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According to a new Forrester report, though Microsoft Office continues to be a mainstay both in the enterprise and at home, developing concerns about productivity as they relate to mobile, cloud, and collaboration may bring a shift in enterprise behaviors.

Think mobile data demand is big today, with 94 million smartphone shipped this year and 5 billion mobile subscribers? Well, Cisco ( s csco) says it's going to get a lot bigger by 2015, with worldwide mobile data traffic set to increase 26-fold between 2010 and 2015, reaching 6.3 exabytes per month. That's 75 exabytes annually by 2015 [MIGHT WANT TO THROW IN AND/OR LINK TO A DEFINITION OF EXABYTE]. Last year, I called it the mobilpocalypse, but this year, I'm going to say it's a looming tsunami, driven by everyone's favorite bandwidth hog, web video, and the proliferation of mobile devices. In short, we can blame this wave on Netflix on the iPad.

Is the Open Web Dead?  In this very interesting interview with Wired's Chris Anderson, there is that possibility that Web Apps of the future will be like today's mobility apps; based on carefully controlled and closed platforms that use the Web's reach as transport. excerpt:  I love the web, I hope the web isn't dead, but there is a demonstrable shift in user behavior towards mobile. And mobile brings with it two things: First of all there is a shift towards apps. Mobiles tend to be optimized for apps because of smaller screens ... The other aspect of the web, which was implicit in your question, is the notion of "openness" which is built into the web. And increasingly we see closed platforms that happen to use the web as their transport and display -- sites like Facebook -- which are not open. In the definition we chose, Facebook does not count as the "open web". Your iPad does not count as the "open web," Xbox Live does not count as the "open web". They use the internet as transport and sometimes they use HTML as the display technology and sometimes they render in a browser. By and large, they are not open ecosystems and therefore don't fall into Tim Berners-Lee's original definition of "the web". So I would say there is very much a shift away from the wide-open web to closed platforms. Some of those closed platforms are on mobile, some of them are closed platforms within browsers, but we're definitely seeing a shift -- and frankly it worries me as a consumer but it's a huge opportunity as a producer. So I am conflicted in that respect. I love closed platforms as a way to build a business, but as a consumer I prefer open platforms. That's not hypocrisy, it's wave particle duality if you will, but that's where we are.

.... "I recently described how Google's Wave, a collaboration tool based on the new HTML 5 standard, demonstrated the potential for Web applications to unglue Microsoft's hold on customers. My post quoted Gary Edwards, the former president of the Open Document Foundation, a first-hand witness to the failed attempt by Massachusetts to dump Microsoft and as experienced a hand at Microsoft-tilting as anyone I know......"

Microsoft last week launched its first serious effort to build IT into its cloud plans by introducing technologies that help connect existing corporate networks and cloud services to make them look like a single infrastructure. The concept began to come together at Microsoft's Professional Developers Conference. The company is attempting to show that it wants to move beyond the first wave of the cloud trend, which is defined by the availability of raw computing power supplied by Microsoft and competitors such as Amazon and Google. Microsoft's goal is to supply tools, middleware, and services so users can run applications that span corporate and cloud networks, especially those built with Microsoft's Azure cloud operating system.

new blog at Quora

Really interesting blog from Robert X.  Wealth through productivity vs wealth through accumulation and the important but seriously declining role of IPO's. excerpt: "Big business grows by economies of scale, economies of scale are gained by increasing efficiency, and increased efficiency in big business always - always - means creating more economic output with fewer people. More economic output is good, but fewer people is bad if you need 100,000 new jobs per month just to provide for normal U.S. population growth. This is the ultimate irony of policies that declare companies too big to fail when in fact they are more properly too big to survive. Our policy obsession with helping big business no matter which party is in power has been a major factor in our own economic demise because it doesn't create jobs. Our leaders and would-be leaders are really good at talking about the value of small and medium size businesses in America but really terrible about actually doing much to help. Now here comes the important part: if small businesses, young businesses, new businesses create jobs, then Initial Public Offerings create wealth. Wealth creation is just as important as job creation in our economy but too many experts get it wrong when they think wealth creation and wealth preservation are the same things, because they aren't." ................. The fundamental error of trickle-down (Supply Side) economics is that it is dependent on rich people spending money which they structurally can't do fast enough to matter, and philosophically won't do because their role in the food chain is about growth through accumulation, not through new production. ..............................................

I'm less than convinced that IPOs create wealth, in terms of the aggregate wealth of the nation. Most of the "wealth" created by IPOs goes to the previous owner's of the business, plus whatever speculators can maneuver to acquire through capital gains. But waving the "IPO wand" does not magically boost productivity, business outputs, or business profitability. So if "wealth" is created, it is faux wealth. I think Cringely ventures too far from what the real argument is about: levels of government taxation and creating jobs. Supply Side economics is in reality an argument against taxing the wealthy. But Cringely doesn't even touch on the taxation issue. I also do not agree with his "Steve Jobs created 50,000 new jobs" schtick because he does not take into account how many jobs were destroyed in the process. But modern information technology has unquestionably destroyed more jobs than it has created; the technology never would have succeeded had it not boosted individual productivity to a point that massive numbers of employees could be laid off. For example, remember the days when you could call a business and have a human being answer the phone and direct your call to the right person? That lady doesn't have that job anymore because of voice menu/mail technology. IT is all about doing more with fewer people. In the context of jobs and taxation levels, the fundamental error of Supply Side Economics is not the distinction between wealth accumulation and wealth creation. The real fundamental error is globalism, government policies that create enormous incentives to invest capital outside the U.S. Supply Side Economics simply blinks past that enormously inconvenient reality. To illustrate, let's try remodeling trickle-down economics in a way that has a prayer of producing more and better-paying jobs in the U.S. (Over-simplification warning.) -- The U.S. withdraws from all trade agreements standing in the way and repeals all laws inconsistent with the goal of

NSA as the cause of the next major disruption in the social networking service industry?  Grief ahead for Google? Note the point made that: "It's impossible to do a cloud-based ad supported service" where the encryption/decryption takes place on the client side. 

Of course once the human brain is interfaced with the internet, then we will be able to do the Vulcan mind-meld thing. And NSA will be busily crawling the Internet for fresh brain dumps to their data center, which then encompasses the entire former state of Utah. Conventional warfare is a thing of the past as the cyberwar commands of great powers battle for control of the billions of minds making up BrainNet, the internet's successor.  Meanwhile, a hackers' Reaper malware trawls BrainNet for bank account numbers and paswords that it forwards for automated harvesting of personal funds. "Ah, Houston ... we have a problem ..."  

The new Google documents To get around these problems, the new Google document editor doesn't use the browser to handle editable text. We wrote a brand new editing surface and layout engine, entirely in JavaScript. A new editing surface Let's start by talking about the editing surface, which processes all user input and makes the application feel like a regular editor. To you, the new editor looks like a fairly normal text box. But from the browser's perspective, it's a webpage with JavaScript that responds to any user action by dynamically changing what to display on each line. For example, the cursor you see is actually a thin, 2 pixel-wide div element that we manually place on the screen. When you click somewhere, we find the x and y coordinates of your click and draw the cursor at that position. This lets us do basic things like slanting the cursor for italicized text, and it also allows more powerful capabilities like showing multiple collaborators' cursors simultaneously, in the same document.

Separately, Microsoft and Apple have announced that both company's browsers will boycott VP8 in favor of H264, which is encumbered by more than a thousand patents.. But if VP8 becomes ubiquitous on the Web, that's a hard position to maintain.  

Real-time co-creation and co-editing: With Novell Vibe, people in your organization can author and edit online documents together, character by character, in real time. Teams can dramatically accelerate the completion of projects that used to take weeks. Because collaboration unfolds in a shared workspace, no one has to manually merge content from multiple contributors to create a unified, finished document. Enterprise social messaging: As easy to use as Facebook or Twitter, Novell Vibe consolidates direct messages, chat, blogs and wikis from within Novell Vibe into one message stream. Creating new groups and inviting members from inside or outside your organization is as simple as sending an e-mail. You can even jumpstart ad-hoc conversations in seconds to tackle projects that can't wait. File synchronization and management: Files on your desktop, regardless of authoring application, can be synchronized to the Novell Vibe file repository based in the cloud. As a result, users always work with the latest versions of important files on their desktops and in Novell Vibe. The Novell Vibe unified message stream: Direct messages, social feeds and group conversations from within Novell Vibe are unified in one intuitive interface. This eliminates the need to constantly switch between locations to see all your content. Using powerful filtering, sorting and tagging capabilities, you can determine exactly what you want to see and whom you want to follow. Advanced information management: Novell Vibe keeps a persistent record of all your work and conversations. Its comprehensive search function quickly locates files, messages, attachments, groups and people to save time and boost productivity.

Excellent summary and historical discussion about Microsoft and why they can't seem to compete.  Lot's of anti trust and monopolist swtuff - including file formats and interop lock ins (end points).  Microsoft's problems started with the World Wide Web and continue with mobile devices connected to cloud services.