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Abby Schantz

week 3: Florida's Impact on the Election - 1 views

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    This article talks about the importance for a Candidate to win Florida. In 2008, Obama won Flora by only 3% and four years previous, Bush won Florida by a slightly larger 5%. Because Florida has a total of 29 electoral votes, it is the biggest and therefore one of the most important swing states. Not only that, but the majority of the state does not matter as compared to a small section known as the I-4 who really do determine this election themselves. 
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    I'm curious to follow Romney's and Obama's campaigning in Florida until the election. From my other reading, It seems as though Obama has secured the "minority" votes compared to Romney so wouldn't that continue over in Florida?
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    This is going to be an interesting swing state due to its larger population of senior citizens and with Romney appealing significantly to the senior citizen population with a 52-41 percent lead over Obama according to an associated press-GfK poll with seniors likely to vote.
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    It's interesting to me that it seems that the entire election can come down to one swing state, and the whole state to one county. I think this is a example of why the electoral college isn't right-no one county should have that much power.
Abby Schantz

Hurricane Sandy - which voters won't be voting and what the means for the candidates - 0 views

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    News reports are coming out with information on hurricane sandy and the warnings set out in various parts of the country. It is interesting to see how the different candidates are being and going to be effected by this. It seems from this article that in terms of swing states, Obama is going to be hit harder although Virginia may be tough for Romney with the conservative parts being hit harder. Romney definitely does have a disadvantage with his headquarters in Boston though. I am interested to see how much of an effect on the election this storm has. Thoughts and predictions?
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    I think this storm is a great chance for the candidates to show America how they would run in the case of a disaster. Romney's head quarters are in Boston, which may be hit by a power outage meaning that the would have to find a different way to campaign. I think if Romney manages to deal with his campaigning situation that will be impressive to the American people. I think this as well will be true for Obama. His challenge though would be dealing with the storm in a way that may not seem like he is campaigning.
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    I'm wondering if the storm will affect the voters more than the candidates (eg: making them unable to vote), and in this way it will affect the election. Like Yadira said, though, the storm can be symbolic for many who have experienced it as they think about what really matters in life and what they want America to look like. I would think in the non-swing states, the storm would only make people more enthusiastic about their choice, thinking America is due for a 'rebirth' of some sort, with their preferred leader at the head. And, also like Yadira said, if the storm affects an undecided voter personally, the way in which the president deals with their lives/the governor proposes he would deal with their lives could determine their decision of who to vote for.
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    I think that the storm will make a lot less people vote, especially the undecided voters who the candidates have been trying so hard to sway. However, I think that the voters who are passionately decided will not be affected by the weather.
Sami Perez

Why Obama Is Leading in the Polls - Ronald Brownstein - The Atlantic - 2 views

  • President Obama's lead rests on a surprisingly strong performance among blue-collar white women who usually tilt toward the GOP.
  • Obama is running considerably better than he is nationally among white women without a college education
  • young people, minorities, and college-educated women, these advances among blue-collar women have been enough to propel Obama to the lead over Republican Mitt Romney
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  • blue-collar women have been the principal, and most receptive, target for their extended ad barrage portraying Romney as a plutocrat who is blind, if not indifferent, to the struggles of average families.
    • Sami Perez
       
      how advertisements are affective: showing people the faults of the opposing candidate
    • Sami Perez
       
      how do the specific group of "blue-collar white women" affect the election/the population?
  • "The sheer weight of their advertising, and the shows they targeted that advertising on, it is [aimed at] lower-income, white, working women," said the GOP strategist. "They are being pounded with this stuff."
  • The Obama campaign has heavily targeted its ads on daytime shows that attract a large audience of downscale women
  • minority voters, and then whites divided into four groups: men and women, with and without a college education.
    • Sami Perez
       
      why focus on the white women without education?
  • In most respects, the state results track national patterns, suggesting that demography usually trumps geography in shaping voter preferences. The exception is the blue-collar white women.
    • Sami Perez
       
      because blue-collar white women don't have a trend based on geography or demographic
  • he runs better with these women voters than any other group of whites.
    • Sami Perez
       
      what does Obama's appeal to women say about women's rights/issues?
  • portrayal of Romney as obtuse to the problems of working families
  • he has been hurt among blue-collar women by the skirmishes over defunding Planned Parenthood and access to contraception in health insurance.
  • Many of these women view such women's health matters not as moral issues but as practical pocketbook concerns.
  • while about three-fifths of non-college women agreed that Obama "cares about the needs and problems of people like you" roughly an equal number of them said Romney did not.
  • the non-college, white women are the moving piece of the electorate
  • President Obama, they are dissatisfied with the performance, but they do relate to him on a personal level," she said. "For Mitt Romney, the professional resume is there ... but he's not as personable, or relatable, to them.
    • Sami Perez
       
      the importance of policy vs. the importance of relatability
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    "The president's ad barrage seems to have succeeded in bringing blue-collar women into his coalition -- and boosting his chance at reelection"
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    This article is about how Obama's target audience in his advertising is mainly blue-collar women (middle aged white women without education). It brought up two major questions for me: 1. how important is advertising? It seems to be most affective when criticizing the opposing candidate. 2. how important are women (specifically blue-collar women) in this election? How do women's rights tie into the swing votes/why are many GOP-leaning blue-collar women now leaning towards Obama?
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    I found this very interesting, I normally don't really think of what the midwest's demographic is, but to see that it is blue-collar white women is super interesting. I also think the connection between advertising and the women is really powerful. The ads they are showing are definitely working since much of Obama's supports are their targeted audience.
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    It's funny that they focus on such a specific group. This quote stood out to me: "Democrats say blue-collar women have been the principal, and most receptive, target for their extended ad barrage portraying Romney as a plutocrat who is blind, if not indifferent, to the struggles of average families." The ads all seem to be focused on saying how bad Romney will be for these women, rather than Obama helping them. How can they know that Obama is really right for them if all they know is that they don't like Romney?
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    I liked this quote: "Beyond the opposition's portrayal of Romney as obtuse to the problems of working families, both sides agree that he has been hurt among blue-collar women by the skirmishes over defunding Planned Parenthood and access to contraception in health insurance." It makes sense why these women would want a president who would benefit their health/reproductive needs. Sabrina, I think this is probably one of the main points why they know Obama is right for them and why they don't like Romney.
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    It is really interesting to me how much thought goes into the advertisements. Not only are they thinking about a specific group "the blue-collar women", but also increased numbers in certain states (swing states) ect. I also think it is interesting how much advertising there is. Because we live in San Francisco, we don't see many of the presidential campaign advertisements because we are not a place they should waste money on since it is almost certain they will win our votes. This has made me feel like my vote here does not count and I found this realization with seeing all of the advertisements lately to vote yes or no on a particular proposition for California (the education ones are the two main ads I have been seeing lately) What this tells me is where my vote actually has a sway, or could potentially swing the results, I will be seeing a lot of ads and a lot of money will go into me. Where I don't, I have to go looking to find my information or to be reached.
James Foster

The Swing State of Wisconsin - 0 views

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    This article emphasizes the importance of the toss-up state of Wisconsin and how crucial it will be to this election. This state has been democrat for the last 6 elections, although it has been a close call for the past two elections. Romney's addition of Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, this state will be a true battleground for both parties.
Abby Schantz

Ohio: It's hard to vote and the state officials are working to swing the vote to the re... - 1 views

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    This article talks about the problems with voting it Ohio. It discusses the voting laws that have changed when the state had republican vs democratic secretary's of state. As of now, Obama is ahead with early votes but with the Republicans changing around restrictions and laws making it harder for people to vote they article said that: " the polls could be wrong and the totals could easily be close enough that long enough lines and tossed ballots will make the difference." I find it really upsetting that the article had to say: "Now it's up to the voters to do the only thing they can: Try to vote." It is really sad that it has become hard to vote - it's a right that should be accessible to all.
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    I can't imagine how it would feel to vote in a swing state. With the long lines in Florida and the difficulties in Ohio, it seems exhausting. I'm sure many people are relieved that the election is over with all of the campaigning. Reading this article just brings me back to what seems to be the flawed system of the electoral college. I obviously don't know what is the best alternative, but wouldn't some of this tension be reduced if we had a popular vote system?
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    I agree with Danielle that a popular vote would be fairer, but I'm not sure how it would help in this situation. I think that the electoral college is outdated and no longer works as the best way to implement democracy.
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    It seems though with these law being pass are trying to get the most accurate votes as possible, but is it really fair to create laws where your vote and your voice will not be heard. This article makes these laws seem terrible because it is a trap.
James Foster

North Carolina Blacks for Obama, Key in 2008, are Uncertain in '12 - 1 views

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    This article identifies who Obama needs to focus on in the Swing State of North Carolina, African Americans. They were one of the main reasons that North Carolina sided with the democrats for the first time in decades. After 4 years with Obama's policies, some of these people who were originally very enthusiastic about voting for Obama are now uncertain about this new election. This is a state that could provide a big influence in the election and it will be interesting to follow it and see what happens.
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    This article calls to attention something that I never thought about before: "I guess part of it is that history has already been made." A lot of people who voted for Obama in 2008 may have done so so that they could feel like they were changing history, being a part of the first black president, and now that excitement may have worn off.
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    I saw that too, Sabrina. I think that Obama has to highlight what it means for the African American population if Romney is elected. He can't rely on energy that he generated in 2008.
Will Rothman

BBC News - Barack Obama in Ohio Labor Day campaign stop - 4 views

  • "paying off for America".
  • For far too many Americans, today is another day of worrying when their next paycheck will come."
  • A Gallup opinion poll released on Monday suggested the convention had given the Republicans only the slightest of boosts, with 40% saying they were now more likely to vote for Mr Romney but 38% of respondents describing themselves as less likely to.
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  • He roused the crowd with the familiar slogan: "Osama bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive."
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    Obama is really emphasizing the Auto-industry bailout and the positive outcomes that have resulted from his revenue injection. Also, Romney is gaining ground.
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    Although Obama stresses the positive outcomes from "reviving" General Motive,s I'm wondering why he didn't (maybe it just wasn't discussed in this article) continue talking about the jobs he will create. The unemployment rate is still high despite the Auto-industry bailout and I would think Ohio needs to hear what he WILL do along with what he has accomplished.
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    I think Obama is making a smart move to reflect on the improvements he has made in Ohio, but I agree with Danielle that it's strange that he doesn't mention future progress. He also revisits a risky idea that he mentioned in his DNC speech: that the road to recovery is long and far from easy, and we're just starting.
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    I understand why Obama's campaign continues to focus on their success in the past four years because it is a lot easier for people to pick out the negatives themselves than the positives. That being said, I agree that it is important that he focus a lot on future progress which I think he usually does tend to do.
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    I feel like this speech that Obama made at the car maker factory is similar to what Romney was doing at his stump speech at the oil company. They were both relating to their audience. This makes sense since North Carolina is a swing state. Obama was trying to appeal to them and gain their vote.
Savannah L

Obama-Romney Battle Plans Set for Final Charge - 4 views

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    this article lists each of the factors that are going to decide the last 2 months of the election, including money, debates, and swing states, all of which I expected. However, one factor that I didn't think about is Johnson's influence in the overall election. He seems to be gaining votes from republicans more than democrats, which could harm Romney more than I would have thought.
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    It's interesting to me that which candidate people vote for seems to have nothing to do with ideas or plans for the country, just how much advertising there is. Are people really this easily influenced by advertising? Also, it's funny that they have mock debates, Obama going against John Kerry as Romney. And, Savannah, I was surprised about Gary Johnson, too. I've never heard of him before.
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    I'm really bothers me that "Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney have to build substantial room into their schedules for fund-raising, including more time than they would like traveling to places that are not competitive politically but are flush with wealthy donors, starting with New York and Los Angeles." I don't like how so much of the election is spent raising money rather than making more explicit platforms and addressing important issues.
Savannah L

Romney Strggles to Gain Traction in Battlegrounds - 3 views

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    Overall, this article is very critical of Romney, claiming that Obama is making bigger leads in swing states. Romney is extremely shifty in his views and doesn't make it clear what finances he has planned. Also, this article hints towards the end the slight opinion differences of Romney and ryan which could be very problematic.
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    What I found interesting in this article was Ryan's statement that "You know, it depends on the quality of the agreement," which indicates that his ideals aren't very set and could easily be changed by a convincing argument. Also, this seems to disagree with what Rush Limbaugh said about Obama just giving up. This race is still open to either candidate.
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    What stood out to be in this article was the quote from Charlie Cook saying, "the case for firing President Obama is really pretty obvious, but the case for hiring Mitt Romney is one that has yet to be made." I think this is a really strong point. Romney has made his points of why we should get Obama out of obvious very clear but I think for the remainder of the election it might be a smart move to start convincing people why he should be the replacement.
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    I was struck by the same quote that Sabrina mentioned that "You know, it depends on the quality of the agreement" (Ryan). I think there is plenty of time left in the election and I think Romney will be pushed to clarify his ideals.
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    "sixty days is like sixty years in campaign time" seems like an overplay of hopefulness. I take from this article that Romney's people can only really argue that Mitt still has a chance while Obama's people believe he will more than likely win.
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    Romney really does need to get his act together. Ryan seems to be running the show a little bit more than he should, but with the debates soon to start, Romney will have a little more hope on his side. Also, unemployment has risen from 1.9% through Obama's term, and statistically when unemployment is greater than 7.2 the incumbent doesn't win. The election has even changed drastically since I posted this article: The libyan assassination, the Romney 47% dependent on Government, etc, I do agree that 60 days can seem like 60 years. Romney does have to cover a lot of ground.
Sami Perez

Ohio Unions Face Tough Battle With 'Super PACs' - NYTimes.com - 4 views

  • Conservative “super PACs,” financed with unlimited donations from corporations and wealthy individuals, have saturated Ohio and other battleground states with ads against President Obama.
    • Sami Perez
       
      Relates to reading "What You Should Know About Politics...But Don't." PACs affecting swing states, potentially determining results of election...
  • Republican super PACs are going to outspend Obama massively
  • labor’s true importance will be highlighted
    • Sami Perez
       
      Can the work of the people hold more influence over voters than the money and power of large corporations? 
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  • Some conservatives raise an eyebrow over unions’ claims that they are outgunned in the money game.
  • no Republican in modern times has been able to capture the White House without winning the state
  • — was due in no small part to labor’s get-out-the-vote push.
  • President Obama’s victory in 2008 here in Ohio
    • Sami Perez
       
      Evidence that the election depends on Ohio's stance, and Ohio's stance depends on the ability of the party to persuade voters through media and advertisement
  • anti-Mitt Romney script
  • which asserted that he had played a role in factories that closed, wages that dropped, workers who were fired
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    page one of two
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    I'm wondering how effective knocking on people's doors in the hopes of persuading them towards a particular candidate can be. This strategy seems ineffective from how I imagine the conversation going, if a person even gets a door opened. Also, how I'm curious how many people in Ohio participate in the election?
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    Battling for voters' attention is extremely difficult, especially when the two candidates seem to be saying exactly opposite things. And, in a case like this, money can talk, and the Republicans are funded by a lot of wealthy groups. It seems so frustrating to me that money plays such a huge factor in how people vote, but it some cases, money can demonstrate popular opinion. The more donations a campaign receives, the more money people are willing to invest in that candidate.
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    I think I need to learn more about unions and how exactly they work to gain a better understanding of this article. It's interesting how important a state's votes can be in an election. Talking about the importance of winning over Ohio really stood out to me and how big of a deal that is. It's good that Obama's campaign is able to recognize that they will not raise as much money at Romney and are working to catch up on votes with other means.
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    I'd like to point out here that, while Restore Our Future--the conservative super PAC supporting Romney--has an expenditure quadrupling that of Priorities USA--the super PAC supporting Obama--the influence of corporations and wealthy independent donors has played a major role on both sides in this election [http://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/superpacs.php].
Abby Schantz

An opinionated piece on early voting (specifically in Ohio) - 2 views

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    I warn you now this piece is extremely opinionated but I am interested to hear all of your thoughts on the subject. Scott Paulson, a political commentary for the Examiner is making the claim that the early voting in Ohio is ridiculous and unnecessary. He mentions that a lot can change in 35 days (from when early voting starts to election day) and that it is giving Obama a huge advantage which could potentially win him the state. What are you thoughts on the early voting laws?
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    I am not sure of why someone would want to vote early. If there is no difference or advantage, then what is the use. It is weird though that democrats are pushing to vote early. I mean it does give flexibility to people who are busy a longer period of time for when to vote, but otherwise what is the use?
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    I think early voting is fine, as long as you are sure this is who you want to vote for. I feel like the people who would vote early would not change their minds in the last 35 days. While it does seem strange because there is no huge benefit, I feel that voting early could take a load off people so that they get it over with and don't over think it. It could also spark from enthusiasm. Also, in Will's article, it Obama argues that it helps people have easier access to vote (if for some reason they couldn't vote on election day). Because of this, I see more benefit than burdon from voting early.
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    Early voting is a wonderful democracy inhibitor, just look at how different Romney and Obama were 7 weeks ago, that was before both presidential debates. If they allowed California or Utah to vote early then it wouldn't matter because its not like either of those states are unpredictable or anything, but the fact that it is Ohio makes it crazy, there is no way that swing voters could be expected to make a valid decision considering how eventful the last 7 weeks have been, just look at their precedent in the debates. Of course Obama thinks it will facilitate democracy, it will probably end up in his favor more than Romney's.
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    Savannah, I think that the people who are voting early are the ones who likely aren't going to change their opinions on Obama or Romney based on debates or any "October surprise". Also, I'm interested as to why you think it'd end up in Obama's favor. Wouldn't this suggest that Obama is, in fact, more popular than Romney?
Sami Perez

Ohio Unions Face Tough Battle With 'Super PACs' - NYTimes.com - 5 views

  • The ruling in the Citizens United case and subsequent court rulings opened the door to unlimited corporate and union contributions to political committees and made it possible to pool that money with unlimited contributions from wealthy individuals.
    • Sami Perez
       
      Working around the McCain-Feingold Act
  • unions boast that they will reach a far larger universe of voters than ever in 2012.
  • volunteer
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  • wider audience
  • Many union members are frustrated with Mr. Obama’s performance, having hoped he would do more to reduce unemployment, push for stimulus and infrastructure spending and stand up to Congressional Republicans.
    • Sami Perez
       
      Speaks to the issue of whether or not we are better off now than four years ago. Also proves that this labor is motivated by reason/logic rather than pure partisanship
  • large majority among white working-class workers
    • Sami Perez
       
      political target
  • In July and August alone, forces on both sides of the presidential race spent $43 million on commercials in Ohio, according to Kantar Media/CMAG, with supporters of the Republicans outspending Democrats by $3 million.
    • Sami Perez
       
      What does this mean in terms of how the large corporation donations will affect decisions made by the political leaders they sponsored? 
  • high-tech update
  • social media.
  • In the end, she said, she thought she had swayed perhaps two voters.
    • Sami Perez
       
      How affective can you be without the money/power of a large corporation?
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    It's so frustrating to me that campaigns seem to be all about money. Shouldn't they be about the candidates ideas?
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    I agree that it is frustrating how much a campaign is dependent on money but when I think about it, money is what gives candidates the ability to share their ideas with the most people. Whether or not something just as a TV commercial is more about a candidates ideas or solely bashing another candidiate, the advertisement is reaching a population who may not ordinarily have much interest in the election. Money is what enables candidates to travel around the nation to give speeches ect. So although it is extremely frustrating, money does play a crucial role in even just spreading the candidates ideas.
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    It frustrates me too. It seems that all of the money spent campaigning could go to something much more useful in our government. But I agree with you Abby that for many people, commercials and any media are some of the only exposure that people have to the current election, which is why they are so crucial.
Abby Schantz

Are You Better Off Than You Were 4 Years Ago? - 3 views

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    Obama's campaign is fighting to say that the country is better off than it was 4 years ago in response to Republicans saying otherwise.
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    I'm looking forward to Obama's speech tomorrow night because I'm really curious the tone he will take. I liked the comment a lot in this article that said if he's too optimistic the Republicans will "pounce" and people will think he isn't taking the economic situation gravely.
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    One thing that stand out to me in this article is the idea that both candidates claim to be a champion for the middle class, and say that the other would crush the middle class. It's interesting that while they disagree in many areas, giving power back to the middle class is one that they agree on. I think the biggest mistake in this article is the lack of preparation on the part of the Democrats. "Are you better off?" is a fairly simply question…and one that you shouldn't say no to if you're hoping to reelect the president.
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    This question of whether America is better of now than it was four years ago is really hard to measure. What does better of mean? Obama has been able to accomplish things like kill Osama bin Laden, create obamacare, and stop the war in Iraq. These things that Obama has done make me believe that we are better of.
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    This article really highlights their wars over the middle class and shows different definitions on what is considered to make the country better off. I'm not surprised that both the GOP and the democrats are trying their hardest to make themselves better in the eyes of the middle class, which is the 'swing state' of the financial world. I agree with the republicans completely on this, I feel like 50,000 dollars per citizen in debt, a doubling of our long term unemployment rates, the 40% of every dollar being spent that is borrowed, and that our national debt under him is growing at a rate fast enough to equal our gdp in a couple of months are all overshadowing anything else from obama's presidency. ACA is only going to increase our national debt at the steep price of those it is trying to help, not to mention the wars on terrorism are far from over even though Osama is dead.
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