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Paul Merrell

China Steps In as World's New Bank - Bloomberg View - 0 views

  • Thanks to China, Christine Lagarde of the International Monetary Fund, Jim Yong Kim of the World Bank and Takehiko Nakao of the Asian Development Bank may no longer have much meaningful work to do. Beijing's move to bail out Russia, on top of its recent aid for Venezuela and Argentina, signals the death of the post-war Bretton Woods world. It’s also marks the beginning of the end for America's linchpin role in the global economy and Japan's influence in Asia. What is China's new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank if not an ADB killer? If Japan, ADB's main benefactor, won't share the presidency with Asian peers, Beijing will just use its deep pockets to overpower it. Lagarde's and Kim’s shops also are looking at a future in which crisis-wracked governments call Beijing before Washington. 
  • China stepping up its role as lender of last resort upends an economic development game that's been decades in the making. The IMF, World Bank and ADB are bloated, change-adverse institutions.  When Ukraine received a $17 billion IMF-led bailout this year it was about shoring up a geopolitically important economy, not geopolitical blackmail. Chinese President Xi Jinping's government doesn't care about upgrading economies, the health of tax regimes or central bank reserves. It cares about loyalty. The quid pro quo: For our generous assistance we expect your full support on everything from Taiwan to territorial disputes to deadening the West’s pesky focus on human rights.
  • This may sound hyperbolic; Russia, Argentina and Venezuela are already at odds with the U.S. and its allies. But what about Europe? In 2011 and 2012, it looked to Beijing to save euro bond markets through massive purchases. Expect more of this dynamic in 2015 should fresh turmoil hit the euro zone, at which time Beijing will expect European leaders to pull their diplomatic punches. What happens if the Federal Reserve’s tapering slams economies from India to Indonesia and governments look to China for help? Why would Cambodia, Laos or Vietnam bother with the IMF’s conditions when China writes big checks with few strings attached? Beijing’s $24 billion currency swap program to help Russia is a sign of things to come. Russia, it's often said, is too nuclear to fail. As Moscow weathers the worst crisis since the 1998 default, it’s tempting to view China as a good global citizen. But Beijing is just enabling President Vladimir Putin, who’s now under zero pressure to diversify his economy away from oil. The same goes for China’s $2.3 billion currency swap with Argentina and its $4 billion loan to Venezuela. In the Chinese century, bad behavior has its rewards.
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    Note that this article is in a Bloomberg publication. Is economic reality beginning to dent the MSM propaganda on Wall Street?
Paul Merrell

U.S. urges allies to think twice before joining China-led bank - Yahoo Finance - 0 views

  • (Reuters) - The United States urged countries on Tuesday to think twice about signing up to a new China-led Asian development bank that Washington sees as a rival to the World Bank, after Germany, France and Italy followed Britain in saying they would join. The concerted move by U.S. allies to participate in Beijing's flagship economic outreach project is a diplomatic blow to the United States and its efforts to counter the fast-growing economic and diplomatic influence of China. Europe's participation reflects the eagerness to partner with China's economy, the world's second largest, and comes amid prickly trade negotiations between Brussels and Washington.
  • European Union and Asian governments are frustrated that the U.S. Congress has held up a reform of voting rights in the International Monetary Fund that would give China and other emerging powers more say in global economic governance.
  • Washington insists it has not actively discouraged countries from joining the new bank, but it has questioned whether the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) will have sufficient standards of governance and environmental and social safeguards. "I hope before the final commitments are made anyone who lends their name to this organization will make sure that the governance is appropriate," Treasury Secretary Jack Lew told U.S. lawmakers. Lew warned the Republican-dominated Congress that China and other rising powers were challenging American leadership in global financial institutions, and he urged lawmakers to swiftly ratify stalled reform of the IMF.
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  • In a joint statement, the foreign and finance ministers of Germany, France and Italy said they would work to ensure the new institution "follows the best standards and practices in terms of governance, safeguards, debt and procurement policies." Luxembourg’s Finance Ministry confirmed the country, a big financial centre, has also applied to be a founding member of the $50 billion AIIB.
  • A spokeswoman for the European Commission, the EU's executive arm, endorsed member states' participation in the AIIB as a way of tackling global investment needs and as an opportunity for EU companies.
  • Lew told lawmakers that the U.S. delay in ratifying the agreement was undermining its credibility and influence as countries question the United States' commitment to international institutions. “It's not an accident that emerging economies are looking at other places because they are frustrated that, frankly, the United States has stalled a very mild and reasonable set of reforms in the IMF,” Lew said.
  • Some Republicans have complained the changes would cost too much at a time Washington is running big budget deficits. The reforms have also ran afoul of a growing isolationist trend among the party's influential Tea Party wing.
  • Washington says it sees a role for the IAAB given Asia's immense infrastructure needs and regards it as a potential partner for established institutions like the ADB. But its strategy of questioning the IAAB's standards has drawn criticism from some observers, who say the administration should have been more accepting of the new bank or offered alternatives within the existing institutions. "If you try to fight the rising power's peaceful ascent you sow big problems in the future," said Fred Bergsten, a former top international affairs official at the U.S. Treasury and currently a fellow at the Peterson Institute in Washington. Scott Morris, a former U.S. Treasury official who led U.S. engagement with the multilateral development banks during the first Obama administration, said Washington was paying the price for delay on IMF reform. "It's a clear sentiment among a pretty diverse group of countries: We would like to mobilize more capital for infrastructure through MDBs (multilateral development banks)," said Morris, now with the Washington-based Center for Global Development. "And the U.S. stands in the way of that and now finds itself increasingly isolated as a result.”
  • Japan, Australia and South Korea remain notable regional absentees from the AIIB. Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said at the weekend he would make a final decision on membership soon. South Korea has said it is still in discussions with China and other countries about possible participation. Japan is unlikely to join the AIIB, but ADB head Takehiko Nakao told the Nikkei Asian Review that the two institutions were in discussions and could work together.
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    Oh, man. Angela Merkel just hitched Germany's wagon to China's, which implictly means Russia's and the rest of BRICS too. Plus the European Commission, UK, France, Italy, and Luxembourg   Keep in mind that China will open its RMB trading centers in the major financial hubs in September and that the folks in Brussels are making noises about a European combined defense organization, independent of NATO anjd the U.S.   I want more information to be certain that there is more here than moves to create bargaining leverage with Washington, D.C.. but it might soon be time to buy a wheelbarrow to carry my walkabout spending money. Wow!
Paul Merrell

Abbott to say No to Xi and the New Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank - Twice | nsnbc ... - 0 views

  • Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott is expected to say no to Chinese President Xi about joining the new Chinese-led Asia Infrastructure Development Bank (AIIB) when he will meet Xi at the ASEAN summit in Beijing this week. Abbott’s no to joining the bank would come against the advise of Australian treasurer Joe Hockey and after intense U.S. pressure for Australia to reject the proposed participation.
  • The decision to reject Australia’s participation in the 21 nation regional bank was made during a session of the Australian government’s National Security Committee and was explained as a “decision made on strategic grounds”. The decision has been criticized by several of Australia’s leading experts on economy. The Asian Development Bank  (ADB) estimated in 2011 that Asia would require some US$750 per year through 2020 to meet the needs for regional infrastructure development. In 2012 the ADB merely lent US$7.5 billion reported Australia’s Treasury.
  • A growing number of regional governments including Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Laos, Myanmar and many other are gravitating towards China as China increasingly opens up its economy and banking system for foreign businesses and investment.
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  • Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey repeatedly stressed that Australia’s national interests would be better served by joining the new AIIB while Abbott attempted to position the AIIB as a “unilateral institution”. While it is correct that China is the main investor into the bank, it is a 21 nation project and Abbott’s explanation is given little credence by objective economists who are aware of the inherent problems with U.S. dominance and the dominance of rogue corporate cartels who hold e.g the World Bank, the IMF and the US government in a state of capture.
  • The development gains perspective, considering that the former Chief Economist of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) William White in 2013, and other top-economists are predicting that a collapse of the U.S. dollar and the Bretton Woods institutions has become unavoidable, that it may happened overnight, and that it is likely to happen sometime by the end of 2014 or the first half of 2015. A recent analysis of the development described U.S. pressure against nations’ joining the new Asia Infrastructure Development Bank as the choice between gold and gunfire, noting that the U.S. applies relative soft pressure against Australia, while it won’t hesitate to provoke civil wars in for example Thailand to prolong the (f)ailing new American Century, just a little bit longer.
  • Gold or Gunfire: Hedging Against the Collapse of the Dollar
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