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Fortunately, even if Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling, a default on our debt need not follow when our borrowings reach their limit in the next few months. I intend to introduce legislation to make sure of this. For months, some political leaders and commentators have argued that failure to raise the debt ceiling would necessarily cause the U.S. to default on its debt. President Obama's Council of Economic Advisors chairman, Austan Goolsbee, recently warned, "If we get to the point where you've damaged the full faith and credit of the United States, that would be the first default in history caused purely by insanity. I don't see why anybody's talking about playing chicken with the debt ceiling." In fact, if Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling, the federal government will still have far more than enough money to fully service our debt. Next year, for instance, about 6.5% of all projected federal government expenditures will go to interest on our debt, and tax revenue is projected to cover about 67% of all government expenditures. With roughly 10 times more income than needed to honor our debt obligations, why would we ever default? To make absolutely sure, I intend to introduce legislation that would require the Treasury to make interest payments on our debt its first priority in the event that the debt ceiling is not raised. This would not only ensure the continued confidence of investors at home and abroad, but would enable us to have an honest debate about the consequences of our eventual decision about the debt ceiling.

"Our examination of the future of public debt leads us to several important conclusions. First, fiscal problems confronting industrial economies are bigger than suggested by official debt figures that show the implications of the financial crisis and recession for fiscal balances. As frightening as it is to consider public debt increasing to more than 100% of GDP, an even greater danger arises from a rapidly ageing population. The related unfunded liabilities are large and growing, and should be a central part of today's long-term fiscal planning. "It is essential that governments not be lulled into complacency by the ease with which they have financed their deficits thus far. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the path of future output is likely to be permanently below where we thought it would be just several years ago. As a result, government revenues will be lower and expenditures higher, making consolidation even more difficult. But, unless action is taken to place fiscal policy on a sustainable footing, these costs could easily rise sharply and suddenly. "Second, large public debts have significant financial and real consequences. The recent sharp rise in risk premia on long-term bonds issued by several industrial countries suggests that markets no longer consider sovereign debt low-risk. The limited evidence we have suggests default risk premia move up with debt levels and down with the revenue share of GDP as well as the availability of private saving. Countries with a relatively weak fiscal system and a high degree of dependence on foreign investors to finance their deficits generally face larger spreads on their debts. This market differentiation is a positive feature of the financial system, but it could force governments with weak fiscal systems to return to fiscal rectitude sooner than they might like or hope. "Third, we note the risk that persistently high levels of public debt will drive down capital accumulation, productivity growth and lon

Key Stat: The amount of the government's revenues that must go towards paying interest. The U.S. already has more debt than it can afford, which puts it at an enormous risk of a debt and currency collapse.  ... Our "short term" debt means we'll have to "roll over" roughly $4 trillion in the next 30 months. That's in addition to funding another $3 trillion or so in additional annual deficits. As of today, China is a net seller of Treasury debt. If we can't fund our debts in the bond market, the Federal Reserve will be forced to monetize our deficits by buying Treasury bonds. If that happens, inflation will soar and the price of gold will double or triple almost overnight. By the end of OBAMA!'s first presidency (2013), I believe the U.S. will owe roughly: $17.8 trillion in federal debt, $2 trillion in GSE debt/guarantees, $500 billion in FDIC obligations, and $500 billion in FHA obligations. My only big assumption is $1.5 trillion in additional deficits each year, which is what the president's budget also predicts.  Right now, it costs the U.S. government almost 5% to borrow for 30 years. Let's assume the blended borrowing cost goes to that amount - which is well below the government's average borrowing costs since 1980. That would equal $1 trillion in interest payments due, per year. That's 100% of all income taxes paid in 2009. This amount of debt isn't sustainable. Felix Zulauf, one of Europe's top money managers, "Eventually the U.S. will arrive at the point where, as Marc Faber says, interest payments on government debt all of a sudden go to 20%, 25%, 30% of tax revenue. And once you go above 30%, you are done. You go into default or your currency breaks down and your system collapses."  act now to protect yourself. If you wait until the last minute to get your assets out of the U.S., you'll never make it.

Two articles about China taking over America appeared today on the American Conservative web site. Incredible stuff. The first deals with the dollar, and how China plans on replacing it. The second article is focused on the Chinese take over of businesss and American assets, including American land. At the heart of both articles is the problem of out of control US DEBT tha tis destroying this country. Intro: "On the global financial stage, China is playing chess while the U.S. is playing checkers, and the Chinese are now accelerating their long-term plan to dethrone the U.S. dollar.  You see, the truth is that China does not plan to allow the U.S. financial system to dominate the world indefinitely.  Right now, China is the number one exporter on the globe and China will have the largest economy on the planet at some point in the coming years.  The Chinese would like to see global currency usage reflect this shift in global economic power.  At the moment, most global trade is conducted in U.S. dollars and more than 60 percent of all global foreign exchange reserves are held in U.S. dollars.  This gives the United States an enormous built-in advantage, but thanks to decades of incredibly bad decisions this advantage is starting to erode.  And due to the recent political instability in Washington D.C., the Chinese sense vulnerability.  China has begun to publicly mock the level of U.S. debt, Chinese officials have publicly threatened to stop buying any more U.S. debt, the Chinese have started to aggressively make currency swap agreements with other major global powers, and China has been accumulating unprecedented amounts of gold.  All of these moves are setting up the moment in the future when China will completely pull the rug out from under the U.S. dollar. Today, the U.S. financial system is the core of the global financial system.  Because nearly everybody uses the U.S. dollar to buy oil and to trade with one another, this cre

Good primer on world economics.  First of a three part series, focusing on the basic economic terms and the certain bankruptcy-default of Greece.  Short explanation of the Euro  "Greek Bailout" dance we see today, and how it all about buying time for Big Euro Banksters to unload their Greek debt before the inevitable collapse. excerpt: The measure you're seeing frequently, especially in reference to Greece is "debt to GDP", or the amount of sovereign debt - debt guaranteed by the "full faith and credit" of a nation - compared to the nation's GDP. Anything over 120% is generally considered "not sustainable", in other words the country is in a position where they will not be able to make the interest payments on their debt and will likely default unless drastic measures are taken. Greece is running about 160%. Here's an important note. Look back at the definition of GDP and take special note that one of the elements of it is government spending. In other words, the federal government has the ability to impact the GDP - and create the perception of economic growth and stability - by borrowing money and increasing spending - and governments across the world, including the US, have been doing it for decades. OK. let's talk about Greece. And why a little country in the Mediterranean is getting all this attention. Greece is a socialist country whose population is declining at a rapid rate and whose government employees, who represent 10% of their workforce, are retiring at rapid pace with fixed retirement benefits that approach what they were making when they worked. Right now Greece spends 12% of their GDP on public pensions and that's going to go up dramatically because their population is aging rapidly. Their public debt, held primarily by other European countries and the European Central Bank (ECB) is running 160% of their GDP and their last round of bond sales produced interest rates of 17%. Their problem is exacerbated by the fa

Interview with former Assistant Treasury Secretary, Paul Craig Roberts. He comments on the relationship between the Debt Limit Crisis, and the "Continuity of Government Plan" that would be triggered by a catastrophic emergency. The triggering of the Continuity of Government plan would result in the end of our Constitution. There is no provision in the Constitution for any kind of "Continuity of Government" plan. Especially a plan that would suspend or infringe in any way on the rights and liberties of individual Americans. Nothing!! "You can forget about any default in the debt ceiling crisis.  Former Assistant Treasury Secretary Dr. Paul Craig Roberts says, "The debt ceiling will be raised.  No government wants to lose its power or lose its ability to borrow.  So, if they don't raise the debt ceiling, it is just a way of Washington committing hari-kari.  It simply removes the United States as a super power."  Dr. Roberts goes on to say, "If they don't make a deal, one of two things will happen. . . . The Federal Reserve, on its own authority, lends the Treasury the money. . . . The other alternative, Obama . . . can simply declare a national emergency and raise the debt ceiling on his own initiative.  He could govern as a dictator." What would happen if the U.S. did default?  Dr. Roberts says, "The danger of default is the rest of the world dumps dollars.  If they dump dollars, the Fed loses control, the whole system blows up.  The banks fail.  The bond market collapses.  The stock market won't go down 1,500 points; it would be cut in half. " No matter what happens, there is still an enormous and growing debt.  Dr. Roberts contends, "The situation is unsustainable."  It will blow up at some point, and Dr. Roberts predicts, "It will be worse than the Great Depression because in the Great Depression, prices fell along with employment.  Now, prices will be rising and employment would be falling. . . . Gold and silver prices

Later in the article, the reasoning behind the argument that 3/4 of the debt is unconstitutional: the Puerto Rico legislature ignored a constitutional provision limiting annual debt to 15% of revenue, creating a dodgy organization serviced by a sales tax to evade the limit.   'Twould be pleasant to see some vulture capitalists get burned. 

Half way decent expose of those criminals at the S&P credit rating and risk analysis sham.  These clowns should be in jail for what they did with mortgage securities!  One thing the article doesn't mention is that without the S&P triple A credit ratings on the fraudulent mortgage security instruments, main street America 401K, city, state and county investment funds, and the bulk of pension funds could not have been invested in those phony securities.  Forget the Bankster losses and the taxpayers $23 Trillion bailout of the Banksters.  Real Americans got wiped out because of those phony triple A ratings! Another point missed in this article is that Dodd-Frank is designed for massive extortion instead of massive imprisonment, fines and retribution for criminal actions.  The way it works is that the Bankster pony up a billion plus in campaign funds, and the elected criminals pass on the prosecution of criminal violations and reporting failures.  Easy money for the ruling class.  And who pays the S&P's of the world anyway?  Right, the Banksters! Conclusion: It's becoming more and more obvious that Standard and Poor's has a political agenda riding on the notion that the US is at risk of default on its debt based on some arbitrary limit to the debt-to-GDP ratio. There is no sound basis for that limit, or for S&P's insistence on at least a $4 trillion down payment on debt reduction, any more than there is for the crackpot notion that a non-crazy US can be forced to default on its debt. Whatever S&P's agenda, it has nothing to do with avoiding default risks or putting the US on sound fiscal footing. It appears to be intertwined with their attempts to absolve themselves from responsibility for their role in the 2008 financial crisis, and they are willing to manipulate not only the 2012 election but the world economy to escape the SEC's attempts to regulate them. It's time the media and Congress started asking Standard and Poors what their political a

Why are Markets still Falling? The Tsunami caused by Derivatives and Deleveraging The invisible elephant in the room causing continuous falls in global financial markets is the link to the privately traded Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and the financial uncertainty they have created whilst synchronised deleveraging takes place across the world. ... Credit default swaps are unregulated financial derivatives which act as debt insurance on risky assets like mortgages, corporate and government bonds. But unlike a normal insurance policy, financial institutions that sell credit default swaps are not required to have enough funds in reserve should those risky loans turn bad. Since the US Congress in 2000 declined to regulate these contracts as it does insurance, the companies that guarantee the assets are not required by law to keep enough capital on hand to pay them off in the event of a default.

The Constitution gives Congress power over the national purse, permitting it to tax, to spend and "to borrow money on the credit of the United States." From the time of the founding until the passage of the First Liberty Bond Act in 1917, Congress itself voted on each and every new government bond issue, specifying the amount to be borrowed and the terms involved. Today, exercise of this power has been delegated to the Treasury Department, which generally can borrow up to the debt limit. Yet this practice can easily be changed. It wouldn't even be necessary to repeal the existing "debt ceiling" statutory framework, an action that President Obama might well veto. Congress can simply refuse to use it. In other words, Congress cannot renege on debt already incurred, but it can condition, decrease and even stop issuance of new U.S. debt. This strategy would put Congress's fiscal conservatives very much back in the driver's seat. The need for new government borrowing is constant; currently nearly 40 cents of every dollar the government spends is borrowed. Anytime Congress and the president cannot agree on how new borrowing should be accomplished (and for what purposes), and what additional spending cuts should be implemented to avoid increasing the nation's overall debt burden, spending will simply be cut across the board by 40%. That is one very big incentive for agreement. Of course, were Congress to reclaim this authority and separately approve each new U.S. debt issue, it would once again be directly responsible for government borrowing in a way that it has avoided for nearly 100 years. With political power comes political accountability.

Excellent article Paul! But it left me in tears. The bastardos are destroying the currency. Quick Count of The U.S. defaulting on its debt obligations: ... Continental Currency in 1779 ... Domestic debt between 1782 through 1790 ... Greenbacks in 1862 ... Liberty Bonds in 1934 ... 1933 Dollar to GOLD devaluation (1/35 th per ounce) ... 1971 Nixon ends GOLD backing of dollar, violating the terms of the Bretton Woods Agreement ... 1979 Treasury defaults, refusing to redeem maturing treasury bonds The only thing keeping the American Economy going is the massive rush to convert the fiat currency the Federal Reserve is churning out into hard assets; like land and corporate stock. In 2008 the Federal Reserve Bankster Cartel pumped $29 Trillion into the world banking system. They continue to pump $85 Billion per month into Bankster financial markets, buying up bad mortgage paper and backstopping the many insured derivatives scams now unwinding. The Banksters were bust in 2008, but are now flush with more dollars than anyone knows what to do with. Instead of "loaning" this money out, and investing in traditional business productivity, they use the freshly minted dollars to purchase hard assets. Business loans would provide profit based on interest - a gambit that requires confidence in the value of the dollar since the dollar is the measure of the economic reward. The purchase of hard assets is different. The "value" is not in the profitability of the investment, as measured in fiat currency. The value is in hard asset and any future economic power that asset holds through the expected currency crash. The only mystery here is that of military might. How do the banksters and global elites protect their assets in the future collapse they have made certain? Oh wait - private security companies capable of waging war. It's no accident that the early geopolitical energy wars of the 21st century saw a massive buildup of private corporate military and i

" Remember when Goldman Sachs - dubbed by Matt Taibbi the Vampire Squid - sold derivatives to Greece so the government could conceal its debt, then bet against that debt, driving it up? It seems that the ubiquitous investment bank has also put the squeeze on California and its school districts. Not that Goldman was alone in this; but the unscrupulous practices of the bank once called the undisputed king of the municipal bond business epitomize the culture of greed that has ensnared students and future generations in unrepayable debt."

Nassim Taleb and his hedge-fund partner Mark Spitznagel weigh in in the FT with an analysis of the world's problem (too much debt) and a reasonable solution (convert some of the debt to equity).  Taleb explains how banks can end the mortgage crisis, lowering monthly mortgage payments by converting mortgage debt to equity: Excerpt: The only solution is to transform debt into equity across all sectors, in an organised and systematic way. Instead of sending hate mail to near-insolvent homeowners, banks should reach out to borrowers and offer lower interest payments in exchange for equity. Instead of debt becoming "binary" - in default or not - it could take smoothly-varying prices and banks would not need to wait for foreclosures to take action. Banks would turn from "hopers", hiding risks from themselves, into agents more engaged in economic activity. Excellent excellent excellent!

Business Insiders John Carney describes what happened at evil doer, AIG. In describing the black hole that is swallowing up endless volumes of taxpayer wealth, Carney points out that AIG is a channel for redistributing American wealth to International Bankers. ".... In last summer's blockbuster "The Dark Knight," the Joker invites one of the top crime lords of Gotham City to the rundown warehouse where he has stashed his ill-gotten gains. The mobster stares in awe at the huge stack of money the arch-criminal has amassed. But a moment later, his awe turns to horror as the Joker sets the money aflame. "This town deserves a better class of criminal," he explains. The exchange reveals the deep evil of the Joker. Unlike a common criminal, he doesn't just want to steal money from others. He wants to destroy their wealth....... At the heart of AIG's problems is a financial product called a credit default swap, which is really just an insurance contract on debt. If a borrower failed to pay off a loan fully, an investor protected by a credit default swap would be able to collect the outstanding amount from the insurance company. The idea was that credit default swaps would reduce the risk to any investor who bought bonds. In the best of worlds, they would reduce risk throughout the financial system by spreading out the costs of defaults. But that's not how things worked out. Instead, credit default swaps came to be used by banks in a way that no one anticipated-to avoid banking regulations. And AIG decided to get into the business of enabling this scheme...... "

No doubt the Banksters have a plan, and we're watching it role out before our very eyes. The national debt ceiling crisis is the plan! Whether Congress approves or shoots down an increase in the borrowing limit of the government, the Banksters win.  If the the debt limit is raised, the Banksters win in that they can unload that $16.1 Trillion in free taxpayer money at a minimum of 3.25% interest through new Treasury bond initiatives forced by uncontrolled increases in government spending.  They also win in that their hand maiden credit agencies, having insisted on Congressional spending cuts of $4 Trill that are not going to materialize, WILL downgrade the USA credit rating. This will result in interest rates much higher than 3.25%!!! Cha Ching! If the outcome is no debt increase, there will be a constitutional crisis beyond imagination. Banksters always win in a crisis because panicked citizens will trade their constitutionally guaranteed liberty, freedoms and property rights for security and calm. This perhaps translates into a long term cha ching for th eBanksters that will have them owning America. The one outcome where the Banksters don't gain, would be where the debt ceiling is raised enough to cover the obligations of the continuing resolution, but includes serious and immediate across the board spending cuts, caps on future spending increases, and the end of base line budgeting through a Balanced Budget Amendment. Like the CCB; Cut, Cap and Balanced Budget bill the House of Representatives ahs already passed

Cut to the chase explanation of Austrian economics:  Banksters and their IMF collection arm want to roll over the sovereign debt of EU nations (PIIGS), subsidized by tax paying citizens.  The Banksters want the Sovereign debt of a few nations "nationalized" so that the loses are shared by the entire EU - and taken off the Bankster books. The Austrian economics handbook says that these Sovereign debters should go into default immediately, and declare bankruptcy.  The Banksters should take the hit for making the bad loans in the first place.  No bailouts. 75% of German tax payers support the Austrian plan!

Charles takes a look at the sudden rise in the stock market, and comes up with a surprising conclusion; these are signs that the collapse of Greece is imminent.  His explanation of  options and derivatives (CDS) is delightful and easy to understand.  But the consequences of what the wizards of smart have done here is staggering.  Read this and you'll know the facts driving the frantic but clever manuevers behind the scenes. And what does Cahrles recommend for Greece?  Do us all a favor and do EXACTLY what the tax payers in Iceland did - shut the idiots down.  Do not allow the politicians to bail out their Bankser buddies with your money.  Do not take on more debt.  Defaut now, fully, totally and without compromise.  Capitalism works.  Maybe not for Banksters and their lady boi politicians.  But it works for the taxpaying citizens who had no idea what kind of a hole the criminal masterminds were digging for them.... excerpt: Greece, please do the world a favor and openly default--right now, today. Declare a default and pay nothing. Force the shadow banking system to recognize a default and bring down the entire rotten heap of worm-eaten corruption.  At that point, there will be no reason to buy equities.

In related news, the nation's largest coal company, Peabody Coal, just filed for bankruptcy. Several other coal companies already have, indicative of plummeting markets and prices for coal.