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After almost two decades of discussion, the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) will be proclaimed on 31st December. The AEC is a potentially significant and competitive economic region, should it be allowed to develop according to the aspiration of being a “single market and production base, with free flow of services, investments, and labour, by the year 2020”.

The ASEAN region as a composite trading block has the third highest population at 634 million, after China and India. GDP per capita is rapidly rising. The AEC would be the 4th largest exporter after China, the EU, and the United States, with still very much scope for growth from Cambodia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Vietnam from a diverse range of activities ranging from agriculture, food, minerals and commodities, electronics, and services. The coming AEC is already the 4th largest importer of goods after the United States, EU, and China, making it one of the biggest markets in the world. Unlike the other trade regions, the AEC still has so much potential for growth with rising population, rising incomes, growing consumer sophistication, and improving infrastructure. Perhaps the biggest benefit of the upcoming AEC is the expected boost this will give to intra-ASEAN trade. Most ASEAN nations have previously put their efforts into developing external relationships with the major trading nations like the EU, Japan and the US through bilateral and free trade agreements. To some extent, the potential of intra-ASEAN trade was neglected, perhaps with the exception of the entrepot of Singapore. The AEC is an opportunity to refocus trade efforts within the region, especially when Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia are rapidly developing, and Myanmar is opening up for business with the rest of the region.

There are no integrated banking structures, no agreement on common and acceptable currencies (some ASEAN currencies are not interchangeable), no double taxation agreements, and no formal agreements on immigration. There is not even any such thing as a common ASEAN business visa. These issues are going to hinder market access for regional SMEs. Any local market operations will have to fulfil local laws and regulations which may not be easy for non-citizens to meet and adhere to. Even though there are some preferential tariffs for a number of classes of ASEAN originating goods, non-tariff barriers are still in existence, which are insurmountable in some cases like the need for import licenses (APs) in Malaysia, and the need to have a registered company which can only be formed by Thai nationals within Thailand. Some of these problems are occurring because of the very nature of ASEAN itself. ASEAN was founded on the basis of consultation, consensus, and non-interference in the internal affairs of other members. This means that no formal problem solving mechanism exists, and the ASEAN Secretariat is a facilitator rather than implementer of policy. Illegal workers, human trafficking, money laundering, and haze issues between member states have no formal mechanisms through which these issues can be solved from an ASEAN perspective. This weakens the force for regional integration.

New Zealand is conducting covert surveillance operations against some of its strongest trading partners and has obtained sophisticated malware to infect targeted computers and steal data, newly released documents reveal. The country’s eavesdropping agency, Government Communications Security Bureau, or GCSB, is carrying out the surveillance across the Asia-Pacific region and beyond as part of its membership in the Five Eyes, a spying alliance that includes New Zealand as well as the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia. The documents, revealed on Tuesday by the New Zealand Herald in collaboration with The Intercept, expose more details about the scope of New Zealand’s involvement in the Five Eyes, and show that the agency’s reach extends far beyond its previously reported eavesdropping on at least ten small South Pacific nations and territories. According to secret files from the National Security Agency, obtained by The Intercept from whistleblower Edward Snowden, GCSB is targeting about 20 different nations and territories in total and sharing the intercepted data with the NSA. A top-secret document dated from April 2013 notes that the New Zealand agency “provides [the NSA with] collection on China, Japanese/North Korean/Vietnamese/South American diplomatic communications, South Pacific Island nations, Pakistan, India, Iran, and Antarctica.”

Aside from eavesdropping on communications through traditional interception methods, such as by capturing signals as they are passing between satellites or phone cables, the New Zealand agency has also become directly involved in more aggressive methods of spying and cyberwar. The newly revealed documents show that it has obtained a malware tool that is part of a platform named WARRIORPRIDE, used by the NSA and other Five Eyes agencies to hack into computers and smartphones, infect them with a bug, and then steal data. The documents note that GCSB “has a WARRIORPRIDE capability that can collect against an ASEAN target.” ASEAN, or Association of Southeast Asian Nations, may be a reference to New Zealand’s operations targeting Vietnam. The surveillance being conducted by the GCSB shines light on a secret variant of New Zealand’s foreign policy that contrasts with its official public foreign policy. Vietnam, for instance, has friendly relations with New Zealand and is a growing trading partner. The New Zealand government describes its relationship with Vietnam as having “flourished in the last 15 years.” The country poses no security or terrorist threat to New Zealand, the traditional explanation for GCSB operations given to the public. Yet its government is still on the GCSB spying list and its diplomatic communications have been eavsedropped on, likely in violation of the 1961 Vienna Convention of Diplomatic Relations, an international treaty ratified by New Zealand that says diplomats’ correspondence is “inviolable.”

The Supreme Eurasian Economic Council convenes in the Russian capital Moscow on Tuesday, December 23. The summit will be the final meeting before the formal establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) on January 1, 2015 and the expected accession of Armenia and Kyrgyzstan on respectively January 2, and May 15, 2015.  The Council convenes in Moscow to add the finishing touches before the formal establishment of the EEU, which constitutes a customs, trade and consumer potential of more than 170 million people. The EEU is the largest economic union in the post-Soviet era, reports the Russian news agency Tass.

The news agency quoted the spokesman of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Yury Ushakov, as saying that the EEU is guided by the principles of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and that it will afford the free movement of goods, services, capital as well as labor force within the Union. The Supreme Eurasian Economic Council is, thus far, constituted by the heads of State of  Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. It is expected that the three heads of State also will make announcements pertaining the finalization of the procedures for the membership of Armenia as constituent of the EEU. Armenia is expected to join the EEU on January 2, 2015. Moreover, Kyrgyzstan is expected to join the Union on May 15, 2015 after the ratification of additional protocols.

A decision on the presidency over the EEU is also expected to be announced after the Council’s meeting on Tuesday. The presidency over the EEU will circulate in alphabetical order, said Ushakov. Another item on the agenda of the Council will be discussions on issues pertaining the cooperation between the EEU, its constituents, and foreign partners. In particular, are mentioned Egypt, India, Israel and Vietnam. Ushakov added that there also exist plans for the signing of cooperation memorandums with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) as well as with the Latin American MERCOSUR.

In a rare episode, US meddling has broken the surface recently with complaints across NED’s network of faux human rights advocates and the Western media over the arrest of Nguyen Dinh NgocFirst appeared: http://journal-neo.org/2015/01/03/washington-s-quiet-proxy-war-against-vietnam/

It is becoming clear that US influence – despite its “pivot toward Asia” – is waning across the Asia Pacific region. Washington has suffered geopolitical setbacks in virtually every nation in Asia Pacific, including those now led by regimes it has meticulously organized, funded, and backed for decades. It is also waning, however, among those nations considered long-time and crucial US allies. This includes Southeast Asia’s Thailand, whom the US repeatedly reminds the world has been Washington’s ally since the Cold War and America’s war in Vietnam, and allegedly, even before that. Washington’s Waning Influence is Based on Floundering Fundamentals   However, in reality, Thailand has incrementally dismantled American influence over it, and has diversified its trade and cooperation with a large variety of nations – including China – as a means of depending on ties with no single nation in particular. Thailand’s economic trade is focused primarily within Asia, with the majority of its imports and exports divided equally between China, Japan, and ASEAN, with the West collectively representing a smaller – though not insignificant – market. It is no coincidence that Thailand’s geopolitical ties thus reflect its economic ties around the world – revealing that economic and sociopolitical realities are driving intentional relations regardless of the vast array of “soft power” means at Washington’s disposal. A look at Thailand’s military inventories reveals a similar strategy of diversifying weapon acquisitions and partnerships as well as developing systems through indigenous industry. What used to be a military dominated by American hardware and military exercises, is transforming with the acquisition of Chinese tanks, European warplanes, Middle Eastern assault rifles, Russian helicopters, and Thai-made armored vehicles – as well as joint drills held with a variety of nations, including for the first time, China. A similar shift is occurring throughout the rest of Asia, with China naturally assuming a large share of regional cooperation due to its geographic, economic, and demographic size. http://journal-neo.org/2016/10/24/us-attempts-to-shame-asia-for-caving-to-china/

Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott is expected to say no to Chinese President Xi about joining the new Chinese-led Asia Infrastructure Development Bank (AIIB) when he will meet Xi at the ASEAN summit in Beijing this week. Abbott’s no to joining the bank would come against the advise of Australian treasurer Joe Hockey and after intense U.S. pressure for Australia to reject the proposed participation.

The decision to reject Australia’s participation in the 21 nation regional bank was made during a session of the Australian government’s National Security Committee and was explained as a “decision made on strategic grounds”. The decision has been criticized by several of Australia’s leading experts on economy. The Asian Development Bank  (ADB) estimated in 2011 that Asia would require some US$750 per year through 2020 to meet the needs for regional infrastructure development. In 2012 the ADB merely lent US$7.5 billion reported Australia’s Treasury.

A growing number of regional governments including Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Laos, Myanmar and many other are gravitating towards China as China increasingly opens up its economy and banking system for foreign businesses and investment.