Open Intelligence / Web 3X (Social + Mobile)

But bubbles can pop with a bang or deflate with a long, slow hiss. There is a growing feeling that an eight-year boom is over. It is one thing when non-tech Neanderthals guffaw at the very idea of Twitter, but quite another when those blessed by the Valley’s recent success worry that the gig is up.

To create a successful tech company, he wrote, “you have to find an idea that 1) has escaped the attention of the major internet companies, which are better run than ever before; 2) is capable of being launched and proven out for ~$5m, the typical seed plus series A investment; and 3) is protectable from the onslaught of those big companies once they figure out what you’re on to. How many ideas like that are left?”

To build a significant tech company in a new space, you cannot be trivial. Yet this is exactly how many start-ups and some big tech companies now feel. Ten of the top 15 paid apps on iTunes this week are games. For all of Apple’s commercials showing people doing clever, scientific-looking things with their devices, most people are using them to play Angry Birds rather than solve the world’s problems.

The highest scoring “influencers” like to think they deliver widespread impact with their followings. Every single book I’ve read by a blogger on influence claims this. In actuality, that influence lies closer to home. When real researchers parse influence we get a different story than the blogger myth propagated by social scoring. Instead, we see that true influence comes from those who are closest to us in our on and offline social networks, our peers.

But generally, their writings serve as a credibility point for readers, just like Consumer Reports, and nothing more. Why? Because relationships — true meaningful interactions beyond social platitudes (Like, love, you rock, etc.) — don’t scale after a certain point.

By selecting our friends, we’re also choosing to be influenced by their ideas, beliefs and behavior systems

the Facebook newsfeed on your mobile phone would deliver to you everything you want to know: what news to digest, what movies to watch, where to eat and honeymoon, what kind of crib to buy for your first born. It would all be based on what you and your Facebook friends liked. Facebook’s algorithms would be refined so that it would all be sent to you — “pushed,” in Mr. Purdy’s words. You wouldn’t have to search for it.

What he didn’t have to say was that in this future world, you wouldn’t need Google. How would Facebook profit exactly? “There is a tremendous amount of value in here because we’re providing the user experience value,” he said. “That means users come back to Facebook. They come back again and again and again. That allows us to show advertising.”

In the fourth quarter of 2011, 22pc of businesses polled in the sector were investing in social media marketing. This figure fell to 8.5pc in the first quarter of 2012 and to 6pc by the second quarter. Pearlfinders, a major business research company, spoke to more than 5,000 marketeers around the world about their budgets. “This represents an interesting about-turn. We saw investment in social media increase steadily throughout 2011, to reach the highest levels ever by the end of the year. However, as financial services brands embraced new methods for communicating with customers, they opened themselves up to criticism and negative sentiment,” said Anthony Cooper, Pearlfinders managing director.

putting spending on hold until they have developed a clearer picture of how social media can be harnessed to improve their brands.”

conversations directly linking to brands near impossible to control