entered into an era of little macroeconomic or financial volatility. The net result seems to have been a truly explosive concentration of risk in the hands of a core set of financial intermediaries in the US and Europe. Securitization – it seems – actually didn’t disperse risk into the hands of institutions able to handle it.
  • I hope that the process of adjustment now underway isn’t as sharp as I fear. The US economy gradually can shift from producing MBS for sale to US investors flush with cash from the sale of safe securities to China and Saudi Arabia to producing goods and services for export – but it cannot shift from churning out complex debt securities to producing goods and services overnight. Indeed, in a slowing US and global economy, improvements in the US deficit will likely come from faster falls in US imports than in US exports – not from ongoing growth in US exports.
  • But right now it looks like there is a real risk that the adjustment won’t be gradual. And it certainly looks like the flow of Chinese (and Gulf) savings to US households over the past few years has produced one of the largest misallocations of global capital in recent history.
  • US taxpayers are going to be hit with a large tab for the credit risk taken on by undercapitalized financial intermediaries. Chinese taxpayers may get hit with a similar tab for the losses their central bank incurred by overpaying for US and European assets as part of its policy of holding its exchange rate down. The TARP is around 5% of US GDP. There are plausible estimates that China’s currency losses will prove to be of comparable magnitude. Charles Dumas puts the cost at above 5% of GDP: “Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research estimates that China makes 1-2 per cent on its (largely) dollar reserves. It then loses up to 10 per cent on the exchange rate and suffers a Chinese inflation rate of 6 per cent for a total real return in renminbi of about minus 15 per cent. That is a loss of $270bn a year, or a stunning 7-8 per cent of gross domestic product.”
  • Jboss — if some of the Chinese inflow could be redirected into investment in alternative energy, that would indeed be a win/ win. Some infrastructure bank style ideas have promise in my view — basically, the flow that used to go to freddie/ fannie could go to wind farms and the like. I would rather see more adjustment in china (i.e. more investment in Chinese infrastructure) but during the transition, if there is one, to a lower Chinese surplus, redirecting chinese financing toward new energy tech would be offer real benefits.
  • China likes 3rd generation nuclear power. Safe, lower cost than NG or coal, very much lower cost than coal with carbon sequestering, and zero carbon footprint. Wind is about 4X more expensive than our electric costs now. That’s in an area with consistent wind. Solar is worse. I don’t know if we can sucker them into investing in our technical fairy tales. Here’s a easy primer on 3rd gen nukes. http://nuclearinfo.net/Nuclearpower/WebHomeCostOfNuclearPower
    • Wade Ren
       
      is this true?
  • btw, solar thermal installations are so easy & affordable to retrofit onto existing structures, it’s amazing that there aren’t more of them here…until you realize that they work to decentralize energy. cedric — china is already doing it in china. they are way ahead of the curve over there. my partner brought back some photos of shanghai — rows of middle class homes each with a small solar panel on top. and that’s just the tip of the iceberg — an architect friend just came back from beijing and wants to move to china (he’s into designing self-powering structures and is incredibly frustrated by the bureaucracy and cost-prohibitive measures in the US).
  • I went to engineering school right after the Arab Oil Embargo, and alternative energy was a hot topic then. All the same stuff you hear of nowadays. They even offered entire courses on it , which I took. Then my first mini career was in the power plant biz, before Volker killed it with interest rates and the Saudies killed any interest in alt. energy with their big oil field discovery. For the last 5 years I’ve been researching what’s changed, and it is frighteningly little. Solar cells are still expensive and only have a 15% conversion efficiency. They developed the new cost reduced film technology, but that knocks down efficiency to 7%. Wind power works where there is wind constantly. Generators are mature technology and are already 90 some percent efficient. Geothermal, tidal, ect. work where they are available. Looks like coal gasification and synfuel is out because it makes too much CO2. Good news is 3rd gen nuclear is way better than 1st gen plants. Hybrid cars are good, and battery technology is finally getting barely good enough for all electric cars to be practical.
  • According to news report today, Japan’s trade surplus is less than 1 billion $ in September 08, a whopping 94% decrease compared to September 07. Does it imply that going forward Japan can not buy as much treasury as before?
xxx xxx

China To Subsidize Wind Turbines - 0 views

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    China will begin subsidizing the production of wind power turbines, according to an announcement made last Friday. The subsidy will only be available to Chinese majority-owned turbine manufacturers, who will be eligible to receive $88 per kilowatt for the first 50 units capable of generating at least 1.5 megawatts of power. In addition, the subsidy can only be used for research and development. This is the first Chinese subsidy specifically focusing on the wind power industry and it is meant to make Chinese companies more competitive with turbine makers like GE (NYSE: GE) in the U.S., Vestas Wind Systems (VWS.CO) in the Netherlands and India's Suzlon (SUZL.BO).
Panos Kotseras

China - Copper consumption - 0 views

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    The Chinese government is supporting the copper industry by eliminating taxes on copper concentrate imports and finished copper products exports. China is the world's top copper consumer and according to Antaike Chinese copper consumption in 2009 will grow by 2.1%, revised down from its previous forecast of more than 6%. The duty-free trading policies will benefit copper smelters and fabricators, however, weak global demand will continue to take its toll on Chinese exports.
Glycon Garcia

Brazil hands Chinese state-owned company 2GW deal | Log in to Windpower Monthly - 0 views

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    "Brazil hands Chinese state-owned company 2GW deal Wu Qi, Windpower Monthly Magazine, 14 December 2010, 11:13am BRAZIL: Chinese state-owned turbine manufacturer Xuji Wind Power is to develop 2GW of wind farms in the southern Brazilian state of Santa Catarina. "
Matthew Wonnacott

Chinese wire and cable producers restock before Chinese New Year - 0 views

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    A recent survey by the Shanghai Metals Market of 21 major Chinese electrical wire and cable producers, with a total capacity of 990,000t/y, showed that operating rates in January decreased to 69.73%, down 6.86 percentage points from December. The survey cited a lull in major contracts for power cables prior to Chinese New Year as the reason for sluggish demand. However, stabilisation in the demand for enamelled wire was noted in January, whilst demand for electrical wire was estimated to have picked up. The SMM survey revealed that producer's inventories of raw materials had picked up prior to the Chinese New Year Holiday, with producer's raw materials holdings as a percentage of production up 9.46 percentage points since December, to 34.58%. The survey suggested easier cash flows and expectations of future copper price rises were reasons for the increase.
Colin Bennett

"Chinese aluminium producers are now making operating losses" - 0 views

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    Mr Albanese said there had been a marked reduction in Chinese commodity demand from the overheated levels of 2007 and added that the "vast majority of Chinese aluminium producers are now making operating losses."
Panos Kotseras

Germany - Aurubis expects Chinese copper imports to rise in H2 2011 - 1 views

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    According to Aurubis, Chinese copper imports may increase in H2 2011, after the decline seen in H1. May imports contracted to 149,235t in May 2011 from 160,236t in the previous month. The figure was also down by 46.7% from the same period a year ago. Aurubis commented that Chinese copper demand was met by stocks in warehouses, which have been heavily down due to recent consumption. The European copper producer said that the fact that Chinese IP in May was strong is an indication of strong copper demand.
Matthew Wonnacott

China's year-to-date imports of copper and copper semis falls 27.8% - 0 views

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    Chinese imports of unwrought copper and copper semi-manufactured products fell 38.5% y-o-y in February to 298,102t, although this was partially distorted by the timing of this year's Chinese New Year holiday. Year-to-date imports of unwrought copper, a measure less distorted by the timing of the Chinese New Year holiday, fell by 27.8% y-o-y from the same period a year earlier to 649,062t. According to a report from Reuters, Chinese importers have signed less annual contracted volumes in 2013 and imports of refined copper are expected to be at lower levels for the remainder of the year.
Matthew Wonnacott

CRU analyst sees Chinese consolidation and substitution weighing on demand - 0 views

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    An official from SDI La Farga LLC's said on 11th December that the company is producing limited amounts of wirerod at its new US $39M plant in New Haven, Indiana. The new facility, a joint venture between Spain's La Farga Group and Steel Dynamics Inc, produces wirerod from number 2 scrap copper rather than cathode. The company official said "we've produced quality rod and are in the process of getting approval of customers and we have done so with several customers." He added that plant officials are "waiting for more customer orders to start producing more".
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    According to a US-based cathode seller, US downstream users of copper cathode are hesitant to sign long-term contracts in 2013, believing that there will be sufficient cathode available on the market for last-minute purchases. The report also cited a downstream user as saying that he believes that absent of transport costs, premiums on annual contracts might have been lower in 2013 compared to 2012. However, the report cited the downstream user as saying he preferred to take cathode from merchants due to the "more lenient" payment terms, whereby he received 10-30 days net credit on annual deals, as opposed to cash-on-payment for spot deals.
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    Quanshun copper announced on 8th December that it has begun production at its new 100,000t/y semis plant in Xinxiang City, Henan province. The new facility is capable of producing 50,000t/y of oxygen-free copper wirerod, 20,000t/y of copper bar, 10,000t/y of transposed conductors (copper strips) and 10,000t/y of other specialist copper semis for the electronics industry. The new production capacity, which was built at a cost of RMB700M (USD112M), is aimed at serving the Chinese domestic market, however, a source at the company did not rule out exporting in the coming years.
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    According to an official from the Delixi group, the company plans to build a new 400,000t/y copper wirerod plant in Zhangpu town, Jiangsu province. The total investment in the new plant will be around RMB3.6bn (US$573M), although the official declined to disclose the timeline for the project. According to the company's website, it specialises in the manufacturing of electric power transmission and distribution appliances.
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    Anhui Jincheng, the Shanghai-listed producer of copper PSSF, said on 26th March that it produced 93,872t of copper PSSF in 2012, a 13% y-o-y increase from 2011. Despite the increase in output, the company made a net loss of RMB57M in 2012 from a profit of RMB24M in 2011 (loss of US$9M from a profit of US$3.8M). Remarking on the results the company said that "uncertainties in the global economy, the euro debt crisis, plus the weak Chinese economy, has negatively impacted demand by the downstream processing sector last year."
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    Talking at the annual CESCO/CRU World Copper Conference, CRU Principal Consultant Vivienne Lloyd said that up to 2Mt of copper demand could be lost over the next five years due to substitution and consolidation amongst Chinese semis producers. Lloyd said that the areas under the greatest threat from substitution are the automotive wiring harness sector and the HVAC sector. However, CRU believes that the aluminium/copper price ratio is likely to have peaked in 2012 at around 4:1, and will fall back gradually to 2017 reaching 3:1, which should relieve some of the substitution pressures.
Matthew Wonnacott

Henan Golden Dragon to open a new high precision copper tube plant - 0 views

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    Yangzhou Baosheng Copper Industry, a large Chinese manufacturer of wire and cable, announced on 12th December that it had placed an order with Germany's SMS Meer for a CONTIROD system to be installed at its plant in Baoying, Jiangsu province. The new system, which has a capacity of 48t/h, will come into action in 2014 and will enable the company to expand its range of products.
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    Guangyuan Copper Co., a Chinese producer of oxygen-free copper wirerod, announced on 25th December that it has fully opened its new facility based in the Yingtan Hi-Tech Industry Zone in Jiangsu, China. The new facility, which has been running on a trial basis since September 2012, is expected to produce 10,000t/y of high purity oxygen free copper wirerod.
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    According to data from the Jiangxi Commission of Industry and Information, 2012 output of copper semis in the Chinese province of Jiangxi was 2.09Mt, a 24.5% increase on 2011. According to the Commission there are 286 copper companies with revenue above RMB5M (US$795,000) in Jiangxi, including China's largest integrated smelter and semis producer Jiangxi Copper Co.
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    Chinalco Shanghai Copper Co, a subsidiary of China Aluminium Group Corporation, will produce 45,000t of flat-rolled copper plate and strip in 2013, according to a source from the company. The company has copper plate and strip production capacity of around 70,000t/y according to Antaike, suggesting a utilisation rate of around 64% for the year. Chinalco Shanghai Copper Co also produces copper foil at its Baoshan-based production facility and currently has a capacity of 20,000t/y.
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    According to an annual survey from Antaike, operating rates at Chinese copper fabricators were on average 2.66 percentage points lower in 2012 than in 2011. The sector that saw the largest slow down in utilisation was the copper tube sector, down 7.27 percentage points in 2012, due to low operating rates in air conditioner sector denting the demand for copper tube in China. Wire manufacturers and foil manufacturers were reported to have fared better in 2012, with utilisation rates rising modestly.
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    Henan-based Golden Dragon Precise Copper Tube (Henan Golden Dragon), the world's largest manufacturer of commercial copper tube, will open a new 30,000t/y high precision copper tube factory in July 2013. Henan Golden Dragon begun production of the facility in May 2012 and have invested a total of RMB 380M (USD60.5M). The factory will produce high precision copper tube.
William Pratt

Chinese semis imports down 12% y-o-y - 0 views

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    Chinese imports of unwrought and semi-finished copper products for the period January to July were down 12% y-o-y, to 1.51 million tonnes, according to preliminary data from Chinese Customs. The fall comes despite a 7% month-on-month increase in July, which was the result of a decrease in the price differential between Chinese and international copper prices. Scrap imports in the first 7 months of 2008 were up 14.5% y-o-y, to 3.42 million tonnes.
Colin Bennett

Strong copper, steel and iron ore data from China - are they sustainable? - 0 views

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    The world's metals producers are still looking to China as the panacea for all ills with the often expressed hope that the country's need to support the domestic metals smelting, refining and steel industries will be the saviour of this sector and supply sufficient demand to support prices in the West. Consequently Chinese data are followed intensely and the latest information suggests that copper, iron ore and steel demand are holding up well - indeed increasing substantially - while aluminium is flat and zinc and lead suffering. But Chinese data requires interpretation and can be misleading as pointed out by Macquarie's Bonnie Liu in her latest China Commodities Weekly research note, and she concludes that there has to be some doubt that the latest extremely strong figures can be maintained. The notes below are abstracted from Macquarie's latest China Commodities Weekly and give us some considerable food for thought.
Panos Kotseras

China - Copper tube manufacturers operate at low capacity due to weak demand - 0 views

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    According to data released by the Shanghai-based nonferrous metals data provider Metalease, 18 major copper tube makers in China were operating at 35% capacity in January, in response to plummeting demand. Business activity has also been affected by the Chinese New Year festivities. The plants, which have a combined capacity of 978,000 t per year, consumed 28,000 t of refined copper in January compared to their consumption capacity of 81,500 t per month. Even though the Chinese government has increased the export tax rebate for copper tubes of diameter of less than 25 mm, the 18 copper tube producers exported only 21% of their total output in January, compared with 26% in December.
Panos Kotseras

China - Copper and copper products imports in February rose by 42% m-o-m - 0 views

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    Chinese imports of copper and copper products in February increased by 42% m-o-m to 329,311 tonnes. Bloomberg reported that this is the highest increase in inbound shipments since 2003. LME copper prices have jumped by 19% since the beginning of the year, reaching US$3,667 per tonne on March 10th. Copper prices have been supported by optimism regarding the Chinese and the US government spending packages. Infrastructure projects will boost the demand for copper semis, especially cables and tubes.
Panos Kotseras

China - Copper demand may grow strongly in Q4 - 0 views

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    According to a statement made by JP Morgan Securities, copper demand in China may experience strong growth in Q4. This argument is based on the fact that the large amount of accumulated copper inventories in China will be processed. As a result, copper stockpiles will run down. The forecast projected an annual growth in Chinese copper demand of 7-8% for 2009, backed by robust demand in power infrastructure. Chinese copper imports in April reached 400,000t, an increase of 7% compared with March.
Panos Kotseras

China - The copper market - 0 views

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    According to Antaike, Chinese refined copper production in November amounted to 405,257t. For the 11 months to November the figure was 3,778,095t, an increase of 8% y-o-y. Chinese copper semis production in November reached 221,091t; for the year to November copper semis output totalled 2,432,149t, up by 17% compared with the same period in 2008. In addition, the customs office reported that refined copper imports in November increased by 15% m-o-m to 194,388t.
Colin Bennett

Is Chinese Economy Behind the Commodities Crush? - 0 views

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    "Warburg Pincus Senior Advisor Bill Janeway and Bloomberg Intelligence's Kenneth Hoffman discusses commodities, oil and the Chinese economy on "Bloomberg Surveillance.""
Colin Bennett

Pakistan infrastructure - 0 views

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    "The Chinese government and banks will finance Chinese companies to build $45.6 billion worth of energy and infrastructure projects in Pakistan over the next six years, according to new details of the deal seen by Reuters on Friday"
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