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STR AND TOURISM Economics made significant downward adjustments to the 2024-25 U.S. hotel forecast, reflecting lower-than-expected performance and reduced growth projections for the remainder of the year. Projected gains in ADR and RevPAR were downgraded by 1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively. Occupancy is also expected to decline, contrasting with the previous forecast's projection of year-over-year growth in this metric. While an occupancy growth projection was maintained for 2025, ADR and RevPAR were adjusted downward by 0.8 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, STR and TE said in a joint statement. "We have seen a bifurcation in hotel performance over the first four months of the year, which we don't believe will abate soon," said Amanda Hite, STR's president. "The increased cost of living is affecting lower-to-middle income households and their ability to travel, thus lessening demand for hotels in the lower price tier. The upscale through luxury tier is seeing healthy demand, but pricing power has waned given changes in mix and travel patterns and to a lesser extent, economic conditions. Travel remains a priority for most Americans, but the volume has lessened as prices on goods and services continue to rise."

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THE UPWARD MOVEMENT of ADR for U.S. hotels lifted the forecast for the market by STR and Tourism Economics. The travel research firms released the new forecast during the opening sessions of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles on Monday. The recovery timeline laid out in the new forecast remains mostly the same as the previous forecast released in November, with ADR will near full recovery this year. RevPAR is anticipated to exceed 2019 levels in 2023, but when adjusted for inflation ADR and RevPAR are not projected to reach full recovery until after 2025. Occupancy is projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. "The industry recaptured 83 percent of pre-pandemic RevPAR levels in 2021, and momentum is expected to pick up after a slow start to this year," said Carter Wilson, STR's senior vice president of consulting. "With so much of that RevPAR recovery being led by leisure-driven ADR, however, it is important to keep an eye on the real versus the nominal. Terms of recovery are not playing out evenly across the board, and many hoteliers have had to raise rates to minimize the bottom-line hit from labor and supply shortages. We are anticipating inflation to remain higher throughout the first half of the year with a gradual leveling off during the third and fourth quarters. If that happens, and we avoid major setbacks with the pandemic, this year will certainly be one to watch with demand and occupancy also shaping up to hit significant levels during the second half."

RED ROOF IS putting its money to good use, fighting human trafficking in cooperation with anti-child trafficking and exploitation organization ECPAT-USA. The hotel company and the not-for-profit kicked off their new partnership with a $10,000 check presentation at the AAHOA 2022 Annual Conference & Trade Show last week. Red Roof is a member of ECPAT-USA's Tourism Child-Protection Code of Conduct, known as "The Code," a voluntary set of business principles travel and tour companies can implement to prevent sexual exploitation and trafficking of children. Through the summer months, Red Roof also will promote The Code and encourage more donations from its franchise partners and vendors and the entire hospitality industry. "Red Roof stands shoulder-to-shoulder with ECPAT-USA," said George Limbert, president of Red Roof. "We encourage all of our partners and peers in travel and hospitality to join us and stand by ECPAT-USA in the fight against human trafficking."

Studio 6 Katy, Texas, a new-build extended-stay hotel, is now open in the Houston suburb. It is owned by Sharin Patel and Ripan Modi. The 63-suite hotel was built under the new design parent company G6 Hospitality introduced last year. Nearby attractions include Rhodes Stadium and Legacy Stadium, Nelson Water Gardens and Nursery and Typhoon Texas Waterpark. The hotel also is pet friendly, and G6's recently implemented "Clean@6" cleaning and safety protocols are in effect at the new property. "Katy is a vibrant town and popular destination for business and tourism, and we are excited to partner with G6 Hospitality to bring more affordable lodging options to the area," said Modi, who also is the hotel's general manager. "We chose to open a Studio 6 because of the brand's longstanding commitment to leaving the light on for guests, which has been of even greater need for those required to continue travel during these times. Whether guests are looking to stay for an extended period or just a night or two, our goal is to make traveling affordable and accessible for all."

ON MONDAY THE Hospitality Financial and Technology Professionals association politely declined an offer by the American Hotel and Lodging Association to merge the two organizations. Instead, HFTP's board of directors offered to enter into a memorandum of understanding with AHLA similar to agreements it has with other associations, such as AAHOA. HFTP said in a statement that, as a global organization "with members from the entire hospitality spectrum" it would not benefit those members to merge with a localized association such as AHLA. Instead, it suggested the MOU in keeping with HFTP's agreements with AAHOA, Caribbean Hotel and Tourism Association, Hospitality Sales and Marketing Association, Hotel Asset Managers Association - Middle East, Hotel Controllers and Accountants Association of Hong Kong, National Club Association and the Association of Private Club Directors. "As a former director of AHLA, I know they do good work for the industry and their recent takeovers of HTNG and HAMA will definitely help these smaller associations," said Frank Wolfe, HFTP's CEO. "But HFTP is a global association with global brands: HITEC, PineappleSearch.com, the Uniform System of Accounts for the Lodging Industry and global certifications/certificates, not to mention our members from non-hotel segments. Our mission is education not advocacy."

NEWBOND HOLDINGS HAS acquired Aloft Tampa Downtown in Tampa, Florida, marking its third downtown riverfront hotel investment in the city in 24 months. This takes the company's total to more than 700 hotel rooms and more than 800 ft. of frontage along the Hillsborough River, Newbond said in a statement. Niel Luthra is the founding partner of New York-based Newbond Holdings. The 130-key hotel, located on the Riverwalk, provides both indoor and outdoor amenities, featuring a waterfront pool, gym, corporate meeting and event spaces, as well as a bar and lounge, the statement added. Newbond is planning a comprehensive hotel renovation to include all guestrooms, public areas and the pool deck. "Our third hotel investment in downtown Tampa since 2021 demonstrates our conviction in the long-term Tampa growth story," said Neil Luthra, founding partner of Newbond. "Tampa's robust job and population growth; flourishing convention and tourism business; and continued institutional investment have created one of the strongest real estate and hospitality markets in the country."

OCCUPANCY FOR U.S. hotels is now expected to finish the year a little down from the previous forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. However, projections for ADR and RevPAR recovery remain on track in the data firms' final forecast of the year. RevPAR is still expected to fully recover this year on a nominal basis, but not until 2025 when adjusted for inflation, according to the new forecast. The updated forecast lowered occupancy by less than a percentage point for 2022, standing now at 62.7 percent compared to the previously forecasted 63 percent released in August. "As expected, group business travel has been much more aligned with pre-pandemic patterns, specifically in October when group demand hit a pandemic-era high," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Leisure travel has maintained its strength since our previous forecast update, and we expect these strong demand trends in both group and leisure to continue through the fourth quarter. Bottom-line performance has also persisted, with our most recent data showing strong profit margins due to lower employment levels and reduced services. The challenges around labor continue to be a concern, as high levels of hospitality unemployment and more spending on contract labor are pushing labor costs on a per-available-room basis above 2019 levels. We continue to take inflation and the likely recession into consideration, but the hotel industry has continued to show resilience through these tougher times, thus the steadiness of our updated forecast."

OCCUPANCY PROJECTIONS ARE dropping while ADR projections are rising in a new forecast for U.S. hotels by STR and Tourism Economics. RevPAR is still expected to recover fully on a nominal basis this year, according to the forecast released Thursday at STR's 14th Annual Hotel Data Conference in Nashville. However, RevPAR is still expected to take until 2025 to recover when adjusted for inflation, according to the forecast. For 2022, RevPAR is now expected to average $93 compared to the projection of $92 released in June, when projected nominal RevPAR recovery was set in 2023. The occupancy projection for the year was lowered to 64.6 percent for the year and the ADR projection rose to $148. The updated forecast adds a little more than $2 to the ADR projection for both 2022 and 2023, and occupancy was lowered by less than a percentage point for each year.

HOTEL EMPLOYEES NOW have their own day, Sept. 1, thanks to the American Hotel & Lodging Association. AHLA had the date included in the National Day Calendar as part of its effort to increase recruitment of new hospitality workers. National Hotel Employee Day will be celebrated annually to thank hotel employees for their hard work and dedication and recognize the role they play in the nation's travel, tourism and hotel industries, according to AHLA. AHLA's launching of the day is in response to the struggle U.S. hotels are facing to quickly fill more than 120,000 open hotel jobs by offering current and prospective employees higher wages, with better benefits, and more flexibility. "On this inaugural National Hotel Employee Day, we thank America's nearly two million hotel employees. Every day in communities across the nation, hotel employees' service and dedication help facilitate some of Americans' most important life events - from wedding receptions to family reunions and vacations," said Chip Rogers, AHLA president and CEO. "Now is the time to consider one of the more than 200 enriching careers in the hotel industry."

MORE THAN SEVEN in 10 Americans would be deterred from booking a hotel room in Los Angeles if hotels there are forced to house homeless people next to paying guests, according to a recent poll by American Hotel & Lodging Association. The survey was released as the city of Los Angel considers a proposed ordinance that would require hotels to house homeless individuals alongside paying guests, a change opposed by AHLA and AAHOA. Los Angeles residents will vote in March 2024 on the ballot initiative proposed by Unite Here, a labor union representing L.A.-area hotel workers. The AHLA study highlighted the significant impact such a policy would have on tourism and hotel occupancy in the city. However, if Unite Here's ballot initiative passes, Los Angeles would be the first city in American history to require hotels to house homeless people alongside paying guests.

DD PARTNERS, PEACHTREE Group, and Woodbine Development are collaborating on Embassy Suites Gulf Shores, a resort with a Gulf of Mexico view located in tourism spot in Alabama. DD Partners and Woodbine lead the development and asset management of the 8-story joint venture project, with Peachtree overseeing resort operations. The project is currently in progress and is expected to be completed in the summer of 2025, the companies said in a joint statement. The 8-story property will feature 257 all-suite beachfront guestrooms, along with 13,620 square feet of enclosed meeting and pre-function space, including a 7,800-square-foot ballroom, the statement said. The resort will also feature a 3-story parking garage and 7,618 square feet of leasable retail space.

STR AND TOURISM ECONOMICS have increased year-over-year growth projections for ADR and RevPAR in the final revision of the U.S. hotel forecast for 2023. While some factors, such as higher interest rates and more restrictive lending, may impact the economy, their effect on the travel industry is not expected to be strong. In 2023, RevPAR saw a 0.3 percentage point increase, propelled by a 0.6ppt rise in ADR growth, according to STR and TE. Meanwhile, recent RevPAR trends affirm rate as the predominant performance driver. Occupancy was downgraded by 0.2ppts, STR and TE said in a statement. Growth projections for key performance metrics in 2024 remained flat from the previous forecast, reflecting the stabilization of long-term average trends.

ALL FORMS OF travel are experiencing a post-pandemic resurgence, including cruises, according to a survey from risk and crisis response provider Global Rescue. Some have concerns about their destination, but most are ready to hit the seven seas. According to the Global Rescue Traveler Sentiment and Safety Survey, 30 percent of respondents were experiencing some hesitancy about where to go, or when to get back to travel after two years of pandemic-related travel restrictions. Meanwhile, 70 percent of respondents are not experiencing any re-entry to travel anxiety in general or on cruise ships, according to the survey. "Nineteen percent of survey takers say they feel safer or much safer about taking a cruise compared to last year," said Dan Richards, CEO of Global Rescue and a member of the U.S. Travel and Tourism Advisory Board at the U.S. Department of Commerce.

ATLANTA-BASED BANYAN Investment Group, led by Rakesh Chauhan and Andy Chopra as managing partners, is rebranding as Satori Collective, an investment management firm focusing primarily on hotel property investment. Its subsidiary Banyan Tree Management also has become Aperture Hotels. Satori and Aperture will work independently of one another. The awakening Satori focuses on investment into select-service, upper select-service extended-stay and lifestyle hotel properties, according to the company. It concentrates on investment in growth corridors located in top MSAs across the U.S. which have established hotel demand generators such as tourism, corporate group travel, state capitals, conference universities, healthcare, heavy manufacturing and military. "Satori is a Buddhist term meaning 'awakening and deep understanding,' which is how our team approaches commercial real estate investment," Chopra said. "With more than 140 years of combined investment experience in virtually all markets and segments, our team has an unparalleled understanding of both the environment and the marketplace. We realized that our true, core business is real estate investment, so we have renewed and doubled our focus on raising and deploying capital in pursuit of consistent, risk adjusted returns while allowing our former management platform to stand on its own and pursue additional third-party management business opportunities."

NEARLY 80 PERCENT of travelers said that the latest COVID-19 variant, BA5, is unlikely to make them cancel or postpone international travel this year, according to a survey from travel risk assessment firm Global Rescue. At the same time, Global Rescue said relaxed COVID-19 recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention could encourage travelers' confidence. The floodgates are opening The Summer 2022 Global Rescue Traveler Safety and Sentiment Survey found that 68 percent of respondents have already traveled internationally since the pandemic. Another 16 percent expects to travel abroad by the end of the year and 9 percent plan to do so in the first quarter of 2023. "Whether it's revenge travel or responsible travel following vaccination, or a combination of both, 7-out-of-10 travelers are much less concerned about travel compared to the beginning of the pandemic," said Dan Richards, CEO of Global Rescue and a member of the U.S. Travel and Tourism Advisory Board at the U.S. Department of Commerce. "They feel safe enough to plan trips and vacations because they're vaccinated, borders are open, and they have confidence they'll be able to get home if the worst happens." The U.S. ending its requirement for a negative COVID test to enter the country in June also went far in increasing confidence and encouraging visits from international travelers, Richards said. Nearly half of travelers, 49 percent, said that they are more likely to travel internationally in the next 12 months as COVID related restrictions are relaxed.