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http://www.wellsphere.com/healthcare-industry-policy-article/commodities-are-dreadful-151-and-have-almost-no-place-in-your-portfolio-storify/1932991 The Tyler Group News Barcelona- One of the things I really hate about the current Wall Street environment is how so many people have been fooled into thinking that commodities are a necessary part of your asset allocation. I've been pretty hard on commodities over the years (see this detailed piece here). I think it's mostly just a ruse to sell another group of products and I think it's really dangerous. But even worse, I just think betting on commodities is fundamentally flawed thinking. Not only are you speculating in a zero sum game involving production-less input costs, but you're directly betting against human ingenuity. I don't like either of those bets. If one actually takes a look at the long-term real returns of commodities you realize they're actually quite dreadful. Even if we cherry pick a decent period that includes a big boom like the last 20 years we still see pretty awful performance. Over the last 20 years commodities have returned just 1.6% per year over the last 20 years (see figure 1). That's a real return of about MINUS 1%. I prefer to think of commodities as something that is an input or a means to helping us innovate. If you're bullish on oil price dynamics you shouldn't go buy barrels of oil and store them in a locker somewhere. You should find the companies who leverage the use of that commodity and will benefit by innovating through the use of that input. Don't bet against innovation. Bet on it. I say all of this as I see the silver bubble (that I discussed back in 2011 when silver was 40% higher) come crashing down. Sensible portfolio construction starts with understanding the role of specific assets in the economy and how those various assets fit into your portfolio in particular ways. I don't know why this theme of commodities as an asset class has taken

(Reuters) - European shares saw their strongest gains in a week on Tuesday after a pick-up in German economic sentiment data bolstered hopes the region's biggest economy would rebound quickly from its recent weakness. Wall Street was expected to return from a three-day weekend with further gains, as it looks to build on the seven straight weeks of rises that have pushed the S&P 500 to a five-year high. Following last week's GDP figures showing that the euro zone saw a weaker end to 2012 than expected, Germany's ZEW survey of investors and analysts brightened the mood as it comfortably beat expectations to hit its highest level since April 2010. "Financial market experts have made their peace with the weak fourth quarter of 2012," said ZEW president Wolfgang Franz after its headline figure jumped to 48.2 points from 31.5 in January. "In their opinion the German economy faces less of a headwind from the euro crisis than throughout the last months." European stock markets, which had lost around 1.5 percent since the end of January, extended early gains after the data to put them on track for their biggest advance in a week. The FTSEurofirst 300 had added 0.9 percent by 1330 GMT, led by a 1.5 gain on Paris's CAC-40 and 1.2 percent rises on Frankfurt's DAX, in Milan and in Madrid. "Even if the real economy only lives up to half the expectations, ... any fears of a technical recession should turn out to have been unjustified," ING economist Carsten Brzeski said of the German outlook following the ZEW survey. The euro also rose and German government bonds turned negative after the figures, though both moves proved to be brief. The euro was little changed at $1.3350 as afternoon trading gathered pace and benchmark Bunds were back in positive territory at 142.82. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's reiteration on Monday that the bank would continue to monitor the euro's recent strength kept downward pressure on the currency, as some took the comments as a hint tha

Thanks a lot for sharing us about this update. Hope you will not get tired on making posts as informative as this.

http://www.powershow.com/view/3ce477-MmFmN/The_Tyler_Group_News_Barcelona_Commodities_Are_Dreadful_and_Have_Almost_No_Place_In_Your_Portfolio_powerpoint_ppt_presentation The Tyler Group News Barcelona- One of the things I really hate about the current Wall Street environment is how so many people have been fooled into thinking that commodities are a necessary part of your asset allocation. I've been pretty hard on commodities over the years (see this detailed piece here). I think it's mostly just a ruse to sell another group of products and I think it's really dangerous. But even worse, I just think betting on commodities is fundamentally flawed thinking. Not only are you speculating in a zero sum game involving production-less input costs, but you're directly betting against human ingenuity. I don't like either of those bets. If one actually takes a look at the long-term real returns of commodities you realize they're actually quite dreadful. Even if we cherry pick a decent period that includes a big boom like the last 20 years we still see pretty awful performance. Over the last 20 years commodities have returned just 1.6% per year over the last 20 years (see figure 1). That's a real return of about MINUS 1%. I prefer to think of commodities as something that is an input or a means to helping us innovate. If you're bullish on oil price dynamics you shouldn't go buy barrels of oil and store them in a locker somewhere. You should find the companies who leverage the use of that commodity and will benefit by innovating through the use of that input. Don't bet against innovation. Bet on it. The Tyler Group News Barcelona Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/commodities-have-almost-no-place-in-your-portfolio-2013-4