Group items tagged

"The phenomenon of consumer co-creation is often framed in terms of whether either economic market forces or socio-cultural non-market forces ultimately dominate. We propose an alternate model of consumer co-creation in terms of co-evolution between markets and non-markets. Our model is based on a recent ethnographic study of a massively multiplayer online game through its development, release and ultimate failure, and is cast in terms of two explanatory models: multiple games and social network markets. We conclude that consumer co-creation is indeed complex, but in ways that relate to both emergent market expectations and the evolution of markets, not to the transcendence of markets. "

"The Asia-Pacific Conferences on Conceptual Modelling provide an annual forum for disseminating the results of innovative research in information modelling and related areas. The amount, complexity and diversity of information held in computer systems are constantly on the increase, and so are the requirements and challenges to be met for useful access and manipulation of this information. Conceptual modelling is fundamental to the development of up-to-date information and knowledge-based systems. The conference series aims on bringing together experts from all areas of computer science and information systems with a common interest in the subject. "

International Futures (IFs) is a large-scale, long-term, integrated global modeling system. It represents demographic, economic, energy, agricultural, socio-political, and environmental subsystems for 183 countries interacting in the global system. The central purpose of IFs is to facilitate exploration of global futures through alternative scenarios. The model is integrated with a large database containing values for its many foundational data series since 1960. Through this web site IFs is freely available to users both on-line and in downloadable form.

"The last year I presented TEFMIBO in Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology - PICMET 2012. This research shows a methodology for technology foresight in order to achieve better implementation and to overcome its problems. With Technological Foresight Model for the Identification of Business Opportunities, I intend to provide a tool to support managers and entrepreneurs to improve the decision making process that address the future of their business."

Provides insight + surprising solutions for the dramatic field of peri-urbanisation in Europe Introduces innovative tools for planners, scientists and lay-persons allowing to integratevily analyze the impact of peri-urbanisation onto sustainable development Has unique maps showing EU-periurbanisation effects on a pan-European level Has a conclusive didactic approach + text structure (e.g.  inserts, boxes ...) Presently, peri-urbanisation is one of the most pervasive processes of land use change in Europe with strong impacts on environment and quality of life. Urgently strategies and tools in support of sustainable development have to be developed. The book synthesizes results of PLUREL, a large European Commission funded research project (2007-2010). Tools and strategies of PLUREL address main challenges of managing land use in peri-urban areas. Results will be presented and illustrated through 6 case studies which are at the core of the book. A novel, futures oriented approach to the planning and management of peri-urban areas with a main focus on scenarios and sustainability impact analysis. The book is unique: - futures oriented (e.g. IPCC framework), - links quantitative modeling and sustainability impact analysis with qualitative & in-depth analysis of regional strategies - links study at European level (Nuts 2&3 regions) with case study work - involves a Chinese case study

"Together, they highlight five "technologies that matter" for cities in 2020: mobile broadband; smart personal devices, whether they're dirt-cheap phones or tablets; government-sponsored cloud computing (modeled on the U.K.'s national "G-cloud" initiative); open-source public databases to promote grassroots innovation, and "public interfaces." Instead of Internet cafés, imagine an outdoor LED screen and hacked Kinect box allowing literally anyone to access the Net using only gestures."

"The image below this post comes from the latest IMF working paper (May 2012) looking at the "The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology" (opens pdf) which attempts to take both the models of oil availability - that proposed by geologists and that by technologists and work out what the likely price implications are going to be to 2020. An internal working paper that "does not presume that there is a constraint on how much oil can be taken out of the ground. It prefers to believe that extraction rates will depend on the price that will be able to be charged for the final product", it makes the wonderfully understated point that "the future may not be easy". I continue to be amazed at the number of people I meet, sitting in leadership positions, who are unaware of this issue. I have heard from colleagues of engagements in the past couple of years with groups of senior decision-makers who have refused to discuss the issue as they believe it to be a fringe problem."

The image below this post comes from the latest IMF working paper (May 2012) looking at the "The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology" (opens pdf) which attempts to take both the models of oil availability - that proposed by geologists and that by technologists and work out what the likely price implications are going to be to 2020. An internal working paper that "does not presume that there is a constraint on how much oil can be taken out of the ground. It prefers to believe that extraction rates will depend on the price that will be able to be charged for the final product", it makes the wonderfully understated point that "the future may not be easy". I continue to be amazed at the number of people I meet, sitting in leadership positions, who are unaware of this issue. I have heard from colleagues of engagements in the past couple of years with groups of senior decision-makers who have refused to discuss the issue as they believe it to be a fringe problem.

"Great expectations and a virtual world are among the megatrends changing the role of museums and arts organisations. The megatrends, identified by CSIRO trend analyst Stefan Hajkowicz, are a major shift in the cultural, economic, social, environmental and technological milieu that are expected to radically change the context of everything we do over the next 20 years. Some of the trends go to the very nature of why people come to museums, raising the possibility that museums, galleries and theatres could replace shops as the 'third place' where people congregate. Others will change the processes by which our organisations operate and the subjects on which we focus. Speaking at the Musuems Australia National Conference in Canberra on Shaping the Future of Museums, Dr Hajkowicz said while some changes were 'black swans' - phenomena never seen until a major change of environment - many were more like a 'kangaroo in the headlights', who sees the car coming but remains frozen. He gave the example of Eastman Kodak, which was involved in the development of the digital camera in 1975 but failed to change its business model from dependence on film and filed for bankruptcy in 2011."

"It is much easier to engage with the World System Model through experience and interaction. The IFF World Game provides a way in which the players can engage with the complexity of the global problematique in a fun, non-threatening, interactive and highly creative way. The players may be groups in a business context, community groups, students or individuals seeking to broaden their capacities."

Despite an uncertain global economy and a continually shifting regulatory environment, the top teams at the world's leading banks are starting to plot paths toward growth. With no proven economic model to point to, bankers are attempting to understand the many possible futures they could confront over the next decade. In the industry's first-ever interactive eBook published by Ernst & Young and Knowledge@Wharton, "Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights," banking leaders explore a spectrum of potential scenarios - including some extreme possibilities - that could develop in the coming decade, along with strategies to help global banks thrive.

"Because of the grand nature of this expedition, not only the launch and landing will draw large audiences. In 2013, Mars One will start the selection of the first crews that will train to be able to go to Mars. Unlike the astronaut selection processes at the space agencies, Mars One will open up this procedure for everyone to see. And not only to watch: after Mars One experts have eliminated unsuitable candidates, the audience will have a say in who will be the first humans on Mars. Mars One will make the selection of the first ambassadors to another planet a democratic process!"

" Ask yourself Is your organisation being digitally disrupted? Does your future strategy lack clarity and buy-in? Is your analogue business model ready for the digital future? Do you currently balance the timeless wisdom of your organisation with timely and future-compatible strategies and action? Are your teams inspired by your brand's 2020 Vision? Do your leaders and staff suffer from change fatigue?"

" Consider the disruption that technology has already introduced. The big data company BeyondCore can automatically evaluate vast amounts of data, identify statistically relevant insights, and present them through an animated briefing, rendering the junior analyst role obsolete. And the marketing intelligence company Motista employs predictive models and software to deliver insights into customer emotion and motivation at a small fraction of the price of a top consulting firm. These start-ups, though they lack the brand and reputation of the incumbents, are already making inroads with Fortune 500 companies-and as partners to the incumbents. "

"As Surowiecki explained, certain conditions must be met for crowd wisdom to emerge. Members of the crowd ought to have a variety of opinions, and to arrive at those opinions independently. Take those away, and crowd intelligence fails, as evidenced in some market bubbles. Computer modeling of crowd behavior also hints at dynamics underlying crowd breakdowns, with he balance between information flow and diverse opinions becoming skewed." I thought this might have implications both for Delphi methods in general and for our crowd work specifically.

Limits of probabilistic models 1.4 years if nuclear power expands from today's 440 commercial power reactors to the 1,000

The 100-Year Starship study will examine the business model needed to develop and mature a technology portfolio enabling long-distance manned space flight a century from now.  The year-long study aims to develop a construct that will incentivize and facilitate private co-investment to ensure continuity of the lengthy technological time horizon needed.

"A new model for crowdsourcing predictions called Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES) is transforming the way future events are forecast - combining the collective knowledge of many individual opinions in a unique way that improves accuracy beyond what any one person or small group of experts could provide."

There are two people, and only two, whose ideas must be taught to every MBA in the world: Michael Porter and Henry Mintzberg.  This was true more than 25 years ago, when I did my MBA at USC. These are two academics who have had real impact for a long time.  Part of their success, beyond having big relevant ideas, is due to their clear and concise writing skills (There is certainly a lesson in there for many of us business school academics). Both have been very influential in the study of strategy, an area of considerable interest to many Forbes readers.  You can contrast their two views as Porter's taking a more deliberate strategy approach while Mintzberg's emphasize emergent strategy.   Both are still taught, in fact, I taught Porter's 3 Generic Strategies and his 5 Forces Model not two weeks ago in an undergraduate strategy course at McGill. Which is most useful today?