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Contents contributed and discussions participated by evawoo

evawoo

High Finance Backfires on Alabama County - New York Times - 0 views

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    在华尔街banker鼓励下使用复杂金融工具,美国一个阿拉巴马小镇面临破产
evawoo

Should the Fed Buy Securities Outright? - Finance Blog - Felix Salmon - Market Movers -... - 0 views

  • Suppose that the value of the asset the Fed holds falls to zero after the trade. The trade was permanent, so there's no margin call or anything like that - the Fed owns the asset and it is worth nothing. Then, in the end, it is no different than the Fed simply printing that same amount of money and giving it to the banks as new reserves, it is an increase in the money supply.
  • If the central bank, or some other government agency, were to act as Market Maker of Last Resort and buy the impaired asset at a price no greater than its fair value but higher than what it would fetch in the free but unfair illiquid market, such a purchase would not be a bail-out. It would also be welfare-increasing...
  • My feeling is that it's not going to happen, mainly for political reasons. In this particular crisis, the distressed assets the Fed would end up buying would almost certainly be mortgage-backed bonds. But buying up mortgage-backed bonds looks very much like giving money to big banks and investors instead of giving it straight to struggling homeowners: the optics are simply terrible. If the collapse of Bear Stearns is seen as a bailout, this would be much worse. It might be a good idea, but its time
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    看看美国的救市讨论
evawoo

Capital - WSJ.com - 0 views

  • The past 10 days will be remembered as the time the U.S. government discarded a half-century of rules to save American financial capitalism from collapse.
  • In ordinary times, a capitalist economy lets prices -- such as those of homes, mortgage-backed securities and stocks -- fall to the point where the big-bucks crowd rushes in, hoping to make a killing. But if the big money remains on the sidelines, unpersuaded that a bottom is near, the wait for bargain hunters to take the plunge could be very long and very painful.
  • But something big just happened. It happened without an explicit vote by Congress. And, though the Treasury hasn't cut any checks for housing or Wall Street rescues, billions of dollars of taxpayer money were put at risk. A Republican administration, not eager to be viewed as the second coming of the Hoover administration, showed it no longer believes the market can sort out the mess.
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    Ten Days That Changed Capitalism----对于美联储和财政部救市的争议,资本主义已经改变?
evawoo

Chinese Dismayed by Tales of Tibet Violence - WSJ.com - 0 views

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    evawoo

    Behind the Scenes: Unrest tests China PR machine - CNN.com - 0 views

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      tibet tests China's PR machine
    evawoo

    Transcript: James Miles interview on Tibet - CNN.com - 0 views

    • BEIJING, China (CNN) -- James Miles, of The Economist, has just returned from Lhasa, Tibet. The following is a transcript of an interview he gave to CNN. James Miles
    • So in effect what they did was sacrifice the livelihoods of many, many ethnic Han Chinese in the city for the sake of letting the rioters vent their anger. And then being able to move in gradually with troops with rifles that they occasionally let off with single shots, apparently warning shots, in order to scare everybody back into their homes and put an end to this.
    • Well the Chinese response to this was very interesting. B
    • ...7 more annotations...
    • What I saw was calculated targeted violence against an ethnic group, or I should say two ethnic groups, primarily ethnic Han Chinese living in Lhasa, but also members of the Muslim Hui minority in Lhasa.
    • Well we didn't see any evidence of any organized activity, at least there was nothing in what I sensed and saw during those couple of days of unrest in Lhasa, there was anything organized behind it.
    • Now numerous Hans that I spoke to say that they are so afraid they may leave the city, which may have very damaging consequences for Lhasa's economy, Tibet's economy.
    • But their fear now is that Tibetans will blow up the railway line. That it is now actually safer to fly out of Tibet than to go by railway.
    • And also many troops there whose uniforms were distinctly lacking in the usual insignia of either the police or the riot police. So my very, very strong suspicion is that the army is out there and is in control in Lhasa. A
    • I've been a journalist in China now for 15 years altogether. This is the first time that I've ever got official approval to go to Tibet. And it's remarkable I think that they decided to let me stay there and probably they felt that it was a bit of a gamble. But as the protests went on I think they also probably felt that having me there would help to get across the scale of the ethnically-targeted violence that the Chinese themselves have also been trying to highlight.
    • And the authorities were responding to these occasional clashes with Tibetans not by moving forward rapidly with either riot police and truncheons and shields, or indeed troops with rifles. But for a long time, just with occasional, with the very occasional round of tear gas
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    evawoo

    Somewhere: Is what you watch on BBC or CNN the truth? -- about Xizang (tibet) - 0 views

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    evawoo

    RGE - What can not go on forever seems to be going on forever: China's amazing January ... - 0 views

    • I would suggest that China's January reserves data provides an equally compelling case for a reconsideration of the world's global monetary architecture. An international monetary system that requires this kind of official intervention - and likely will lead to more inflation in the emerging world than the emerging world wants and more government ownership of financial assets in the US and Europe than the US and European public wants -- strikes me as hard to sustain for much longer.
    • China added $55b to its reserves. Saudi Arabia added $18b to its foreign assets in January. Those two countries combined to add around $73b to their central banks portfolios. That means that those two countries alone could have supplied the $62.5b a month the US needs to sustain a $750b current account deficit and still had a bit left over to buy euros. Or they could have provided enough money to finance capital outflows from the US along with a current account deficit.It kind of makes you wonder why the US goes through the motions of selling Treasury and Agency bonds on the open market rather than doing direct placements with a few big central banks.
    evawoo

    别忘了产能过剩-孙明春-《财经网》 - 0 views

    • 总需求的强劲增长,无疑降低了产能过剩的严重性。但值得警惕的是,总需求增长中,相当大一部分是投资的贡献。虽然投资需求的增加在短期内延缓了产能过剩的暴露,但随着投资项目的建成投产,更多的产能将会出现,而这显然会加剧今后的产能过剩问题。
    • 由于产出增长过多依赖出口和投资,一旦全球经济出现明显放缓,外需减弱,不但出口行业的产能过剩会明显暴露,而且与出口相关的投资也会冷却。这会通过第二轮的投资减速来进一步暴露产能过剩的严重性。其实,即便没有国外需求的
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      老问题遇到新情况,不妙。
    evawoo

    Market meltdown -谢国忠-搜狐博客 - 0 views

    • What is occurring is the meltdown of the biggest pyramid game in human history.
    • The right course of action is for the US government to establish a Resolution Trust Corporation to take over failing financial institutions, including hedge funds and private equity firms, and leave the Fed to tackle inflation. But a Republican administration could not go to a Democratic Congress for money to capitalise such a corporation. It could not justify spending US$1 trillion to bail out those who deceived investors around the world and destroyed the finest financial institutions in America for their own gains. Instead, the Fed will be called on to save the financial system, boost the economy and suppress inflation at the same time.
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      谢国忠关于美国始发次贷波及各领域金融经济危机的中立叙述
    evawoo

    滞胀世代 (ZT) --我是一个全职外汇操盘手 - 0 views

    • 用最简单的话概括今天的中美贸易关系,就是“我生产,你进口;我贷款,你消费。”由中国出口到美国的,是林林总总、五花八门的人民劳动成果;然而,十多亿人民辛勤血汗交换回来的,不过只是一些纸张、票据,一些没有任何意图或企图实践的“还款承诺”。那些相信“中国威胁论”的人,是否应该把脑袋送去检查检查?
    • 为了保持出口竞争力,中国必须不断增加人民币供应,去吸纳出口商赚回来的美元,再用来购买美债,好让这些美元能够“再循环”到美国。换句话说,美国通过不断发钞和发债去维持高消费,事实上是对中国(及其它贸易顺差国)输出通胀。
    • 一直以来,中国领导人与布什政府的君子协定,就是中方利用贸易盈余大量购进美国国库债券、机构债券(即房屋抵押贷款机构如Fannie Mae等发行的债券)及私营企业债券,为美国提供低息借贷;而总统布什则运用否决权,令国会内的保护主义势力无法得逞。两国领导人之间的默契,明显是建立在互惠互利的基础上。对中国而言,偏低的人民币汇率无疑有助提升出口竞争力,实现高增长和制造就业的目标。对美国来说,消费者既可享用价廉物美的进口产品,也可以获得源源不绝的低息借贷,继续尽情消费。廉价进口产品有助纾缓物价上涨的趋势,而再循环到美国的美元,则有助消弭利率上调压力,带动物业及其它资产升值。
    • ...2 more annotations...
      • evawoo
         
        货币问题才是根本问题。
    • 除了使用调控利率和银行储备要求等货币政策外,中国政府对付流动资金泛滥的办法,还包括发行债券以及利用国企招股的策略抽走资金。可是,利用国企上市集资的方法控制货币流通量,犹如抱薪救火,极可能带来连串反效果,诸如:(一)为既得利益集团提供机会,透过特殊关系进行各种合法或非法的圈钱活动;(二)导致财富分配不均的情况进一步恶化;(三)资产升值造成财富效应,引发物价飞涨;(四)泡沫经济令资源错配及产业结构失衡趋向越来越严重,等等。
    evawoo

    RGE - The great emerging market inflation of 2007 and 2008 - 0 views

    • Those who think inflation is caused by too little pork rather than too much money are wrong.”
      • evawoo
         
        价格上升不止是猪肉或者粮食的事,是货币政策领域的事了
    • As a result, China and the Gulf are importing a very expansionary US monetary policy at a time when their economies are growing rapidly and inflation rates are picking up.
      • evawoo
         
        here's the key
    • The US slowdown and associated series of rate cuts have just made the cost of dollar pegs a lot more visible now
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      中国的通涨是中国人为美国在经济不景气下的扩张财政政策以及联系汇率付出的代价
    evawoo

    FT.com / Lex / Macroeconomics & markets - China's inflationary rhetoric - 0 views

    • Charts mapping investment growth over the five-yearly changes in government show clear spikes when the new guard goes on a spending spree
    • For now, businesses are already grappling with rising production costs
    evawoo

    Hot money IS a concern - 0 views

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      加息还是不加息,在CPI高企的今天,对政策制定者来说是to be or not to be的问题
      目前看来是倾向于要加了。毕竟我们不想看到十几二十年前的物价飞涨昨日重现。
      热钱固然可怕,但是实际负利率带来的资产价格泡沫和银行挤兑恐怕更恐怖。

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