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U.S. HOTEL REVPAR is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by improving group business, inbound international travel, and traditional transient business demand, according to CBRE. This follows a strong performance in 2023 that muted the new forecast in some areas. The research firm forecasted a 3 percent increase in RevPAR growth in 2024, with occupancy improving by 45 basis points and ADR increasing by 2.3 percent. It indicates ongoing recovery of the lodging industry, with RevPAR in 2024 expected to surpass 2019 levels by 13.2 percent, CBRE Hotels said in a statement. CBRE's baseline forecast expects 1.6 percent GDP growth and 2.5 percent average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, the economy's strength will directly impact the lodging industry's performance, the statement said. "We expect RevPAR growth to be slower in the first quarter due to last year's strong performance, but to reach its peak in the third quarter driven by the influx of inbound international travelers during the busy summer season," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Urban and airport locations should particularly benefit from group and inbound international travel, as well as the normalization of leisure travel."

U.S. HOTELS ARE likely to report improved RevPAR growth in the second half of the year, following a weak first quarter, according to CBRE. International tourism and other economic factors are expected to provide a boost to performance. A 2 percent increase in RevPAR growth is forecasted for 2024, down from the 3 percent estimated in February. RevPAR is now expected to grow by 3 percent for the remainder of the year, driven by international tourists, holiday travel, and limited supply growth. It is projecting GDP growth of 2.3 percent and average inflation of 3.2 percent in 2024. The performance of the lodging industry is closely tied to the strength of the economy, as there is typically a strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, CBRE said in a statement.

STR AND TOURISM ECONOMICS have increased year-over-year growth projections for ADR and RevPAR in the final revision of the U.S. hotel forecast for 2023. While some factors, such as higher interest rates and more restrictive lending, may impact the economy, their effect on the travel industry is not expected to be strong. In 2023, RevPAR saw a 0.3 percentage point increase, propelled by a 0.6ppt rise in ADR growth, according to STR and TE. Meanwhile, recent RevPAR trends affirm rate as the predominant performance driver. Occupancy was downgraded by 0.2ppts, STR and TE said in a statement. Growth projections for key performance metrics in 2024 remained flat from the previous forecast, reflecting the stabilization of long-term average trends.

DRIVEN BY STRONGER-than-expected demand and moderate supply, CBRE has raised its forecast for hotel performance again this year, resulting in increased occupancy. CBRE revised its forecast for 2023 RevPAR to $97.89, up 6 percent year-over-year and an increase of $0.43 rise from the previous forecast. This positive revision is based on a 65-basis-point increase in expected occupancy compared to the previous forecast issued in February, CBRE said in a statement. Furthermore, the ADR is projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2023, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.2 percent. According to CBRE Hotels Research, this is primarily due to slightly lower inflation expectations and a higher proportion of group travel and shoulder-period demand, which typically have lower rates. CBRE's baseline scenario forecast envisages an average GDP growth of 0.8 percent and average inflation of 4.6 percent in 2023. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, changes in the economic outlook will directly impact the performance of the lodging industry, CBRE noted. "We are already starting to see signs that the easing of travel restrictions in Japan and China, combined with continued improvements in group and independent business demand, are bolstering demand heading into the heavy summer travel season," said Rachael Rothman, head of hotel research & data analytics at CBRE.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE saw a significant increase in the first week of December compared to the previous week, with improvements in hotel occupancy, ADR and RevPAR, according to CoStar. Year-over-year results also reflected positive trends. Occupancy rose to 58.7 percent for the week ending Dec. 9, up from the previous week's 54.2 percent, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 1.1 percent. ADR increased to $153.36, compared to the previous week's $144.88, showing a 4.5 percent uptick from the prior year. RevPAR also soared to $89.98, compared to the prior week's $78.54, indicating a 3.3 percent decrease from the corresponding period in 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Boston saw the largest year-over-year occupancy increase, surging by 4.1 percent to 72.7 percent. Helped by Miami Art Week and Art Basel, Miami reported significant increases in ADR, soaring 48.8 percent to $314.55, and RevPAR, jumping 67 percent to $262.16.

VERAKIN CAPITAL, A real estate investment group, exceeded its $350 million investment milestone in the first quarter of this year. The company has made collective investments in three hotel properties that are currently in various stages of development; the Moxy in downtown Atlanta, Georgia; Hampton Inn/Home 2 in downtown Nashville, Tennessee; and Courtyard by Marriott in Pittsburg, California, the company said in a statement. Verakin, led by partners Rupesh and Bimal Patel and Hiten Suraj, is the lead developer of the Courtyard by Marriott, while the company is co-investing in the other two projects alongside RevPar Development and Emerge Hospitality Group, according to the statement. RevPar Development is a privately-owned hotel development and management company on the East Coast, while Emerge Hospitality Group is a family-owned and -operated hotel ownership, development and management company. "We are developing both on our own behalf and in joint ventures with like-minded investment groups," Rupesh Patel said. "We are seeing that newer hotels and brands are faring better than their older counterparts as travel rebounds in many markets and segments. To help satiate our investment growth appetite, we will continue to seek best-in-class partners, such as RevPar Development and Emerge Hospitality Group, who have proven track records as credible institutional investors, developers and operators." The Moxy hotel in downtown Atlanta, will feature 181 rooms spread across 13 floors and is scheduled to open mid-2026 before the FIFA World Cup. The centrally located hotel will cater to both business and leisure travelers and will offer three food and beverage options, including a roof top bar and lounge with views of the Mercedes Benz Stadium.

IN THE WAKE of spring break travel, U.S hotel performance continues to register growth in the third week of March compared to the previous week, according to STR's latest data through 18 March. Occupancy stood at 67.6 percent for the week ending March 18, up from 64.7 percent the week before, 1.3 percent more than the comparable week in 2002 and 2.5 percent down the comparable week in 2019. ADR was $167.04, increased from $158.20 the week before and up 8.9 percent and 23.9 percent over the same month in 2022 and 2019, respectively. RevPAR arrived at $112.89 in the third week, up from $102.38 the previous week, and an increase of 10.4 percent and 20.8 percent against the same month in 2022 and 2019. Among the Top 25 Markets, Boston saw the highest year-over-year increase in occupancy, up 17.8 percent to 71.8 percent, while Houston witnessed the highest occupancy increase over 2019, increased 9.6 percent to 72.5 percent. Las Vegas reported the highest ADR, up 77.9 percent to $306.79 and RevPAR increased 101.5 percent to $277.09 year-over-year. Las Vegas market also posted the highest increases in the measuring of ADR (up 113.2 percent to $306.79) and RevPAR (increased 116.9 percent to $277.09 percent), against 2019.

EXTENDED-STAY HOTELS experienced limited growth in July, reflecting the summer travel season's tendency to favor the overall hotel industry more than extended-stay establishments, according to The Highland Group. Total hotels reported a smaller decrease in occupancy and a slightly higher increase in ADR compared to all extended-stay hotels in July 2022. According to Highland, Extended-stay hotels performed similarly to the preceding three months in July. The economy segment reported a decrease in RevPAR, while upscale extended-stay hotels saw the strongest RevPAR increase. However, ADR growth across extended-stay segments has noticeably narrowed over the last three months. For the second consecutive month, the economy segment achieved faster ADR gains compared to mid-price extended-stay hotels. "Extended-stay hotels' 9.2 percentage-point occupancy premium above the overall hotel industry is slightly below the long-term annual average range but typical for the summer travel season," said Mark Skinner, partner at The Highland Group.

A STRONG PERFORMANCE by U.S. hotels during the first quarter of 2022, along with other factors, are leading CBRE Hotels Research to raise its forecast for the rest of the year. The research firm now expects a full recovery in ADR in 2022 and in demand and RevPAR in 2023. First quarter RevPAR reached $72.20, up 61 percent from year earlier, despite a surge from the COVID-19 omicron variant, according to CBRE. RevPAR growth was driven by a 39 percent increase in ADR and a 16 percent increase in occupancy. ADR was 5 percent ahead of 2019's levels, marking the third consecutive quarter in which levels exceed the same period in 2019. These rising rates demonstrate that travelers aren't price-sensitive in many peak-demand markets.

A STRONGER THAN expected performance by U.S. hotels in the fourth quarter of 2021 led CBRE Hotels Research to upgrade its forecast for the rest of 2022. CBRE now forecasts RevPAR will reach 2019 nominal levels by the third quarter of this year, one year earlier than the previous forecast. Occupancy is expected to rise 6.7 percent to 61.3 percent this year, then rise 5.2 percent to 64.4 percent in 2023. ADR is forecast to rise 10.1 percent to $133.94 in 2022 and go up 6 percent more to $141.99 in 2023. CBRE expects RevPAR to rise 17.5 percent in 2022 overall to $82.04 and then rise 11.5 percent to $91.46 in 2023. Positive trends, such as high employment and the return to the office for many workers who had been working from home contributed to the revised forecast, CBRE said. Other factors contributing to the improvement include below-average supply growth, strong domestic leisure trends, the resumption of inbound international travel and a predicted return to office later this year. However, ongoing inflation and geopolitical tensions connected to the war in Ukraine still threaten progress.