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THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index dropped 2 percent to 5,739 in September, influenced by higher interest rates impacting stock prices and investor sentiment, according to STR, although the hotel stocks outperformed their relative benchmark. That is the second month of decline in the index following a surge in July. "Hotel stocks declined in September, yet they exceeded their relative benchmarks," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Both the S&P 500 and the RMZ recorded their poorest monthly performance this year due to elevated interest rates affecting stock prices and investor sentiment. Hotels likely gained from sustained, albeit gradual, RevPAR growth throughout the month. Year-to-date, the hotel brand sub-index stands at 23 percent, whereas the Hotel REIT sub-index lags at negative 1.5 percent."

EXTENDED-STAY HOTELS continue to outperform other types of hotels on a regular basis, even during the pandemic. Now, large hotel companies are expanding their interests in the segment. Choice Hotels International is seeing strong performance and growth in its extended-stay brands, and Wyndham Hotels & Resorts recently announced plans to launch a new extended-stay brand this year, its first in the economy segment. Coming off a good year Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR all exceeded pre-pandemic levels for Choice's established extended-stay brands, the economy brands WoodSpring Suites and Suburban Extended Stay as well as midscale brand MainStay Suites, according to the company. The company's new midscale Everhome Suites, launched in early 2020, also saw strong interest by franchisees. The overall performance is similar to what the brands saw in 2020.

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THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index dropped 2.4 percent to 5,600, influenced by increasing interest rates affecting both real estate stocks and investor sentiment, according to STR. Moreover, U.S. hotel demand saw a 1.3 percent decrease in October, linked in part to a calendar shift. This marks the third consecutive month of stock decline after a surge in July. "Hotel stocks declined for the third straight month in October, aligning with broader market trends," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Elevated interest rates continued to drive performance, with real estate stocks bearing the brunt. Hotel REITs stood out as relative outperformers. The global hotel brands experienced a roughly 2 percent decrease, closely mirroring the S&P 500's retreat in October." In October, the Baird/STR Index fell behind the S&P 500, down 2.2 percent, but surpassed the MSCI US REIT Index, down 4.5 percent.

IHG HOTELS & RESORTS is set to launch a new brand targeted at midscale conversions, the company said during its first-half earnings call. Although the company has kept the brand's name under wraps, more than 100 hotels and their owners have displayed strong interest in the new brand. IHG, has previously established brands such as Holiday Inn and Holiday Inn Express in the upper-midscale category. It expects that the forthcoming brand will advance the company's growth within a $14 billion segment exclusive to the U.S. market. "As we expand our brand portfolio, we're pleased to announce an upcoming launch of a new brand aimed at midscale conversion opportunities," said Elie Maalouf, IHG's CEO. "Conversions offer substantial growth potential, constituting approximately 40 percent of global first-half openings and signings, reflecting owners' increasing eagerness to swiftly benefit from IHG's reach and enterprise. We're thrilled that over 100 hotels have already expressed definite interest in this new brand."

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index rose 10.5 percent to 6,760 in December, according to STR. Moreover, the stock index closed the year with a 38.4 percent gain in 2023, driven by a favorable interest rate outlook boosting investor sentiment and valuation multiples. "Hotel stocks - like the broader market - finished 2023 on a high note as the 'soft landing' narrative and lower interest rate outlook continued to boost investor sentiment and valuation multiples," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Both the hotel brands and hotel REITs were up more than 10 percent in December and outperformed their respective benchmarks. For the year, the hotel REITs' 19 percent gain more than doubled the return of real estate stocks broadly, while the hotel brands' 44 percent increase nearly doubled the performance of the S&P 500." The U.S. hotel industry closed the year on a strong note, said Amanda Hite, president of STR.

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SIX PROPERTIES SIGNED with hihotels by Hospitality International in the second quarter of the year, all under Asian American owners. The new hotels are in Texas, Indiana, Maryland, Oregon and Pennsylvania. They join four other properties that, in the first quarter, joined hihotels' five brands; Red Carpet Inn, Scottish Inns, Master Hosts Inns, Downtowner Inns and Passport Inn. The new properties are: A Red Carpet Inn in Leavenworth, Indiana, owned by Katen Patel. A Red Carpet Inn in College Park, Maryland, former Econo Lodge, owned by Naginbhai Patel. A Red Carpet Inn in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, former Travelodge, owned by Mahendra Patel. A Red Carpet Inn in Lester, Pennsylvania, former Econo Lodge, owned by Vinod Patel/Bharat 'Raj' Naik/Arav Naik. A Scottish Inns in Ashland, Oregon, former Rodeway Inn, owned by Bharat Lad. A Scottish Inns & Suites in Spring, Texas, former Econo Lodge, owned by Ketan Rama. The new hotels join 18 properties throughout the U.S. added in 2020, most owned by Asian American hoteliers, as are the four added this year. More hoteliers are expressing interest in the brand, said Guimbellot.

While we don't know what will happen next, the past several months has shown us that the need to get out and travel is stronger than ever. However, as the labor and staffing crisis continues, some hoteliers struggle to accommodate the uptick in travel. Corporate travel and industry events and the need to meet face-to-face will continue to grow, so now is the time to focus on getting staff ready to welcome back corporate travelers who haven't traveled in 18 months. Taking notes from the entertainment industry One interesting tactic that the hospitality industry should take note of is the way the entertainment industry has handled the return of movies in theaters. If you went to the movies over the summer, you may have seen how the industry pulled together to thank movie-goers for coming back to the theater. Galaxy Theaters CEO came onto the big screen to thank the audience and welcome them back. Regal did something similar. Even more compelling were the messages from directors such as John Krasinski ahead of Quiet Place II and Lin-Manuel Miranda ahead of In the Heights. These two films led the charge in releasing their content to the big screen. In doing so, they took the time to record a message to thank the audience for coming back and for supporting the industry. This strategy works because the theater has a captive audience. After all, unless you are late to the film, or getting popcorn, you are sitting there in anticipation of seeing a movie on the big screen after nearly 18 months of Netflix and microwaved popcorn.

THE HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY needs to re-focus its efforts to meet future staffing requirements if it is to increase interest by job seekers, according to consulting firm HVS. At the moment, the hospitality industry is a jobseeker's market and likely to stay that way for the next year or two. Hence, industry leaders should adapt to survive, said Court Williams, CEO of HVS Executive Search in New York in an article titled 'How to Resolve the Current State of Emergency in Hospitality Employment'. Williams stated that "successful recovery from the pandemic will depend on revising every aspect of sourcing, attracting, compensating, incentivizing, and retaining workers." "The hospitality industry has seen a decrease in staff as many people have found alternate career paths as a result of the impacts of COVID-19. Historical talent shortages are being exacerbated by staff quitting in droves as the world returns to work," Williams said in the article. "Now, the onus is on companies to show employees why they should apply for jobs or stay in their current positions."

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index rose in March, continuing a trend from the previous month. Still, continued growth remains at risk by factors such as inflation and political unrest. The index increased 2.2 percent in March after rising 4.1 percent in February. It rose 2.4 percent year to date through the first three months of 2022. However, Baird/STR fell behind both the S&P 500, up 3.6 percent in March, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which rose 5.9 percent. The hotel brand sub-index rose 1.4 percent from February, while the Hotel REIT sub-index jumped 5.1 percent. "Hotel stocks increased in March but underperformed their benchmarks as stock market volatility eased and geopolitical concerns did not worsen," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Underlying hotel fundamentals continued to improve in March, and the outlook appears more favorable today than just one month ago despite all of the background noise in the stock market and with interest rates on the rise. Higher gas prices and heightened concerns about a slower growth backdrop have been topical with investors lately, but broader travel momentum and pent-up demand should keep the lodging recovery going over the near term, in our opinion."

REVPAR FOR U.S extended-stay economy, mid-scale and upscale segments is recovering back to pre-pandemic levels, according to a report from consulting firm The Highland Group. Total extended-stay hotel occupancy is very close to the first quarter levels reported in 2016 and 2017 but below its peak years since 2015. "Overall, first quarter extended-stay hotel ADR was the highest ever reported in 2023 and all three segments have more than fully recovered their 2019 nominal ADR values," the report said. In its "2023 First Quarter U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels Report," Highland said the economy and mid-price extended-stay hotels made considerable gains in RevPAR relative to corresponding classes of all hotels between 2019 and 2023. Due to high concentration of rooms in urban markets, upscale extended-stay hotels have seen RevPAR decline slightly relative to all upscale class hotels. However, the gap is expected to narrow as urban markets make a full recovery, the report noted. "Rising interest rates and construction costs, as well as tightening loan underwriting, means extended-stay supply growth should be relatively low nationally for two to three years. Assuming the overall hotel industry does not endure a correction, extended-stay hotels should set more new performance records during the near term at least," says Mark Skinner, partner at The Highland Group.

HILTON HAS LAUNCHED a new extended-stay brand, Project H3, designed to meet the needs of the rapidly expanding $300 billion workforce travel market, looking for apartment-style accommodations for 20 nights or more. Launching in the U.S. as Hilton navigates the final stages of the trademark process, this lower midscale, extended-stay brand is the newest addition to Hilton's portfolio, the company said in a statement. Hilton is engaged in more than 100 active development conversations with many owners expressing interest in multiple locations. According to the statement, the product provides a foundation for the long stay, allowing guests to make the most out of every day, and delivers an exciting investment option for developers looking to diversify their portfolio under the Hilton name. "Project H3 is perfectly positioned to serve the unique needs of the long-stay traveler, thanks to its innovative design, strong value proposition for our owners and of course, the hospitality our team members offer every day," said Chris Nassetta, Hilton president and CEO. "We aim to serve any guest, anywhere in the world, for any travel need they may have, and this new brand represents a greater opportunity for us to grow our portfolio while providing the reliable and friendly service our customers expect from Hilton." Hilton's in-house research shows long-stay travelers, including traveling nurses, military personnel, and those experiencing workforce relocations, place quality time and comfort above all else. In addition, those looking for a long stay will book an average of 20 or more nights and desire a reliable home base that allows them to maintain their routines while delivering simplicity, consistency and convenience.

NOBLE INVESTMENT GROUP signed an agreement with Choice Hotels International to develop nine WoodSpring Suites hotels in Georgia and South Carolina in two years. The companies say the agreement represents an increased institutional interest in the economy extended-stay brand. Noble, led by Mit Shah as founder and CEO, is a real estate investment manager specializing in select-service and extended-stay travel and hospitality with over $5 billion in assets. "Noble continues to add substantial scale to our extended-stay travel and hospitality platform," said Ben Brunt, Noble's chief investment officer. "WoodSpring Suites has an outstanding track record of high performance across economic cycles, and we are pleased to welcome these new investments into our portfolio."

DESPITE PROJECTIONS OF persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE's November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8 percent increase in RevPAR in 2023. This is up from CBRE's previous forecast of a 5.6 percent increase in RevPAR for 2023. Propelling CBRE's increased outlook for RevPAR is an expected 4.2 percent rise in ADR, driven in part by the continuation of above long-run average inflation. For 2023, CBRE is forecasting the Consumer Price Index in the U.S. to increase by 3.5 percent year over year. Inflation continues to have a mixed impact on the hotel industry, bolstering top-line growth while pressuring margins. Supply and Demand Inflation is also impacting development activity. The combination of rising construction material costs, a tight labor market, and high interest rates will serve to keep supply growth over the next five years 40 percent lower than historical trends. Instead of construction, we expect cash flows in the near term to be focused on debt reductions, renovations and remodels given the backlog of Capex that built up during the pandemic. Given its forecast for a 0.2 percent decline in 2023 gross domestic product, CBRE lowered its expectations for demand growth from 3.3 percent in their August 2022 forecasts to 2.9 percent in the November update. With the projected supply increase remaining at 1.2 percent for 2023, the net result is a reduction in CBRE's occupancy growth estimate for the year to 1.6 percent, down from the 2 percent increase previously forecast. The lowering of occupancy expectations will somewhat offset the enhanced outlook for ADR growth.

HOTEL INVESTMENT AND management company Banyan Group has announced that its $35 million Banyan Lodging Enhanced Value Fund has been fully subscribed. The final participants were domestic and foreign families, a statement said. The BLEV, or "Believe" fund offers an opportunity for investors to purchase hotels that have been impacted by the on-going COVID-19 crisis, the statement added. "Interest in our BLEV fund has risen steadily since our original announcement earlier this year, as evidenced by how quickly the raise was completed, to the point where we now actually are over-subscribed," said Rakesh Chauhan, managing partner and CEO, Banyan Investment Group. "We already have our sights on several respected hotels in strong markets with high barriers to entry and multiple demand generators to help offset any potential economic headwinds that could arise in the future. We look forward to a successful run with our partners and fully expect this to be a profitable endeavor for all involved."

The Best Western Gallup West is now open in Gallup, New Mexico. It is owned by Murad Mohsin. The 60-room hotel is near Veteran Memorial Pillars, Red Rock State Park, the Gallup Flea Market Fire Rock Navajo Casino and the Navajo Nation Museum. It is two hours from Albuquerque, New Mexico. Amenities include an indoor pool, fitness center, spa and free parking. "We are very excited to join Best Western and to have access to the brand's best-in-class support and resources that will strengthen our property and guest service," said Murad Mohsin, owner of the Best Western Gallup West. "Our hotel offers something for everyone and is near some of Gallup's most interesting sights. We look forward to providing the comfort travelers are looking for in our quaint town situated off Route 66."

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ACCORDING TO THE March 2022 edition of CBRE's Hotel Horizons national forecast report, the total revenue for a typical U.S. hotel is not expected to return to pre-COVID 2019 nominal dollars until 2023. Accordingly, hotel owners and operators continue to seek ways to control expenses, and that can include property taxes. One potential reduction opportunity is property taxes, according to an article from Robert Mandelbaum, director of research information services for CBRE Hotels Research, and Mark Whitney, managing director of CBRE's Property & Transaction Tax Services platform. Based on a sample of 3,400 hotels from CBRE's Trends in the Hotel Industry database, U.S. hotel property tax expenditures declined by 13 percent from 2020 to 2021. This decline put 2021 property taxes 9.9 percent below 2019 levels. Unfortunately, this compares unfavorably to the 41.3 percent decline in revenues and 57.4 percent falloff in profits during the same period. For this analysis, profits are defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or EBITDA. Relationship to Profits Compared with other forms of real estate, hotel financial performance is relatively volatile. Because of the lack of long-term leases, hotel revenues and profits will react almost instantaneously to changes in the economy. This was evident during 2020 when we observed a sudden 64.3 percent drop in revenues along with a 109.4 percent decline in EBITDA in reaction to the pandemic.