The Vineyard of the Saker: The significance of the Russian decision to move the humanit... - 0 views
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It appears that the Russians got tired of waiting. I suggest that you all carefully parse the Statement of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs I posted earlier today. This is an interesting document because besides an explanation of the Russian decision to move it, it is also, potentially, a legal defense or an unprecedented Russian decision: to overtly violate the Ukrainian sovereignty. Let me explain. First, the case of Crimea was also a "special case". The Russian were legally present there and, in the Russian rationale, all the "Polite Armed Men in Green" did was to protect the local population to make it possible for the latter to freely express its will. Only after that will was expressed did Russia agree to formally re-incorporate Crimea into Russia. So from the legal Russian point of view, none of the Russian actions in Crimea included any form of violation of Ukrainian sovereignty. I know, most western analyst will not agree, but that is the official Russian stance. And official stances are important because they form the basis for a legal argument.
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Second, the aid which Russia has been sending to Novorussia has been exclusively covert. Covert operations, no matter their magnitude, do not form the basis for a legal position. The official position of Moscow has been that not only was there absolutely no military aid to Novorussia, but even when Ukie artillery shells landed inside Russia did the Kremlin authorize any retaliation, again in (official) deference to the Ukrainian national sovereignty. This time, however, there is no doubt at all that the Russians did deliberately and officially chose to ignore Kiev and move in. Now, in fact, in reality, this is clearly the logically, politically and morally right thing to do. But in legal terms, this clearly a violation of Ukrainian sovereignty. From a legal point of view, the Ukies had the right to keep the Russian convoy at the border for another 10'000 years if they wanted and Russia had no legal right to simply move in. What apparently happened this morning is that the Ukie officials did not even bother showing up, so the Kremlin just said "forget it!" and ordered the trucks in.
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The US and their main agent in Kiev, Nalivaichenko, immediately and correctly understood the threat: not only did this convoy bring much needed humanitarian aid to Lugansk, it also provided a fantastic political and legal "cover" for future Russian actions inside Novorussia. And by "actions" I don't necessarily mean military actions, although that is now clearly and officially possible. I also mean legal actions such as recognizing Novorussia. From their point of view, Obama, Poroshenko, Nalivaichenko are absolutely correct to be enraged, because I bet you that the timing, context and manner in which Russia moved into Novorussia will not result in further sanctions or political consequences. Russia has now officially declared the Ukie national sovereignty as "over" and the EU will probably not do anything meaningful about it. That, by itself, is a nightmare for Uncle Sam. Furthermore, I expect the Russian to act with a great deal of restraint. It would be stupid for them to say "okay, now that we violated the territorial integrity of the Ukraine and ignored its sovereignty we might as well bomb the junta forces and move our troops in". I am quite confident that they will not do that. Yet. For the Russian side, the best thing to do now is to wait. First, the convoy will really help. Second, it will become a headache for the Ukies (bombing this convey would not look very good). Third, this convoy will buy enough time for the situation to become far clearer. What am I referring to here?
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Yes, indeed. Do read the Statement of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Sergey Lavrov's shop) linked from this article. What Ukraine and the U.S. have been doing to delay humanitarian relief to Lugansk is beyond despicable. And though not dwelled on here, Kerry's State Dept. lodged an outraged demand that the Russian humanitarian aid convoy return to Russia post haste without unloading any of the supplies in Ukraine. Or else. Or else what? The U.S. also exercised its veto power on the U.N. Security Council to block a draft resolution instructing a temporary cease fire for delivery of the relief supplies. Dumbout. Now Russia has officially violated Ukraine sovereignty under circumstances that are beyond reproach. The U.S. has no moral high ground to cry foul; the Russians have all of it. I truly enjoy watching Mr. Lavrov play chess brilliantly while John Kerry steadfastly clings to his belief that the game is checkers. Kerry just can't accept that he's hopelessly outclassed by Lavrov. And that blunt Russian promise to retaliate militarily if Kiev attacks the convoy? That's an announcement that future Russian humanitarian aid convoys into Ukraine will not be delayed or Russia will simply ignore the Kiev government and ride on through the border. Giving credit where it's due, Lavrov undoubtedly coordinated this action with Vladimir Putin.