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Paul Merrell

Iceland the first European Nation to sign Free Trade Agreement with China | nsnbc inter... - 0 views

  • A Free Trade Agreement (FTA) has been signed in Beijing by Mr. Össur Skarphéðinsson, Minister for Foreign Affairs and External Trade of Iceland, and Mr. Gao Hucheng, Minister of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, in the presence of the Prime Minister of Iceland and the Premier of China. The agreement, signed on September 15, made Iceland the first European nation to sign and FTA with China. 
  • The central aim of the Iceland-China Free Trade Agreement is to promote trade by abolishing tariffs on imports and to further enhance economic ties between the two countries, reports the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) of Iceland, adding that it is in essence similar to other FTAs that Iceland, as a member of European Free Trade Association (EFTA), has already concluded. The new bilateral FTA covers trade in goods and services, rules of origin, trade facilitation, intellectual property rights, competition and investment. Furthermore, the FTA entails that the two states should enhance their co-operation in a number of areas, including on labor matters and the environment, reports the MoFA of Iceland. A Joint Free Trade Commission will supervise the functioning of the FTA and establishes a framework for resolving trade issues that may arise in the future. The Iceland-China Free Trade Agreement will enter into force when legal procedures of acceptance in both countries have been concluded.
Paul Merrell

Time for the Nuclear Option: Raining Money on Main Street | WEB OF DEBT BLOG - 0 views

  • Predictions are that we will soon be seeing the “nuclear option” — central bank-created money injected directly into the real economy. All other options having failed, governments will be reduced to issuing money outright to cover budget deficits. So warns a September 18 article on ZeroHedge titled “It Begins: Australia’s Largest Investment Bank Just Said ‘Helicopter Money’ Is 12-18 Months Away.” Money reformers will say it’s about time. Virtually all money today is created as bank debt, but people can no longer take on more debt. The money supply has shrunk along with people’s ability to borrow new money into existence. Quantitative easing (QE) attempts to re-inflate the money supply by giving money to banks to create more debt, but that policy has failed. It’s time to try dropping some debt-free money on Main Street. The Zerohedge prediction is based on a release from Macqurie, Australia’s largest investment bank. It notes that GDP is contracting, deflationary pressures are accelerating, public and private sectors are not driving the velocity of money higher, and central bank injections of liquidity are losing their effectiveness. Current policies are not working. As a result:
  • There are several policies that could be and probably would be considered over the next 12-18 months. If private sector lacks confidence and visibility to raise velocity of money, then (arguably) public sector could. In other words, instead of acting via bond markets and banking sector, why shouldn’t public sector bypass markets altogether and inject stimulus directly into the ‘blood stream’? Whilst it might or might not be called QE, it would have a much stronger impact and unlike the last seven years, the recovery could actually mimic a conventional business cycle and investors would soon start discussing multiplier effects and positioning in areas of greatest investment.  Willem Buiter, chief global economist at Citigroup, is also recommending “helicopter money drops” to avoid an imminent global recession, stating: A global recession starting in 2016 led by China is now our Global Economics team’s main scenario. Uncertainty remains, but the likelihood of a timely and effective policy response seems to be diminishing. . . . Helicopter money drops in China, the euro area, the UK, and the U.S. and debt restructuring . . . can mitigate and, if implemented immediately, prevent a recession during the next two years without raising the risk of a deeper and longer recession later.
  • In the UK, something akin to a helicopter money drop was just put on the table by Jeremy Corbyn, the newly-elected Labor leader. He proposes to give the Bank of England a new mandate to upgrade the economy to invest in new large scale housing, energy, transport and digital projects. He calls it “quantitative easing for people instead of banks” (PQE). The investments would be made through a National Investment Bank set up to invest in new infrastructure and in the hi-tech innovative industries of the future. Australian blogger Prof. Bill Mitchell agrees that PQE is economically sound. But he says it should not be called “quantitative easing.” QE is just an asset swap – cash for federal securities or mortgage-backed securities on bank balance sheets. What Corbyn is proposing is actually Overt Money Financing (OMF) – injecting money directly into the economy. Mitchell acknowledges that OMF is a taboo concept in mainstream economics. Allegedly, this is because it would lead to hyperinflation. But the real reasons, he says, are that: It cuts out the private sector bond traders from their dose of corporate welfare which unlike other forms of welfare like sickness and unemployment benefits etc. has made the recipients rich in the extreme. . . . It takes away the ‘debt monkey’ that is used to clobber governments that seek to run larger fiscal deficits.
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  • Tim Worstall, writing in the UK Register, objects to Corbyn’s PQE (or OMF) on the ground that it cannot be “sterilized” the way QE can. When inflation hits, the process cannot be reversed. If the money is spent on infrastructure, it will be out there circulating in the economy and will not be retrievable. Worstall writes: QE is designed to be temporary, . . . because once people’s spending rates recover we need a way of taking all that extra money out of the economy. So we do it by using printed money to buy bonds, which injects the money into the economy, and then sell those bonds back once we need to withdraw the money from the economy, and simply destroy the money we’ve raised. . . . If we don’t have any bonds to sell, it’s not clear how we can reduce [the money supply] if large-scale inflation hits.
  • The problem today, however, is not inflation but deflation of the money supply. Some consumer prices may be up, but this can happen although the money supply is shrinking. Food prices, for example, are up; but it’s because of increased costs, including drought in California, climate change, and mergers and acquisitions by big corporations that eliminate competition. Adding money to the economy will not drive up prices until demand is saturated and production has hit full capacity; and we’re a long way from full capacity now. Before that, increasing “demand” will increase “supply.” Producers will create more goods and services. Supply and demand will rise together and prices will remain stable. In the US, the output gap – the difference between actual output and potential output – is estimated at about $1 trillion annually. That means the money supply could be increased by at least $1 trillion annually without driving up prices.
  • If PQE does go beyond full productive capacity, the government does not need to rely on the central bank to pull the money back. It can do this with taxes. Just as loans increase the money supply and repaying them shrinks it again, so taxes and other payments to the government will shrink a money supply augmented with money issued by the government. Using 2012 figures (drawing from an earlier article by this author), the velocity of M1 (the coins, dollar bills and demand deposits spent by ordinary consumers) was then 7. That means M1 changed hands seven times during 2012 – from housewife to grocer to farmer, etc. Since each recipient owed taxes on this money, increasing M1 by one dollar increased the tax base by seven dollars. Total tax revenue as a percentage of GDP in 2012 was 24.3%. Extrapolating from those figures, $1.00 changing hands seven times could increase tax revenue by $7.00 x 24.3% = $1.70. That means the government could, in theory, get more back in taxes than it paid out. Even with some leakage in those figures and deductions for costs, all or most of the new money spent into the economy might be taxed back to the government. New money could be pumped out every year and the money supply would increase little if at all.
  • Besides taxes, other ways to get money back into the Treasury include closing tax loopholes, taxing the $21 trillion or more hidden in offshore tax havens, and setting up a system of public banks that would return the interest on loans to the government. Net interest collected by U.S. banks in 2014 was $423 billion. At its high in 2007, it was $725 billion. Thus there are many ways to recycle an issue of new money back to the government. The same money could be spent and collected back year after year, without creating price inflation or hyperinflating the money supply. This not only could be done; it needs to be done. Conventional monetary policy has failed. Central banks have exhausted their existing toolboxes and need to explore some innovative alternatives.
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    Debt having failed as a method of money creation leads us back to the printing press method. But on whom are those helicopters to drop their new money? And how to we ensure that the banksters are not among them?
Paul Merrell

New Data Reveals U.S. Far From Freest Country in the World - 0 views

  • According to the annual Economic Freedom of the World report, the United States has dropped to #16 in an index of economic freedom. The list, released by the Fraser Institute, ranks countries around the world by a number of different factors that include the size and scope of government: expenditures, taxes, enterprises, legal structure and security of property rights, access to sound money, freedom to trade internationally, and regulation of credit, labor, and business were all evaluated. The study also considered income levels and poverty rates. As the introduction of the study details:“The cornerstones of economic freedom are (1) personal choice, (2) voluntary exchange coordinated by markets, (3) freedom to enter and compete in markets, and (4) protection of persons and their property from aggression by others. Economic freedom is present when individuals are permitted to choose for themselves and engage in voluntary transactions as long as they do not harm the person or property of others.”At the top of the list was Hong Kong, followed by Singapore, New Zealand, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates, Mauritius, Jordan, Ireland, and Canada. The United Kingdom and Chile tied at #10. The United States followed behind at #16, continuing a downward trend that has grown for several years.
  • The report also noted that “Nowhere has the reversal of the rising trend in the economic freedom been more evident than in the United States. Throughout the period from 1970 to 2000, the United States ranked as the world’s freest OECD nation (generally the third freest economy overall behind only Hong Kong and Singapore). The chain-linked summary rating of the United States in 2000 was 8.65. By 2005, the US rating had slipped to 8.22. The slide has continued. The 7.73 chain-linked rating of the United States in 2013 was more than 0.9 of a unit lower than the 2000 rating. Thus, the decline in economic freedom in the United States has been more than three times greater than the average decline found in the OECD [emphasis added].”While the U.S. has never had a truly free economy, the new study makes it evident that Americans have far less economic freedom and opportunity than they did in the year 2000. Now that economic conditions are even worse in the U.S. than they were before, a culture of extreme economic control has taken over and exacerbated the growing recession — one that history may end up redesignating a depression.
Paul Merrell

Lawyer: Officer recommends no jail for Bergdahl - 0 views

  • The officer in charge of Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl's Article 32 hearing has recommended that the soldier accused of desertion avoid jail time for his actions, according to Bergdahl's civil defense attorney.Lt. Col. Mark Visger's report to Gen. Robert Abrams, the head of Army Forces Command who is in charge of the case, also will advise that the matter be decided at a special court-martial, lawyer Eugene Fidell told Army Times on Saturday, confirming reports in other media outlets. Soldiers facing special courts-martial can receive no more than a year in jail and no worse than a bad-conduct discharge; punishments regarding hard labor and pay forfeiture have similar restrictions.Visger also recommended Bergdahl not face a punitive discharge for his alleged actions, Fidell said. A memo from Bergdahl's defense team to Visger regarding the report — released late Friday by Fidell to media members — said the officer's recommendations didn't go far enough and requested nonjudicial punishment, better known as an Article 15, instead of a special court-martial.
  • The Article 32 hearing wrapped up Sept. 18. Berghdal faces one desertion charge and one charge of misbehavior before the enemy, which could carry a life sentence.Visger isn't the first officer connected with the case to recommend against jail time; Maj. Gen. Kenneth Dahl, who was charged with investigating Bergdahl's 2009 capture by the Taliban, testified last month that the now-29-year-old soldier should not be imprisoned for his actions.
  • "They should be releasing Col. Visger's report, they should be releasing Gen. Dahl's report, they should be releasing Sgt. Bergdahl's 371-page transcript of his interrogation by Gen. Dahl, I mean, all of this stuff should be released," Fidell said."We could object to it, but we're not objecting to it, we want it public. And the chips will fall where they may. ... Let people make up their own minds instead of having this all behind a curtain."
Joseph Skues

Restore America Plan | - 0 views

  • the de jure institutions of lawful government.
  • Terminate illicit corporations posing as legitimate governments
  • (corp. ref. 28 U.S.C. 3002
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  • Terminate all presumed powers of attorney
  • (for borrowing against one’s own credit).
  • I.R.S. (former Puerto Rico Bureau of Taxation).
  • End street assaults
  • for failing to exhibit a State-issued confession
  • of subject-class citizenship.
  • End admiralty prosecutions
  • “commercial crimes” against the corporate State
  • ref. 27 C.F.R. 72.11).
  • corporations posing as the state
  • which confess the signer to be a legal fiction subject of the United States Federal Corporation (“U.S. person”
  • thereby transferring control to incorporated County registrars and tax assessors.
  • whereby incorporated “courts” presume the “right” to trespass on families and kidnap children.
  • Restore the People’s money and wealth from the banking institutions,
  • end all non-consensual and unlawful taxation
  • sacred rights of labor and privacy.
  • to enforce the Peoples’ divine rights of birth.
  • Reabsorb all de facto actors into lawful de jure capacity.
  • district court of the United States
  • Restore the de jure judicial institutions
  • ncluding
  • without provoking alarm, controversy or armed conflict.
  • Quietly mirror the strategies of 1933
  • behind the scenes, without public proclamations or provocative actions
Joseph Skues

Why capitalism can't meet human needs - 0 views

  • This crisis began when the housing bubble burst. Capitalist banks were lending money to profit-seeking real estate developers to build houses. The same banks were lending money to mortgage companies to make as many loans as they could. The goal was to boost profits. Soon there were more houses than the workers and the middle class could buy. The prices of homes fell. Mortgages could not be refinanced. Workers could not pay the steep increases in interest rates built into their loans. Banks stopped lending. Millions of households went into foreclosure. Put simply, people became homeless because there were too many houses! Not too many houses that were needed or already here, but too many houses that can be sold at a profit. Furthermore, the workers who build homes and all the workers who make the things that go into homes are losing their jobs because these homes can no longer be sold at a profit. That is the essence of all the capitalist crises that have occurred since the first crisis in 1825. It is the crisis of overproduction.
  • Now the crisis of overproduction is sweeping the auto industry. From the auto industry and the housing industry it is spreading throughout the economy. The stock markets are plummeting because the financial bailouts, the pumping of trillions of dollars into the banks, cannot stop the capitalist economic crisis.
  • Profits consist of unpaid labor.
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  • Under the system of capitalist exploitation wealth flows to the top, and the level of inequality is obscene.
  • the super-rich who have all the levers of power in society, owned 34.3 percent of the wealth in 2004.
  • Racism and national oppression
  • distribution of wealth under capitalism
  • the median wealth (that is, savings and other assets) of households by race in 2004 was $140,700 for whites, $20,600 for African Americans and $18,600 for Latin@s
  • Oppression and economic discrimination also fall on women and lesbian, gay, bi and trans people under capitalism
  • sex and gender bias as a way to divide and conquer.
  • A system in which people are homeless because there are too many homes must go
  • How else could 1 percent of the population dominate the workers and oppressed
  • As the present crisis engulfs wider and wider sections of the workers, the potential for bringing about that unity is growing stronger.
  • The Pentagon is nothing more than an enforcer for U.S. capitalism
  • The growing witch-hunt against undocumented workers has the same poisonous, divisive goal.
  • in which workers are losing their jobs and being plunged into poverty because they have produced too much wealth
  • which cannot provide jobs and education but imprisons 2.4 million people
  • majority of them Black and Latin@, is bankrupt
  • where production takes place for human need, not for profit. The class that produces the wealth, the multinational working class, should own and distribute that wealth.
  • Trillions of dollars are now being used to bail out the banks and fund the Pentagon under capitalism. Under socialism, that money would guarantee that everyone would have a decent job and income, free health care, affordable housing, free education, low-cost transportation, healthy, reasonably priced food and much more. The well-being of the multinational working class would be the goal of society, not their exploitation as it is under capitalism.
Joseph Skues

Being sick in France ; French social security ; retirement in France - 0 views

  • the system is very efficient : the administrative cost of the health system is around 4,5% (for US private insurance companies : 10 to 13%) and 1,2% for the retirement system (vs. around 10% for most pension funds). The health system reimburses very quickly (after four days).
  • 22 Euros
  • "three best symbols of the French nation" are the flag, the health and the Marseillaise
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  • each regional organization (Caisse) is managed by a board composed 50/50 of representatives of labor unions on one side, employers associations on the other side, with the State playing the role of a referee
  • it is not accurate to call it a "socialized
  • when a family is expecting a child, it gets approximately 2,000 Euros in three installments (the first two of them corresponding to a mandatory medical visit, the third to the birth) ; then the family receives a monthly allowance till the child is 20 (for two children or more, around 100 Euros/month/child) ;
  • minimal pension (in the range of 750 Euros/month) to any person who has worked 40 years
  • For the French, it is just unthinkable that, if you lose your job, you also lose your health plan
  • This is a typical example of what the French call their "social model" and one of the few where, in my opinion, the USA could learn something from the French experience. Read my opinion about it "Socialized medicine : give me a break".
  • all companies, whatever their size, must provide their staff with an annual visit to a doctor ; in big companies it is a in-house doctor, in small companies an external doctor who comes for the annual controls
  • (otherwise, you'll be reimbursed a little less)
  • SOS Medecin tel. 01 47 07 77 77 : very reasonably priced (around 70 Euros) and efficient, a doctor in your house in less than an hour
  • Basic tips for tourists you can see any doctor (they also make house calls for a small supplement) for a cost of around 22 Euros ($ 30) but you will not be reimbursed by Social Security if you are not part of the French Social Security system you can be treated by any French hospital in case of emergency (they will talk about money AFTER treating you...) you can buy certain drugs over the counter in a pharmacy but a lot of them require a doctor's prescription ; don't be surprised if you do not find US drug brand names, you are in another country ! If your French isn't good, there are two hospitals with English-speaking staff : the American Hospital, 63 blvd Victor Hugo 92202 Neuilly, Tel. 33-(0)1 46 41 25 25 ; Email : patient@ahp-paris.com the British Hospital, 3 rue Barbès 92300 Levallois Tel. 33-(0)1 46 39 22 22 Public or private ? For a serious case, it is often wiser to go to a public hospital, especially a CHU (Centre Hospitalo-Universitaire). In case of a (real) emergency call SAMU (this is a day and night emergency service tel. 15) or les pompiers (fire-brigade) who provide 24 hour-emergency service (tel. 18). Useful numbers for emergencies (other than 15) :
  • The World Health Organization (WHO) has ranked the health system of its 191 member countries and France tops the list for providing the best overall health care (UK ranks 18 and USA ranks 37) (source : International Herald Tribune June 21,2000).
  • Health coverage by Social Security ("Sécurité Sociale") is mandatory and paid both by the employee (1/4) and the employer (3/4).
  • In the USA the Emergency staff is a driver whose job is to take you as fast as possible to the hospital, whatever your condition, in a fast ambulance. In France, the SAMU team includes a MD whose job is to do as much as he can before taking you to the hospital in a more heavily-equipped ambulance. Both ways have their pros and cons, but dont be horrified if you see an ambulance NOT moving....
  • DID YOU KNOW THAT....? In France, the maternity leave is 16 weeks minimum (of course paid 100% of the salary!), plus one month minimum if the baby is breast-fed ; "paternity" leave is two weeks ; new mothers spend 3 to 6 days in the hospital.
  • To related pages : a column of the Health system (#2), an American article on the French health system (#3), etc....
  • French doctors are not very different from American doctors, except they make much less money (three or four times?) and are probably much more accessible, less protected by a dragon-secretary.
  • All expenses are paid by the company and of course the employee does not pay a cent. The 20-minute visit includes whatever check-up seems appropriate (heart, eyes, stress, depression...). The doctor cannot prescribe medecine but can prescribe a visit to the doctor is something new that is wrong or needs a more thorough check is detected.
  • You have to pay ONE Euro more (not reimbursable) for every visit to the doctor
  • The system is threefold : Health, Family and Retirement, each of them has different structures and financing ; each of them is financially autonomous (no taxpayer's money -
  • The system is threefold : Health, Family and Retirement, each of them has different structures and financing ; each of them is financially autonomous ( no taxpayer's money
Gary Edwards

How IT Costs More Jobs than It Creates - Technology Review - 0 views

  • Brynjolfsson and McAfee cite evidence that—in addition to other macroeconomic problems, and the 2008 financial crisis—the U.S. economy is undergoing a structural change wrought by technology. "It's not just the crash, it's something that is changing fundamentally in the way people use technology," Brynjolfsson says
    • Gary Edwards
       
      Maybe it's true that technological changes to "productivity" are coming so fast, and with such dramatic improvements, that people can't adapt and keep up; creating a human vs tech productivity gap.  Maybe though, productivity / employment is not the most accurate gauge for measuring income, prosperity and wealth.  Consumption and investment have to be factored in.  The Fair Tax is a better fit for this high tech  productivity world than the Progressive Income Tax. Societies that carry a huge militaristic and/or socialistic cost to citizenship and governance are certainly at a competitive disadvantage in a global economy.  The cost of productivity has to carry the weight of militaristic/socialist government.  In the US, near 50% of the population exist on government subsidized income/re-distribution.  If it wasn't for tech pumped productivity, where the return on investment jumps also as labor cost and the cost of product/services distribution falls, it would be impossible for the US private sector to carry the enormous weight of government. It seems to me though that consumption has it's own internal balancing mechanism, if only the government would get out of the way and let it work.  Citizens can't consume if they don't produce.  Regardless of the the tech productivity bump factor!   The other point is that much of this discussion rests on the gravitational law that digital information represents reality; and digital services make reality more efficient with global distribution possibilities (larger markets).  But you can't eat "digital representations of reality".  You can't physically fly from San Francisco to NYC using strictly digital representations, even though you can simulate communication and connectivity "digitally". At the end of the day, digital machines enable us to work reality in new and efficient ways.  But they are still machines.  And a reality of physical dimensions remains.
Paul Merrell

Wall Street's Win on Swaps Rule Shows Washington Resurgence - Bloomberg - 0 views

  • Wall Street is re-emerging as a force in Washington as it closes in on one of its biggest wins against regulation since the financial crisis. With must-pass spending legislation making its way through Congress this week, banks seized on an opportunity to attach a measure that would halt a planned restriction on derivatives trading they had long opposed. The industry’s lobbying extended to the highest levels of finance with JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon pressing lawmakers to support the change.
  • Wall Street’s success, after four years of struggling to persuade Congress to ease the Dodd-Frank Act, is a precursor to more fights next year against some of the law’s hallmarks: the consumer protection bureau and stiff oversight of big financial companies whose failure could threaten the financial system. “The Wall Street interests -- the big banks -- they’re back,” said Richard Durbin of Illinois, the Senate’s second-ranking Democrat. The $1.1 trillion spending measure cleared its biggest hurdle when the House passed it last night and sent it to the Senate for consideration today. Banks had modest expectations even under the new Republican Congress that will convene in January, a group they presume will be more receptive to their agenda. Their surprising success this week may embolden lenders to seek deeper regulatory changes as Republicans take control of the Senate from Democrats.
  • The derivatives provision would let JPMorgan, Citigroup Inc. (C), Bank of America Corp. and other banks trade almost all swaps in divisions that have government backstops like deposit insurance. It would repeal a requirement that some of the trades be pushed out to separate units, which Wall Street argued would drive up costs for clients and increase risk in the financial system by moving the trades to firms less regulated than banks. Lawmakers put the requirement in Dodd-Frank, which was passed in 2010 after banks’ losses on souring derivative trades spurred a taxpayer bailout of Wall Street in 2008. The inclusion of the Dodd-Frank changes in the spending bill spurred a week-long opposition campaign by Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and other Democratic lawmakers. Their news conferences, TV interviews, emergency meetings on Capitol Hill and pressure from allies including the AFL-CIO labor federation prompted President Barack Obama to call lawmakers urging them to vote for the broader bill to avoid a government shutdown.
Paul Merrell

Crude price drop triggers major layoffs in US oil industry - RT USA - 0 views

  • Thousands of recently highly paid workers have been laid off after the oil price plummeted 50 percent in 2014. At least four American oil-producing states are already facing budget problems due to decreasing oil revenues. The price plunge has affected petroleum production in all oil-extracting countries, including the US.
  • For Texas, which has a far larger and more diversified economy than Louisiana, the oil price downturn is no good either. In just October and November Texas lost 2,300 oil and gas jobs, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week. Through the last half a year the state has been losing $83 million in potential revenue every day, the Greater Houston Partnership recently reported. They blamed this on crashing price of its West Texas Intermediate crude oil, which has depreciated to $54.73 per barrel this week, from more than $100 six months ago.
  • This doesn’t apply to the state of Alaska. According to the NYT, approximately 90 percent of state’s budget is formed from oil revenues. Alaska’s government is considering a 50 percent capital-spending cut for bridges and roads in the face of the oil price drop, with Moody’s, the credit rating service, lowering Alaska’s credit outlook from stable to negative. The state of Louisiana’s 2015-16 budget is going to be $1.4 billion short, with 162 state government positions already eliminated and more to be discontinued starting from January. Contracts and projects are being either reduced or frozen in state agencies. According to the state’s chief economist Greg Albrecht, for every $1 fall in price of an annual average barrel of oil, Louisiana loses $12 million.
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  • Now according to Tom Runiewicz, a US industry economist at IHS Global Insight, if oil stays around $56 a barrel till the middle of the next year, companies providing services to oil and gas industry could lose 40,000 jobs by the end of 2015, while oil and gas equipment manufacturers could slash up to 6,000 jobs.
  • The situation in other oil-extracting states could be even worse. In a study published last year, the Council on Foreign Relations warned the largest job losses caused by sharp decline in oil prices are going to take place in North Dakota, Oklahoma and Wyoming, where the number of drilling rigs is decreasing.
  • Currently cheap fuel is still believed to be providing an overall boost to the US economy, as consumers can spend less on gasoline and more on shopping and services. But for the American energy sector the future looks less bright. It’s effecting places like Alaska, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas, the New York Times reports. US oil experts recall the 1980s oil price downturn, accompanied by economic disasters around the globe and arguably becoming one of the causes of the fall of the Soviet Union. Some experts are positive and say America’s oil-producing states won’t suffer too much because they “diversified their economies.”
  • These workers can earn more than $1,700 a week, much higher than the average $848 a week payment for other workers, the WSJ reported. When experienced workers lose their highly paid jobs, they stop paying their bills. There are also fears of a house-price slump. Fitch Ratings has already warned that with the price of oil continuing to plummet, home prices in Texas “may be unsustainable.”
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    The oil bubble is beginning to burst. Blowback. 
Paul Merrell

Moscow hosts the final Meeting before the Establishment of the EEU in January 2015 | ns... - 0 views

  • The Supreme Eurasian Economic Council convenes in the Russian capital Moscow on Tuesday, December 23. The summit will be the final meeting before the formal establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) on January 1, 2015 and the expected accession of Armenia and Kyrgyzstan on respectively January 2, and May 15, 2015.  The Council convenes in Moscow to add the finishing touches before the formal establishment of the EEU, which constitutes a customs, trade and consumer potential of more than 170 million people. The EEU is the largest economic union in the post-Soviet era, reports the Russian news agency Tass.
  • The news agency quoted the spokesman of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Yury Ushakov, as saying that the EEU is guided by the principles of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and that it will afford the free movement of goods, services, capital as well as labor force within the Union. The Supreme Eurasian Economic Council is, thus far, constituted by the heads of State of  Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. It is expected that the three heads of State also will make announcements pertaining the finalization of the procedures for the membership of Armenia as constituent of the EEU. Armenia is expected to join the EEU on January 2, 2015. Moreover, Kyrgyzstan is expected to join the Union on May 15, 2015 after the ratification of additional protocols.
  • A decision on the presidency over the EEU is also expected to be announced after the Council’s meeting on Tuesday. The presidency over the EEU will circulate in alphabetical order, said Ushakov. Another item on the agenda of the Council will be discussions on issues pertaining the cooperation between the EEU, its constituents, and foreign partners. In particular, are mentioned Egypt, India, Israel and Vietnam. Ushakov added that there also exist plans for the signing of cooperation memorandums with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) as well as with the Latin American MERCOSUR.
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    BRICS on the march.
Paul Merrell

Progressives put Sanders ahead of Clinton - 0 views

  • November 21, 2014
  • Sen. Elizabeth Warren is progressives' runaway favorite for president in 2016, with Sen. Bernie Sanders in second place, a new poll shows.Sanders, I-Vt., who says he's considering a presidential run, edged out former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, 24 percent to 23 percent, according to Democracy for America's first 2016 Presidential Pulse poll of its members.More than 42 percent of respondents wanted Warren to run for president, although she has said she's not running. Warren's strong showing wasn't a surprise, but Sanders' placement ahead of Clinton shows "the race for the Democratic nomination is far from locked" among progressives, according to the group, founded by former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean."If they decide to get in the race, our poll clearly shows that any number of candidates could win Democracy for America members' support, especially if they focus their campaign on combatting income inequality, the driving issue of the 2016 campaign," Charles Chamberlain, DFA's executive director said in a statement.
  • From Nov. 6-to18, the group's members cast 164,733 votes for potential candidates, with members able to rank their votes for up to three potential candidates. The group released a portion of the poll on Thursday.Behind Clinton came former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich at 3 percent and Vice President Joe Biden at 2 percent.
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    Note that this is a poll in a group that is loyal to the Democratic Party and confines itself to voting Democrat in the main elections. As such, their influence is negligible. Progressives who are willing to run spolier campaigns as independents, like Ralph Nader have far more potential to move the Democratic Party than those who stay within its fold.  Ditto for Tea Partiers and the Republican Party. What's needed is a coalition to form a new party based on areas of agreement, rather than the divide-and-conquer split between the two major "parties" that guarantees a bankster/War Party win. 
Paul Merrell

Price of Beef and Bacon Reach All-Time High | CNS News - 0 views

  • The price of beef and bacon hit its all-time high in the United States in June, according to data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). In January 1980, when BLS started tracking the price of these commodities, ground chuck cost $1.82 per pound and bacon cost $1.45 per pound. By this June 2014, ground chuck cost $3.91 per pound and bacon cost $6.11 per pound. A decade ago, in June 2004, a pound of ground chuck cost $2.49, which means that the commodity has increased by 57 percent since then. Bacon has increased by 78.7 percent from the $3.42 it cost in June 2004 to the $6.11 it costs now. In one month, beef increased from $3.85 in May 2014 to $3.91 in June 2014. Bacon increased from $6.05 in May 2014 to $6.11 in June 2014.
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    I vividly recall that around 1965, the price of T-Bone steak was generally in the range of 17-19 cents per pound. I don't remember the price of ground beef, but it was a lot less than that.   Inflation is the cruelest tax of all. 
Paul Merrell

Most Agencies Falling Short on Mandate for Online Records - 0 views

  • Nearly 20 years after Congress passed the Electronic Freedom of Information Act Amendments (E-FOIA), only 40 percent of agencies have followed the law's instruction for systematic posting of records released through FOIA in their electronic reading rooms, according to a new FOIA Audit released today by the National Security Archive at www.nsarchive.org to mark Sunshine Week. The Archive team audited all federal agencies with Chief FOIA Officers as well as agency components that handle more than 500 FOIA requests a year — 165 federal offices in all — and found only 67 with online libraries populated with significant numbers of released FOIA documents and regularly updated.
  • Congress called on agencies to embrace disclosure and the digital era nearly two decades ago, with the passage of the 1996 "E-FOIA" amendments. The law mandated that agencies post key sets of records online, provide citizens with detailed guidance on making FOIA requests, and use new information technology to post online proactively records of significant public interest, including those already processed in response to FOIA requests and "likely to become the subject of subsequent requests." Congress believed then, and openness advocates know now, that this kind of proactive disclosure, publishing online the results of FOIA requests as well as agency records that might be requested in the future, is the only tenable solution to FOIA backlogs and delays. Thus the National Security Archive chose to focus on the e-reading rooms of agencies in its latest audit. Even though the majority of federal agencies have not yet embraced proactive disclosure of their FOIA releases, the Archive E-FOIA Audit did find that some real "E-Stars" exist within the federal government, serving as examples to lagging agencies that technology can be harnessed to create state-of-the art FOIA platforms. Unfortunately, our audit also found "E-Delinquents" whose abysmal web performance recalls the teletype era.
  • E-Delinquents include the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the White House, which, despite being mandated to advise the President on technology policy, does not embrace 21st century practices by posting any frequently requested records online. Another E-Delinquent, the Drug Enforcement Administration, insults its website's viewers by claiming that it "does not maintain records appropriate for FOIA Library at this time."
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  • "The presumption of openness requires the presumption of posting," said Archive director Tom Blanton. "For the new generation, if it's not online, it does not exist." The National Security Archive has conducted fourteen FOIA Audits since 2002. Modeled after the California Sunshine Survey and subsequent state "FOI Audits," the Archive's FOIA Audits use open-government laws to test whether or not agencies are obeying those same laws. Recommendations from previous Archive FOIA Audits have led directly to laws and executive orders which have: set explicit customer service guidelines, mandated FOIA backlog reduction, assigned individualized FOIA tracking numbers, forced agencies to report the average number of days needed to process requests, and revealed the (often embarrassing) ages of the oldest pending FOIA requests. The surveys include:
  • The federal government has made some progress moving into the digital era. The National Security Archive's last E-FOIA Audit in 2007, " File Not Found," reported that only one in five federal agencies had put online all of the specific requirements mentioned in the E-FOIA amendments, such as guidance on making requests, contact information, and processing regulations. The new E-FOIA Audit finds the number of agencies that have checked those boxes is now much higher — 100 out of 165 — though many (66 in 165) have posted just the bare minimum, especially when posting FOIA responses. An additional 33 agencies even now do not post these types of records at all, clearly thwarting the law's intent.
  • The FOIAonline Members (Department of Commerce, Environmental Protection Agency, Federal Labor Relations Authority, Merit Systems Protection Board, National Archives and Records Administration, Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, Department of the Navy, General Services Administration, Small Business Administration, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, and Federal Communications Commission) won their "E-Star" by making past requests and releases searchable via FOIAonline. FOIAonline also allows users to submit their FOIA requests digitally.
  • THE E-DELINQUENTS: WORST OVERALL AGENCIES In alphabetical order
  • Key Findings
  • Excuses Agencies Give for Poor E-Performance
  • Justice Department guidance undermines the statute. Currently, the FOIA stipulates that documents "likely to become the subject of subsequent requests" must be posted by agencies somewhere in their electronic reading rooms. The Department of Justice's Office of Information Policy defines these records as "frequently requested records… or those which have been released three or more times to FOIA requesters." Of course, it is time-consuming for agencies to develop a system that keeps track of how often a record has been released, which is in part why agencies rarely do so and are often in breach of the law. Troublingly, both the current House and Senate FOIA bills include language that codifies the instructions from the Department of Justice. The National Security Archive believes the addition of this "three or more times" language actually harms the intent of the Freedom of Information Act as it will give agencies an easy excuse ("not requested three times yet!") not to proactively post documents that agency FOIA offices have already spent time, money, and energy processing. We have formally suggested alternate language requiring that agencies generally post "all records, regardless of form or format that have been released in response to a FOIA request."
  • Disabilities Compliance. Despite the E-FOIA Act, many government agencies do not embrace the idea of posting their FOIA responses online. The most common reason agencies give is that it is difficult to post documents in a format that complies with the Americans with Disabilities Act, also referred to as being "508 compliant," and the 1998 Amendments to the Rehabilitation Act that require federal agencies "to make their electronic and information technology (EIT) accessible to people with disabilities." E-Star agencies, however, have proven that 508 compliance is no barrier when the agency has a will to post. All documents posted on FOIAonline are 508 compliant, as are the documents posted by the Department of Defense and the Department of State. In fact, every document created electronically by the US government after 1998 should already be 508 compliant. Even old paper records that are scanned to be processed through FOIA can be made 508 compliant with just a few clicks in Adobe Acrobat, according to this Department of Homeland Security guide (essentially OCRing the text, and including information about where non-textual fields appear). Even if agencies are insistent it is too difficult to OCR older documents that were scanned from paper, they cannot use that excuse with digital records.
  • Privacy. Another commonly articulated concern about posting FOIA releases online is that doing so could inadvertently disclose private information from "first person" FOIA requests. This is a valid concern, and this subset of FOIA requests should not be posted online. (The Justice Department identified "first party" requester rights in 1989. Essentially agencies cannot use the b(6) privacy exemption to redact information if a person requests it for him or herself. An example of a "first person" FOIA would be a person's request for his own immigration file.) Cost and Waste of Resources. There is also a belief that there is little public interest in the majority of FOIA requests processed, and hence it is a waste of resources to post them. This thinking runs counter to the governing principle of the Freedom of Information Act: that government information belongs to US citizens, not US agencies. As such, the reason that a person requests information is immaterial as the agency processes the request; the "interest factor" of a document should also be immaterial when an agency is required to post it online. Some think that posting FOIA releases online is not cost effective. In fact, the opposite is true. It's not cost effective to spend tens (or hundreds) of person hours to search for, review, and redact FOIA requests only to mail it to the requester and have them slip it into their desk drawer and forget about it. That is a waste of resources. The released document should be posted online for any interested party to utilize. This will only become easier as FOIA processing systems evolve to automatically post the documents they track. The State Department earned its "E-Star" status demonstrating this very principle, and spent no new funds and did not hire contractors to build its Electronic Reading Room, instead it built a self-sustaining platform that will save the agency time and money going forward.
Paul Merrell

Lawmakers Say TPP Meetings Classified To Keep Americans in the Dark | Global Research - 0 views

  • US Trade Representative Michael Froman is drawing fire from Congressional Democrats for the Obama adminstration’s continued imposition of secrecy surrounding the Trans-Pacific Parternship. (Photo: AP file) Democratic lawmaker says tightly-controlled briefings on Trans-Pacific Partnership deal are aimed at keeping US constituents ignorant about what’s at stake Lawmakers in Congress who remain wary of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement are raising further objections this week to the degree of secrecy surrounding briefings on the deal, with some arguing that the main reason at least one meeting has been registered “classified” is to help keep the American public ignorant about giveaways to corporate interests and its long-term implications.
  • As The Hill reports: Members will be allowed to attend the briefing on the proposed trade pact with 12 Latin American and Asian countries with one staff member who possesses an “active Secret-level or high clearance” compliant with House security rules. Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) told The Hill that the administration is being “needlessly secretive.” “Even now, when they are finally beginning to share details of the proposed deal with members of Congress, they are denying us the ability to consult with our staff or discuss details of the agreement with experts,” DeLauro told The Hill. Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) condemned the classified briefing. “Making it classified further ensures that, even if we accidentally learn something, we cannot share it. What is [Froman]working so hard to hide? What is the specific legal basis for all this senseless secrecy?” Doggett said to The Hill. “Open trade should begin with open access,” Doggett said. “Members expected to vote on trade deals should be able to read the unredacted negotiating text.”
  • “I’m not happy about it,” Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) told the Huffington Post, referring to the briefing with Froman and Labor Secretary Thomas Perez on Wednesday. The meeting—focused on the section of the TPP that deals with the controversial ‘Investor-State Dispute Settlement’ (ISDS) mechanism—has been labeled “classified,” so that lawmakers and any of their staff who attend will be barred, under threat of punishment, of revealing what they learn with constituents or outside experts. According to the Huffington Post: ISDS has been part of U.S. free trade agreements since NAFTA was signed into law in 1993, and has become a particularly popular tool for multinational firms over the past few years. But while the topic remains controversial, particularly with Democrats, many critics of the administration emphasize that applying national security-style restrictions on such information is an abuse of the classified information system. An additional meeting earlier on Wednesday on currency manipulation with Froman and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew is not classified.
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  • Among its other critics, Sen. Elizabeth Warren has slammed the idea of ISDS provisions as a surrender of democratic ideals to corporate interests. According to Warren, ISDS would simply “tilt the playing field in the United States further in favor of big multinational corporations.” By having unchallenged input on secretive TPP talks, Warren argued last month, these large companies and financial interests “are increasingly realizing this is an opportunity to gut U.S. regulations they don’t like.” According to Grayson, putting Wednesday’s ISDS briefing in a classified setting “is part of a multi-year campaign of deception and destruction. Why do we classify information? It’s to keep sensitive information out of the hands of foreign governments. In this case, foreign governments already have this information. They’re the people the administration is negotiating with. The only purpose of classifying this information is to keep it from the American people.”
Paul Merrell

Pakistan TV Exposes bin Laden Killing Hoax and Documentary Exposes 9/11 Official Story ... - 0 views

  • Review of “September 11 – The New Pearl Harbor.”  A documentary by Massimo Mazzucco. David Ray Griffin There have been several good films and videos about 9/11. But the new film by award-winning film-maker Massimo Mazzucco is in a class by itself. For those of us who have been working on 9/11 for a long time, this is the film we have been waiting for. Whereas there are excellent films treating the falsity of particular parts of the official account, such as the Twin Towers or WTC 7, Mazzucco has given us a comprehensive documentary treatment of 9/11, dealing with virtually all of the issues. There have, of course, been films that treated the fictional official story as true. And there are films that use fictional stories to portray people’s struggles after starting to suspect the official story to be false. But there is no fiction in Mazzucco’s film – except in the sense that it clearly and relentlessly exposes every part of the official account as fictional.
  • Because of his intent at completeness, Mazzucco has given us a 5-hour film. It is so fascinating and fast-paced that many will want to watch it in one sitting. But this is not necessary, as the film, which fills 3 DVDs, consists of 7 parts, each of which is divided into many short chapters. These 7 parts treat Air Defence, The Hijackers, The Airplanes, The Pentagon, Flight 93, The Twin Towers, and Building 7. In each part, after presenting facts that contradict the official story, Mazzucco deals with the claims of the debunkers (meaning those who try to debunk the evidence provided by the 9/11 research community). The Introduction, reflecting the film’s title, deals with 12 uncanny parallels between Pearl Harbor and September 11. The film can educate people who know nothing about 9/11 (beyond the official story), those with a moderate amount of knowledge about the various problems with the official story, and even by experts. (I myself learned many things.) Mazzucco points out that his film covers 12 years of public debate about 9/11. People who have been promoting 9/11 truth for many of these years will see that their labors have been well-rewarded: There is now a high-quality, carefully-documented film that dramatically shows the official story about 9/11 to be a fabrication through and through. This is truly the film we have been waiting for.
  • Availability: The film is freely available to the world at: 1. The film-maker’s own website, complete with detailed index: http://www.luogocomune.net/site/modules/sections/index.php?op=viewarticle&artid=167 2. On YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1GCeuSr3Mk
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    High praise from David Ray Griffin. I watched the whole thing. Incredibly well-done debunking of those who attempt to defend the "official" version of what happened on 9-11.
Paul Merrell

Syria to revive Middle East's biggest Industrial Zone as Army consolidates Sovereignty ... - 0 views

  • After the Syrian Arab Army reestablished sovereignty over Syria’s biggest industrial zone, Sheikh Najjar, near Aleppo, it started the process of rebuilding the devastated and pillaged industrial powerhouse of the Middle East. The Syrian Arab Army also regained control over a number of other key locations in Aleppo, Homs, Daraa, Quneitra, Idleb, Lattakia and Deir Ez-Zor.  Almost all of the buildings in the Middle East’s biggest industrial zone of Sheikh Najjar have been devastated, factories have been pillaged, entire production facilities have been shipped to Turkey and “rebel/terrorist-held” territories to fuel and finance the foreign-backed insurgency.
  • Sheikh Najjar is located northeast of the city of Aleppo which  has seen heavy fighting in and around the city since the onset of the foreign-backed insurgency in 2011. Syrian economists noted that the war has caused a forty percent contraction of Syria’s economy, that some fifty percent of the labor force is unemployed and that the country has an inflation of about fifty percent. The Syrian government has implemented economic countermeasures, with some success, is about to open a market for the export of gold to other Middle Eastern countries, and has entered into long-term economic and reconstruction agreements with, among others, China. The Sheikh Najjar industrial zone employed some 42,000 people after it was opened in 2004, only three years before core NATO member states and Israel actively began preparing for the war on Syria. It was the home of some 1,250 companies when it opened in 2004 and was built with the capacity to host about 6,000.
  • The recapture and revival of the Sheikh Najjar Industrial Zone is a landmark victory and progress for the Syrian Arab Army, the elected Syrian government and for all those who participate in the peaceful political discourse. However, progress in all regions of the country is significant and contradicts western media reports, and governments, some of which call for an “intervention” and the support of “moderates” to bring peace and security to the country. As the US American historian Webster G. Tarpley noted, “there is no moderate opposition in Syria other than that which is in parliament and which participates in the Syrian political discourse”.
Paul Merrell

Controversies - Unions Successfully Beat Back Movement to De-Militarize Police - AllGov... - 0 views

  • Critics of the post-9/11 trend of militarizing police forces across the United States thought the controversy in Ferguson, Missouri, would provide the momentum to roll back the armoring up of officers. But then the police unions showed off their power in Washington and reform efforts fizzed. As Bloomberg’s David Weigel wrote, even one of the most outspoken opponents of the federal 1033 program, which provides military surplus equipment to law enforcement, suddenly stopped talking about demilitarizing the police after labor groups lobbied Congress. Senator Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) said in August: “We must demilitarize the police.” “The militarization of our law enforcement is due to an unprecedented expansion of government power in this realm,” Paul wrote in an op -ed. “It is one thing for federal officials to work in conjunction with local authorities to reduce or solve crime. It is quite another for them to subsidize it.”
  • Paul, however, has stopped making noise about changing 1033, as have other politicians. That’s because groups like the National Sheriffs Association and the Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) had their members make phone calls to senators and representatives telling them how important it was to use military-type weapons for public safety purposes. FOP Executive Director Jim Pasco told Weigel that the uproar over the shooting of Michael Brown was mostly “some members of Congress had kneejerk reactions to the optics of Ferguson or the rhetoric of Ferguson,” said Pasco. “They thought there was something problematic about the equipment they saw on the streets. In the intervening period, some of them have come to see that beauty is in the eye of the beholder. It’s not what the equipment looks like, it’s what its utility is,” Pasco said.
Joseph Skues

How Trade Deals Boost the Top 1% and Bust the Rest | Robert Reich - 0 views

  • Suppose that by enacting a particular law we'd increase the U.S. Gross Domestic Product. But almost all that growth would go to the richest 1 percent. The rest of us could buy some products cheaper than before. But those gains would be offset by losses of jobs and wages.This is pretty much what "free trade" has brought us over the last two decades.I used to believe in trade agreements. That was before the wages of most Americans stagnated and a relative few at the top captured just about all the economic gains.
  • The biggest things big American corporations sell overseas are ideas, designs, franchises, brands, engineering solutions, instructions, and software.Google, Apple, Uber, Facebook, Walmart, McDonalds, Microsoft, and Pfizer, for example, are making huge profits all over the world.But those profits don't depend on American labor -- apart from a tiny group of managers, designers, and researchers in the U.S.
  • According to Economic Policy Institute, the North American Free Trade Act cost U.S. workers almost 700,000 jobs, thereby pushing down American wages.
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  • Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, America's trade deficit with Korea has grown more than 80 percent, equivalent to a loss of more than 70,000 additional U.S. jobs.
  • The new-style global corporate agreements mainly enhance corporate and financial profits, and push down wages.
  • Trans Pacific Partnership -- the giant deal among countries responsible for 40 percent of the global economy.
  • also guard their overseas profits.
  • even more patent protection oversea
  • And it would allow them to challenge any nation's health, safety and environmental laws that stand in the way of their profits -- including our own.
  • White House strategists seem to think such corporations are accountable to the U.S. government. Wrong. At most, they're answerable to their shareholders, who demand high share prices whatever that requires.
Paul Merrell

What Sanctions? The Russian Economy Is Growing Again - 0 views

  • Six months ago, the price of oil—the lifeblood of the Russian economy—began to crater, and U.S.-led sanctions, implemented in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in Ukraine, were biting. Russia’s currency, the ruble, buckled, and capital flight began to accelerate as rich but nervous Russians moved more and more money out of the country. It seemed plausible then to wonder: Could Vladimir Putin be losing his grip? Might economic pressure be enough to rein him in, or even lead to his downfall?Today, the answer is becoming clear—and it’s not the one the West was hoping for. Not only is Putin still standing, but the Russian economy, against most expectations, is recovering. Its stock market is one of the best performing globally this year; the ruble, after losing nearly half its value against the dollar over the course of a year, is rebounding; interest rates have come down from their post-sanctions peak; the government is taking in more revenue than its own forecast expected; and foreign exchange reserves have risen nearly $10 billion from their post-crisis low.
  • The lower price of oil still hurts. Citicorp economists estimate that every $10 decline in the price of Brent crude shaves 2 percent from Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP). Further declines—not out of the question, given that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest and lowest-cost producer, is still pumping record amounts of crude—will crimp growth even more. But those same Citicorp economists forecast that GDP, after contracting for the past 18 months, could now begin to grow at up to 3.5 percent per year, even without a recovery in crude prices.
  • Though better run than many Russian firms, Severstal is not an outlier. According to data from Bloomberg, some 78 percent of Russian companies on the MICEX index showed greater revenue growth in the most recent quarter than their global peers did. And Russian companies on the whole are now more profitable than their peers on the MSCI Emerging Markets index.What’s bailing out Moscow? For the second time in two decades, Russia is showing that while a sharp drop in its currency’s value does bring financial pain—it raises prices for imports and makes any foreign debt Russia or its companies have taken on that much more expensive in ruble terms—it also eventually produces textbook economic benefits. Since a devaluation raises import prices, it also paves the way for what economists call “import substitution,” a clunky way to say that consumers switch to buying less pricey products produced at home instead of imported goods.
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  • For companies such as Severstal, which exports nearly 20 percent of its output, the benefits of devaluation are obvious: All of the costs that go into producing steel in Russia—iron ore, manganese, nickel, labor, electricity—are priced in rubles. That means the companies’ costs relative to their international competitors’ have plummeted. At the same time, any steel they sell abroad is priced in either U.S. dollars or euros—both of which have risen in value against the ruble. When the companies bring those sales dollars home, they are worth far more in rubles than they were a year ago.The same phenomenon applies in a big way to Russia’s vast energy sector. Moscow exports huge amounts of oil and gas, and brings in dollars for it. That’s why Rosneft, a huge oil producer with close ties to Putin’s Kremlin, reported a revenue increase of 18 percent last year, compared with an increase of less than 1 percent for its international competitors, according to Bloomberg data. This is a big part of the reason why Russia’s tax revenue has not fallen off a cliff, mitigating somewhat the pain of last year’s crisis. Russia’s oil output is still near record highs—one of the reasons, along with continued full-tilt Saudi output, that prices remain so weak.
  • The world shouldn’t have been surprised by what has happened. More or less the same thing happened in 1998, when the Asian financial crisis spread to Russia and Moscow both defaulted on its international debt and devalued the ruble. There was an immediate negative economic shock, followed by an import substitution-led recovery that was sharper than most international economists at the time believed would occur. “This argues for an economic recovery now similar in nature, if not necessarily in magnitude, to the one after 1998,” says Ivan Tchakarov, an economist at Citicorp.
  • When oil prices crumbled last year, there was a fair bit of hope in Western capitals that the pain would do what sanctions hadn’t yet: force a Russian climbdown in Ukraine, and perhaps prompt Putin to turn back inward and tend to his troubles at home.Maybe that was wishful thinking. Whatever the case, it’s now a moot point. The Russian economy is showing enough resilience that it appears unlikely to check Putin’s behavior abroad. Public opinion surveys at home provide little evidence that the people have turned on him. For Washington and its allies, the time for wishful thinking is over. Vladimir Putin is not going anywhere. 
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